Earnings Labs

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 23, 2009

$668.16

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the New Market third quarter 2009 financial results conference call. (Operator instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Mr. David Fiorenza, Vice President, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer for New Market. Thank you Mr. Fiorenza, you may now begin.

David Fiorenza

President

Thank you for joining me to discuss our third quarter and first nine months performance. With me today is Teddy Gottwald, our CEO. I have a few planned comments after which we'll open the lines for any questions. As a reminder, some of the comments we will make today are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We believe we based our statements on reasonable expectations and assumptions within the bounds of what we know about our business and operations. However, we offer no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from our expectations, due to uncertainties and factors that are difficult to predict and beyond our control. A full discussion of these factors can be found in our most recently filed 10-K and 10-Q. We plan to file our 10-Q early next week, please read it for a more detailed explanation of the company’s performance. Net income for the third quarter was $56.7 million or $3.72 a share compared to net income for the third quarter last year of $16.5 million or $1.07 a share. For the first nine months, net income was $116 million or $7.61 a share compared to net income for the same period last year of $53.9 million or $3.48 a share. Net income for both the third quarter and nine months of this year included a charge from recording its fair value in interest rate swap agreement related to financing of Foundry Park. The loss amounted to $2.4 million or $0.16 a share for the third quarter and $9.8 million or $0.64 a share for the nine months Petroleum Additives’ net sales for the third quarter were $414 million, this is $23 million less than last year’s third quarter about a 5% reduction. We are looking…

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer & Co. Please proceed with your question, your mike is now allowed [ph]. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co.: Thanks, good morning. Question on the pricing environment, if you were to look out over the next one to six months or so what pricing you will still be doing it will not be the drivers, thanks.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co

This is Teddy. Right now we are seeing some raw material increases in the marketplace and it is certainly our intent to recover those increases. I do not see any – we are not forecasting any substantial change in the environment over the next six months but it is still a volatile world out there and crude oil is increasing back up so it is just hard to say.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ivan Marcuse with Keybanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question, your mike is now allowed. Ivan Marcuse – Keybanc Capital Markets: Hi guys, great quarter.

David Fiorenza

President

Thank you.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with Keybanc Capital Markets

Thank you. Ivan Marcuse – Keybanc Capital Markets: Teddy you said last quarter that you saw the margins on the operating side being sustainable maybe in the low teens I think is what you said. Now that the margins have increased substantially again in the third quarter, do you still see looking out to 2010, 2011 (inaudible) being in the 11% to 13% range or are you seeing it more probably a little bit higher than that? What is your outlook looking towards that and what kind of profitability do you need to continue investing in the business?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with Keybanc Capital Markets

Ivan that is a good question, yes we think we can do better than the numbers we were talking about in the last call. We would like the margins where they are because they do allow us to reinvest in the business and we have made some debt while doing that in recent days we have expanded our research center here in Richmond. We have opened a new one in Shanghai and David commented on the investment and manufacturing capacity in Singapore. All of these activities should help us to give our customers what they need to compete going forward and the current environment allows us to make investments like that. Ivan Marcuse – Keybanc Capital Markets: You said that you like the margins where they are at, they are like 23% this quarter, do you see them staying in the 20% range over the next – going forward as the long-term outlook or is the bracket more in the high teens or can you quantify this time?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with Keybanc Capital Markets

Really cannot quantify it at this time, the industry fundamentals are strong today and our business is strong today. We have got a lot broader geographic coverage. We have got a much broader product mix than we used to have a more diverse customer base and stronger technology to compete in the market. Ivan Marcuse – Keybanc Capital Markets: So would it be safe to say that looking maybe six months twelve months that the operating margins will probably be close to where you are right now versus the low teen area?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with Keybanc Capital Markets

I do not know honestly. Ivan Marcuse – Keybanc Capital Markets: Alright, great and then David one quick question, FX is probably going to be a tail one for you in the fourth quarter, you know what the dollar is doing right now versus the euro, probably 10% change in the euro, how much does that impact EBIT, do you have any quantification for that?

