Takumi Kitamura
Analyst · BoA Securities. Mr. Sasaki, please
Good evening. This is Takumi Kitamura, CFO of Nomura Holdings. I'll now give you an overview of our financial results for the second quarter and first half of the fiscal year ending March 2023, using the document titled Consolidated Results of Operations. Please turn to Page 2. Net revenue for the six months to September was JPY617 billion, a decline of 8% year-on-year. Income before income taxes was JPY43.2 billion, down 55% compared to last year. Net income declined 64% to JPY18.5 billion. As shown on the bottom right, three segments income before income taxes was JPY49.7 billion. Market uncertainty continued during the six months period as the yen depreciated rapidly due to monetary tightening and widening of the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. and due to concerns of a recession. Sentiment among retail clients worsened and slow sales of stocks and investment trusts meant flow revenues dropped significantly. Investment gain loss on investment management was negatively impacted by mark-to-market valuations of shareholdings due to worse market conditions and also because the same period last year included revenue contributions from an IPO of an investee company. As a result, both divisions reported lower results compared to the same period last year. However, in both divisions, we are seeing progress in our efforts to increase assets over the medium to long term. Despite the market headwinds, retail recurring revenue and Investment Management business revenue both grew year-on-year. Wholesale performance rebounded during the first six months. Fixed income reported stronger client flows on the back of heightened interest rate and FX volatility, resulting in revenue growth driven by macro products. The absence of losses related to transactions with the U.S. client last year also contributed to improved performance. Segment other was roughly unchanged from last year. An unrealized loss of JPY5 billion was booked due to a decline in share prices of securities held for operating purposes. That concludes the overview of our first half results. In terms of shareholder returns, we announced a half year dividend of JPY5 per share for shareholders of record as of the end of September. Let's now take a look at performance in the second quarter. Please turn to Page 3. All percentage comparisons I mentioned here are quarter-on-quarter. Net revenue was JPY318 billion, up 6%. Income before income taxes was JPY31.5 billion, and net income was JPY16.8 billion, both representing improvements from last quarter. While the market uncertainty had an impact, this performance is far from satisfactory. EPS was JPY5.41 and ROE was 2.2%. Three segment income before income taxes, which represents our core businesses, was JPY31.2 billion, an increase of 69% as investment management, investment gain loss improved. Let's now take a look at second quarter business performance. Please turn to Page 6 for retail. Net revenue increased 2% to JPY72.5 billion, while income before income taxes grew 12% to JPY5.5 billion. As shown on the bottom left, recurring revenue was JPY33.9 billion, up 5% on ongoing net inflows of recurring revenue assets driven by discretionary investments and loans. Disciplined cost control resulted in a recurring revenue cost coverage ratio of 51%, marking the first time it was above 50%. Flow revenue was flat at JPY38.6 billion. Market uncertainty impacted investor sentiment leading to a slowdown in sales of investment trusts and foreign stocks. However, we are making progress in asset consulting. Consulting related revenue, which is included in flow revenue, grew by 25%, driven by insurance, real estate and advisory services. Page 7 shows sales by product. Total sales slipped 2% in the quarter to JPY4.6 trillion. For investment trust, the donation scheme of the ESG fund, Nomura Sustainable Select launched in July, gained support spreading across Japan. And while global equity funds also saw inflows, total sales of investment trusts declined 16% due to weaker investor sentiment. On the other hand, sales of stocks shown in red, increased by 9%. Primary transactions were virtually non-existent and sales of foreign stocks slowed, but sales of domestic stocks grew by over 10% on the back of our market rebound in August and buying opportunity in September as the market turned bearish. Please turn to Page 8 for an update of KPIs. Net inflows of recurring revenue assets shown on the top left as JPY127.9 billion. As you can see on the top right, recurring revenue assets at the end of September had dropped to JPY18.3 trillion, but the quarterly average actually increased and recurring revenue remained resilient after bottoming out in the fourth quarter. The bottom right shows number of services for salaried employees increased to 3.45 million, representing steady progress towards the KPI. ESOP in particular, is growing, and we are seeing cases of ESOPs being transferred to us, given the good reputation of our services and systems. Participant numbers are also increasing as we make various proposals and provide information. Please turn to Page 9 for an overview of the investment management. Net revenue was JPY26.2 billion, and income before income taxes was JPY5.6 billion, both improving from last quarter. Investment gain loss, which has had a significant impact on performance over the past two quarters, improved to negative JPY3.7 billion as ACI related loss narrowed and unrealized gain loss on investee companies of Nomura Capital Partners also improved. Business revenue remained stable at JPY29.9 billion. The asset management business was solid, booking inflows into both the Investment Trust and Investment Advisory businesses resulting in asset management