Thomas Kaplan
Analyst · JPMorgan. You may begin
Thank you very much, Greg. Amidst the expressions of gratitude, which I share for Gerry, Gil and Dave, I’d like to take a moment to express my deepest gratitude to you, Greg. What you have done, what your team has done has been a credit to the mining industry. And I can certainly say that having been in this business for 25 years, the experience that I’ve had working with you and your management team has far and away been the most enjoyable that I have known. You have been and the team has given nothing but joy. And the results themselves of the company’s activities, I think, reaffirm that. In my remarks, I’d like to touch on a few things which I believe need to be highlighted and I shall also be doing so in writing in this year’s annual report. One of them is that having been in this business for a long period of time, I am like almost everyone else in this call, normally on the investors side of the table, vetting managements, vetting assets, taking a view on natural resources prices whether they were silver, copper, gold or natural gas for that matter. I can say that there has been, in my experience, very few examples of a company that said what it was going to do and actually did it to the letter. People forget that 10 years ago and this January is indeed the 10th anniversary of Electrum’s entry into the NOVAGOLD story. The company had all kinds of problems that made it almost uninvestable. When you look at the progress, which has been made over the last 10 years, you would realize that this is one of the great turnaround stories in the industry. But the period that I’d like to highlight is the period in which time Greg became the CEO of NOVAGOLD. Coincidentally, I became Chairman [Audio Dip] story of this unique asset base which we had, we raised a lot of money, over $300 billion at $9.5 a share. To any investors who might still be in it from that offering, I can assure you that you will not see the company selling shares below that price. We don’t do down rounds. And if anything, the company that we have is in a better position to buy back shares, if gold has another head-fake to the downside then perhaps to sell shares. This is really important. Greg highlighted the uniqueness of Donlin. And I would put it to anyone on this call to challenge the assertion. I don’t believe that there is an asset whose combined attributes of size, grade, exploration potential, production profile, all-in cash cost, mine life, jurisdictional safety and community relations comes even close in comparison to Donlin. That’s why we’ve gone from saying it’s the best development stage story in the world today to being unique. You can’t even find something like this in a difficult jurisdiction. To be able to have a permitted mine that one day in one or two phases will be the largest pure gold producing mine in the world in the safest [ph] gold producing state in the safest jurisdiction in the world, that is for an investor like myself, the Holy Grail. I’ve navigated and profited in Bolivia, The Congo, Zimbabwe, South Africa, East Texas. I’ve had great assets. My team has found some of the best. We’ve acquired control of some of the best, but we’ve never been in a position of being the largest shareholder of an asset that is unique, that couldn’t be repriced, that even if someone found it today would most likely take 20 years to be able to get to the position where NOVAGOLD finds itself. I have zero doubt in my mind, metaphysical certitude when the investors sentiment returns to this space and portfolio managers are calling up their brokers and saying, What can we buy? One of the stocks that’s going to be given to them as a recommendation will be NOVAGOLD. There are many reasons for that. One that I would highlight is, I think that after the experiences that most investors have had in the developing world, and remember as I’ve just cited, my ability to speak about this comes from experience and having made money in the developing world. I believe the game is over. And subscribing to the Woody Allen line, I’m not afraid of death, I just don’t want to be there when it happens. We pulled up stakes from the emerging markets about seven or eight years ago, and I became what at that time seemed like the Jeremiah of resource nationalism and jurisdictional safety. Today, that mantra of not just going where the gold is, but gold where you would be willing to take your family on a vacation, has become much more commonplace. If I’m right, there will be a bubble in gold stocks, but particularly those where a broker can tell the PM, this is a place where you can invest money and go to your IC and if you’ve got spare time you can go whale watching or you can go gambling in Nevada or go to the Sydney Opera House or some other safe places. I believe that, that will be existential. I have no doubt that comes the next leg in the bull market and I will repeat that I believe we are just in a correction within a long-term bull market that will go beyond 1,900, but comes a time when sentiment returns to this woefully undercapitalized sector, you’re going to see investors saying, Find a great asset, solid management that is in a place where when I go to sleep at night, when I wake up in the morning, whatever I thought I owned, I still own. Now, you’ve heard all the reasons why Donlin is unique. I think that we are blessed. I think that Barrick is blessed to be able to have a reserve, a resource that is accretive on practically every metric from the metric of how much of your reserves are located in safe places through to grade, through to production profile, and the fact as Greg said, that we just think we’re scratching the surface in terms of the exploration potential. You’re dealing with 40 million, 45 million ounces of resources on three kilometers of an eight-kilometer belt and that eight-kilometer belt is only 5% of the total land package. As my Chief Geologist, Larry Buchanan told me, after we became the largest shareholder of NOVAGOLD, I believe the next Donlin will be found at