David Fiorenza

President

I do not mind answering but I do not have that with me. But you are absolutely right, it will be a benefit euro is at 1.50 or so these days and that tends to help us but I would be surprised it is more than a few million dollars. Ivan Marcuse – Keybanc Capital Markets: Okay, great quarter and I will look forward to seeing you next quarter.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Ivan Marcuse with Keybanc Capital Markets

Alright, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Felice with J Goldman & Co. You can proceed with your question, your mike is now allowed. Robert Felice – J Goldman & Co.: Hi guys, I will offer my congrats on an excellent quarter as well.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Robert Felice with J Goldman & Co

Thank you. Robert Felice – J Goldman & Co.: You are welcome. Just one in particular I guess on Ivan’s last question around margins maybe taken from a little different angle, given the value added nature of your products, how receptive do you think your peers are, your competitors as well as your customers to further increases in price in the event that over the next three, six, twelve months raw materials do raise more dramatically?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Robert Felice with J Goldman & Co

I certainly cannot comment on what my competitors are thinking but in the environment that we have experienced over the last really two years now, we have been able to recover raw material cost increases in the marketplace albeit with a lag often. I honestly do not see any macro changes to the industry fundamentals that would make that more or less difficult going forward. Robert Felice – J Goldman & Co.: So with the exception of temporary dynamics around timing and raw material costs that could lead to margin compression, what then would prevent the margins from being sustainable at current levels?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Robert Felice with J Goldman & Co

Just the normal pushs and pulls in the marketplace, the normal variations in volume and unforeseen things I have not thought about yet which just prevent me from telling you I am confident they are going to stay where they are. Robert Felice – J Goldman & Co.: Okay, okay, fair enough. Did you see any pre-buying this year in the third quarter ahead of the hurricane season and to what extent if you did you think that pulled [ph] volume from the fourth quarter into the third quarter?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Robert Felice with J Goldman & Co

We tend to see that more in the springtime, more at the beginning of the season than now and we think there was certainly some of that going on but I think David may have commented we believe the stocking and de-stocking is relatively stable right now and we are looking at a fairly good picture as best as we can tell what the market is doing without those extra influences. Robert Felice – J Goldman & Co.: Okay, great. Thanks for taking my question.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Robert Felice with J Goldman & Co

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Todd Vencil with Davenport & Company. Please proceed with your question, your mike is now allowed. Todd Vencil – Davenport & Co.: Thanks, good morning guys.

David Fiorenza

President

Good morning.

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Davenport & Company

Good morning. Todd Vencil – Davenport & Co.: Coming back to margins again, everybody is just trying to wrap their heads around this and think about how to think about it I think. Teddy, you sort of took your mid-cycle estimate up a bit last quarter, taken it up again a bit this quarter, but still it would seem to imply that that mid cycle estimate is kind of a low 23% you got in the third quarter. So as you look out from there, from where we are now it is kind of a mid cycle number, what is going to be the adjustments that is going to take you from 23% to whatever that mid cycle number is, somewhere above I guess the low teens number you said last quarter, where do you think pressure comes from if anywhere?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Davenport & Company

Todd, pressure comes from sort of the usual spot and volumes, mix, foreign exchange, competitive action there is just a lot of pushs and pulls in there as well as – certainly the impact of volume on plant loading can have a significant impact. Typically the fourth quarter volumes are lighter than the second and third so I am just very hesitant to try to predict what they are going to be. Todd Vencil – Davenport & Co.: When you look at demand out there as it is recovered and you talk about stocking and de-stocking but can you tell in terms of sort of true secular growth where is a lot of demand being driven by now to what part of your business?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Davenport & Company

Certainly geographically China and Asia is where the largest growth is. When we look at the underlying demand we were encouraged that the third quarter demand was then, let us say, 3%, last third quarter it was kind of a good measure since it was before the financial turmoil and really 3% in a quarter for us is kind of hard to measure when you consider timing of shipments, revenue recognition is on a number of factors. But I think it is the beginning of the year we indicated our view that because of worldwide recession we were looking at underlying demand being off in the 5% to 8% range. The third quarter would indicate the lower end of that range, one quarter does not make a trend but we still think probably 5% give or take is a good number for underlying demand in the industry and then as we go forward we still think that 0% to 2% growth kind of year on year is what the industry is shaping up over the next handful of years. Todd Vencil – Davenport & Co.: Okay. I appreciate that. For both of you I guess David you talk about acquisitions being sort of a favored use of capital, you have internal opportunities, you also talked about return of capital to shareholders, share buybacks, raise your dividend, etc, as you sort of look out and take the first one, have you seen any change in the last three months and the acquisition opportunity space has it gotten better, has it gotten worse, can you talk about that?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Davenport & Company