fees similar to last quarter. This quarter, there was no contribution from performance fees due to issues around the timing of calculations. Please turn to Page 10. As shown on the top left, assets under management at the end of September was JPY64.8 trillion, down by JPY800 billion from the end of June due to -- due mainly to market factors. Average AUM for July to September remained higher at JPY66.2 trillion. Net inflows shown on the bottom left was JPY140 billion for the Investment Trust business. MRFs, where individuals park their idle funds, reported outflows of JPY160 billion as these funds were likely used to make new purchases during the market correction. Core investment trust shows inflows of JPY300 billion, and we also booked inflows through the Nomura Securities channel from publicly offered fund investing in U.S. unlisted REIT and the ESG fund. The bank channel and DC funds also reported ongoing inflows. The Investment Advisory business posted inflows of JPY89 billion. In Japan, we booked inflows into alternatives while internationally into equity funds. As shown on the bottom right, alternative assets under management exceeded JPY1.2 trillion and we are making progress in our push into private markets. Please turn to Page 11 for an overview of wholesale performance. Net revenue increased 3% to JPY205.5 billion. Fixed income had a good quarter driven by macro products. Investment Banking performance improved and the weaker yen also contributed. Expenses increased to JPY185.3 billion, while we were able to contain variable costs such as pay for performance bonuses and commissions and floor brokerages. The sharp depreciation of the yen and an increase in various expenses, such as business development led to higher expenses overall. As a result, income before income taxes declined 20% to JPY20.2 billion. Now please turn to Page 12 for an overview of results by business line. Global Markets net revenue was roughly unchanged from last quarter at JPY177.5 billion. Fixed income net revenue increased 3% to JPY115.6 billion. Macro Products had another good quarter with AEJ FX and emerging posting its strongest quarterly revenue in 6.5 years. Spread Products saw a slight slowdown in Securitized Products, while Credit remained solid. Equities net revenue remained sluggish at JPY61.9 billion, amid the ongoing uncertainty. Equity Products revenues were flat while execution services slowed slightly as market volumes declined. Please turn to Page 13 for Investment Banking. Net revenue increased 18% to JPY28 billion. Sustainability related and cross-border transactions contributed to the advisory business, which delivered stronger revenues in Japan, EMEA and AEJ. We worked on multiple private placement transactions, such as for GRIDSERVE Sustainable Energy shown on the top left of the right-hand side. ECM was slow as corporate shied away from fundraising and IPOs, but DCM delivered revenues in line with last quarter as we executed multiple sustainability related to bond issuances. Demand for solutions such as equities, rates and FX is on the rise, reflecting current volatile market conditions. Now let's turn to expenses on Page 14. Groupwide non-interest expenses were roughly flat at JPY286.5 billion. Overall costs were up due to yen depreciation, while other expenses declined by 26% due to lower legal expenses. Page 15 gives you an overview of our financial position. As shown on the bottom left, our Tier 1 capital was JPY3.3 trillion, an increase of over JPY80 billion from the end of June driven mainly by an increase in FX translation adjustment due to the weaker yen. Risk-weighted assets increased by JPY300 billion from the end of June to JPY17.2 trillion. As you can see in the waterfall graph on the bottom right, credit risk increased by JPY300 billion, mostly due to yen depreciation. As a result, our Tier 1 capital ratio as of the end of September was 19%, and our CET1 ratio was 16.8%, both in line with last quarter. That concludes today's overview of our second quarter results. This quarter was challenging given the market uncertainty. But as I said at the start, each of our businesses is steadily moving forward with their strategic initiatives. Retail has started a program sponsored by the Head of Retail and myself, as CFO to improve revenues and revise the cost structure. We have gained an understanding of the detailed strategy and the numbers for each segment and identified areas for cost reductions. We aim to boost revenues through this project. The market uncertainty remained through October, and we are yet to see a full rebound in performance. However, our retail channel is delivering growth -- strong growth in sales of USD bonds in terms of transactions and value through successful product marketing that taps into market movements. In Wholesale, our financing businesses faced a challenging environment, but Macro Products and Fixed Income and our Advisory and Solutions businesses and Investment Banking made revenue contributions. And overall, we were able to benefit from portfolio diversification. We also tapped into volatility around rate and FX, sales of foreign bonds to Japanese institutional investors and investments in yen bonds by international investors both increased from the prior year. In October, we saw a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes and a strengthening dollar, and our trading business was generally slow. But from November, we have several events, including the U.S. midterm election and FOMC meeting, so we see revenue opportunities ahead as volatility returns. While the market uncertainty is expected to continue for now, we will continue to stringently manage risks while providing liquidity and solutions to our clients. Thank you very much for your continued support.