Earnings Labs

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 7, 2014

$89.48

+0.71%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2014 National Fuel Gas Company Earnings Conference Call. My name is Philip, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn over the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Tim Silverstein, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.

Timothy Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you, Philip, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Ron Tanski, President and Chief Executive Officer, Dave Bauer Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer; and Matt Cabell, President of Seneca Resources Corporation. At the end of the prepared remarks, we will open the discussion to questions. This morning, we posted a new slide deck to our Investor Relations website. We may refer to it during today's call. We would like to remind you that today's teleconference will contain forward-looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and you may refer to last evening's earnings release for a listing of certain specific risk factors. With that, we will begin with Ron Tanski.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Well, thanks, Tim, and good morning, everyone. Well, we started our fiscal 2014 with an excellent first quarter. Aside from a few items that Dave Bauer will give us more details about later in the call, the quarter was generally in line with our internal expectations. All of our operating segments are performing pretty much as we laid out during our Analyst Day in November. Operations at Seneca are going extremely well. Efficiencies across the entire operation are increasing, as evidenced by continued decreases in both well completion costs and in Seneca's lifting costs. Matt will cover more of the operational details for this segment in his comments. Major issues that we have to deal with in this segment are commodity pricing and basis differentials. Now you've all seen the recent volatility in daily spot pricing brought about by some of the recent winter storms. However, the forward Nymex strip prices for natural gas in 2015 and 2016 have barely moved and are still hovering around $4 per MMBtu. In addition, the basis numbers that we've seen in Appalachia are generally anywhere from minus $0.85 to minus $1.85. Matt has some comments about our plans to deal with those basis issues, but with what we're seeing in the forward market, it's likely that will keep our rig count in Pennsylvania constant through this fiscal year. Even with the steady rig count, because of the efficiencies that we've been able to achieve, we are affirming our production guidance for fiscal 2014. And the midpoint of that guidance reflects a 28% increase over fiscal 2013 production. Weather in our utility service territory during the first quarter was only a few percent colder than normal but more than 11% colder than the previous year. That cold weather increased throughput on our utility system…

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst

Thanks, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Seneca had another good quarter. Production for the quarter was 37.1 Bcfe or 51% higher than last year's first quarter. In California, production was up slightly and we are expecting a further increase in the current quarter as the CESP pipeline issue has been resolved. CESP production is now up to 1,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day as compared to 1,100 2 months ago. At South Lost Hills, we are drilling our second fiscal '14 horizontal Monterey Shale well. Both of these 2 wells will be frac-ed and tested in the third quarter. We also have drilling planned at CESP, South Midway Sunset and East Coalinga fields. For the fiscal year, we expect California production to grow by about 5% versus fiscal '13. In Kansas, we've completed our first horizontal well and are drilling our second. The first well is testing and the second will be frac-ed next month. We should have production rates and EUR estimates by next earnings call. In the East division, production was up 64% in the first quarter, as we brought on additional Tract 100 wells. Another Tract 100 pad came on just a few weeks ago and our total Marcellus net production is now over 350 million cubic feet per day. The 6 new wells at Pad N came on at an average 24-hour peak rate of 15.6 million cubic feet per day, 5 of these wells were completed in the Marcellus and one in the Upper Devonian Geneseo Shale. The Geneseo well looks like a good well, but as expected, it is not as good as the Marcellus due to lower reservoir pressure and less gas in place. When we have a bit more production history, we will disclose IP rate, 30 day rate and EUR.…

