Thomas Kaplan
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead
Thank you very much, Greg. And I certainly hope that all of you who are on the call and those of our friends and shareholders who aren’t that our words fall upon you in a state of safety and good health. These are unfortunately, the very interesting times that the Chinese would refer to. And all of us have to be an even greater cognizant of the challenges that we’ll be facing in the years ahead. With that, let’s remind ourselves what we have in Donlin and what makes it not just something that is a Tier 1 asset, an expression to which I’m indebted to Mark Bristow at Barrick, but also something which Greg himself referred to as unique. As many of you know, Greg came from Barrick, where he was the President of Barrick North America for many, many years, running an operation that was actually producing more gold than Goldcorp at the time. When he came into NovaGold, I came into NovaGold. I’d already been an investor from the end of 2008. But when Greg became CEO, I became Chairman. We celebrated 8 years together and during that time, I’m very confident that every statement that we’ve made, every promise that we have expressed has been met with success. The primary reason for that is because of not just the management team, but the fact that Donlin is not just a "world-class asset", it really is unique. There is no other development stage asset in the world, which combines the reserve grade, production capability, the exploration potential, the mine life, the leverage to gold and superimposed on to all of that in a jurisdiction that will allow you to keep the fruits of the leverage when the time comes for you to ring the cash register. But in fact, it really is even better than that. Donlin is the right asset for this moment in the gold market. If we could move to the next slide, gold is in a secular bull market. But we went through a cyclical downturn from 2011ish until last year. I was not immune to the nuclear winter psychology in a certain sense of the gold industry and when David Rubenstein wanted to interview me about gold for his Bloomberg peer-to-peer series, I said, do we really have to talk about it? I want to wait until gold pops. And by a stroke of luck, when we did the interview, gold had, had its last real pullback and the price was $1,280. And from then on, it started to move up and never went down below that. So we got it lucky and yet, luck is really only a part of it. The reasons to own gold are multifaceted. I’ll get to those in a moment. But suffice to say that when David asked me what my target was for gold, I told him that based on the industry fundamentals themselves and the challenges faced by the gold industry, I believe that a normative supply-demand equilibrium would come somewhere between $3,000 and $5,000 an ounce. That is still my initial target, but I also alluded and this is a year ago to some other dimly perceived variables that could make that just a first target. And I will just say this. I do believe that when we look back upon where gold is today and we see where it will be years hence, the chart pattern will not be dissimilar to that, which really has characterized the Dow Jones from the early 1980s to where it has been recently. The implication is that we’re going to see gold at much, much higher levels. If you look back and obviously, history doesn’t repeat itself, but on occasion, it rhymes, you can see that gold is actually playing out the bull market in a way that is not dissimilar to what we saw in the 1970s. I do believe that the chart patterns, and chart patterns to me are just brain waves. I’m a historian by background. I don’t believe that technicals rule. But on the other hand, I have learned that if the fundamentals are right and the technicals corroborate them, you really know that you’re going to get the wind in your sales. That’s what’s happening in gold. And the saucer bottom, as it were, that we’re seeing is a very, very powerful chart pattern and I do believe that what we’re seeing is the beginning of the next leg in the secular bull market, leg 1, having taken us from 250 to 1900, leg 2, a pullback to almost 1000, the third leg will take us into the new highs and far beyond that. All of my predictions in this instance, we are not predicated, I hasten to add by what I call, the fear factors, things such as pandemics and crises and wars and pestilence and all of that. I’ve always believed that if you can’t persuade a sentient being on the case for something based on economics 101, supply and demand, and you have to resort to, what I call, the fear factors, the last refuge of the scoundrel, then you shouldn’t be in that business, either for yourself or for anyone else. Suffice to say that I do believe that extrinsic of the incredibly trying circumstances that we see now, gold will multiply. Unfortunately, as a consequence of some of the macroeconomic measures, which are going to be taken in order to get the world through this, it’s very possible that we will see prices much higher than I had been forecasting over the longer term. And the reason for that is not so much a consequence of the pandemic itself. I have always believed that the business cycle will not repeat itself and that we could one day get an economic downturn. That economic downturn would lead to measures, which would be from a macro standpoint very gold bullish. That’s happening. It was going to happen anyway. Those who are bullish on gold are not in any way profiteers. They are just people who believe in a currency that cannot be printed regardless of circumstances. We can move to the next