Donlin. Now that we have a partner who has understood what it means to really create value from the drill bit, we may yet see very pleasant surprises. Obviously, we’re partners. We’ve been great partners to Barrick over the last 10 years. And we expect to be so for many more years to come. Now, let me reflect upon one of the unsung attributes of this company. I hinted at it earlier on. This company tells the truth. When Greg and I did that capital raising at $9.5. We made some promises to those investors, it was 2012. We promised to spin-off our Alaskan copper assets. That company spun off as NovaCopper and now trading under the name Trilogy, has performed really well, and we’re very hopeful that there will be more good news to follow. We certainly have a lot of shareholders who have NOVAGOLD and have Trilogy, and they’re very happy with what we did. But in order to make NOVAGOLD the pure play on Donlin, that was our stated objective, we also had another great asset in the stable, that was Galore. Galore is a wonderful asset. And we wish Newmont and Teck all the best in developing it. We believe that one day that will be among the lowest cost, if not the lowest-cost producers of copper in a Tier 1 jurisdiction. Great local partners. But from our standpoint, we didn’t have the ability to simply say, okay, we’re going to develop two megaprojects in tandem. But we also said, we’re not giving it away. We know that we could sell it any day for $50 million. We knew that there’s real money here. And the deal which gives us $200 million guaranteed and we hope as much as $275 million kept phase with all the shareholders to whom we said, don’t worry about it, we will not sell this asset under $200 million. And we expect, as I said, to get more. We didn’t get pennies for it, we got real money. That real money on our balance sheet means that today we have between cash on hand and factorable receivables about $0.25 billion with our permitting pretty much done. Most of it is done, the federal permits are done. If gold were to go into a nuclear winter before it makes its next move, what we call the classic v-bottom head-fake, we’re one of the only companies that literally can’t go out of business. We wouldn’t be hemorrhaging cash like producers do, but we wouldn’t be subjected to the vagaries of the market like those who are developing gold mines now are doing. We would be in a position where people would know this company could hunker down decades, literally decades, if anything – if we get the opportunity, we will be buying back shares, not selling them. We will not have to sell shares under duress. The next time we sell shares, we hope it will be simply because we and whoever partner we have, whether it’s Barrick or anyone else who comes into the story in their place want to take this project forward. As all of you know, we’re not in a rush. I do not believe that people should be giving away gold at $1,300. I think it’s a mistake. I think that if you’re a true believer in gold, you wait. And if you’re not a true believer in gold and you think gold could go down, you definitely do not want to be in a position of being a producer. You want to be husbanding those reserves and not putting any analyst in the position where they have to factor lower gold prices and how much money you’re having to burn and how much capital you have to raise to stay in business. The fact that we don’t have any of those question marks over us, while we have a permitted mine in the United States that we’re dealing with, this is to me, what I said, the Holy Grail. We think it’s the best position for a gold investor to be in. You have a mine that we said would be permitted. It was not only permitted in Alaska, which people were very concerned about for a variety of reasons that we don’t have to go into that were not to our company. And we said we have no opposition. We have wonderful local partners in Calista and TKC. Alaska is open for business. Well, we’ve proven it. And the state itself, as Greg referenced, reaffirmed it a couple of months ago by 2:1 that their environmental laws, which are already pretty great and stringent, needn’t be made more complicated to hold back development, where that development can change the lives of people. So we said what we were going to do in terms of Trilogy, in terms of making NOVAGOLD a pure play, that we would be permitted. We also expressed such confidence in the deposit that we sell to our partners and we ever decided some drill holes into it, people would get very excited. We did. There aren’t that many companies like Barrick or NOVAGOLD, who can report 130 meters of 6 grams or 64 meters of 5 grams. Whether the whole size of the deposit ends up being larger, who knows? We believe that if we were to drill along some strike, we would be adding reserve. Now, you’ve heard all the reasons why we believe we’re unique. You’ve heard that I’ve been in the story for 10 years. I can tell you that rather than being fatigued, I have never been more excited about the prospects for this company. I fully expect that we, as Electrum, the largest shareholder, could have a multibillion dollar payday from this story. I believe that being able to have assets of this kind when sentiment returns is just what the market needs. One thing we know, the gold industry needs assets like this. Whether you look at asset quality, where the grade of the average gold mine has plunged 60%, 70% to 100% and I believe we’ll be under a gram. During this period of the last decade, we’ve seen so few successes in exploration, so few. 5 million ounces, it’s minimum that we look at as an investment company, NOVAGOLD and Barrick has 6 million ounces in storage within the pit, that itself would be one of the most accretive additions in the gold space. Of course, we’re going to get to it. And of course, finding an asset like Donlin is a 10,000 to 1 proposition. So no wonder that mega mergers are happening. The Barricks of the world, the Newmonts of the world, they need to make deals, they need to add reserves. They know that they’re burning