Earnings Labs

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 31, 2014

$679.02

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the NewMarket Corporation Fourth Quarter 2013 and Year End Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. David Fiorenza. Thank you. Mr. Fiorenza, you may now begin.

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Thanks, Rob. Thanks, everyone for joining Teddy and me today to discuss our fourth quarter and year end performance. As a reminder, some of the comments we will make today are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We believe we base our statements on reasonable expectations and assumptions within the bounds of what we know about our business and operations. However, we offer no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from our expectations due to uncertainties and factors that are difficult to predict and beyond our control. A full discussion of those risk factors can be found in our 2012 10-K. We intend to file our 10-K towards the end of February. It will contain significantly more details on the operations and performance of our company. Please take time to review it. As it is very informative and represents the hard work of many of our finance team members. I will be referring to the data that was included in last night's release. For the most part, I will focus on the performance of the fourth quarter. All comparisons I mention will be the fourth quarter of '13 to the fourth quarter of '12, unless I indicate otherwise. We had an excellent fourth quarter, and as a matter of fact, it was a record fourth quarter. Our net income was $54 million, which calculates to earnings per share of $4.08. These results reflect record operating profit by our performing -- our petroleum additive segment. Net income for the fourth quarter of '12 was $53.1 million or $3.94 per share. As a result of the sale of the assets of Foundry Park, our Real Estate Development segment in 2013, we reclassified the results of operations in current and prior year periods…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Todd Vencil of Sterne Agee. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: It feels like the volume growth after being sort of a little lackluster in the first half picked up in the third quarter and then a little more in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about maybe whether it feels that way or whether this is just noise and what you're seeing there?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

Sure, Todd. It's -- I think we've expressed in the past that it's pretty hard for us to read anything into a single quarter or even a couple of quarters in terms of a trend. We just see balance in our quarters. We did mention that we think the industry volume outlook remains unchanged in the, I'll say, 2% range of growth a year. The industry as a whole is coming off of a few weak years in the 2009, 2012, kind of timeframe. My gut feel is that industry growth is pretty solid right now and I'm encouraged by what I'm hearing about the worldwide marketplace. There is weak spots, there is strong spots, but overall, I feel pretty good about where our market is right now, and our place in it. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: On the pricing front, are you guys looking at anything or can you see anything that's going to suggest a direction there over the next year or so? Or does everything look pretty much flattish?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Todd, as we discussed before, you should think of pricing as pass through, but last year was very, very benign on raw materials. And the only other thing on pricing is when we introduced new products into the marketplace, and then we deal with the pricing of their value to those. But to answer your question directly, I would expect it to be pretty quiet for the next period of time. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: And then final one for me. You mentioned -- you gave us guidance on the cash -- on the CapEx for the year, I appreciate that. And, you said, it's going to remain elevated. Should we expect it to be in that sort of triple digit millions range for the next couple of years? Or is it not getting quite that high?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Yes, I think that would be -- you should think it will be in that $80 million to $100 million kind of range for the next several years, yes. L. Todd Vencil - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: So with -- maybe a little bit higher in '14?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

'14 probably will be on the upper end of that range, yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Ivan Marcuse of KeyBanc.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Real quick, raw material trends continue to, I think, you may have just talked about this, but raw material trends quarter-to-quarter, has been pretty stable, you've seen base oil will come down, so would you expect it to be a little bit of a tailwind in the first half of the year? Or how do you think about it?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

When we look at our raw material experience last year, and I'll answer your question in a second. It was one of the quietest years I can remember on raw materials. And yes, you're right, some things go down and other things go up. So in the fourth quarter, it was very quiet for us.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Great and then looking out because I know, but there has been some decreases in base oil over the announcements. Do you see that flow in through in the first half of the year? Or is there other stuff that's going up that's going to offset that, so it should be -- for what you could tell right now are pretty -- remain pretty benign.

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Yes, for all I can tell you is our planning base and our best view is, it will be very quiet again in '15 -- in '14.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And I understand that R&D spend, and you guys spend money to make money, would you expect that spend of the sort of in the mid-teens to at least remain -- at least for a full year -- that trend to remain over '14, '15? Or do you think that spending comes in or there's a couple of things that needed to be done this year, that maybe not -- maybe does not have to be done next year?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Are you asking about the rate of increase?

