Earnings Labs

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 7, 2020

$27.34

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers' Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Colson, Vice President and Treasurer for Natural Grocers. Mr. Colson, you may begin.

David Colson

Analyst

Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for joining us for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage third quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Kemper Isely, Co-President; and Todd Dissinger, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, certain information provided during this conference call are forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including the risks and uncertainties detailed in the company's most recently filed Forms 10-Q and 10-K. The company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. Today's press release is available on the company's website, and a recording of this call will be available on the Web site at investors.naturalgrocers.com. Now, I will turn the call over to Kemper.

Kemper Isely

Analyst

Thank you, David, and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. We hope you are all well and staying safe as we continue to navigate these unprecedented times together, and we appreciate your continued support. The entire Natural Grocers family has worked diligently to support our communities and customers by supplying the highest quality natural and organic products in a safe and convenient shopping environment. I'm extremely proud of the diligent work of our heroes in masks and aprons. We are successfully navigating these challenging times as we provide an invaluable service to all of our customers. The loyalty of our customers is a direct reflection of the entire organization's commitment to executing at the highest level in terms of safety, cleanliness, product availability, quality, and customer service. I'd like to walk through some of the highlights of the quarter and provide an update on how we are responding in Natural Grocers to the COVID-19 pandemic and related government mandates. I will then turn the call over to Todd to discuss our financial results in greater detail. During the third quarter, our strong sales trends continued with daily average comparable sales growth of 15.5%. We have seen consistently robust sales trends since late February as stay-at-home orders were implemented and food away-from-home offerings were limited in response to the onset of COVID-19 and government mandates. After the initial pantry loading period, which peaked in mid-March, our sales levels have continued at an elevated rate and remained relatively consistent throughout the third quarter. It is clear that consumers are reducing their frequency of shopping trips while purchasing higher volumes per visit. Our comp for the third quarter was driven by a 31.5% increase in basket size, partially offset by a 12.2% decrease in transaction count,…

Todd Dissinger

Analyst

Thank you, Kemper, and good afternoon, everyone. As Kemper discussed, we are working hard to provide the safest and most convenient shopping experience for our customers. We have adapted quickly to the dynamic landscape, and we are so proud of our crew who continue to work selflessly to support our customers and communities. During the third quarter, we saw strength across all product categories with above-average comp increases in grocery, including meat, dairy, frozen foods, produce and bulk. Conversely, we saw comps in supplements and body care normalized compared to the strong second quarter. We saw further penetration of the Natural Grocers brand products as we continued to expand our offering throughout the year. We have generally recovered from the initial supply and out-of-stock challenges we faced in the second quarter. We continue to work closely with our supply chain partners as they are still addressing elevated levels of demand. We anticipate ongoing out of stocks in certain items as our manufacturers prioritize their portfolio of products. Net sales during the third quarter increased 18.1% to $265.1 million. Daily average comp store sales increased 15.5% and mature store comp increased 12.5%. The third quarter comp increase was driven by a 31.5% increase in average transaction size, partially offset by a 12.2% decrease in daily average transaction count. Additionally, we continue to see an increase in online and delivery sales through our partner, Instacart. Gross profit margin during the third quarter was 27.3% compared to 26% in the prior year period. The increase in gross margin year-over-year was driven by an improvement in store occupancy expense as a percentage of sales, reflecting our strong daily average comparable store sales growth. In addition, we saw an improved product margin, which included higher margins across most product categories, partially offset by an unfavorable…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Greg Badishkanian of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

Good afternoon. This is actually Spencer Hanus on for Greg. Congrats on another nice quarter here, guys.

Todd Dissinger

Analyst

Thank you.

Kemper Isely

Analyst

Thank you.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

My first question is just on gross margins. Can you just talk about the puts and takes to the improvement this quarter, and then we've heard from some of your competitors about stepping up promotions in June. Did you see any impact from that? And are you expecting promotions to tick up or tick down over the next few quarters?

Kemper Isely

Analyst

I would say that promotions have moderated since the beginning of the government shutdowns, and they didn't really pick up in June. As far as future promotions go, we believe that our always affordable pricing strategy doesn't really necessitate having a lot of product on promotional pricing. We have started to promote meal deals at our stores where you can feed your family of four for under $10 or under $12 or under $16, and those seem to be resonating pretty well with customers. Todd, I'll let you answer the question about margin.

Todd Dissinger

Analyst

Sure. So as I mentioned earlier, we did see a shift in mix but we saw improvements -- an unfavorable shift in mix, and we saw improvements in the margin rate in just about all categories. So we were able to offset the larger sales in the grocery categories. Supplements were down relative to the second quarter, which is where we have a very strong margin, and we are seeing an improvement in supplements in June and into July.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

That's helpful. And then can you just talk about the COVID-related costs that you guys incurred in the third quarter? And what proportion of those are you expecting to recur in future periods, and which portion of those are going to be more variable in nature and should go away?

Kemper Isely

Analyst

Well, primarily, the COVID costs were wage-related. So I mean, we paid out essentially $3.9 million in additional compensation to our crew during the quarter, and as we have said in the past, we've had a $1 permanent increase in our starting wages and also to all of our good4u crew, and that adds up to about $7.2 million per year in additional wages that we'll be paying out ongoing. The other costs are minimal compared to that.

Todd Dissinger

Analyst

On the other costs, I think we probably have some puts and takes in terms of obviously, supplies are up but travel's down, those types of trade-offs, and we did have more hours over prior year.

Kemper Isely

Analyst

Yes.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

Okay. That's really helpful as well. And then I guess, on your guidance, it looks like the midpoint implies that EPS is going to be roughly flat next quarter. Can you talk about what is driving that?

Todd Dissinger

Analyst

Well, we're certainly anticipating higher levels of sales than our view back in May when we updated our outlook at that point in time. Certainly in Q4, we anticipate higher COVID-related and government mandate-related sales than we did a couple of months ago. We also expect that we'll probably see margin increases year-over-year, similar to what we experienced in Q3, and then we're dealing with the higher labor costs that Kemper just detailed. Those are the key drivers.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

Got it. That's really helpful. Thanks, guys. Best of luck.

Kemper Isely

Analyst

Thank you.

Todd Dissinger

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kemper Isely for any closing remarks.

Kemper Isely

Analyst

Thank you very much for joining us to discuss our third quarter results. As Todd mentioned, we encourage you to join us at any of our locations to help us celebrate an amazing 65 years of serving our communities. We're having this event on -- starting on August 13, which would be my mother's 99th birthday, and a very bright future for us. We look forward to speaking with you on our next call to review our fourth quarter 2020 results. Please stay healthy and safe, and have a great day. Bye.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.