through reserves faster than they can replace them. They also know that gold is not like oil. I think Ian Telfer was right when he said that we’re going to see, if we haven’t already seen, peak gold. Having been in the hydrocarbon business and done really well in that business through exploration, unlike hydrocarbons, the mining industry do not have any new technologies like frac-ing or horizontal drilling to be able to unlock vast reservoirs of resources. The reality is there are no vast reservoir of resources. In other words, between the lack of technology and the fact that this stuff isn’t there and the quality has also collapsed simultaneously, I would say that the horse has not only left the barn, it closed the barn door. That’s why great North American assets will be like catnip when the time comes. And we’ve seen it before. In 2010, our stock went from five to 15 in a matter of weeks and that was when we had headwinds. We didn’t have the kind of relationship with Barrick that we had before. People didn’t believe you could permit one of the biggest mines in the world, eventually, in Alaska. We didn’t have a management team that we got two years later when Greg Lang joined us from Barrick and brought Richard Williams and Dave Deisley and Dave Ottewell into our stable people, who could manage any major mining company. We had headwinds, those headwinds became tailwinds. Now, I would add that at that time, 10 years ago, people were not buying into necessarily my jurisdictional thesis. I had debates in public from those who said I was alarmist, they don’t anymore. To me that is determinative. People no longer go where the gold is. They will go where they can sleep well at night. Now, I’ll take just a few minutes and there may be more questions on it, to address now the most asked question that we get as a company, because it used to be, when will you get the permits? It used to be, will you be able to get a decent price for Galore? It used to be things about our company, where we had the most ability to comment on the outcome. The question we get now is where does your spend go on this project? First of all, let me start by saying that we believe that the introduction of Randgold, the introduction of Mark Bristow into the Barrick equation is a momentous game changer in terms of accelerating the value proposition that is Donlin. Now, let me make sure that I express this very, very clearly. That is not a statement that we are of interest now than we were then in pushing Donlin into production until such time as it’s what our shareholders want and what our partners want. But no matter how we slice it, whatever happens with regards to Barrick, whether they choose to adopt our narrative that this will be one of the greatest mines in the world some time in the future when the returns are right, when the gold market is right, when our shares are better, when their shares are better, whatever have you, the patient philosophy, it’s great. Randgold are famous for being superb operators. And I’ve known Mark for many, many years. He’s one of the most honorable and ethical people I’ve ever met. So, we’re extremely comfortable with having Barrick as partners. We think they’d be great. But I don’t walk in Barrick shoes. And they have a portfolio that spans the entire globe. They will have, after they’ve done their reviews, whatever priorities they choose to have and that will be their business. It’s for any individual that are willing to part with their half of this project, we would be very happy to work with them, because remember we have a right to first refusal, to be able to make sure that this asset is in great hands. It’s our very considered belief that there would be multiple bidders for this asset. We would have no problem with any of a number of them. So, for us, there would be a sales process that would be China like, but the attributes of Donlin that make it imperative to any major mining or medium-size mining company. It’s only going to attract more investor interest to a very closely held company at this point. If on the other hand, they choose to stay, then I would speculate that knowing Mark and how shareholder-friendly he is, as our share price would rise, he would make sure that all of the analysts of NOVAGOLD and Barrick’s gold would give him credit for what’s now an apples-to-apples valuation between our half of Donlin and theirs. Either way, it’s good for shareholders. Anything that allows us to have a partner, whether it’s Barrick or whomever, will be accretive to us, because we have the best story in the space. We have the safest story for investors, who want long-term leverage, but don’t want to have to take a short or medium-term view on when gold will kick in and begin the next leg of the bull market. So when we look at it, it’s win-win. Any statement that makes our shares more publicly assessed is going to be very positive for us. As much as we love going and talking about the asset where, by definition, the one who steps into their space, starts talking about virtues and they have a bigger phone than we do, you’re going to be hearing Tom Kaplan in stereo and that’s a terrible thing. One Tom Kaplan may be enough, but in stereo, I just sound hell of a lot better. So we look forward to the future with a tremendous amount of optimism. We feel that every business has been checked, every promise has been kept, every payment that we’ve made, whether it’s to our shareholders on the ground in Alaska, through to our shareholders, the federal, state governments, our analysts, all of them have been maintained with absolute fidelity. The one that is going to be icing on the cake for the next phase of the market, understanding what kind of an asset Donlin is, is just an added blessing and we welcome it. With that, I say thank you to our shareholders, those who follow us. And, as you know, we love getting questions. Please throw them. And if you don’t get to ask on this call, give a shout to Melanie, Greg, myself, any of the team, are always happy to get investor feedback. Thank you very much.