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NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, Sep 24, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to NIKE, Inc.'s Fiscal 2020 First Quarter Conference Call. For those who want to reference today's press release, you'll find it at http://investors.nike.com. Leading today's call is Matt Friend, CFO NIKE Operating Segments and Vice President, Investor Relations. Before I turn the call over to Mr. Friend, let me remind you that participants on this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in the reports filed with the SEC, including the annual report filed on Form 10-K. Some forward-looking statements may concern expectations of future revenue growth or gross margin. In addition, participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, including references to constant-dollar revenue. References to constant-dollar revenue are intended to provide context as to the performance of the business eliminating foreign exchange fluctuations. Participants may also make references to other non-public financial and statistical information and non-GAAP financial measures. To the extent non-public financial and statistical information is discussed, presentations of comparable GAAP measures and quantitative reconciliations will be made available at NIKE’s website, http://investors.nike.com. Now I would like to turn the call over to Matt Friend, CFO Operating Segments and Vice President, Investor Relations.

Matt Friend

Management

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss NIKE, Inc.'s fiscal 2020 first quarter results. As the operator indicated, participants on today's call may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. You will find the appropriate reconciliations in our press release, which was issued about an hour ago, at our Web site investors.nike.com. Joining us on today's call will be NIKE, Inc. Chairman, President and CEO, Mark Parker; and our Chief Financial Officer, Andy Campion. Following their prepared remarks, we will take your questions. We would like to allow as many of you to ask questions as possible in our allotted time. So we would appreciate you limiting your initial questions to two. In the event that you have additional questions that are not covered by others, please feel free to re-queue and we will do our best to come back to you. Thanks for your cooperation on this. I’ll now turn the call over to NIKE, Inc. Chairman, President and CEO, Mark Parker.

Mark Parker

Management

Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. Many of you know Matt. I'd like to welcome him to his first call as he takes on the responsibility of Investor Relations. And then of course on behalf of the whole team, I’d like to thank Nitesh for his partnership over the last several years. Turning to the results, we feel very good about our performance in the first quarter of fiscal year '20, growing revenue 10% on a currency neutral basis. It was a quarter that proved the depth and balance of our complete offense, building on the strengths of our foundational business drivers and capitalizing on the untapped dimensions of our portfolio. For the quarter, this is reflected in the broad-based growth in all geographies, led by our international business, which grew 16%; in double-digit growth in our women's business off the back of an incredible summer of celebrating female athletes; in both footwear and apparel with our strong lineup of innovation and style which continues to feed the growing consumer demand for comfortable athletic product; and in digital which grew a very strong 42% showing the power of more personal relationships with the consumer. Mobile continues to lead the way and within mobile, app experiences are fueling the most growth. And while this trend has held true in our own channels for some time, we’re beginning to leverage our digital experiences with our retail partners. As we set out to do, we’re creating a differentiated marketplace for NIKE by scaling our learnings and best in class experiences with our partners. The key to expanding our competitive edge continues to be our total commitment to the consumer through the consumer-direct offense. We’re focused. We’re investing in our brand in key markets and we're accelerating in the high growth dimensions of our…

Andy Campion

Management

Thank you, Mark, and hello to everyone on the call. First, I want to take a moment to personally thank Nitesh for his incredibly valuable partnership and leadership over Investor Relations as he now transitions into a new and expanded set of responsibilities. And I also want to welcome Matt to his first call as he expands his responsibilities to include leadership over Investor Relations. In Q1, we came out of the block strong with our results meeting or exceeding the expectations we set 90 days ago on every dimension. Most notably, we delivered currency neutral revenue growth of 10%, 150 basis point of gross margin expansion, EPS growth of 28% and high expanding returns on invested capital. Those are extraordinary numbers, but what we're most excited about is the quality of our performance. Our financial performance in Q1 reflects exceptional strategic execution by our teams around the world. We continue on our relentless drive to transform how NIKE serves consumers. There are three key themes that really stand out when we reflect on Q1. One, the strategic transformation of NIKE continues to be the fuel for accelerating broad-based growth across our global portfolio. Two, this transformational growth is not happening by accident. Our targeted investments are extending our competitive advantage. And three, while the geopolitical and macro environment is increasingly volatile and in some respects unpredictable, consumer sentiment for the NIKE brand remains incredibly strong and consistent around the world. Let’s go a bit deeper on these three themes. First, strategic transformation is driving our broad-based global growth. When it comes to creating value for shareholders it all starts with growth. And as Mark has said, when it comes to grow, at NIKE it all starts with product. NIKE is bringing innovative new product to market at an unrivaled…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim. Your line is open.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Hi, guys. Good afternoon.

