Earnings Labs

NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 10, 2015

$15.64

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q1 2016 NGL Energy Partners LP Earnings Conference Call. My name is Whitney, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Mike Krimbill, CEO of NGL Energy Partners. Please proceed.

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Thank you and welcome. This conference call will include forward-looking statements and information. While NGL Energy Partners LP believes that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations included in the forward-looking statements. These factors include the prices and market demand for natural gas liquids and crude oil, level of production of crude oil and natural gas, the effect of weather conditions on demand for oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and the ability to identify and consummate strategic acquisitions at purchase prices that are accretive to financial results and to successfully integrate acquired businesses and assets. Other factors that could impact any forward-looking statements are described in risk factors in the partnership's annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and other public filings and press releases. NGL Energy Partners LP undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Please also see the partnership's website at www.nglenergypartners.com under Investor Relations for reconciliation of the differences between any non-GAAP measures discussed in this conference call and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. All right. Let's get started. I will turn it over to Atanas first, and then I think I'll have a few more time answering, and then we'll open it up for questions.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. Good afternoon, everyone. Overall, we were extremely pleased with our quarterly results and performance. We recorded adjusted EBITDA of $89 million for the quarter, which compares to EBITDA of $43.1 million for the same period last year, which represents an increase of 106%. NGL reported net loss of $38.5 million for the quarter ended June 30, '15, compared to a net loss of $39.9 million for the same quarter last year. If we exclude the year-over-year increase in performance, unit and LTIP awards of $32.3 million, we would be approximately $34 million higher. During the first fiscal quarter, we incurred $7.7 million of maintenance CapEx. This excludes $2.9 million of TLP maintenance CapEx, and we still expect maintenance CapEx to be in the range of $30 million to $35 million for fiscal '16. During the first quarter, we also spent approximately $186 million on growth CapEx in acquisitions, of which acquisitions accounted for $78 million, and organic growth, CapEx, approximately $108 million. This excludes $5.4 million attributable to TLP growth CapEx. And we still maintain our guidance of $750 million to $1 billion total for fiscal '16. Distributable cash flow for the first fiscal quarter is $55 million, and this is based on EBITDA of $89 million, interest expense of $26.4 million and maintenance CapEx of $7.7 million. The interest expense of $26.4 million excludes $2.1 million of interest attributable to TLP and $2.3 million of noncash amortization of deferred financing cost. We also reaffirm our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $500 million or greater for fiscal year 2016, and we reiterate our distribution growth guidance of 6% to 8% for calendar years '15 and 16. I'd also like to add some more color to our operating segments to highlight our year-over-year performance and growth. For crude logistics,…

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Thanks, Atanas. I'd like to give a few comments on the macro as we're all sitting here looking at the MLP space together and commodity prices to evaluate what's going on, what's happening. So if we start back last December through this March, we saw a crude oil prices fall from the $90 level into the high-$40s. And of course, the upstream MLPs were hurt first having to cut capital budget, ultimately distributions. But it drag all of that -- everywhere in the MLP sector down. So then, what happens? Crude prices recover to $60. Everyone's happy, and then the fall again. So again, we're getting the equity prices depressed. The flip side of that, which we all seem to focus on the negatives and not the positives, is that construction costs have dropped dramatically. And on several projects we have, we're saving upwards to $200 million in capital because of the lower cost. It also causes a higher Contango. So if you have storage like we do, you can take advantage of that. You're going to make up for much of the fault with higher Contango revenues. And because we have multiple segments with lower crude prices, you have lower refined product prices. So our Bob [ph] gasoline is down to $1.65. We all know demand is increasing, I'll say significantly, because 4% is a pretty big move for gasoline or refined products. So third, what happens? NGL prices fall dramatically. We've all heard about Canadian producers having to pay to have their propane move to the storage hubs, which is true. But a dramatic decline from over $1 a year ago, I think the hubs today are in the $0.28 to $0.35 range. But again, lower prices cause higher demand, so we are seeing higher sales, which impacts…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Brian Zarahn of Barclays.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst

Mike, I guess, following up on some of your comments about the capital markets. How does that impact your plans? Do you have a robust CapEx program for this year? Grand Mesa being a big chunk of that. How does work -- in this type capital of market situation for the remainder of the year, how does that impact your financing?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

