Earnings Labs

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 20, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Jessica Thiessen, Vice President, Treasurer for Natural Grocers. Miss Thiessen, you may begin.

Jessica Thiessen

Management

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Kemper Isely, Co-President, and Richard Helle, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, certain information provided during this conference call, including the company's outlook for fiscal 2026, contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including the risks and uncertainties detailed in the company's most recently filed forms 10-Q and 10-Ks. The company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. Our remarks today include references to adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP measure. Please see our earnings release for a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to net income. Today's earnings release is available on the company's website and a recording of this call will be available on the website at investors.naturalgrocers.com. Now I will turn the call over to Kemper. Thank you, Jessica.

Kemper Isely

Management

And good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased with our fourth quarter performance with sales in line with guidance and diluted earnings per share above guidance. On today's call, I will highlight our financial results, including performance drivers, and provide an update on our key operational initiatives. Then Rich will discuss our fourth quarter results in greater detail and review our fiscal year 2026 outlook. Our fourth quarter sales were in line with guidance. Daily average comparable store sales increased 4.2% and on a two-year basis increased 11.3%. The moderation in fourth quarter sales comps compared to the third quarter was driven by several factors. We cycled 7% comps in each of the fourth quarters of the previous two fiscal years. As previously disclosed, UNFI's June 2025 cybersecurity incident constrained UNFI's ability to fulfill orders and distribute products to our stores and had a direct impact on our sales in June and July. Additionally, uncertainty in the economic environment has persisted and we saw consumer behavior shift toward more cautious retail spending in the fourth quarter. Over the past several years, we have focused on operational execution, including refining targeted promotions and store productivity initiatives. That ongoing effort combined with expense leverage from higher sales resulted in an operating margin improvement of 90 basis points for the fourth quarter, driving our fiscal year 2025 diluted earnings per share to a record $2 per share. We are proud that fiscal 2025 represented another year of record sales and earnings. Additionally, fiscal 2025 was our twenty-second consecutive year of positive comparable store sales growth. Consumers continued to be drawn to our differentiated offering of high-quality natural and organic products, reflecting their prioritization of health and wellness, including food and nutrition. We believe that consumers' prioritization of health and wellness will prove to be…

Richard Helle

Management

Thank you, Kemper, and good afternoon. We are pleased with our fourth quarter results. Sales were in line with expectations, and diluted earnings per share exceeded our outlook. Net sales increased 4.2% from the prior year period to $336.1 million. Daily average comparable store sales increased 4.2% and on a two-year basis increased 11.3%. Comps were at the lower end of our guidance range, which we believe primarily reflects the shift in consumer retail spending. Our daily average comparable transaction count increased 2.4%, and our daily average comparable transaction size increased 1.8%, primarily due to annualized product inflation of approximately 2%. Items per basket were relatively flat year over year. In consideration of the broader macro environment, we continue to monitor consumer trends closely. We continued to see the greatest sales growth in our most differentiated offerings, including meat and dairy. These are often considered premium offerings because our product standards include humanely and sustainably sourced meat, pasture-raised and non-confinement dairy, and a minimum standard of free-range eggs. We saw a modest decline in the number of transactions using SNAP EBT in the fourth quarter. SNAP represents approximately 2% of net sales, and the reduction in SNAP transactions was immaterial to our overall sales comp for the quarter. Gross margin decreased 10 basis points to 29.5%, driven by lower product margin. Store expenses as a percentage of net sales decreased 90 basis points, primarily driven by lower long-lived asset impairment charges and expense leverage. These culminated in a net income increase of 31% to $11.8 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.51. Adjusted EBITDA increased 7.7% to $24.4 million. Briefly touching on the full year results, in fiscal 2025, total revenue increased 7.2% to $1.33 billion. Our daily average comparable store sales growth was 7.3%, and 14.3% on a…

Kemper Isely

Management

We expect modest inflation throughout the year in line with current trends.

Richard Helle

Management

Our outlook anticipates that year-over-year gross margin will be relatively flat, primarily depending on the level of promotional activity. We expect that year-over-year store expenses as a percentage of net sales will be relatively flat to slightly lower. Lastly, we are investing approximately $0.12 of diluted earnings per share in new store openings, primarily through higher preopening expenses and store expenses.

Kemper Isely

Operator

We continue to believe that we have significant opportunity to achieve sustainable long-term growth due to our alignment with consumer trends, strong customer engagement through our nPower Rewards program, expansion of the Natural Grocers branded products, existing store productivity initiatives, and investment in new store unit growth. In closing, we had a solid quarter to conclude a record-setting fiscal year. We are confident in our ability to continue to drive profitable long-term growth and enhance value for all stakeholders. Now we'd like to open the line for questions. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster. Our first question today comes from Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. Nice quarter.

Kemper Isely

Operator

Thanks, Chuck.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

Given the increased price sensitivity right now in the consumer environment, and the company's 8.8% own brands penetration, is this a good time to get that number higher and to make customers more aware of the value in the Natural Grocers brands?

Kemper Isely

Operator

Yeah. I think that would be true. I mean, we definitely are marketing our own brand extensively right now, and we have some really compelling prices on items that we are promoting aggressively, and we do not have to discount those prices because they're already substantially better priced than our competitors.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

Do you have any particular goals for the penetration over the next couple of years, like maybe 10%?