slide. Again, economics 101, what we’ve seen in the gold industry is that gold production has effectively peaked. We have seen peak gold. For those of you who can remember what peak oil looked like, the reality is that unlike hydrocarbons, when gold peaks, you just can’t turn it on. Unlike hydrocarbons, we do not have large reservoirs of trapped reserves that a new technology such as fracking or horizontal drilling can unlock. It just simply doesn’t exist. We don’t even have the technologies like 3D seismic to allow us to explore in more efficient ways. As a consequence, the majors are depleting their reserves faster than they can replenish them in most instances. That is unfortunately going to be accentuated dramatically by, what I predict will be, a falloff in production from the developing world for reasons that we will get to in a moment, exploration success never easy in the best of circumstances. When I got into the business, it was calculated that the odds of being able to make a discovery that would take a prospect to production was somewhere between 1,000 to 10,000 to 1 against you. Those odds still pertain and this is the longest period in which we have seen really no new great discoveries in the gold market. What’s worse is that even if you do make the discovery, the timeline from discovery to production is now calculated on average to be in excess of 20 years, which means that as we embark upon the next leg of the bull market, because the trapped reservoirs, the resources are not there to be unlocked because the exploration is not there, because it takes so long to be able to take those rare exploration stories to market, it’s already a case where the horse is already out of the barn and it’s been locked. If you are not going to gain exposure to high-quality gold assets in excellent jurisdictions, you will end up buying them. I do believe that those who have great assets in safe places will experience for their equities a bubble. I do believe that you will see North American assets valued using the 0% discount rates that pertained before the early 1990s when Newmont went the Yanacocha and set off the animal spirits, the gold where the gold is philosophy that took people all through Africa, South America and Asia. As somebody who as an American was probably one of the two or three most adventures who made their fortune in Bolivia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Congo, I sold Kibali to Rand Gold. I’m not speaking as a Pollyanna I am not talking my own book. I wrote the book until the time that I realized that these regions would become more difficult. I was, in fact, the largest holder of mineral rights in the Islamic world. At a certain point, I realized that not because it was the Islamic world, but the developing world in general, that the areas that had been so good to me that, that game was over. I think that what we’re seeing by the combination of mine supply falling at the same time as grade has fallen over the last decade, which means that operating costs have risen. When you superimpose the other jurisdictional factors onto that, you really do see that peak gold is exactly that. Ian Telfer, I think, made that comment several years ago, and he was spot on. And the truth is we’re seeing it in the market. You can move on. Question about central banks, central banks are what I call the ultimate insider buyers. Now there are some people who say central banks are not smart money. And my point would be this it doesn’t matter whether they’re smart or whether they’re incompetent, one thing that they do know is that what they consider to be reserves are ephemeral. And unfortunately, the last month has proven that. There is almost nothing that they own that cannot be duplicated and multiplied by the press of a button, the only asset that they have in their portfolios that does not represent either their liabilities because they’re putting a lot of their own stuff on their balance sheet or someone else’s liabilities is the gold. Not surprisingly central banks have been buyers of gold. What does that mean for the gold investor? So long as central banks are not net sellers which I don’t see happening at all, it means that one of those areas that pushed the price of gold down through the ‘90s is now gone. Just by them being absent from being sellers is good enough. The fact that they have now become buyers is a reflection of the fact that they understand that everything else that they own is a challenge. This is going to continue. There will be times when they will pause when the price of gold goes higher or because they need to sell some gold for other liquidity because there are other things they can’t sell. It doesn’t matter. They are going to keep their gold. Any thought that central banks will be large sellers of gold is over. They get it. They understand they shouldn’t sell it. And if anything, what you have seen in the market is that these countries are repatriating their gold. They don’t even want to leave it with traditional custodians in London and New York. They want to be able to have it back where they can look at it. That’s a statement. You can move on. Meanwhile, we have a number of demand pressures which are going to be squeezing the already dire supply issues that I have cited. One of the great factors for gold investors, especially those who are used to being called gold bugs or cave dwellers or troglodytes or whatever it is we are, is that over the course of the last year, being bullish on gold has gone from something that is derided or mocked to something that is now a legitimate question for the broader investment market. And we’ve seen that in the