Mark Parker

Management

Hi, Bob.

Andy Campion

Management

Hi, Bob.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

I guess the question I have is – two questions really. On the first part of it is in North America, can you talk a little bit more about the apparel performance in terms of some success in women’s but just generally the level of growth and sort of how we should approach that? And the second question is just around the inventory levels, any pockets of concerns there, any areas geographically that you’re concerned about or anything we should think about from that perspective?

Mark Parker

Management

Sure. I’ll start on North America apparel. We continue – you asked about women’s in particular, we continue to grow the women’s apparel business in North America. It’s in fact growing at a very strong rate. At the same time we see great opportunity ahead, even greater than we’ve capitalized on to date. Overall, in terms of apparel growth, we’re really pleased with the growth. The number in Q1 does compare unfavorably to some prior year comps. As you may recall last year in Q1, apparel in North America grew 8% and that was in part impacted by the jersey business relative to the NBA. As you may recall, LeBron changed teams last year and that had some impact. We also were seeing this year back-to-school extend a bit out of Q1 and into our Q2. So in short we see really strong demand for our apparel in North America. We’ve had a little bit of pressure on supply but you’re going to see the rates of growth in North America apparel accelerate over the balance of the year. And then you asked about inventory. I guess I’ll take that one too. Inventory as we spoke about was up 12% versus prior year. That was primarily driven by strong consumer demand. A majority of our inventories in new seasonal product, some of which is in transit to the marketplace and we’ll sell in to the marketplace and sell through over the quarter and into Q3. There was also a little bit of an impact from foreign exchange in that inventory number. So if you look at it on a unit basis, our unit inventory growth is really well aligned with our forward-looking unit growth. And kind of combining those two themes, one, the fact that it’s largely seasonal inventory and, two, that the overall unit numbers are aligned with what you’re seeing and you would expect and hope to see is that our closeout mix is low and it is in fact very low. So our inventory is very healthy in our geographies. There are a couple of other dynamics that are probably worth calling out. One, again, is this extended back-to-school season. So you see some of that inventory now selling through as back-to-school extended into September, which is in our Q2. And then we also have been building inventory in anticipation of Singles’ Day on 11.11 in China. So the punch line is we feel great about the inventory that we have on hand and it’s reflective of the strong demand for the brand.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Great.

Mark Parker

Management

Thank you. Operator, next question.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jamie Merriman with Bernstein. Your line is open.

Jamie Merriman

Analyst

Thanks very much for all the color on the call. The first question is with respect to North America and you talked about the decision to purposely ramp down some of those – not strategic partners in the market. Can you talk about how those plans play out for the balance of 2020 and how we should think about that? And then can you just give us an update on how you’re thinking about some of those strategic partners, specifically with e-commerce on whether you have an update on partnerships with Amazon, Jet, partners like that and what you’ve seen so far? Thank you.

Mark Parker

Management

Hi, Jamie. I’ll take the first question relative to North America. As you may recall from our call 90 days ago, we highlighted that we were going to have some year-over-year comparison dynamics in North America. So I’d start by saying we’re right on plan in North America. We’re really pleased with the growth that we’re seeing in that geography. We still see that geography as sustaining strong healthy mid-single digit growth. You’ll see slightly higher growth rates in North America over the balance of the year than what we delivered in Q1 and of course remember not all percents are created equal. A point or two of growth in North America is a pretty significant impact. And then again I think I touched on this a little bit with respect to Bob’s question. The growth in Q1 was slightly impacted again by some year-over-year comparisons not just in the jersey business but also the timing of innovation launches in footwear and then again with that kind of extended back-to-school season spanning over Q1 and into our Q2, which begins in September. So again, we see tremendous momentum in North America. You also asked about the distinction between NIKE direct differentiated consumer experiences and undifferentiated consumer experiences. That is really a tale of two cities. We are seeing strong in fact accelerating growth in NIKE digital. We’re seeing high-single digit growth in differentiated retail with our strategic partners. And we’re seeing an expected in fact somewhat intentional and deliberate decline in undifferentiated retail and the drivers of that are how we allocate product and where we put our retail investment dollars. So we would expect that trend to continue in the short term. Of course, long term our goal is we have reshaped this marketplace to one in which we’re connecting much more directly with NIKE consumers and members through NIKE direct in our strategic wholesale partners. So again, we’re on plan in North America. The brand’s extremely strong and really excited about the opportunities ahead including in those areas we consistently touched on; digital, women’s, core footwear below $100 which is touched on in apparel.

