David P. Bauer
Analyst · Becca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors
Thanks, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our results for the quarter. As you saw in last night's release, we had another terrific quarter with earnings and EBITDA up in each of our major operating segments. Consolidated earnings of $0.69 per share were up by 1/3 compared to last year, and that's in spite the $0.06 per share income tax charge at Seneca. Consolidated EBITDA increased by more than 30%. Seneca had a really great quarter. Thanks to the impressive wells at Tract 100, production was up 54% compared to last year's quarter and, on a sequential basis, up 18% compared to the second quarter of this year. That production increase, combined with an increase in after hedging, oil and gas prices, was the primary driver behind the $0.12 per share or 45% increase in Seneca's earnings. On the expense side, per unit DD&A expense of $1.97 per Mcfe was down significantly from both last year and from the second quarter of this year. This was driven by a substantial reserve add to Tract 100, combined with pricing and performance-related revisions across our Appalachian acreage. Per unit LOE expense was up $0.08 per Mcfe over last year, largely due to higher transportation costs at Tract 100 and higher well workover and steaming costs in California. With respect to the transportation costs, the rates on the Trout Run system in Lycoming County are higher than on the Covington system, and thus, as Seneca produces more gas from Tract 100, we expect transportation costs to shift a little bit higher. Keep in mind that these costs are paid to our NFG midstream subsidiary, which saw a similar jump in earnings. NFG Midstream is becoming a more meaningful piece of the company. It generated substantially all of the $9.6 million of EBITDA we reported for the quarter in the all other category in our earnings release. Per unit G&A expense dropped by an impressive $0.13 per Mcfe on the strength of Seneca's increased production. Seneca's effective income tax rate for the quarter was unusually high at 49%, due to a $5 million, or $0.06 per share, adjustment to our deferred tax liabilities. Under the accounting rules, we're required to regularly reevaluate the effective rate used to calculate the deferred tax balances on our balance sheet. As our level of activity in Pennsylvania has grown, a greater percentage of our consolidated income has become subject to income tax in Pennsylvania, which at nearly 10%, has the higher corporate income tax rate of all the states in which we operate. While we're not paying current income taxes in Pennsylvania as a result of our tax clause, and we don't expect to for a while, we were required to make an upward adjustment to the rate we used to value our deferred tax balances, which increased our deferred tax expense. Looking forward, I expect our overall consolidated effective income tax rate for fiscal '13 and '14 will be in the range of 40% to 41%. The regulated companies had a good quarter as well. Earnings in the Pipeline and Storage segment were up $0.02 per share, largely on the strength of our recent expansion projects. Colder weather and a slight uptick in normalized usage per account in our Pennsylvania service territory caused utility earnings to grow by $0.03 per share. On the strength of our third quarter results and Seneca's increased production forecast, we're increasing and tightening our fiscal 2013 earnings guidance to a range of $3 to $3.10 per share. In terms of pricing, we are assuming NYMEX commodity prices of $3.50 for gas and $100 for oil for the remainder of the fiscal year. Our previous earnings guidance was $2.95 to $3.10 per share and assumed $4 gas and $85 oil. Our initial earnings guidance for fiscal '14 is a range of $3.05 to $3.30 per share. That guidance assumes Seneca's updated production forecast of 134 Bcfe to 146 Bcfe and flattened NYMEX pricing of $90 for oil and $4 for natural gas. In terms of realized natural gas prices, our forecast assumes the firm sales contracts that are summarized in the new IR deck that was posted on our website this morning. For production not subject to a firm sales contract, it assumes that the Dominion South Point Index trades at a $0.10 to $0.20 discount to NYMEX. While that basic assumption is in line with historic levels, it's a bit better than the current market. We expect that as a couple of large expansion projects on the Tennessee and Transco systems come online this fall, Dominion-based should return to recent historical levels. We've included a pricing sensitivity table in our earnings release that you can use to gauge the impact of different pricing assumptions. One last point on our firm sales agreements. Under those contracts, Seneca sells its production from Tioga and Lycoming Counties at the interconnection of NFG Midstream's gathering lines and the interstate pipeline network. Seneca doesn't typically hold firm capacity on the Transco or Tennessee systems, but is instead entered into sales agreements whereby it's effectively utilizing the firm capacity of various third parties. Therefore, when you're evaluating the sales prices summarized in the slide deck, remember that the prices represent Seneca's netback to the NFG midstream delivery point and, thus, reflect the cost of downstream transportation. While this ends up reducing our realized price for natural gas, our transportation expense, which is included within LOE, is likewise lower than it otherwise would have been. From an expense standpoint, we expect Seneca's 2014 per unit DD&A, LOE, production tax and G&A rates will all be in line with our third quarter rates. As a result of Seneca's increased production, NFG Midstream's earnings and cash flows should increase as well. For 2013, we expect NFG Midstream's revenue will be $55 million to $60 million, up from the $30 million to $35 million that we're currently forecasting for fiscal '13. Operating expenses will increase somewhat, as we add compression to the Trout Run system, but a large portion of the revenue increase will fall to the bottom line. You should note, too, that Midstream's forecast is based solely on Seneca's forecast volumes and doesn't assume third-party volumes. Turning to the regulated businesses, fiscal '14 will likely be a relatively flat year for the Pipeline and Storage segment. As you know, fiscal '13 capital spending in this segment was lighter than in prior years, with most occurring early in the year to wrap up some larger expansion projects. Thus, there aren't any major new projects that will come online within the next fiscal year. Fiscal 2014 will benefit from a full year of the Northern Access and Line N 2012 projects, but those increases will likely be offset by a small amount of recontracting and other capacity turnbacks that we expect in our legacy Supply and Empire systems. Lastly, with respect to the Utility, we're expecting a bit of a decline in that segment's earnings in fiscal 2014. Our forecast assumes normal weather in our utility service territory and a modest increase in operating costs. Our guidance also assumes we conclude the show cause order proceeding in our New York jurisdiction. We've commenced settlement discussions in that case and are continuing to dialogue with all of the parties involved in the proceeding. Turning to capital spending, our fiscal '13 budget of $710 million to $820 million is unchanged from our previous update. For fiscal '14, our consolidated budget is now a range of $790 million to $940 million. A breakdown of the consolidated total is as follows: $550 million to $650 million in the E&P segment; $80 million to $100 million in the Pipeline and Storage segment; another $80 million to $100 million from non-regulated gathering projects at NFG Midstream; and $80 million to $90 million at the Utility. The increase from our previous $65 million to $70 million range at the Utility reflects greater visibility on both the cost and timing of the replacement of our customer billing system. Financing needs in 2014 should be modest. Based on our earnings and capital spending guidance, we expect capital spending will outpace cash from operations by a small amount, say, in the $25 million to $50 million range. Add to that our dividend, and we're looking at a financing requirement in the $150 million to $175 million range, which can easily be accommodated by our balance sheet. Our next long-term debt maturity isn't until the spring of 2018. Lastly, with regard to our hedging program, for the remainder of fiscal '13, our gas production is about 72% hedged and oil about 50% hedged. For fiscal '14 we're hedged in the low 50% area for gas and mid-60s for oil. If the market cooperates, we'll look at added natural gas positions, with the goal of being at least 60% hedged prior to October 1. With that, I'll close and turn it over to Matt.