Kevin Keyes
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Good morning, everyone. On our last earnings call in November, I ended my introductory comments by saying something has got to give. I was referring to the unsustainable, excessive valuations and record low levels of volatility in the broader markets at the time. Now that some chaos has begun to surface, our market has seemingly rediscovered these same indicators I was talking about a couple of months ago for the first time in years. The VIX Sharpe ratios and various valuation methodologies of risk versus lower risk assets have now been discussed daily and at ad nauseam. So rather than focusing on the causes and measurements of this sudden activity, I'd prefer to take a more in-depth look into the meaning, impact and opportunities this new bull market of volatility presents for Annaly. The recent shocks clearly highlight the relative valuation discrepancies of asset classes and structures in almost every market, which is a healthy occurrence. For instance, the return of volatility not only quickly depreciated the value of high priced equities, the highest risk asset classes, but more importantly for Annaly, the fundamental shift has begun to reverse the long-term credit curve flattening that had occurred between most lower and higher risk fixed income asset classes. Although you'd never know it reading the mainstream press or even most fixed income research, volatility in the equity markets has spilled over into the credit markets, which have yet to bounce back to the same extent as equities. In fact, the effective yield on high-yield bonds has increased by nearly 100 basis points since October to a 14-month high, with half of that increase coming in the last month alone. Additionally, CDS on non-investment grade credit post last Thursday at its widest level since December of 2016. It's also significant to note that the underperformance of higher-risk assets and the subordinate debt instruments in the capital stack has persisted across the CMBS, CRT and ABS markets. The volatility in risk assets has in part been triggered by rising interest rates as long-end rates over 50 basis points higher year-to-date, steepening the $0.02 treasury yield curve, nearly 40% in a matter of a month, a development we welcome. Agency MBS has not been immune from the volatility, however, ahead of this sell-off, we opportunistically raised capital in the fourth quarter and again in the second week of January, increased our hedges and lowered leverage to mitigate the impact to our book value. We entered this higher rate environment with a much healthier convexity backdrop for Agency MBS than the last time we saw such a risk off move in both the rates and credit markets. And our current team is significantly more effective in hedging the risk mortgage investors face today than before. We've anticipated and talked about momentum investing, a catalyst for much of the run-up and asset prices over the last few years not lasting indefinitely. This conservatism is a primary reason we've been increasing our liquidity profile adding origination partners and optionality across our four businesses and enhancing our financing and hedging instruments to best prepare us for a more volatile and challenging marketplace. The combined effect of these initiatives has been our ability to demonstrate core earnings of $0.29 to $0.31 over the last two years despite the Fed hiking the target rate 5 times over the same period. In fact, Annaly's fourth quarter 2017 core ROE of 10.7% represents a larger premium versus the spread on the high yield index today than it did before the first fed hike. A comparative level of 760 basis points versus 550 basis points in December 2015, signaling that our return has not contracted nearly as much as other yield-oriented alternatives. What also needs to be measured during these times of upheaval in addition to relative valuations is how the relative liquidity and structure of certain vehicles factors into performance. Passive ownership of the equity in high yield universe through the less liquid exchange traded and risk parity funds contributed to the sharp and convergent selling of these asset classes, resulting in record outflows last week. Annaly, by contrast, has strong institutional sponsorship, superior trading liquidity and our beta of 0.5 is lower than every single industry sector in the S&P 500, helping to shield our shareholders from the volatility of the broader marketplace. Also Annaly's average daily trading volume is currently 18 times the median mortgage REIT, 9 times the median yield stock of which we measured about 400 of them and a 100 times that of an equity ETF of which there are 1,473 in the US each with a median market cap of only $108 million. Our high trading liquidity and low relative beta have been undervalued for the past couple of years in the commerce market since 1928. But now, with the VIX last week touching a level of four times its recent historical average, investors, seeking stability and attractive risk-adjusted returns, should more easily recognize the value of a liquid, high margin, low beta vehicle, which owns underlying assets predominantly traded in the second most active market in the world. As I first stated years ago, one of our overriding mantras here is that volatility equals opportunity. The first quarter of 2018 is shaping up much like the first quarter of 2016, when the decline in oil prices triggered to sell-up across the higher risk equity and credit markets, creating the opportunity for us to make the $1.5 billion acquisition of Hatteras Financial amid similar volatile market conditions. Certain market participants today are still not equipped nor prepared for the recent market challenges and turmoil. Companies operating in a single asset class with a lack of liquidity, excessive leverage and a high fixed operating cost, have typically suffered in performance and valuation during these testing times. While we are not isolated from market challenges, we are poised to be opportunistic as the disruption in the market favors the largest, most diverse and liquid participants. Annaly will continue to be a consolidator, especially in environments like these. Finally well before ESG became a more popular acronym, we have been highly focused on all aspects of corporate governance, since my role transitioned a few years ago. In November, we announced the addition of two independent directors, Vicki Williams and Katie Fallon, both with experience that is diverse and complementary to our existing Board members. Also, since I became Chairman at the start of the year, we have refreshed the members on each of the Board committees and named new Board committee chairs. We've added a new public responsibility committee to oversee and drive our socially dedicated initiatives, including our joint venture with Capital Impact Partners, which is now fully invested as of the fourth quarter. Also in the fourth quarter, we initiated a firm wide women's interactive network and as the most recent endorsement of our corporate culture, Annaly was named as one of only 103 companies in the US to the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index, following a year in which we hired and promoted talented female leadership, which now makes up over one-third of the company's senior management. Lastly, under our employee stock purchase plan, our executives voluntarily increased their ownership commitments and holdings in the fourth quarter and now 100% of Annaly's officers, 45 people in total, own stock, stock not granted for them but rather shares they've purchased, with their own after tax dollars in the open market. Now, I'll turn it over to David to expand upon our investment activity and outlook.