Andy Campion

Management

Let me touch on the second question you had on the digital partnerships. Obviously, digital growth is driving much of NIKE’s overall growth and that’s importantly obviously for direct but also the digital base business with our partners both wholesalers who are expanding their growth through the digital channel as well as digital platforms. We don’t have anything new to update you on in terms of Amazon. So far the work with Amazon, the relationship has gone well. The business is performing well that is, so nothing new to report there. We continue to sort of analyze that relationship and the other opportunities we have from a platform partnership standpoint. It’s really critical that our platform partners are actually serving our members or serving our consumers at the highest level possible so that means sort of seamless interaction, frictionless experiences in terms of commerce, looking at an environment where they know that they’re buying authentic NIKE products and ultimately just to better know and serve our consumers. So those are things that we expect from our digital platform partners. We feel really good about our partners in Europe and in China and then also growing through the digital channels here in the United States with partners like Instagram through social media, just getting on Jet so there’s lots of opportunity ahead there. So this will be an important part of our growth going forward. And I should mention – I failed to mention one of our biggest most successful partners here is in China and that’s Tmall. So tremendous relationship there, continues to add energy to the brand as well as help to drive our business in China.

Mark Parker

Management

Okay. Operator, next question.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Paul Trussell with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Paul Trussell

Analyst

Congrats on a great quarter. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to touch base on the gross margin performance. Perhaps you could just walk through a little bit more detail on the spread versus your original estimates, how we should think about the supply chain impact in 1Q and how that will affect the balance of the quarters as well as what were the drivers behind the lower than expected markdowns and what is the impact in 2Q of tariffs, color on that would be helpful? Thank you.

Mark Parker

Management

Sure. Thanks, Paul. I will first walk you through some of the impacts or drivers as you said in terms of the spread versus our guidance. So as compared to the expectations we said 90 days ago, 150 basis points significantly exceeded those. I’d say, first, I would touch on higher growth and favorable mix in our international geographies; second, higher growth in our NIKE direct business and again both of those are I would say over-indexing growth versus the plan we had 90 days ago, so strong momentum in those dimensions of our business versus plan. And again, our international geographies are higher margin geographies than North America and our NIKE direct business is a higher margin business than the wholesale business. You asked about lower than expected markdowns in our factory store business, I’d say that was most pronounced in Europe. In Europe, we’ve really just had extraordinary separation. You’ve seen strong double-digit currency neutral growth in Europe for quite some time. We’re taking share and our brand’s just incredibly strong in all of our key cities in Europe. So frankly our markdowns were much lower than we had planned there and in some other areas of our business. Not only we planned for the quarter but then you’d expect in a typical quarter. You also asked about the impact of tariffs. Tariffs will impact Q2 through Q4. Now again, we guided to slightly improved overall gross margin even taking into account those tariffs, but the impact is more pronounced in Q2. As you know they were announced in August and implemented on September 1. That doesn’t give us much time to manage any of the levers within our overall portfolio. As we look out to the balance of the year, there are a lot of levers within our portfolio. We’ve managed them over time. We’re a big proponent of free and fair trade and that’s because tariffs have always been part of the financial equation in NIKE, so with a little bit of time we have a lot of levers we can work with from sourcing to other levers. So the impact of tariffs is most significant in Q2. And then as you likely inferred from our guidance, we expect slightly greater gross margin expansion in Q3 and Q4 as compared to Q2.

Paul Trussell

Analyst

I really appreciate that color. My quick follow up is just regarding the product pipeline. You spoke about a lot of the exciting platforms that are delivering results for you already. Just curious if there’s a way that you could maybe rank for us your excitement or how you think about the platforms and new areas of innovation that will drive these strong high-single digit revenue gains over the balance of the year as we think about Joyride and Air Max now moving to 200, what you’re doing in women’s, just any color on that would be helpful? Thank you.

