Dr. Thomas Kaplan
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead
Thank you very much, Greg. I’d like to take the opportunity of the quarterly call to be able to highlight some of the features that make Donlin, that make NovaGold in my mind than that of the Electrum Group, the larger shareholder from the very best vehicle from a risk reward basis in the entire gold space. I’ll do that by highlighting not only our leverage and the fact that we’re in a place where we can keep the fruits of that leverage when the time comes that shareholders to do so. But also some of the changes which we’re now starting to see in the gold market. Obviously, the sentiment, as well as the price of gold is markedly changing and has been considerably altered over the course of the last several months. Starting with page 24, what you see is the leverage to gold that Donlin enjoys. You see that the different NPVs 5 and you see that at NPV 0. It’s my belief after having been in this business for 25 years, that those very, very few high quality assets, particularly with exploration potential, but absolutely within jurisdiction that are favorable will trade with 0% NPVs and this is extrinsic of the fact that so much of the world step is trading below 0%, but surrendering gold a high-yielding currency by comparison. What you see here is a story which regardless of your NPV assumptions is going to explode in value, if you’re remotely bullish on gold. I’m on record as having said that I do believe that gold will have its first real stop in a trading range between $3,000 and $5000 an ounce. What we can see with Donlin is that the leverage is absolutely extraordinary and this for us is what makes Donlin so attractive, the fact that the leverage is there and that when the time comes during the cash register will actually be able to keep it. It’s also that which will make NovaGold one of the very few go-to-stocks within the investment universe. Moving to page 25, our view is that gold is engaged in a long-term secular bull market, one which started at $250 an ounce went to $1,900 million, has been in a correction pattern and is now embarking with the possibility of some head fakes here and there to shake out newcomers on a move that will take us way pass new highs and into a completely different equilibrium level. When you consider that the first 12 years of what we call leg one of the gold bull market saw gold ended every year higher than where it began regardless of whether there was a strong dollar, a weak dollar, inflation fears, deflation fears, political stability, political instability, strong commodities, weak commodities, every year gold ended higher. That is what we call a bull market. The fact that something could go from $250 to $1,900 and then have a correction, it’s perfectly normal. I would point out for those of you who enjoy charts, as I do, my background is as a historian and I view chart as being emblematic of human brain waves. In both instances, in the 1970’s, as well as what we’re experiencing now, we saw beautiful saucer bottoms which preceded very-very strong impulsive moves to the upside. Those bottoms or those saucers tend to get tested. But our opinion is that whether or not we have those head fakes, this is the time that people should be understanding that you have confirmation that gold is embarking on the next move of the bull market, one which I would hazard to guess could easily last as long as the first leg, certainly the second leg, and so we’re talking about really decades long moves. This is just the beginning of what has the potential to be the generational trades for all of us. I’ve never been uncomfortable with being alone in my thesis and taking the view that eventually people will come around to my point of view and I have no problem waiting years for that to happen. If you look on slide 26 and 27, however, what you’ll notice is that gold is starting to attract more adherence. Not only people who have understood its virtues from a supply-demand standpoint for a number of years, people like John Hathaway, people like John Paulson, Nikki Suverias [ph] Eric Sprott, myself, some others who are in this space and have been in it for years. But it’s starting to attract a very broad range of other intellectual discipline. I think it’s fair to say, having almost coined the phrase hyperrationality, that nobody would accuse Ray Dalio of being either irrational or sentimental when it comes to investment analysis. And yet, Ray, has put it in a very beautifully succinct way. Gold is a currency. We have dollars, we have euros, we yen, we have gold. If you don’t have 10% of your assets in gold, there’s no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it. Without going into any of the other macro aspect that he rightly points to, I love the way that he concludes. Don’t let traditional biases rather than an excellent analysis stand in the way of you doing this. And what he’s referencing is the fact that up until literally several months ago, other than a very few intrepid people out there, the idea of being able to raise the concept of investing in gold in any way was viewed as being just on the precipice of being a cave dweller. Gold was a barbarous relic. If you were in an IC and you were talking about looking at gold, people were looking at you as if you were a throwback to a different era. What we see now is that you