diversity of the names who have been advocating gold ownership as well as the multiplicity of reasons for which they advocate. These names have often very different reasons for why they’re gold bulls. Whether it’s Ray Dalio, Mark Mobius, Sam Zell, Jeff Gundlach, Ken Rogoff, I could go on and on. The point is that if somebody comes on to CNBC now and talks about gold, yes, and eyebrow maybe arched, but you will not have the traditional knee-jerk reaction of gold, you got to be kidding. That’s extremely important. Gold is not a crowded trade. So the contrarians amongst you should not make the mistake that, oh, because gold is now something you can talk about, it means it’s a crowded trade, not remotely. It’s the most under owned trade in the financial world. That will change. I don’t know where they are going to get the gold because even a 1% allocation by the really big money out there would multiply the price of gold. But it’s going to happen. I do believe that every fiduciary ultimately is going to have an allocation to precious metals, one way or the other. They are going to do it for diversification. They are going to do it because their clients are going to see that gold is going up, and that’s going to drive them to take a little bit of a position because they’re not going to want to answer questions on why they don’t own gold. So some of the reasons that they will advocate it, asset diversification, safe haven, a currency that can’t be debased, the central banks are purchasing it, inflation protection, deflation protection, emerging market demand. So when you see all the different reasons, you will be shocked at how many there are. For us, that means that when the gold bull market really resumes and we see new highs, instead of people mocking gold, they are going to scratch their heads. They’re going to do what investors usually do, which is really only to look at something after the price has risen, they start asking, should we have an allocation to it. And then they’re going to see all the different boldface names who have advocated gold buying for very different reasons, they will choose to hook on which they wish to hang their hat and they will buy gold. It will be easier for them psychologically to buy gold at $2,600, then it’s $1,600. Mark my words. Next, I don’t even have to mention the fact that I think it was Bloomberg, came out with an article a couple of days ago that gold is one of the only three, four assets, which is actually up during this recessionary period. When you think that gold is with a 16 handle, which is basically where it was before the stock market crash, that’s quite a statement. That’s shown that gold is a good place to be able to have some cash parked for a rainy day. The implications for gold stocks, I’ll talk about in a moment. But the truth is gold belongs in everyone’s portfolio. I think Ray Dalio had it right when he said that those who don’t own gold either don’t understand history or the economics of gold. And he gave reasons for owning gold as a currency. Sam Zell, because there are no new mines coming online, Mark Mobius, because of diversification, Ken Rogoff, because of the emerging markets, Jeff Gundlach, gold is coiling like a snake. Looking at the chart pattern, Paul Tudor Jones, same thing, gold will be the trade of the year. So when you have a little bit of gold, it should give you some peace of mind. And gold is doing what it’s supposed to be doing. Right now, it’s providing liquidity to people from an asset that’s appreciated in order to be able to help those people who own it, who have other assets that have fared worse. Next. Okay, last year, I gave another interview, in which I got to talk about a lot of my other passions. But during that interview on realvision, which you can certainly get access to on the Internet, and there are a lot of other people who have been interviewed for realvision, I would certainly advocate those who are interested in gold watch, John Hathaways interview as well. And we spoke considerably about gold. During that interview, Dan Tapiero who is brilliant gold investor in his own right told me that for a number of years, he has been referring to a certain mantra that I have as the Kaplan Doctrine. I liked it definitely appealed to my vanity. And the truth is that from the time that I enunciated this Doctrine in 2012 at a conference that John Paulson convened on gold, this has really worked for me. And so I used to be 50% North America, 50% other places around the world. I’m now 90%, 95% North America and Australia. It is my considered opinion that after having visited 109 countries, after having made a lot of money in the developing world, that, that era of go with the gold is I believe personally is over. And whereas my mantra used to be acquire category killer assets that give the greatest leverage to the underlying investment thesis that you’re investing in, and it worked for me in silver, platinum, hydrocarbons. I came to add a corollary to that, which is do so in jurisdictions that will allow one to keep the fruits of the leverage. I truly believe that institutional investors when their brokers come to them and say that they have a management team coming in with a world class asset are more and more going to respond to that by saying it sounds great. I’d love to meet them. Just tell me one thing, where in the world are they? Because if it’s in a place where the rule of law is a novelty, if it’s in a place where they wouldn’t take their family, if it’s in a place where one day, they are going to have to defend their IC, why they went into a place where there was de facto or dura confiscation. It’s