Mark Parker

Management

Yes, absolutely. The excitement meter is very high over this next year. We sort of look at the Summer Olympics as term papers due and so we’re – this is the time when we bring our best work not only from a brand standpoint but certainly from a product standpoint. And in this case both performance-based innovation that actually leverages into sport style or sportswear, so we feel like the portfolio of innovation or the pipeline of innovation is more complete. I always talk about the complete offense and that’s how we line up innovation is against our complete offense. You mentioned women’s. I would include core in that, more accessibly priced innovation coming particularly in the spring/summer seasons. We’ve got incredible again sportswear. We’ve good performance up in here for a long time at NIKE and some of the most incredible breakthroughs in performance coming for the Tokyo Olympics building on some of the great platforms that we’ve learned how to leverage more completely. That includes the cadence of the innovations, how we manage the lifecycle of innovations and how we again leverage that across multiple categories both in performance and sportswear. So incredibly high level of excitement. I would add we’ve talked about adapt. It’s still in the early stages. NIKE Fit will include both the powered adaptive systems as well as non-powered hands free systems and that’s incredibly exciting as we bring innovation to more – make innovation more accessible to more people. Women’s of course will continue to be a high priority. We’re shifting resources to amp up our innovation agenda there, feel really good both footwear and apparel. Kids I mentioned is an incredible category to leverage the innovation that we have more completely across the portfolio, so that’s a major source for us for growth as well. So I think the opportunities ahead are as bright as I’ve ever seen them, so very bullish.

Paul Trussell

Analyst

Sounds like --

Mark Parker

Management

Okay. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Omar Saad with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Omar Saad

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on another great quarter. I wanted to ask my first question, another follow up on North America. The 30% DTC growth obviously that’s a huge number, a smaller piece of the business. We talked about that still kind of being offset by the intentional reduction and undifferentiated of the wholesale. If we think about when DTC – kind of the time horizon looking out when the DTC just to become a material mover for the overall North American market or you get to a point where you’re happy with kind of the wholesale footprint. And then I have another follow up for Mark as well. Thanks.

Andy Campion

Management

Yes, Omar, we at our Investor Day a couple of years ago talked about our business being 30% or greater digital, owned and partnered over the next five years. That’s a global measure of success, but I would say North America is in that same range in terms of the [indiscernible]. So we see digital alone not necessarily all of NIKE direct, but digital alone being in that range. And as we’ve discussed we see that continuing to build beyond that and potentially accelerating towards that date based on the incredible momentum that we’ve had. As I noted, that was an accelerated level of growth in NIKE digital in Q1. So much like we discussed at our Investor Day two years ago, our view is that over the next five years, sustainable profitable growth in North America would equate to a mid-single digit range of growth. But what we’re really excited about is we think the next five years in North America is building the platform for the long term future. North America is the marketplace where the most reshaping and transformation is required and frankly is underway.

Omar Saad

Analyst

Got it. And then stepping back, I don’t think and watching the different components of the company perform year-after-year or quarter-after-quarter, I’ve never seen such consistent positive performance across categories, regions, price points, channels, age groups, genders. Maybe help us understand – NIKE obviously performed exceptionally in the past, but maybe if you can help us understand or give us some insight into why that kind of broader platform seems to be performing so much more consistently than it has historically? Thanks.

Mark Parker

Management

I think we’re actually a lot smarter about how we – not only where we invest in terms of new product innovation but as I said we better leverage that innovation across multiple categories and then up and down the price point spectrum across genders. Again, I was fixated on complete offense and it’s one of those areas where you go no matter how well we’re doing across all those dimensions, we see more opportunity areas where we have – we are underpenetrated where we have what we call outsized opportunities. We’ve talked about apparel. We’ve talked about women’s, digital, international as examples. But even in our foundational business I think we’ve got tremendous upside ahead in terms of core. Striking that right balance across the complete portfolio or the complete offense as we call it is never ending challenge for us or opportunity, let me put it that way. So the innovation that we’re putting out there I think we’re just getting better at how we’re leveraging that across the entire offense. And I feel like this has always been a competitive advantage for NIKE as the source of brand energy but also tremendous growth for us and I’ve never seen or been at NIKE during a period where there’s such robust and strong innovation that’s relevant to consumers across the portfolio. That said, I’d be the first one as people here at NIKE would tell you to say that we have a lot more opportunity. So the challenge or the opportunity is to focus on the things that matter the most. We have unlimited opportunities. The fixation or the focus on the things that are really going to drive the needle from a consumer standpoint that are really going to be relevant and ultimately drive growth is what creates success.