can be viewing it from the point of view as a trader, a long-term investor, it doesn’t matter. You’re in a position now where some very, very smart money names are starting to look at the favorable attributes of gold and not being shouted down or derided as being gold bugs or any other form of insect. And that range is from people with a great sense of smell as to trades, like Jeff Gundlach and Paul Tudor Jones, and Stanley Druckenmiller to those who’ve seen multiple cycles like take a rope trial, Paul Singer. To those who view it through the prism of the emerging markets like Ken Rogoff. Very interestingly, not long ago, Mark Mobius, whose expertise of course is in the emerging markets, make the comment that the long-term prospect of gold is up, up, up. I think you have to be buying it at any level. So there are different ways to look at gold in terms of people understanding that from a risk standpoint it represents a great trade. I’d also like to point to an article that was in Barents just a few weeks ago, in which Jens Nordvig made a comment at the very end of his interview, in which she said, many central banks are stepping up gold purchases. They scramble to find reserve currency they like. Nobody is crying when gold goes up. So there’s really no anchor on how high it can go. This is actually a very important point that he’s making. There was a time in the ‘80s and the ‘90s, when conceptually central banks might have stepped in to sell gold. Either because they wanted to take a profit, because the path of least resistance for central banker was to sell something that was declining or because there were fears that a rise in gold price might indicate inflation, which back in the old days was viewed as being the central responsibility of the central banks to try to inhibit. Now central bankers who have returned to the market and are buying gold in large quantities because they more than anybody else understand the precarious nature of the reserves they hold be it funds or other currencies which can be printed as well, central bankers are now competing with investors for a very, very scarce asset. And as far as they’re concerned, gold can go as high as the market wants to take it because they would love for people to start thinking that they have managed to be successful in reintroducing inflation into the global economy. So the psychology, as well as the arithmetic of the central banks is now in your favor. The central bank trend is clearly your friend. Now you have others who like Sam Zell, who’ve never really looked at gold and are looking at I think very intelligently from the standpoint of supply and demand, I say that because, that tends to be the area in which I focus, because I do believe that there are many-many macro reasons to own gold. But I think that the secret sauce in terms of our aspect of looking at gold is from the vantage point of the industry which is so absolutely challenged. So let’s look at slide 28. This is a beautiful formation just as a picture of the gold bull market. As I expressed, it shows gold leg one going from $250 to $1,900. We’ve had the pull back and now with that saucer bottom, we have embarked upon the next leg. What’s going to take it higher? Pure supply and demand, economics 101. The demand drivers are clear, diversification, safe haven, currency debasement, central bank purchasing, protection from inflation, deflation and emerging market demand. It’s the supply pressures that are so exciting for someone who’s in the business. The discovery rates of gold are at an all-time low. Exploration budgets are at an all-time low. Poor grades have collapsed, falling by 50% over the last decade. As a consequence, it’s just basic math. If you have one mine producing at a gram a tonne, another at two grams a tonne and all other factors are equal, the one producing at a gram a tonne has a cost base just twice as high as the one that’s producing at two grams a tonne. If rates are falling, costs are rising. Jurisdictional risks, which a decade ago people who didn’t care about to the contrary, people pay premiums for asset in difficult jurisdiction. That’s completely flipped. It used to be the when I got into the business 25 years ago that people started to say: you have to go where the gold is. Doesn’t matter, doesn’t matter what the jurisdiction is. If anything, they convince themselves that it was better to go to Africa, to Asia, to South America, because it appeared to be easier to permit and the country seems to be more welcoming of mining. Well, it is easier to permit in those other jurisdictions than having a permitted mine in a fake jurisdiction for us is the holy grail. That’s where you’re going to see the 0% discount rate. That’s where you’re going to see people flocking, not creating bubbles in those scarce asset in safe jurisdiction. But it also means that the first wave of investment that’s really going to be the most juicy is into those vehicles that provide you with great asset in safe places. It also means that a lot fewer mines are going to be developed than people thought, because it’s much harder to get financing for a mine in a jurisdiction where essentially they want to take you over. Some of them are clever and they wait until you’ve actually got the door A at the airport, others not as clever. And the indicators are going to change the rules while you’re developing it or before