Rob Hamwee
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you, Steve. While our key quarterly highlights and our standard review of NMFC are detailed on pages seven and eight respectively, this quarter, I would like to focus my time on getting into more detail on the crisis’s impact on asset quality, net asset value and leverage migration, liquidity and net investment income. As detailed in Page 9, in order to assess how the crisis is impacting our borrowers in the last eight weeks, we have had extensive conversations with both company management and sponsors. Based on those discussions, we have assigned each portfolio company scores on two metrics to generate an overall risk rating. The first metric, COVID exposure, rank from one to four, the degree to which a company has been directly impacted by COVID. The second metric overall company’s strength is a combination of three sub metrics, pre-COVID business performance, liquidity and balance sheet strength, and sponsor support, which we rank on a scale of A to C. Based on our ranking for the two metrics and the resulting risk rating for each company, we then plotted the overall portfolio accordingly to create the risk rating heat maps you can find on Pages 10 and 11. The heat maps chart out the COVID exposure on the X-axis, ranging from least impacted on the left to the most impacted on the right against the overall company’s strength on the Y-axis, ranging from highest quality at the bottom to the lowest quality at the top. The circles represent the size of the exposure in that quadrant, which are color coded to reflect the overall risk rating. With green being the least risk, followed by yellow, orange and then red. Both heat maps are for the 331 portfolio with the only difference being Page 10 utilizes 12/31 pricing to show our exposure pre-crisis, while Page 11 use 3/31 prices to show our current exposures. As you can see on Page 11 over 90% of the portfolio is rated green or yellow and only 6% of the portfolio is red. I'd like to give a little more detail on a few of the yellow, orange and red quadrants. Starting with 3C, you can see four of our previously restructured companies we have discussed in the past Edmentum, UniTek, National HME and PPVA, while each is only modestly impacted by COVID given the prior restructuring they by definition have weaker balance sheets and no remaining third-party sponsorship. The other major yellow quadrant 1A is almost exclusively comprised of retail healthcare, specifically dental care, eye care and dermatology practices. These businesses are heavily impacted by COVID in the short and medium term as many of their office locations are closed, but they all have solid balance sheets, significant liquidity to fund operating losses and debt service even in a very lengthy virus driven shutdown and well-capitalized sponsors behind them with very significant cash equity investments, comprising over 50% of total capitalization. Moving on to the more significant orange quadrant 1B, we find a similar story to 1A in terms of primary retail healthcare exposure with the only significant difference being modestly less liquidity and balance sheet strength, but still enough to get through all but the most draconian scenarios and still with a strong sponsorship behind that. Finally, in Tier 1C, in the upper right hand corner, we have our most impacted companies. Once again, retail healthcare with the largest exposure, with two material dental businesses representing $96 million of the $99 million total. We expect one of these two borrowers to go on partial non-accrual in Q2 and restructure. Despite that, given New Mountain's expertise as a sponsor in dental and our access to top tier operating and managerial talent and the expectation that even in a severe recession following the pandemic people will still want and need to get proper dental care. We believe there is reasonable potential for a full-recovery in this investment. Beyond retail health care, the other two names in red are our legacy previously restructured energy service name, Permian and Sierra Hamilton. The collapse in energy prices and oil patch activity has significantly impacted these business models and we have decreased valuations accordingly. One final point, of the $239 million with current risk-ratings of orange and red, all but $15 million are in first lien loans. Page 12 attempts to describe what we believe is to a significant degree a temporary decline in net asset value, driven largely by market spread movement and comparable company valuation, not underlying credit problems, $99 million or roughly half of the quarter’s net asset value decline is yield driven price movement in our green and yellow rated loans, which if our risk assessment is correct should recover over some period of time as the world normalizes. Even in our orange and red current securities representing another $30 million of potential NAV recovery. While risks are clearly elevated, we would expect the significant majority of those to continue to pay full interest in principle. Finally, of the remaining roughly $75 million value change in previously and prospectively restructured securities. The bulk of the value change is an Edmentum, UniTek and Company Q, while results remain – while risk remain for these businesses in this environment there's also ample opportunity for value recovery. Page 13 shows, how the decline in NAV this quarter somewhat offset by a modest reduction in statutory debt as we took initial asset sale action beginning in March translate into what we believe to be a temporarily elevated leverage ratio. While, future asset values are difficult to predict given market driven inputs into our evaluation process, we are taking and will continue to take meaningful steps to get back down to our target leverage ratio of 1.2 to 1.3 as soon as practical. In terms of liquidity, as you can see on Pages 14 and 15, we currently have approximately $130 million of cash in the immediately available liquidity and based on visible repayments and net interest income, less are expected Q2 to dividend, that balance is expected to grow to approximately $150 million by early July. This liquidity is available to support the needs of the business going forward, which primarily include one, further unfunded revolver in delayed draw term loan draws, which have largely abated in recent weeks. Two, incremental needs to support portfolio companies. And three, any need to support the borrowing base of our credit facility. If needed, we have multiple ways to generate incremental liquidity in the weeks to come. We maintain a healthy and transparent dialogue with the credit rating agencies and our leverage providers who continue to be supportive partners. Page 16 compares the debt outstanding on our three credit facilities with the fair market value of the assets that support these facilities, giving a sense of the credit enhancement embedded in each facility. It further shows the risk rating percentages for the asset pools, and as you can see the underlying collateral is largely composed of loans to what we believe to be strong companies that are expected to be only modestly impacted by Code. While our first priority in this crisis has been to focus on our assets, liquidity and leverage, we also want to continue to maximize net investment income, while preserving enterprise safety throughout the current prices however long it may last. Page 17 gives a bridge from our Q1 net investment income of $34 million or $0.35 per share to our current Q2 preliminary estimate of $26 million to $30 million or $0.27 to $0.31 per share. You can see the largest decrease in NII is from prepayments and asset sales, which we believe are prudent in this period of uncertainty, followed by lower projected fee income in an environment characterized by de minimis origination and repayment activity. Lower base rates also modestly decreased NII as the current and anticipated non-accrual. While the first three factors are likely to remain earnings headwinds during the length of the crisis, we should moderate and ultimately reverse and become tailwind whenever the environment begins to normalize. With that, I will turn it over to John Kline to discuss market conditions and other elements of the business. John?