Thomas Kaplan
Analyst · John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Thank you very much, Dave, and thank you very much, Greg. On Slide 25, we talk about NOVAGOLD as having been a company that keeps its promises and enjoys excellent partnerships. When Greg Lang and I became both the CEO and Chairman, respectively, of NOVAGOLD 10 years ago this coming quarter, we made certain promises to investors. We promised them that we would become a pure-play on what we consider to be the premier gold development project in the world today. Our attitude, which we conveyed to investors, was that in terms of the scale and the quality, the exploration potential, the potential place on the cost curve, the mine life, and ultimately, the existential attribute of jurisdictional safety, rendered the Donlin project, simply so much the best-in-class that we would ask the question unless there's something better, it's actually unique. To achieve the aim of being able to have a pure-play on this extraordinary asset, one which we consider to be potentially the new Nevada, we promised that we would spin out the 100% owned Ambler project, and we did so in 2012 to create NovaCopper, now Trilogy Metals. It's turned out to be an excellent story in and of itself and is in a fine partnership with South32. We also promised that as part of our program of becoming a pure-play that we would monetize the Galore Creek project. We did this in 2018 with the sale of NOVAGOLD's 50% interest to Newmont for up to $275 million. As you can see by the fact that our treasury is as robust as it is, the combination of the capital raising, which we did in 2012, and I hasten to add, have not had to do since then to the benefit of our shareholders, not having to have been diluted, and the sale to Newmont, we've kept to our promises and put ourselves in the position where we have one of the strongest balance sheet in this space. Meanwhile, we also promised that we would be able to take the Donlin project in partnership with Barrick up the value chain. After the 2011 technical report, we commenced permitting in 2012. There were a lot of people who said this is going to be a challenge. We said we do not see challenges to our projects. And in fact, we were able to take this all the way through in 2018 to the receipt of a record of decision in our major federal permits. Along the way, we had successful drill campaigns, which continued to show the extraordinary potential of Donlin's geology and we also received our key state permits. We've been aligned on project strategy and timeline with Barrick Gold. Barrick is of course our equal partner at Donlin. We have a 14-year history of building value together with an unwavering focus on stakeholder wealth creation, technical excellence, environmental stewardship and social responsibility. We have a constructive and positive relationship with Barrick. We respect their corporate objectives. We respect their financial discipline. And we respect tremendously their focus on geology and excellence. These are not only shared interests but shared values. The culture of mutual respect between NOVAGOLD, Donlin Gold and the people in remote villages and throughout Alaska is absolutely for us a sacred bond. We have well-established partnerships with Native Corporations. We engage with them in activities to enhance employment, scholarship, workforce development and environmental programs in the region. These are resources that need to be developed for the benefit of all stakeholders, and we are absolutely delighted that we are as aligned as we are with everyone from the local communities through to the state and federal governments. On to Slide 26. We're in a bull market in gold. Gold has a tendency to do what you least expect it to do. And what you see with gold is that we are right now within a consolidation period within a long-term uptrend that we think has really only begun. If you look at the price chart on Slide 26, what you will see is an absolutely beautiful example of what a bull market looks like. But put aside the chart for a moment. All of the factors that have given us the feeling and the very strong conviction that gold is going to multiply from here are still there. In fact, they're even stronger. The supply pressures have been extraordinary. If you look at Barrick's own projections, gold production is due to decline for years. The discovery rates have dwindled. The exploration budgets are inadequate. The ore grades continue to fall. Production costs, as a consequence of those falling grades, are rising. The central banks continue to be buyers, not sellers. And last, but in my mind as someone who has visited 110 countries, give or take 1 or 2, and has been involved in resource development in many of them, the jurisdictional risk is now existential. I think it's fair to say that location, location, location is the name of the game. If you're not in a place where when you go to sleep at night, you can waste up in the morning, knowing that whatever you thought you own, you still own, it hasn't been overrun by Al-Qaeda affiliated groups. It hasn't been taken over by resource nationalists. The local communities have not withdrawn their social license. If you're not in the right place, it doesn't matter what