you’re gone into production. Meanwhile, on top of all of this is the fact that the central bankers who could be relied upon to provide gold, are now competing to acquire the gold, while the mining companies who are supposed to be minting money can’t even find it. So let’s look on page 29. This chart tells everything you need to know. What you see is a decline in reserves, what you see is the decline in discoveries. And effectively [Technical Difficulty] barn door has been closed even if you [Technical Difficulty]. You’ve made that discovery to production, it’ll be over 20 years, especially if it’s going to be in places where you really want to commit your capital for 20 years and not worry about changes in regime, insurgencies, U-ray [ph] or de facto confiscation. So if you want to be in places where you actually permit something, that after you permit it, you know that you can keep it, there aren’t really very many opportunities and even if they existed, it would take decades, which basically means that the horse is already out of the barn, nothing’s going to change that in our view. There are no new technologies out there, this isn’t like hydrocarbon. If you go to page 30, what you see is that the majors are burning through their reserves faster than they can replace them. But unlike in the hydrocarbon industry and I know that going extremely well, there is no such thing as horizontal drilling, there is no such thing as fracking. And the reality is, there is no such thing as huge tract reserves that a new technology would be able to come in and disrupt and exploit, it’s over. Page 31, again refers to the central banks being buyers. I would view the central banks as being the smartest of the smart money in this instance, because they more than anybody else really understand how flimsy the reserves they hold are and there’s no question. If anything, the trend among populations is that they want to see their gold repatriated from other places back to their own homeland because they understand that gold represents the one financial assets that does not reflect somebody else’s liability to repay you. If that kind of autonomy that provides a safe haven for central banks, as well as individuals. By being able to have gold, you are able to play the role of your own central banker just with assets that nobody else is responsible for being able to repay you for. On page 32, we’re very proud of this chart. We have an extremely strong, an extremely faithful shareholder base, who have understood that over the years every promise that we’ve ever made, every target that we’ve ever aimed for, every strategic objectives that we described in detail, all of them have been met. There is not one promise that this management team, beginning with Greg Lang and his executive group, but also myself, the Electrum Group and those who have been supporting management have not fulfilled. And our shareholders have seen it. We promise to turn NovaGold into a pure play on Donlin. That meant selling Galore not for pennies but for real money. That meant spinning out trilogy, which in and of itself has been a very strong success story in the marketplace. That meant being able to permit Donlin at a time when people really weren’t sure what it looks like to permit a major project in Alaska, especially when it’s going to be a project that in either one or two phases is going to be the largest single gold producing mine in the world but in the safest jurisdiction in the world. We did it. Everything that we said that we would do has been done and this is reflected in the kind of shareholder base that anyone would be proud of. People who’ve been with us for a very long time, like, Paulson, Fidelity, Van Eck, we have new people who have made us the first development story that they’ve added to their portfolios, people such as First Eagle and Axor [ph]. This is really-really a great group and it indicates that on a wide variety of levels, our strategy of being able to take Donlin up the value chain and be a pure play on an entire district. What we think actually has the potential to be as big as the joint venture between Barrick and Newmont is an extraordinary story. It’s a way for people to get all the leverage they could want in the ideal jurisdiction. So on page 33 to summarize, what you have in NovaGold on a 360-degree basis, is you’ve got a company which has an extraordinary balance sheet between cash on hand and factorables receivables almost a quarter of $1 billion with the heavy lifting of permitting behind it. The assets I think could redefine what a Tier 1 assets looks like in terms of its size, its grade, its exploration potential. The fact that it is permitted in North America, optimization between Barrick and ourselves is going along extremely well. The shareholders are supportive and smart money. Our production profile will make this one of the largest asset, potentially the largest single gold producing asset in the world. And it’s being taken up the value chain by a management team that’s been there, done that with a track record of success in difficult jurisdictions. But the truth is, your company has a pure play on the unique Donlin gold assets, which also happens to be located in the best jurisdiction in the world. What you own we will be able to keep. And so, with that, I turn it back to Greg, and open up the field for questions. Thank you very much.