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. As Ron said, the first quarter was a great start to the fiscal year. Our $0.97 of earnings were up $0.16 per share or 20% over last year's quarter, with all segments contributing to our improved results. Earnings for the quarter also exceeded our internal forecast and there were 3 somewhat unusual items that contributed to that outperformance. First, at the Utility, we recorded a $2.3 million out of period regulatory adjustment. Second, at Seneca, we booked a $1.9 million mark-to-market gain related to the ineffective portion of our crude oil hedges. And lastly, at National Fuel Resources, our non-regulated energy marketing subsidiary, we had a change in the way we recorded revenue. Previously, NFR's revenues were recorded on a 1-month lag. But this quarter, as a result of a recommendation from our auditors, we began recording an accrual for unbilled revenue. As a result, NFR's first quarter includes an extra month of margin or about $1.9 million. While none of these items is significant individually, they all go in the same direction and in aggregate contributed nearly $0.05 per share to earnings. The remainder of our outperformance is attributable to our midstream businesses, which had a very strong quarter. In particular, as Ron mentioned earlier, our regulated pipelines have seeing terrific demand for capacity from both producers and for marketers that are responding to colder weather and available basis spreads In addition to the larger projects we've built, our marketing team has done a great job selling every last bit of available space on our system. As a result, revenues for the quarters were a couple million dollars higher than we had planned and we expect this trend will continue into the second quarter. For the full fiscal year, we expect Pipeline and…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Holly Stewart with Howard Weil.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Maybe, Ron, just first, on kind of Marcellus' hole in realizations, this is probably going to be hot topic for some time. There's just been a ton of volatility and all the different pricing points in the East, obviously due to weather. Can you just maybe just give us some color on what you guys are actually seeing out there? I guess, with lower storage levels, we would have thought, maybe, some of these differentials would have closed a bit at the different pricing points, it hasn't. So just any kind of color you could give us.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Sure. You might have thought that, Holly, and that -- conventional -- well, just sitting back and looking at it, that might seem like it should happen. But what we're seeing with everyone using their firm capacity, all the pipelines are pretty well full, moving FT gas. And for spot sales, to the extent you don't have that firm capacity and you're just trying to get into a pipeline anywhere, you're stuck with the spot pricing, which can be anywhere, as I mentioned in my comments, the differentials that we were seeing for term contracts were anywhere from $0.80 to $1.85, less the NYMEX. In some cases, they were a couple of dollars less than NYMEX. So it's really a matter, as Matt said, of not enough takeaway capacity with all the pipelines full, moving contract gas. That's the biggest cause for that phenomenon.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, great. And then, Dave, I guess, you mentioned at the end, a lot of different comments on commitments and hedges. I know, initially, in your guidance, you had a $0.75 differential on non-contracted sales. Had did you do versus that during the first quarter?

David P. Bauer

Analyst

The first quarter we actually weren't too far off from our -- from that assumption. It was a little weaker than that, but not dramatically so.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Just sub $1? Fair?

David P. Bauer

Analyst

Yes. That'd be, say, between $0.75 to $1, depending on the pipeline.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Just to add to that, Holly, recognize that there are times when we curtail because the differential is too big in the spot market. So if you actually averaged what the differential was during the quarter, it would be bigger than that, but our realized differential was about $1.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So did you curtail anything during 1Q?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

We curtailed about 2 Bcf during the quarter.

Holly Stewart - Howard Weil Incorporated, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then, maybe, just on the marketing division, can you talk about the dynamic in that business right now? Just with the volatility out there, it looks like your 1Q volumes are the largest we've seen in that business. I didn't know if there was any way to kind of capture some of that spread in that business.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

I think, again, that business is based primarily on longer-term contracts with customers at fixed prices. So basically, NFR goes out and matches up hedges to cover its fixed price sales, so that the margin is pretty well set in that business. And what you're seeing in terms of volume is just an increase in -- as a result of the weather.

David P. Bauer

Analyst

And the accounting change.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst

Or -- and the accounting change.

David P. Bauer

Analyst

So remember, Holly, that's going to include -- the volumes will include 4 months' worth of the volumes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timm Schneider with ISI group.

Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · ISI group.

I guess, as a follow-up to Holly's question, this is more macro-specific, I mean, what really needs to happen up in the Marcellus in order to fix these bases issues? Specifically, there's been a lot of talk on moving gas to the Midcontinent, moving gas down Southeast, moving gas up north to Canada and moving gas potentially to New England. Which of these options do you kind of see as the most viable, and maybe the most viable, for National Fuel Gas? And have you guys had any conversations with pipeline companies in terms of signing up for, I'd say, longer-term contract than some of this? And then, I have a follow-up.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · ISI group.