Kemper Isely

Operator

Our goal is to increase the penetration by one full percentage point per year, so we're at 8.8%. So two years from now, we should be at 10.8% or even 11%.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

The next question is from Scott Mushkin with R5 Capital. Please go ahead.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions. So one of the things we hear from investors about is kind of generally the space of natural organic is that it's not the macro. That it's similar to what we saw last decade that's, you know, kind of traditional supermarkets and others in the marketplace kinda caught up given what they saw with how strong your sales and others have been. And are offering a lot of the same products at lower prices. What do you think about that thought process?

Kemper Isely

Operator

I think that that's been going on since 1978. And we've done a really good job of differentiating from those from the other supermarkets. And having an authentic story and an authentic brand that resonates with consumers. And it's helped us to build our business to over a billion-dollar business. The conventional supermarkets and Costco and Walmart, they only sell the product because it sells. It isn't because of the story of the product. We sell the product because it is what we are. And so, it makes a huge difference to our customers and keeps our customers incredibly loyal. And it also helps us to keep on growing and expanding our customer base. And companies like Whole Foods are kind of losing track of that by becoming, as they said, the Amazon-ination, whatever it was, the Wall Street Journal article was the other day. And then the Forbes article that followed up on it. And so that's making our brand all the stronger. And then you have the wannabes like Sprouts who doesn't really, I mean, they sell stuff because they it sells, but they don't really have the standards that we do or the ethics that we do about the products that we sell.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Then, Kemper, what specifically or Richard, what specifically in the business do you see that would kinda make you gravitate towards, hey. It's things are become much more challenging in the economy. And that's the root of you know, some of the more cautious comments.

Kemper Isely

Operator

Well, the people that are on the periphery of shopping in our stores that aren't our most loyal customers have definitely pulled back and gone I don't I don't know where they're shopping, but they've pulled back. And so that's that's that's made it so that we're just a little more cautious about our growth. But I think that some of our new marketing initiatives will start to gain traction in not this quarter, but next quarter, and we should see an uptick again in our growth.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

I mean, because of that. Doubt, Scott, that the economy is playing a factor today. I mean, we have massive economic uncertainty. Consumer sentiment is at historic lows. We've seen announcement of significant job layoffs. Had the government shutdown, the loss of government benefits.

Richard Helle

Management

Tariffs, you know, and their impact to inflation. I mean, a majority of Americans are expecting that tariffs will result in higher prices.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

You've had a pretty large.

Richard Helle

Management

Well, they are resulting in higher prices. And they are. But there's an expectation of future higher prices from tariffs. All of it is kind of, you know, is creating this uncertainty. There's definitely, as you've heard, you know, across all retail, a pullback by lower and middle-income consumers.

Kemper Isely

Operator

You know, and a bifurcation in the consumer segment where higher households are continuing to spend. But, you know, as we even heard this morning from Walmart, everybody is looking for value. And so we are going to lean into our differentiation.

Richard Helle

Management

Everybody's looking for value, part of our founding principles always affordable prices. And we're gonna continue to lean hard into that. And as Kemper said, you know, we're also very highly differentiated in terms of the quality of our shopping experience. We provide access to nutrition education.

Kemper Isely

Operator

And we have high product standards that you can trust. So we're gonna continue to lean into those things. Our core customer base is resilient. Our core customer base is growing at a healthy rate.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

So we have a lot of confidence that, you know, there is a lot of economic concern. That is certainly a driver.

Kemper Isely

Operator

The natural and organic segment, yes, is pulling back, but so is the entire, I think, segment overall. And we still believe in the health and wellness trends. I mean, you look at GLP-1 penetration rates, they've doubled over the last year.

Richard Helle

Management

Significant interest in continuing for many more Americans to try those drugs. We understand that those individuals are looking for more nutritious options post that. And so we you know, it's not linear. Right? I mean, as Kemper said, natural and organic has been going through multiple cycles over the last four, five decades, and we'll continue to do that. But we believe the trends, the long-term trends that they will continue to have, you know, 4% to 6% industry growth. It's just not going to be a straight line.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Thanks for that color. And then I actually had just one more, and I apologize because my model's not front of me. So I probably should know this answer off top of my head. But are you guys thinking free cash flow next year will be positive, flat, and what's your thought process around 2026 free cash flow?

Richard Helle

Management

Yeah. Free cash flow will be positive next year. Yeah. That's that's our expectation. Yes. We are investing more in CapEx. Right? We are talking about increasing store openings, continuing to do relocations and remodels. We are looking at we're guiding $50 to $55 million in CapEx to support those initiatives. We're excited about the real estate pipeline that we have.

Kemper Isely

Operator

And about the growth prospects, you know. And we've we've really refined our site selection process and are excited about the communities that we're going in and the positive impact that those communities will have to the overall business.

Richard Helle

Management

And then also we're strategically buying some of our buildings. So just to add a little bit more color to the CapEx.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Yeah. Alright. Well, guys, I appreciate it. And for the record, I kind of I definitely agree with you guys on the economy. I think it's a little bit tough sliding out there right now. But thanks for thanks for all the color.

Kemper Isely

Operator

Sure. Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Operator

Again, if you have a question, please press 1.

Operator

Operator

Showing no further questions. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kemper Isely for any closing remarks.

Kemper Isely

Operator

Thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter results. We take great pride in our sales and profitability growth in fiscal year 2025 and in recent years. We are committed to maximizing value for our stockholders as we look forward to fiscal year 2026. We expect to build upon our momentum by executing to our founding principles, including highlighting our always affordable pricing strategy and differentiated product offering, emphasizing operational excellence, and delivering on our new store unit growth plans. Thank you. And have a great day. Bye now.

Operator

Operator

The conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending the Natural Grocers Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.