just not going to work. People are going to, first and foremost, pay the highest multiples and use the lowest discount rate on those assets that are in places where when they go to sleep at night, they know that whatever they owned in the morning, they still own. Next, there is no doubt in my mind that Donlin, which as I will repeat, is unique in its combination of attributes. It will, in 1 or 2 stages, be the largest pure gold producing mine in the world located in the second largest gold producing state in the premier jurisdiction in the world. That is for us, as investors in this space, The Holy Grail. If I did not believe that were true, I would put the company into play, and I would pivot to something else. Because I believe it’s true, I absolutely am convinced that as people start to scramble for investment in gold equities, one of the only true go-to stocks and perhaps the highest valued development stage equity will be NovaGold because of its half interest in Donlin. The 39 million ounces would be the largest gold mine to go into production when it does. As you’ve seen from Greg’s charts, we truly believe that the exploration potential at Donlin is second to none. That’s just along the 8 kilometers, which we’ve drilled in the past. The 39 million ounces are only drawn from 3 kilometers of that. We believe that there is a lot more gold at Donlin and when those exploration results are able to be shown in months or years hence and if gold is in a bull market, I truly believe that companies that are able to add high-quality, high-grade reserves in safe places easily or quickly will be very, very rewarded in their share prices. In a bear market, nobody cares. In a bull market, great drill results are like catnip. Donlin is a perfect play. There are two ways to play it. We are a pure-play at NovaGold and for those who want exposure to a big cap with diversified production, you’ve got Barrick. Some will own both. One thing I can tell you, in our opinion, Donlin is, in terms of its potential, the next Nevada. Actually, the reserves are not altogether dissimilar to the joint venture. There are no pure plays on the Barrick Newmont joint venture, I wish there were. But that is a great story. I do believe that Donlin will be the next great story in North America, and NovaGold provides an absolutely pure-play on the next Nevada. Next, the leverage to gold at Donlin, we have all known. These are numbers based on the feasibility study that was concluded in 2011. A lot of input costs have fallen since then. Unfortunately, they have fallen even further even further in some respects over the course of the last couple of months, if you look at the price of oil and other inputs. The bars that you see here, NPV is at 5%, NPVs at 0. I have 0 doubt myself that Donlin will be valued using the 0% discount rate. It’s what American assets were valued at before the go-to the gold mantra took hold. And at that time, just to show you how times have changed. There was no Indonesia, there was no Africa, there was no Peru even. It was Canada, Australia, South Africa and the United States. At $2,000 gold, I believe the potential is for NovaGold to multiply manyfold. $2,000 to me is not a number. That’s just going to be something that gold slices through on its way to the next equilibrium level. Next, we have a very strong shareholder base, been with us for years. We are, I hope, one of their best performers. It’s no constellation. If you’re not necessarily up the most – or up in absolute terms, but in relative terms, we’ve done rather well. Common refrain from our shareholders is that they get comfort that the owners live above the store. The relationship between Greg and his team and myself representing the largest shareholder are truly impeccable. But I can also say that the relationship that we enjoy with our shareholders, Fidelity, Paulson, BlackRock, Van Eck, First Eagle, Tocqueville, Exor, JNE, Empyrean, we have a wonderful shareholder base. Everyone knows that if they want to talk to me, all they have to do, send me an e-mail or send Melanie an e-mail, and I’m nothing if not responsive. I’m the opposite of reclusive. But the point here that I would stress is this, if you want to know everything which we’ve done or will do in the future, read our annual report from last year and from this year. We pride ourselves on having an annual report that is comprehensive and transparent enough that when we actually go visit our shareholders, they want to talk about other stuff, because they know exactly where we stand on every issue. Our Q&A is meant to be comprehensive, read it. A lot of work goes into it. A lot of calories are burned up in doing it, and that’s to make your jobs easier. Next. So, we have stakeholders who recognize we have a Tier 1 asset unique in its qualities as well as jurisdictional safety. Our balance sheet means that we do not have to raise money under duress at all to the contrary. If the market does stupid stuff and goes into disequilibriums, we are one of the only companies that could actually buy back shares. And do so without impairing our future to the contrary. Our production profile will be the largest pure gold mine in the safest jurisdiction. The leadership team could run a major mining company. And once again, I have to stress we are in a place that loves our asset. We could not enjoy better support from our local partners and stakeholders, TKC and Calista, they are absolutely wonderful partners. The state and the federal government could not be more supportive of what we are doing. Next, the appendix. Anyone can gain access to it. And I now hand the baton back to our CEO. Greg?