Well, I mean -- I guess, Timm, all of those options are viable. The question is how quickly can they happen. As we mentioned, we've signed up on Atlantic Sunrise with Transco that moves gas down to the Southeast, but that's a...

David P. Bauer

Analyst · ISI group.

2017.

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · ISI group.

2017 project. All of National Fuel Gas Supply Company's projects, which move gas either back to Canada or, again, down to the Texas Eastern project, those are a couple of years out. So it's really just a matter of getting the pipe in the ground. Longer term, the New England market probably is the largest market, but again, the more -- most difficult to get contracts signed up with shippers for a long-term contract. So it's just -- things that we're constantly working on. We've given as much visibility as we can with respect to our pipeline projects, but if you look at the slide deck, you can see those are only a couple of years out because it -- but we're constantly working for even more projects in the future.

Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · ISI group.

Got it. Can you remind us what the -- what's the tariff that you guys are paying on Atlantic Sunrise.

David P. Bauer

Analyst · ISI group.

I don't think that's been disclosed yet.

Timm A. Schneider - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · ISI group.

How about the one on the Niagara Expansion?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · ISI group.

Yes, I mean, that's still early on. It's -- I mean...

David P. Bauer

Analyst · ISI group.

I don't think that's been disclosed either, have you?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · ISI group.

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carl Kirst with BMO Capital.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · BMO Capital.

Just maybe following up on Timm and Holly, and the bases as Holly said hot topic. Just back of the envelope math and assuming I heard you correctly, Ron, that we're looking at an extra -- that the Clermont to Chippawa was an incremental 100 million a day for basically an extra $100 million. You kind of slap some multiples on that and I would think you're probably looking at around the $0.40 range versus say for instance something Atlantic Sunrise which I guess would be much higher than that. And I guess, maybe the question is, with respect to that, are there any more $0.35, $0.40 type of expansions left? Or is everything from this point forward, such in the way of new build or greenfield that, that minimum $0.85 that you had quoted earlier basically now becomes the new floor for incremental FT?

Ronald J. Tanski

Analyst · BMO Capital.

Well, I mean, that's certainly what you see for the new builds and any kind of a project that you're going to be getting out there for sizable capacity, big capacity adds. I mean, you're talking about major length projects. So yes, I mean, it has the tweaking, let's say, of the system that we already have, get finished. You are looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $0.85 for transportation costs on new build pipelines.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · BMO Capital.

Okay, and I appreciate the color. And then, Matt, just with respect to the 4 to 5 delineation wells that are planned for the Marcellus through the year, how should we think of that, one, as far as timing, basically a new well drilled every 60, 90 days sort of going forward? And how long will it take to sort of get first result, at least in the public sphere?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst · BMO Capital.

We're on one of them now, the Sulger Farms well. So we'll have a test of that well by probably early fourth quarter. The others are all likely to be late this fiscal year or maybe even into the fall.

Carl L. Kirst - BMO Capital Markets U.S.

Analyst · BMO Capital.

As far as public information or as far as actually drilling?

Matthew D. Cabell

Analyst · BMO Capital.

As far as having them frac-ed and tested. So yes, public information.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude the question-and-answer session of today's call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tim Silverstein for closing remarks.

Timothy Silverstein

Analyst

Thank you, Philip. We'd like to thank everyone for taking the time to be with us today. A replay of this call will be available at approximately 3 p.m. Eastern Time on both our website and by telephone and will run through the close of business on Friday, February 14, 2014. To access the replay online, visit our Investor Relations website at investor.nationalfuelgas.com. And to access by telephone, call 1 (888) 286-8010 and enter passcode 73413175. This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you, and goodbye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you, all for your participation. You may all now disconnect. Have a wonderful week.