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Yes. So you spent 16% more dollars?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

We anticipate spending more this year. But I wouldn't expect it to be the same kind of percent increase.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then, there's-- there has been a lot of chatter about Europe, sort of stabilizing demands and increasing all that much, but have you seen sort of European -- if you go through your different regions, is European volumes getting a little bit more stable or improving from what you can tell, and is there -- and how is South America looking for -- in regards to you -- as I know that's been a fairly strong point -- strong region?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Yes, as you know, we now will be publishing that in the 10-K. And when you see that, you will see that Europe had a very good year. In our numbers, Europe is -- Europe, Middle East, Asia, Africa about 8%, 9%, 10% kind of revenue improvements. Asia had another very good year. North America was relatively flattish, which is what you expect. And then Latin America was down somewhat.

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Why would you think -- why would Europe be -- have such a strong year there, because everyone else, chemical wise, it's maybe stable, but it's been generally down, so what do you think that was different for you versus maybe the industry overall?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

In Latin America?

Ivan M. Marcuse - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Europe.

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Europe. I don't know, to answer that. I have been in -- and by the way, I said India a minute ago, I meant Asia, when I was talking about the region. I thought the way round, I'm sorry. I headed backwards again. I can't attribute to any one thing other than that region includes a pretty expansive geographic area.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Dmitry Silversteyn with Longbow.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Couple of questions, if I may. First of all, in the fourth quarter results, the offsetting foreign exchange and pricing that was down a little bit and offsetting what looked to be very strong volumes, was it mostly foreign exchange or was it mostly price, can you give us an idea there and on the price? Was it sort of mix or was it an outright price decline?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

I'm looking for that. I think, each of them was about $2 million. So they're both very, very small. And it is mix.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

$2 million -- so it's mix, not so much price. Okay. The expansion in Singapore and Asia, I know you've mentioned that it adds relatively little to your global supply or your global capacity, but as you know, there are other players in the region that are expanding their capacities in Asia as well, so as you sort of look at the areas -- at the products that you're bringing online and at the product groups that your competitors are bringing online, is there a concern that, that capacity in the region, at least temporarily, may be a little excessive or are you sort of playing in different enough sandboxes with these capacity expansions where you should not be stepping on each others' toes?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

A couple of comments so on that. We really do price on value, and with all of the investments we've been making in technology, that will continue to be the case. I'll point out though that just from an overall supply and demand standpoint in the industry, even with modest 1% to 2% industry growth, the industry does need new capacity, and we don't foresee any significant change in the supply and demand balance based on announced and existing new capacity.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

You're spending a lot on R&D and justifiably so in this -- what I would [indiscernible] industry. Can you update us on sort of the productivity of R&D, however you keep track of it, I mean some people talk about vitality index or sales from recently launched products, is there a metric that you track your R&D productivity on and can you give us an idea of how that metric has changed over the last couple of years?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

We use a number of metrics. One of the more common one is the percent of sales from new products, and I believe about half of our products sold in 2013 were developed in the last 5 years. We're pleased with the productivity of our technology investment. We've expanded our technical capabilities around the world, with more capability in Asia, in particular, Japan and China, and I'm confident in our team to continue to be with -- to use the investment we make in them very wisely.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

And then final question. Sort of trying to revisit the first question that was asked on the call, that the strength in volumes in the second half of the year, it's 2 quarters in a row that, that volumes have been pretty strong in the third and fourth quarter. So I'm just wondering if that's a particular market that is doing well for you, whether it's passenger vehicles or stationary or non-passenger transportation, is it some share gains in your existing markets, sort of what -- how sustainable is this improvement that you've seen. Can you at least see it carry over to the first half of 2014? Or maybe there's been some prebuying ahead of anticipated price increases, I'm not sure, I'm just trying to understand how an industry as you're saying, that's growing at 1% to 2%, and your long-term growth rate is at 4%, can deliver an 8% to 9% volume quarter and a 6% volume quarter, the quarter before?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

I think you just answered your own question with the last comments. It's not an 8% growth industry. And, we just -- to really dig into it, we'd have to go back and explain those quarters in 2012 versus the year before. We just see variation in the quarterly shipments, and there's a lot of reasons behind them and no one reason in particular to explain it. I did say I'm feeling good about the health of our customers and the overall volume direction of the industry, but it's certainly not an 8% growth market nor are our aspirations to grow at that rate ad infinitum.