you found, you're not going to be able to keep it. The rule of laws and novelty in most places, and as a function of a number of different factors, including the budgetary pressures brought on by COVID and other geopolitical considerations, it's not getting any better. It's only going to get worse. Once again, location, location, location. Meanwhile, in addition to these supply issues, you have the demand drivers, asset diversification. Gold is historic safe haven asset. It's a currency that can't be printed. If anything, the printing of that currency by those who mint it is in decline. You have gold as something that provides you with inflation protection and deflation protection. And it has a multi-millennial provenance that no other asset class of its kind can provide. And then there's the emerging market demand, all of which is pointing towards higher gold prices. If we go to Slide 27, you can see that those who are in the know, the central banks, who are the most keenly aware of how precarious is the monetary stability brought on by currency debasement, they have continued to be net buyers of gold. It's often said that sometimes art is defined by that which a museum has in its collection. That's a debatable subject. But what I would say is, for sure, the fact that central banks are buyers is a very, very bullish sign. They are the ultimate insiders. We know that they are not likely to tell us just how bad currency debasement is likely to be. And so by buying gold, they are voting with their feet. The next slide, on Slide 28, shows something which really does point to the excitement that we have about Donlin, because it really does meet all the challenges that the industry is facing. There really are very few large gold projects that are poised for development, even with the increased exploration spending in the last decade. Let's not forget this. If a Donlin were discovered today or a large gold deposit anywhere were discovered today, the likelihood of it being turned from a prospect all the way through the value chain of exploration, of studies, of permitting, of construction, you're talking now on average a couple of decades, with gold production in decline with discoveries fewer and far between, the horse has already left the barn. What counts now are those things which are big and high quality. When you look at Donlin, what you see is absolutely the answer to that call. Existing mines are being depleted. The grades are declining. Few discoveries are there to replace them. Reserve growth between 2010 and 2019 averaged 52.7%, mainly as a result of major acquisitions. The top 19 gold producing companies reserves have decreased an average of 6 years between 2010 and 2019. Over the last decade, growth stories were abandoned in favor of maximizing returns from existing operations. Current gold exploration budgets are 55% below peak levels. We understand this. The gold companies engaged in quite a lot of capital disruption, primarily because of the subpar nature of the assets that they were developing. But the industry depends on grassroots and early-stage exploration for significant discoveries, if it's actually going to survive as relevant. Over the past 10 years, only 29 major new deposits have been identified, containing 208 million ounces of gold, which represents only 8% of the gold discovered over the past 30 years. No major discoveries have been made in the past 4 years. Between location, location, location and ownership position being nine-tenths of the law, this is really where the story is. If you go to the next slide, you then superimpose onto the industry's challenges. What I have long-held to be the gating factor for whether one wants to have an investment in a mining asset at all, and that is jurisdictional safety. Once again, for those of you who know me, you know that, as they say, I made my bones in places like Bolivia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Congo. I was instrumental in the sale of Kibali to Barrick. I am not unfamiliar with jurisdiction. I'm a historian by background. I understand cycles. Those cycles took me away from the developing markets for a very simple reason. I truly believe that the name of the game has changed from seeking out assets that give you great leverage to an underlying theme to seeking out those assets which gives you great leverage to an underlying theme in a jurisdiction that will allow you to keep the fruits of the leverage. Resource nationalism is rising. Budget deficits in the developing world are rising. The idea that one will be able to keep what you thought you had is akin to an 8th marriage. It's the victory of hope over experience. Simply put, it's not going to happen. Not all ounces are the same. Look at these charts, and what you can see is that the best and the highest-rated ounces are those where you know that you're going to have certainty of ownership and ultimately, as a shareholder, certainty of transaction. On Page 30, a lot of questions as to what is the ultimate objective for gold. My long-term target has been 3,000 to 5,000. That was before the financial crisis of 2008-'09, when gold had a 600 handle. That was before the uncharted waters that we're in with regards to COVID and modern monetary theory, which I