Within the Petroleum Additives industry I would not say it has really changed. There is just not that many opportunities that come along and the ones that do typically are relatively small under $100 million. We continue to focus on that aspect from an acquisition standpoint but we are also starting to put some additional attention beyond Petroleum Additives just to learn more and just to see what else is out there. Our preference would be Petroleum Additives but we know how to produce and develop and sell especially chemicals. So we will look a little bit broader now. Todd Vencil – Davenport & Co.: Okay, interesting. On the raws, you mentioned that some of them is getting tight, any sort of theme as to which ones are getting tight coming out of any sort of specific suppliers and how much of an impact does that have at this point?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Todd Vencil with Davenport & Company

No. If there is a theme, the theme is that with overall specialty chemicals in general around the world being off volume wise it has really changed the way that refineries are running their operation and despite the reduction in volume, each stock going into specialty chemicals had been cut quite a bit by the refiners. So there is just some unusual tightness in certain places as a result of that. Todd Vencil – Davenport & Co.: Got it. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shyamo Saduken [ph] with Meredith Funds [ph]. Please proceed with your question, your mike is now allowed. Mr. Saduken, your line is now allowed. Shyamo Saduken – Meredith Funds: Hi, my question has to do with margins in the third quarter versus the second quarter. So it seems like margins in the third quarter, gross margin actually (inaudible) over margin in the second quarter but base oil prices were higher in the third quarter than they were in the second quarter. So can you explain why even with higher raw material cost in the third quarter you were able to get a higher margin on the gross margin line than you were in the second quarter?

David Fiorenza

President

Yes, this is David. The contributing factors to that expansion were a couple. You were right about raw materials. We had more volume we communicated 15% more which helps the plant loading and on a quarter to quarter sequential basis we had an unusual benefit of foreign exchange just how things developed and that added a fair number of million dollars to that comparison. So those are the components, plant loading and foreign exchange. Shyamo Saduken – Meredith Funds: I see. The other thing I wanted to ask about is in terms of where industry pricing is right now, on the one hand raw materials cost are way down from the peak when the well was trading close to $150 a barrel but on the other hand obviously we are off the lows in terms of raw materials pricing that we had in March and April. So are you at this point seeing price increases meaning towards increasing prices from your customers or are you seeing pressure on the rise meaning they are coming back to you and asking for a (inaudible)?

David Fiorenza

President

I am not really sure I understand the question. We are seeing pressure from our suppliers with costs going up. Shyamo Saduken – Meredith Funds: I mean on the prices that you are able to charge your customers, are you able to increase pricing? Is the trend of pricing increasing right now or is the trend of pricing stable or decreasing from the prices that you are able to charge your customers?

David Fiorenza

President

I would say they are increasing modestly. Shyamo Saduken – Meredith Funds: Okay, thanks. That is all I have.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer & Co. Please proceed with your question, your mike is now allowed. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co.: Great, thank you. Just a follow-up, I know you guys are always talking about kind of 10% margin as being I guess you can call it the boggy, if there is over 10% – or it is right there has been no capacity added over the past couple of years as really (inaudible) margins over 10%, now we are starting to see them creep over 10%, you are doing a plant in Singapore, is there any other capacity in the industry that can potentially come alive that can maybe keep you up on that?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co

No, not really. We tend to be fairly conservative Ian when we are talking to you and when we are under 10% we are going to talk about 10% because that is attractive to us and it is directionally right. I do not really think that 10% was a magic number but it was certainly in the right direction when we were not there. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay and I guess one of the arguments for seeing the better margins or better than expected margins is because of this tight supply demand situation on your end. But as far as capacity, has there not been any incremental capacity that you can add to the industry over the past year or two years so I am just curious why we are seeing this large margin expansion today versus let us just say two years ago and this is why demand calculations are very similar or even a year ago before the (inaudible) was started by the Congress?

Teddy Gottwald

Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co

There are a number of elements to that. Certainly there has been growth in demand through this period and we have also had a two-year period of havoc with raw materials and crude oil sky rocketing and then coming down and now going back again. So there has been a lot of issues to deal with, it just had not been a steady state. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay that is helpful, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Fiorenza, there are no further questions at this time.

David Fiorenza

President

Thank you very much for joining us. We will talk to you next quarter. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you all for your participation. Have a wonderful day.