We have access to the high-yield market. We're evaluating that weekly. It was daily, now it's weekly. So meaning, we don't really see it's going to be a huge recovery, but that's still at a rate that is acceptable and, of course, well below our yield on the common units. Do we expect our comm union [ph] price to sit here? No. Is it difficult to issue at this level? Yes. But if you've got a 20% or a 25% project, you can still kind of hold your nose and issue some equity. So I don't think it impacts this year. Next year if we stay at this level. We're just going to have to do projects that are 4 to 5 multiples and issue an equity at 10%. I think it doesn't mean you go out of business on the acquisition internal growth side. It just means you have to do deals with higher rates of return, and we're fortunate enough to have a lot of those.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst

So is there a potential for some projects to be deferred until the market stabilize?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

No, we went back and look before this call at all of our projects, and we're moving ahead, full speed ahead. I think the interesting thing is going to be what new things come up at really attractive prices, if some of our -- some other MLP folks get to the point, where they have to sell some assets. So no, we're not slowing anything down. Again, what does that mean? We're still full speed ahead in Grand Mesa. We're washing out more -- drilling, washing out more caverns on Sawtooth, underground storage because the demand is there. They get completely contracted up before we can actually get them in service. So we have a number of smaller things that are going on that we don't issue press releases on, that we're -- we are not delaying. We think there's an opportunity here to get ahead some of our competitors especially in water, some in crude and refined products actually that we're not slowing down by any means.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst

Turning to -- you mentioned Grand Mesa. Any impact on your expectations for that project? And any changes in how you assess counter-party risk in this environment?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

No changes. We are over 80% complete on right away, permitting environmentals on schedule. We have -- we disclosed and so we've got another third-party interconnect that will bring more volume to the pipeline, and our -- we're building additional cushion storage tanks, which we've actually accelerated so we can get them in service by February and take advantage of the Contango market while we're waiting for the pipeline to come onstream and go into service in September. So looking at our counter-parties, I mean, we meet with them. We've -- the public and private ones. We've looked at their production curves. They've frankly -- most of them are telling us they're adding rigs, so we don't have any concern at this point that someone is not going to show up, we're not going to be able to meet their commitments.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst

And last one from me, turning the quarter, you had good results in your products renewables business. Can you elaborate a bit more on the improvement in that business?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Sure. I mean, the biggest is just the fact that we had a full quarter of Morgan Stanley/TransMontaigne, which we didn't have last year. Last year, we had what we call the legacy Gavilon [ph] business. So most of the impact -- most of the increase is due to having a business this year we didn't have last year. But that said, demand is up 3% or 4% for gasoline. We're seeing -- we're probably a little different on the distillate side because we're on the Colonial pipeline, and in Line 2, which is now distillate, much of the time like Line 1, so we wouldn't expect to see a decline in our distillate sales. The margins are stronger on gasoline than they are on distillates, that being said. But combined, margins are up. And when we say margin a penny is a lot of increase. So we're tickled pink in getting an extra penny per gallon. So it's -- thank goodness, we got the business, because we are seeing some weakness on our crude oil marketing as everyone is. When you have lesser volume, you have the same number of competitors, then folks are dropping their margins to try to keep their business or win new. But on the flip side, we're going to have Contango. Contango's increasing, I think, dramatically, today, it looked look like we had 3 or 4 months over $0.70, and then some other months and $0.60. And that's an area we're really excited about, because we think -- and I think some of our competitors have mentioned this as well, you get out of the driving season after Labor Day, and you get some turnarounds, which to our understanding, some refiners, if not many, have delayed turnarounds, take advantage of margins this summer. So if we have a lot of turnarounds in October, you could see the Cushing inventories spike up again, and that would -- should give rise to some really nice Contango margins, which we will lock in.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst

Just last one. On the segment, obviously, the year-over-year of TransMontaigne, but you were asking more base quarter-over-quarter, gross margin was improved quite a bit. Such as -- you're saying...

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes. The improvement was totally a result of the business we bought from Morgan Stanley and TransMontaigne. We were running, I think, a penny or a little more on the Gavilon legacy business. And with the TransMontaigne -- and really, it's Morgan Stanley business, so we'll get our share of TransMontaigne, but all this volume you're seeing is volume on that we purchased from Morgan Stanley the we put through the Southeast terminals.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

And a lot of it is contracted out for 12 months or over.

