Robert Karlovich
Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open
Great. Thanks, Mike. I'll be covering our financial results of the quarter and our accomplishments so far this year. However, I believe the most significant development is our improvement in leverage. When I joined NGL 3 years ago, we set a compliance leverage target of 3.25 times for the company. We knew it takes some time to achieve and we encountered some unexpected obstacles along the way. But we have achieved that goal, actually beat it by more than a quarter turn with compliance leverage for this quarter at 2.96 times. We accomplished this while also growing our business and focusing our strategy. Our leverage has been reduced by over 2 turns in the past year alone. But we have also increased our adjusted EBITDA by 22% compared to prior year-to-date results. We are proud of this accomplishment, which has the partnership on very solid grounds from an operational, balance sheet and liquidity standpoint. And we intend to stay at this leverage level while continuing to grow our businesses. We have sold assets over the past year at significantly better multiples and we received credit for in the market. We have strategically redeployed these proceeds into new growth opportunities and debt reduction. We redeemed our 2021 notes in October, and expect to redeem our 2019 notes in March with the proceeds from the South Pecos sale. Our balance sheet is expected to continue to improve for our fiscal year end at March 31, with compliance leverage expected to remain under 3 times. All these efforts have put us in the financial position to be able to repurchase units should the market continue to discount our unit price. As Mike mentioned, we will continue, however, to put our balance sheet and credit first in any buyback decision. I do appreciate the support of our lender group in recognizing our accomplishments, and supporting this amendment to our facility. Now to our results for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter totaled $132.6 million, a great result considering a significant dip in commodity prices in November and December. With our quarterly results, we remain on track with our year-to-date guidance through December 31, with a total of $308 million of adjusted EBITDA year-to-date. And as a reminder, our adjusted EBITDA guidance remains $450 million for the fiscal year. Looking at each segment. The crude segment generated approximately $51 million of adjusted EBITDA this quarter, with Grand Mesa contributing approximately $50 million on a net basis for this quarter. The remainder of the Crude Logistics segment operated at breakeven level as a benefit from the Permian to Cushion [ph] differential narrowed this quarter. As a reminder, this diff was a positive to our crude business last quarter but there was an offsetting loss in our Water Solutions business. We saw the same thing this quarter but in the other direction, with water getting a benefit of the lower differential. Grand Mesa volumes averaged 129,000 barrels per day this quarter, which is well above our budget. And we expect the volumes on the system to continue around this level through the fourth quarter. We did recognize a small lower cost to market adjustment in our crude marketing division during the quarter, which was offset with an unrealized hedge gain on that inventory. These items are non-cash and do not impact EBITDA. Year-to-date, the crude business has performed very well with approximately $130 million in adjusted EBITDA. Our EBITDA guidance range for the Crude Logistics business of $165 million to $175 million remains. However, we currently expect crude to finish at the upper end of this guidance range. Water Solutions showed a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA this quarter as the basin differentials improved, and we were able to adjust our skim oil hedge position to align with actual production. Water adjusted EBITDA was $48 million for the quarter, which included a realized gain on skim oil hedges of approximately $6 million. Our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA is $126 million. Water volumes averaged approximately 1 million barrels per day this quarter, which includes the Bakken from only a partial quarter prior to our sale. Our Anticline facility was down for a large portion of the quarter as well, which reduced volumes by about 15,000 to 20,000 barrels per day. Additionally, our Permian volumes were relatively flat this quarter compared to the prior quarter, as we saw some slowdown towards the end of the year on completion activity due to weather and the completion of some well workovers at some of our facilities. With the Bakken sale this quarter and the South Pecos sale this upcoming quarter, the water segment results will most likely be lower in the fourth quarter. However, we are expecting volume growth to continue across our system, notably in our core Delaware Basin position, which should make up for these sales over the next couple of quarters. At this point in time, we are expecting water volumes to average between 1 million and 1.1 million barrels per day during this quarter, pro forma for the asset sales. Skim oil production was approximately 3600 barrels per day during the quarter with an average crude cut of 0.36%, a nice increase over last quarter. Most of that increase was realized later in the quarter as we executed oil recovery operation upgrades of some of our processes. We are expecting the fourth quarter to continue some improvement in the skim oil percentage. We were able to take advantage of the lower crude prices during the quarter and have adjusted our volume metric hedge position for calendar 2019. We have now hedged approximately 1500 barrels per day from January through December at a weighted average price of approximately $62.50 per barrel. So we remain in a nice asset position on our skim oil hedge book. We will look to add additional positions to extend our position into 2020 and 2021. Our fiscal 2019 adjusted EBITDA range for the Water Solutions segment remains $180 million to $120 million. However, with the asset sales and current run rate, we are targeting the low end of this range. The Liquids business reported another strong quarter of strong volumes and margins, benefiting from demand and supply for products in the Northeast and Midwest markets, our business development efforts and our new lower cost structure on leased rail cars and reduced storage costs. Adjusted EBITDA for our Liquids segment totaled $27 million this quarter and over $58 million year-to-date. December was relatively warm, which somewhat impacted our wholesale propane volumes negatively. However, we are performing well so far this quarter and expect a solid fourth quarter from this business. Mike mentioned our Terminal acquisition, which is now expected to close until late this quarter, and would have minimal impact from this year's results. Our EBITDA range for Liquids has been between $60 million to $75 million, which we currently expect to end the year at the higher end of this range. The Refined Products segment had a profitable quarter, which we expect to grow in the fourth quarter as we realized our profit on our hedged inventory. Adjusted EBITDA in Refined totaled $10.5 million for the quarter, and has $12.4 million year-to-date. Gasoline and diesel prices fell significantly in the Gulf, which impacts our inventory valuation. This decline was offset with our realized and unrealized hedge gain during the quarter. Our inventory valuation adjustment and unrealized hedge gains are non-cash adjustments to our EBITDA for the quarter. However, we do expect to roll gains into our results as the hedge is settled in the future. High demand for diesel in West Texas driven primarily by oil and gas activity has continued to drive strong volumes and margins for our rack [ph] business in the Refined segment. Our FY 2019 guidance range for Refined Products remains $55 million to $80 million, and we currently expect to be at the lower end of this range as well. Our corporate costs were down significantly this quarter to $4 million. This decrease was expected as we wrapped up the EPA litigation in the prior quarter, and have seen some reduced costs from the assets sales we have completed. Our year-to-date corporate another expense is approximately $18 million, which includes our G&A as well as the first quarter Retail Propane results. We now expect corporate and other to be around $25 million of net expense for the full year. Maintenance CapEx was $10 million this quarter, a reduction from last quarter and in line with our new expectations. We are now expecting $45 million of total maintenance CapEx for this fiscal year, which included Retail Propane in the first quarter. We declared a $0.39 per unit, $1.56 annualized distribution for the quarter. And our TTM distribution coverage is now over one times. We expect to continue to grow the next quarter as well based on our current guidance. And we continue to target 1.3 times coverage or better on a trailing 12 month basis. However, we are also looking at higher coverage levels, if needed, to fund growth capital expenditures, unit repurchases and other needs. To wrap up, we are very pleased with where we are performing at this point in time of the year. We have been very clear on our guidance, remain in line with our expectations. We have achieved our leverage target a quarter earlier than originally anticipated. Our credit metrics have improved dramatically, and we are well positioned for the rest of this year and heading into fiscal 2020 in each of our business segments. We'll provide our guidance for next year on our fourth quarter call in May. Thank you for your continued interest in the partnership. We would now like to open the line for questions. Jimmy?