John Kline
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead, sir
Thanks, Rob. It’s a pleasure to address my fellow shareholders for the first time as CEO. I am proud of the business that our team has built over the course of the last 12 years as a public company. We believe that our best days are ahead of us due to the competitive advantages that Rob outlined in his opening remarks. We have industry discipline, a superior underwriting model and proprietary sourcing channels that provide access to many of the best deals in the direct lending market. The outlook for 2023 in the sponsor-focused direct lending market looks positive. While deal flow is down overall, there are pockets of activity where we have the opportunity to make loans at very attractive spreads. Our sponsor clients are particularly active in software, business services and infrastructure services. Additionally, we continue to see good opportunities to make incremental loans to existing well-performing portfolio companies seeking to pursue accretive M&A. Overall, direct lending has continued to increase its share of the financing market as sponsors seek ease of execution, single debt tranches and committed capital for future acquisitions. Deal structures have become more lender-friendly across the board, characterized by attractive spreads, higher fees, lower leverage and more robust documentation. In general, sponsor equity contributions have remained generous, consistently representing 60% to 80% of the enterprise value of the company. Page 12 presents an interest rate analysis that provides insight into the positive effect of increasing base rates on NMFC’s earnings. We have updated this page to provide more clarity into the impact of increasing base rates on our portfolio as well as the timing of that impact. As a reminder, the NMFC loan portfolio is 89% floating rate and 11% fixed rate, while our liabilities are 58% fixed rate and 42% floating rate. Given this capital structure mix, we are long LIBOR and thus have material positive exposure to increasing rates. Despite being positively exposed to increasing base rates, there is a lag in the flow-through of higher rates for two reasons. First, our borrowers can choose to delay the impact of rising rates by selecting 3-month or 6-month SOFR contracts; and second, many of our liabilities reprice at more rapid intervals. The result in Q4 was that we realized an average base rate on our assets of 3.6% which was 40 basis points lower than the average rate on our liabilities. This temporary mismatch caused a $0.02 per share headwind during the quarter compared to a hypothetical scenario where base rates were 4% on both assets and liabilities. SOFR base rates have now risen to nearly 5%, which should generate a material uplift in earnings, all else being equal. Turning to Page 13, we present more detail behind the $0.18 decline in our book value this quarter. Starting on the left side of the page, we show that credit-driven fair value changes positively impacted NAV by $0.02 per share from Q3 to Q4. As Steve mentioned earlier, the overall decrease relates to fair valuing, well-performing names based on higher market spreads as of 12/31. It is important to note that if we were to value all of our green rated loans at par and keep the balance of the portfolio at current fair value, our book value would be $13.81 compared to our actual NAV of $13.02 at 12/31. While the timing is hard to predict, we believe that NMFC’s book value will benefit from these higher quality names converging to par. Page 14 addresses NMFC’s long-term credit performance since its inception. On the left side of the page, we show the current state of the portfolio, where we have $3.2 billion of investments at fair value, with $58 million or 1.8% of the portfolio currently on non-accrual. We had no new non-accruals this quarter. NMFC’s cumulative credit performance shown on the right side of the page remains strong. Since our inception in 2008, we have made $9.9 billion of total investments, of which only $347 million have been placed on non-accrual. Of the non-accruals, only $79 million or less than 1% of our total investments have become realized losses over the course of our 14-year history. As shown on the next page, default losses have been more than offset by realized gains elsewhere in the portfolio. The chart on Page 15 tracks the company’s overall economic performance since its IPO in 2011. As you can see at the top of the page, since our initial listing, NMFC has paid approximately $1.1 billion of regular dividends to our shareholders, which have been fully supported by over $1.1 billion of adjusted net investment income. On the lower half of the page, we focus on below the line items where we show that since inception, highlighted in blue, we have a cumulative net realized gain of $21 million, which is up $5 million from last quarter. This cumulative realized gain is offset by $89 million of cumulative unrealized depreciation on our portfolio, which increased this quarter by about $15 million largely driven by valuation changes previously discussed. On the bottom of the page, in yellow, we show how cumulative net realized and unrealized loss stands at just $67 million, which remains a tiny fraction of the $1.1 billion of net investment income we have generated since our IPO. As we look forward, our team remains very focused on reversing the small cumulative loss and maintaining best-in-class credit quality throughout the portfolio. Page 16 shows a stock chart detailing NMFC’s equity returns since its IPO over 11 years ago. Over this period, NMFC has generated a compound annual return of 10%, which represents a very strong cash flow-oriented return. Over the last 12 months, NMFC’s performance has compared favorably to most equity indexes and has materially exceeded that of the high-yield index as well as an index of BDC peers that have been public for at least as long as we have. Moving on to origination activity. In Q4, we originated $94 million of new loans in our core defensive growth verticals, including software, financial services and consumer services. We primarily funded these originations with repayments, keeping us fully invested at the high end of our leverage range. Turning to Page 18. We show that our asset mix is consistent with prior quarters where slightly more than two-thirds of our investments, inclusive of first lien SLPs net lease and net lease are senior in nature. Approximately 8% of the portfolio is comprised of our equity positions, the largest of which are shown on the right side of the page. Assuming solid operating performance and a supportive valuation environment, we believe these equity positions could continue to increase in value and drive book value appreciation. We hope to monetize certain of these equity investments in the medium term and rotate those dollars into cash-yielding assets. As an example, we expect our common equity ownership in Haven to be fully realized over the next two quarters. Page 19 shows that the average yield of NMFC’s portfolio remained flat from 11.3% in Q3. Spreads remain wider and the supply/demand imbalance in the market continues to favor lenders, which helps support our net investment income target. Page 20 highlights the scale and credit trends of our underlying borrowers. As you can see, the weighted average EBITDA of our borrowers has increased over the last several quarters to $138 million. While we first and foremost concentrate on how an opportunity maps against our defensive growth criteria and internal New Mountain knowledge, we believe that larger borrowers tend to be marginally safer, all else equal. We also show the relevant leverage and interest coverage stats across the portfolio. Portfolio company leverage has been consistent over the last three quarters. Loan to values continue to be quite compelling, and the current portfolio has an average loan-to-value of just 41%. From an interest coverage perspective, we have seen modest compression as base rate rise. The weighted average interest coverage on the portfolio declined slightly to 1.9x from 2.1x last quarter. We do expect interest coverages to move lower in 2023 as SOFR contracts reset at today’s rates. Based on sensitivities that we have run, interest coverage at 5.5% SOFR implies approximately 1.6x coverage based on LTM EBITDA. However, we believe the earnings growth profiles of the companies in our portfolio created a valuable offset to this negative trend. Finally, as illustrated on Page 21, we have a diversified portfolio across over 100 portfolio companies. The top 15 investments inclusive of our SLP funds account for 39% of total fair value and represent our highest conviction names. I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Shiraz Kajee, to discuss our current portfolio construction and financial results. Shiraz?