Dmitry Silversteyn - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

One more question, I apologize. You haven't done an acquisition since the Polartech in 2012, can you talk about your acquisition pipeline and your outlook for 2014?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

Sure. The high level answer is, we have nothing new to report. And, we will continue to stress patience. Digging beyond that, we have a lot of activity going on around identifying candidates in petroleum additives, and seeing which ones is the best fit and trying to develop some channels to get things going, but we have nothing new to report on the acquisition pipeline.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next question is from the line of Edward Yang from Oppenheimer. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Maybe just start with David, some modeling questions. On the interest expense, is $4 million a quarter a good run rate. I would've expected interest expense to have come down in the fourth quarter given your net debt position.

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Yes, the fourth quarter is the kind of interest we have in 1 quarter, with no revolver drawn. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. But for 2014, first quarter of '14, would that be around $4 million as well?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Yes, whatever it was in the fourth quarter, 4, 1. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: And on the R&D side, Teddy, you mentioned, you're continuing to increase the spending there, do you look at that R&D bucket as a percentage of revenue or a year-over-year increase, and going forward, what would that be? Over the last 3 years, it's been going up, as a percentage of revenue, about 50 basis points a year?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

Well, tough question to answer. We have a very thorough internal management process on R&D. In terms of managing a portfolio of products, we have a very well established system for tracking the progress of the projects. We do look at macro factors like R&D as a percent of sales. But it's more driven by our view on what it takes to serve our customers, and how are we going to achieve our long-term plans to grow and serve our customers with the modern products that they demand. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: So it's more of a bottoms up process in terms of how you formulate that budget?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

That's right. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Just one more modeling question. The tax rate, what will that be in 2014?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

I'd use 30%. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: 30%. And just final question on supply. Well, Teddy, you mentioned that the industry does need new capacity. So what are current utilization rates? And what do you think the percentage increase in overall industry capacity, I know it's very hard to measure, but by 2015, when your plant comes online, and Oronite's plant come online, what do you think overall industry capacity would've grown by related to where we are at the end of 2013.

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

I can answer that in very general terms. I don't have exact numbers. And I can give you my view on what I think the answer is. As far as capacity utilization goes, it's really all over the map, and it's a difficult question to answer because at various times, certain components and parts of packages are tight, other times the bottleneck will shift. Overall, I would think that the industry and we tend to run in the high 80s as a percent range, pushing 90% of capacity. But that's more of a guess than any sort of empirical answer. And, when I think about new capacity coming on, I think, it's very consistent with the market growth -- that 2% kind of range. Edward H. Yang - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: So 2% a year, around 4% by the end of 2015, when these plants come online. I guess 2% for this year and 2% for next year, but I guess more step wise?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

Well, I would not hold me to those numbers. But I think, directionally, yes, the industry capacity is growing right along with the market growth.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Pat Kelly [ph] with Northcoast Research.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I just wanted to touch back on the strong volume growth in the quarter. I'm just curious, was there any one type -- one-time type of business in there that is not expected to repeat?

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

Nothing comes to mind.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Great. And just my last question was on. I know you elaborated on shipment volumes by geography for the quarter. That was very helpful. But just curious, what's your overall sentiment and outlook for 2014 by region when you exclude North America?

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

As we've discussed in the past, the growth is going to be in Asia, Latin America, Middle East and India. I don't have a crystal ball on each one of those. And when I was speaking earlier about those regions, by the way, I was referring to revenue, not volume.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Fiorenza for any closing comments.

David A. Fiorenza

Analyst

Well, thanks, everyone for joining. And we'll talk to you next time.

Thomas E. Gottwald

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.