Andy Campion

Management

And Omar I’d just add maybe from a framework perspective or framing of how you might think about it, our key categories in our 12 key cities and our 10 key countries are really the where in terms of growth opportunity is for NIKE. The consumer direct offense is the how and it applies to all of those categories, all those cities and all those countries and that’s about doubling the cadence and impact of innovation, being faster to market so that’s 2x speed and then being more directly connected to consumers. And there isn’t any dimension of our offense, the complete offense that Mark refers to, that isn’t [indiscernible] can be positively impacted by those strategic principles. And then of course the overarching or maybe you’d say underlying fuel is this digital transformation of NIKE, it’s impacting everything we do from how we create product to how we assess demand and plan supply all the way through to consumer services through the NIKE app that are now not just in our digital offerings but in our retail stores and increasingly in our partner doors. So it’s really a strategy the consumer racked off in the sense of that, impacting every dimension of the portfolio.

Mark Parker

Management

Yes, I want to put an exclamation point on that. The digital capabilities that we’re creating and investing in are really going to make us a better innovation company understanding the consumer, serving the consumer, leveraging the innovation that we invest in, it’s all making us better. I see so much more opportunity from advancing our digital capabilities going forward. Okay. Operator, maybe we have time for one more call.

Operator

Operator

Our last question is from Jim Duffy with Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Your line is open.

Jim Duffy

Analyst

Thank you. Thanks for squeezing me in. A couple of questions from me on the gross margin. Andy, as we think about gross margin in the context of historical performance, you’ve got pricing power afforded by innovations, structural shifts from outgrowth of direct, you’re reshaping the North American marketplace and then some more nuance factors that can help margin like leveraging Celect and NIKE Fit and so forth. Is there a reason to think that NIKE gross margin shouldn’t go past peaks in the near future? It seems like a lot of good things are coming together.

Andy Campion

Management

The short answer is no. I think many of the drivers you mentioned and some others are long-term drivers of expansion in margin. NIKE direct is a significantly higher margin business than the wholesale business and as we just touched on as part of Omar’s question, we see digital and direct being increasingly larger part of our business long term. The price value equation is also an opportunity to expand margin. And as Mark just touched on, we’ve never been more excited about the innovation pipeline we’re bringing to market and that means bringing tangible value to the consumer. In your own question you touched on a huge opportunity. At our Investor Day we talked about the potentially significant impact from having a greater mix of full-price sell through and lower markdowns and closeout, and Celect is just spot on in terms of the capabilities that we had planned to build organically but are now able to start leveraging, thanks to this acquisition and drive that. If I was to tell you the one thing that we’re not as pleased about are the FX headwinds that have impacted us. As I touched on, on the call over the last four years we’ve had about $3 billion headwind on revenue and $1.5 billion more headwind on profitability. Of course, if we could add this back we would. That would be a pretty significant expansion in our operating margin that’s more reflective of what we’re doing from an operating perspective. But again, the short answer is yes. We see some pretty systemic drivers of gross margin expansion over the short, medium and long term.

Jim Duffy

Analyst

And then as it relates to FX and gross margin, to what extent are more favorable hedge rates a positive contributor to gross margin in the first quarter and fiscal '20?

Andy Campion

Management

Yes, the way I would think about FX in fiscal year '20 is we came into the year expecting FX to be sort of neutral to slightly favorable. It’s now a net negative from an EBIT perspective. Again that’s in the context of our slightly improved guidance, so we are thrilled that our operational performance just continues to be so strong that it’s offsetting that. Over the balance of the year one thing to keep in mind is it’s somewhat difficult to predict – not to predict but to model the impact of FX. You have very volatile actual spot rates. Certainly the Renminbi is at the top of the list in that regard of late. The timing of our hedges over the course of the year as well as the timing which is kind of backward looking timing aspect in terms of when we lock in product costs. So I think that the easiest way for me to say it is, FX will be about 3 points negative headwind on revenue as I spoke about in my guidance. It will be a slightly negative impact on margin over the course of the full fiscal year and it’s now shifted to a slightly negative impact from an EBIT perspective.

Mark Parker

Management

We’re hopeful that those are more transient impacts. And that as we go forward and we get more certainty with respect to trade and some resolution that maybe we see things turn from a headwind into a tailwind. Okay. Thank you, Jim, and thank you everybody. Thank you for joining us on the call today and we look forward to speaking to you next quarter. Take care. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect.