Earnings Labs

NiSource Inc. (NI)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 19, 2013

$48.26

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2012 NiSource Earnings Conference Call. My name is Carissa, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Glen Kettering, Senior Vice President of Corporate Affairs. Please proceed.

Glen L. Kettering

Analyst

Thank you, Carissa, and good morning, everyone. On behalf of NiSource, I'd like to welcome you to our quarterly analyst call. Here this morning are Bob Skaggs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Smith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Randy Hulen, Managing Director of Investor Relations. The focus of today's call is to review our financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2012 and to provide a business update. We'll then open the call to your questions. At times during the call, we'll refer to the supplemental slides available on nisource.com. I'd like to remind all of you that some of the statements made on this conference call will be forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements. Information concerning those risks and uncertainties is included in the MD&A and Risk Factors section of our periodic SEC filings. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Bob Skaggs.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Thanks, Glen. Good morning, and thanks for joining us. For today's agenda, first and foremost, we'll review another year of strong performance. Our 2012 highlights reflect the continued strength of our strategy, as well as our team's proven ability to execute on that strategy and build shareholder value. We'll also update you on more recent accomplishments and ongoing initiatives. And finally, we'll discuss our 2013 financial outlook and key commitments. We'll also have plenty of time for your questions. Let's start on Slide 3 in the supplemental deck that was posted online this morning. As we noted in this morning's release, 2012 was yet another year of disciplined execution across all facets of our business strategy. As you know, that strategy is anchored by a deep and growing inventory of infrastructure-focused capital investments that generate significant value for our customers, shareholders and other key stakeholders. For the sixth year in a row, our team's execution of that strategy generated earnings growth squarely in line with our guidance, and for the fourth consecutive year, it produced total shareholder returns that outperformed the utility indices. Specifically, NiSource generated non-GAAP earnings of $1.46 per share, well within our guidance range of $1.40 to $1.50 per share, and strong year-over-year growth of more than 10%. We also generated total shareholder return [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please standby. Your conference will resume momentarily. You may proceed.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

We apologize. Dreaded glitch, our phone was obviously disconnected for some reason. In any way, we apologize. And let me just go back to the performance, financial performance for 2012, and I'll begin the narrative at that point, we'll just carry on. Again, we apologize. NIPSCO generated non-GAAP earnings of $1.46 per share, well within our guidance range of $1.40 to $1.50 per share, and strong year-over-year growth of more than 10%. We also generated total shareholder return of approximately 8.5% and increased our dividend for the first time in more than a decade. That strong momentum has continued in 2013, as earlier this month, our stock price reached a 10-year high. As I noted, the foundation of NiSource's success over the last several years has been the team's demonstrated ability to execute on our inventory of infrastructure-focused capital investment opportunities. In 2012, those capital investments reached nearly $1.6 billion. Over the balance of the call, I'll discuss how we are continuing to enhance and expand that investment portfolio which will produce a record capital investment program of about $1.8 billion in 2013. Many of you may recall that we outlined key elements of NiSource's elevated investment strategy at our 2012 Investor Day last September. In particular, we identified and expanded inventory of accretive infrastructure investment opportunities for the next 2 decades totaling $25 billion to $30 billion. Those opportunities will drive an annual capital investment run rate of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, sustainable annual earnings growth of between 5% and 7% and an annual dividend growth rate of between 3% and 5%. You may also recall that we emphasized that we would fund our enhanced program in a balanced fashion and we would religiously guard our investment-grade credit rating. By way of an update, we are well on…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Faisel Khan of Citigroup.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

It's Faisel from Citi.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Sorry about the glitch.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

No, no, that's pretty -- we've heard it all, so there's no problem at all. On the -- a couple of things. First on the Gas Transmission and Storage business, I know you guys talked about it in the press release and you talked about it in your prepared remarks, the other revenue credit category grew quite substantially year-over-year in the quarter. Can you just go into a little more granularity in terms of what was in that number so we get a better idea of how this is going to kind of move going forward?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Hey, Faisel, just to be clear in the question, you're talking about the other revenue category for 2012?

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Yes, fourth quarter 2012.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

You have a big number in the other revenue category. And I think you described it as the royalty revenue and all the stuff that's going on in some of the midstream business, but maybe I'm wrong.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

It's actually a FERC tracker that relates to the purchase and sale of incidental gas on the system. And I believe that the acronym is OTRA, but it's a tracker that just goes in and out of revenue.

Stephen P. Smith

Analyst

And it's offset in O&M, so there is no net benefit.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So then where does all the gathering and royalty revenue and all those sort of deals show up then?

Stephen P. Smith

Analyst

It would show up in the transmission segment, in demand and commodity revenues, for example.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes.

Stephen P. Smith

Analyst

If you look year-over-year, the transmission segment increased its revenues, net revenues by approximately $28 million or so, and that's where the midstream activities would reside.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

And new projects and midstream activities.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Sure, I understand. Okay. And then on the test wells you guys talked about in the joint venture, can you give us any sort of update on what those wells came up with? Was it dry gas, liquids? I mean, what are you guys looking at?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes. The gasses -- the gas is wet. We're not going to disclose specifics on flow rates and the like, but it's high gas, about 1,200 BTU. And we've said in the past that it's about 6 GPM, and that continues to be representative of what we're seeing in the test wells.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Is it liquids component? Is it condensate, or is it NGLs?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

NGLs.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, all right, understood. And then on the reversal of Columbia Gulf, what is part of the line, we've seen the Columbia full pricing versus Henry Hub pricing kind of come pretty close to parity. Your reversal doesn't come online till 2014. I'm just wondering if you can give us any sort of idea of how you think basis is going to move over the next -- in the next 12 months or so until your reversal comes online. Do you expect the pricing in the Marcellus area to get the disconnect from the rest of the market? Or do you expect to still trade at parity or premium to Hub?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes. I just really can't give you a good sense on price. My crystal ball is not that good. What I can say is the team continues to explore opportunities to optimize Columbia Gulf, and that includes moving gas from north to south. And so you'll continue to see us prospecting along those lines, and the West Side project is a great example of what we're going to continue to try to do.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And last question from me. You mentioned that you're changing the name of natural -- the name of the Natural Gas Transmission group back to Columbia Gas Transmission. Is there anything we should read into that besides branding? I mean, is this...

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

No, purely branding. The marketplace has always considered Columbia Gas pipeline, TICO, Columbia Gulf, and so we're just going to leverage what's a well-established brand in the market.

Faisel Khan - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So there's no -- there's nothing here that would be a precursor to naming of another company or a subsidiary of the company or anything like that?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

No, no. No, don't read anything else into it.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Carl Kirst of BMO Capital Markets.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Just on the FERC approval of the Columbia settlement, were there any modifications? Or was there any couching language that they put out there? And I asked that in the sense that as we look 5 years down the road, we'll be re-upping this basically be just commercial, essentially, for FERC? Or was there any kind of regulatory reticence at all?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Carl, you broke up at the very end, but let me begin at the first part of your question. The order is absolutely clean. There was some language about providing guidance on how to package settlements, but that was FERC discussion as opposed to point on our transaction or our agreements. So very, very clean, without condition. And then I think you asked about re-upping the settlement after the initial 5-year term. And clearly, that's our intent. We're going to have to execute the program efficiently and work with our customers and other stakeholders closely. But the settlement provides us the opportunity to renew, and that's what we intend to do.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Great. No, no, you answer that. Sorry, I broke up there. The second question is really on Cameron Access, and understanding that it's early days. I'm not sure if there's any framework as far as our book ending of investment potential, but -- that could be done. Or if not, should we be thinking about this in a sense of basically a lateral pipeline off of Columbia Gulf? Or could this be a larger project for instance, embedding kind of an upsized West Side Expansion, where we're taking more gas form Marcellus?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

For Cameron Access, think of it the way you described it as a lateral of Columbia Gulf System. And we're not at a point to provide book-ins on the amount of investment. We just make the observation that we tend to go for singles and doubles and bite-size projects, and leave it at that.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst

Great. And then last question, if I could, and this is just more on NIPSCO, and very much appreciate the legislative update with Senate Bill 560. And I think last time we spoke in December, you didn't seem to kind of get a sense if there was any big critical mass of opposition developing in the House. Is that still a fair statement? Or as we've gotten closer to it, has anything -- an opposition emerged from that?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Well, I'll just say it's the legislative process, Carl. The Senate passed the Bill 37,13, so a very healthy margin. We do believe that there is good support for the legislation in the direction of infrastructure in Indiana.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon of KeyBanc.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

What did the retail business contribute in '12, the business that was sold to AGL?

Stephen P. Smith

Analyst

Paul, this is Steve. Approximately $0.03 a share.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And how many -- you spoke of encouraging results. How many wells were drilled?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

We had handful of test wells being drilled. We're bringing online 2 production wells, and we're in the process of drilling 2 production wells. And when I say we, Hilcorp is actually doing all of that.

Paul T. Ridzon - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And any update for plans on the second cryo plant you have an ups on?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

No update at this point. We're still bullish and optimistic about phases 2 and 3 of Pennant, but it's just too early to provide any specificity around timing, size and that sort of thing.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Edwards of Credit Suisse. John Edwards - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Just real quick. I take it the year-over-year lower volumes on Columbia Gulf, that's because of the growing production up in the Marcellus?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Also weather. Really warm weather conditions in 2012, so that, too, had an impact. It was not trivial, I would add. John Edwards - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And then okay, similar -- I guess, similar for the lower wholesale electricity sales? The reason why I'm asking because it looks like -- on the weather, it looked like this year wasn't as cold as last year. I mean, it was a little bit colder than last year, excuse me, at least, on the Columbia Gulf thing. So I guess -- I mean, you are having pushback from going production in the Northeast, correct?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Oh, yes. Oh, sure. We're seeing the impact of Marcellus on the Columbia Gulf volumes. And I mentioned earlier, that's why the team continues to look at opportunities to optimize Columbia Gulf and move gas north to south, and the West Side Expansion is a good example and the team pursues other opportunities. John Edwards - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And then, I'm sorry, and then on the wholesale electricity sales, those were down. Is that a weather issue also? Or...

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes, we're going to have to get back to you with specificity around that. Frankly, I don't track it that much because it's just not a big part of the business. But it could be a variety of factors. And we'll have to ask Randy to provide that detail.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman of Morningstar.

Charles J. Fishman - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

On Senate Bill 560, what came out of the Senate? Is that -- does that address generation and distribution? Or was that trim down coming out of the Senate?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

It's primarily T and D sort of investment opportunities, as well as natural gas and in particular expansion of gas, natural gas service to rural areas or underserved portions of Indiana.

Charles J. Fishman - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So this would be a tracker that would emulate like the gas tracker pipeline?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes. Modernization investments and transmission distributions, storage, natural gas, rehabilitation and the like. That's what the tracker is designed to promote those sorts of investments. Legislation also provides for future-looking test year, statutory deadline to deal with rate cases, things like are included in the legislation as it currently is drafted.

Charles J. Fishman - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And it's now going to the House?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes, the bills will cross over from the Senate to the House and vice versa in March.

Charles J. Fishman - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then you mentioned an AC cycling program. Is that one of these programs with the smart thermostats?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes. For the most part, it is.

Charles J. Fishman - Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And who owns those? Do you? Or is that something that can go into rate base or not material?

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Yes, we own those. And by the way, they're not material to the overall investment opportunity, very small program.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Skaggs for closing remarks.

Robert C. Skaggs

Analyst

Thank you. And thanks for everyone participating this morning. Again, we appreciate your interest and your support. Have a good day. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.