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes, it's all contracted.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

Versus the legacy business which is primarily a wrapped business, where you can charge usually just a penny. Here, we're having this allocated blank space that we own in Colonial, gives us -- allows us to harvest the additional profitability. And that's what also makes our ownership in these terminals along the Colonial pipeline, very valuable because it allows us to optimize our margins based on when profitability is higher.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from the line of Miles Barnett of HITE Hedge.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

This is Matt Niblack with HITE. A question on the Morgan Stanley assets. How close are you getting to full potential versus the plan when you bought the assets?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes. We're over full potential. We had -- I think we had a bunch of about half of what we’re actually experiencing today.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

For last year, we said that we were going to do, for the first 9, 12 months, we said that we are going to book EBITDA of $30 million. And just last year, at 9 months, we did over $50 million. And this quarter, obviously, when you book to the segment [indiscernible]. Well ahead of that -- of the run rate from last year, so extremely pleased.

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes, we don't expect any more -- I'm just saying. We're not expecting the increased margins at all. We're happy as a clam with these.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

$0.05 or $0.06.

H. Krimbill

Analyst

What we did do is we went out. There was a market for line space that lasted about 1 week as a result of a proposed change to the pair of some Colonial. And we purchased an additional 25,000 barrels per cycle, which would be 5,000 barrels per day based on a 5-day cycle. So we tried to increase our volumes where we could, and very happy with the margins.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

How was long is the contract on Colonial?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

With the customers, those contracts are 1 to 2 years.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

But your space on Colonial?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

It's much like the propane pipeline, common care pipeline, where it's based on your -- what you nominate. So as long as you continue nominating shipping in the same volume, then you will keep your line space in perpetuity.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

Got it. So given that you've actually changed the business by adding Colonial, are the higher margins something that should be sustainable?

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

I'll say, yes, as a result of Line 1 being on allocation all the time, which is gasoline. So you can't get any more gasoline. So demand increases, you kind of see what happens. So margins would go up a little bit, but you're going to -- eventually, if margins go up so much, then it will become economic to rail product in or truck it in, some other mode of transportation.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

And then, apologize if I missed this earlier in the call, but there was a large line item for stock-based compensation, and it was surprising that this was so large, given the direction that the stock has went along with the rest of market, obviously. Could you give a little color on what that is, and how it got to be so big? And is it something we'll see repeated?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes, it's -- I think we filed an 8-K, but it was performance plan, and it's based on a trailing 3-year performance. So you look back at 3 years ago, what was the unit price? We're using the Alerian index as the measurement tool. And then you look at the price at the end of June. And so at the of June, we were around 30 -- a little over $30. So that was the -- that caused us to be in the top quartile in terms of performance. Now with the falling price, it's anybody's guess what happens next year, wherever we -- for $24, $25. And I think we've fallen further than most and I would say it may not be repeatable.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

Got it. And so the way that we can think about the magnitude of that number is that it's going to be correlated to the June of the year it's paid, versus June 3 years ago and the out-performance and underperformance relative to the Alerian index over that time frame?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

I'm not sure -- it's...

Matt Niblack

Analyst

So December 2016, it'll be June 2016, June 30, 2016, share price last June 30, 2014, I guess.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

'14. That's correct. '13 and '14. '13, yes.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

'13. But it's not the absolute price return. It's the relative performance over that period compared to the Alerian index.

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Correct.

Atanas Atanasov

Analyst

So if everyone goes down...

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes, you're right.

Matt Niblack

Analyst

Right, all right. So if everybody's up and you're up last, and there's no or very little of it; and if you're up -- everybody's down, then you're up more. And if everyone is down, and you're not down as much, then there can still be a good number there?

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Yes. If we're in the bottom half of the Alerian, there is a 0 payout.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Selman Akyol with Stifel.

Selman Akyol

Analyst · Stifel.

You talked about some of your competitors disappearing. And I'm just kind of wondering, are you anticipating or watching any assets that they have that appeal to you? Or is there any way you -- that will really work to your benefit in terms of either picking up market share or as I said, picking up assets, expanding your footprint?

H. Krimbill

Analyst · Stifel.

Yes. In water in particular, we are -- there are very few competitors, if any, that they would be interested in buying. They just don't know what we've done with their wells. We've much rather drill our own and take care of them in the last 15 years. And so we can still pick up market share by providing other services, which is what we're doing. We process solids now, building water pipelines, which is basically you, kind of an acreage dedication without having a contract. Although you do have a contract on price, and after bringing all the volumes that go to that water collection site. So it's -- I think we get larger market share. We get lots of revenue streams without having to spend money other than for our water pipelines and our solids plans.

Operator

Operator

That concludes our Q&A. There are no further questions. I'll now turn the call over back to Mr. Mike Krimbill for closing remarks.

H. Krimbill

Analyst

Well, thank you very much. I guess, we -- as long as we beat our numbers, we'd have short calls. Thank you, and we'll talk you again in a few months.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.