referred to in our annual report as modern monetary theology. My target is still 3,000 to 5,000, simply because I do believe it can go significantly higher than that, but it's still got to get to on its way. So there's no reason for me to stretch credulity. If you look at some of the very interesting work done by Incrementum, which we highlight on Slide 30, you will notice that their probability weighted peak is 4,800-ish. I think they're going to prove to be right. And by the way, it's a very interesting report, which they pulled out. I learned a few things. Now if you go to the next slide, if you believe as I do that gold is in a multi-decade bull market, then you can see the leverage that Donlin Gold provides to our shareholders. We take this up to $2,500 gold. I don't believe $2,500 will be a real number. But what you can see from the increase to Donlin Gold's NPV at NPV5 and also NPV0 is absolutely extraordinary leverage. Now you ask what we would be doing with NPV0, that is where I believe most certainly greenfield projects with great exploration potential in North America are going to yield. As we believe that for reasons which Greg highlighted, the exploration potential at Donlin is second to none in North America. It's very clear to us that the blue sky associated with that, combined with the jurisdictional safety is going to take the valuation matrices back to the lowest of the range in terms of 0% discount rates, because that's where we were before the go where the gold is mantra took hold in the 1990s, when Newmont went to Yanacocha. That's what started the whole frontier spirit of the space. I think it's poetic, unfortunate, but poetic that yesterday, Peru, the home of Yanacocha, after having put the kibosh on the Minas Conga's project of Newmont and Buenaventura, the owners of Yanacocha, pretty much said that Tia Maria is a no-go for southern Peru copper. The country that started that whole frontier spirit has now gone socialist. But the truth is so have a lot of others. Again, if you're in the right location, you will get the maximum fruits of the leverage that you seek from a gold bull market. Our preferred play, and if we didn't see that was the case, we'd sell it and pivot to something else, is Donlin, because it has all the attributes that we're looking for. On Slide 32, what you see is that we have a very strong coterie of those who feel very similarly to ourselves. Not only is Electrum, which is my family-owned business in which we also enjoy the support of several sovereign wealth funds, the largest shareholder in the Company, but we're followed by Fidelity, Paulson, BlackRock, the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Van Eck, First Eagle, EXOR, Vanguard, Kopernik, this is all very, very smart money. They know that they're looking at the world the way that we are. And when they look at that, they see that NOVAGOLD is a must own asset if you want to get octane in the space and get full value to leverage in North America. I should say as well, we are extremely grateful to their fidelity, no pun intended, although let's mark that especially, but we are extremely grateful to the shareholders who've been with us for so long, not just Fidelity, John Paulson and BlackRock and new shareholders who've joined us like the Saudi Investment Fund. The people of First Eagle made NOVAGOLD their first development story in their portfolio. That was a huge, huge vote of confidence. As well as EXOR, the Agnelli family's vehicle, adding us to their portfolio. We are grateful to all of you. So, once again, to wrap up on Slide 33, Donlin Gold is the definition of a Tier 1 asset, but more than that, it's a Tier 1 asset in a Tier 1 jurisdiction. We don't have to explain what it's like to be working in Alaska, because it really is considered to be one of the finest jurisdictions in the world today. But let's summarize the attributes that in the aggregate, we consider make Donlin, for the benefit of our shareholders as well as those of Barrick, a unique story. It starts with 39 million ounces of gold contained in a measured and indicated resource category. The grade at 2.25 grams is more than double the world average for a large-scale open pit. The exploration potential, well, those existing resources are contained within 3 kilometers of an 8-kilometer mineralized trend, which itself is located on less than 5% of Donlin Gold's land position. Alaska, as I mentioned, is a premier mining jurisdiction with respect to the socially and environmentally responsible mine development. Our partnerships are time tested, both with our native corporation allies as well as our 50% joint venture owner, Barrick Gold. The leverage speaks for itself, our balance sheet with almost -- well, over $170 million as of August 31 and another $25 million due in 2030 -- 2023 from Newmont and no short-term debt. This is something we can boast about. We've got our key permits, the management and the Board have a successful track record of building and operating mines. And lastly, once again, we have strong time-tested support from premier institutional investors who share our vision for building one day when the time is right the premier gold assets in the world today. Thank you. I turn the chair back to the floor. Thank you.