Earnings Labs

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 18, 2016

$109.90

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Newmont Mining Fourth Quarter and 2015 Year End Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be on a listen-only mode until we open for question and answers. Today's conference is being recorded. If anyone has any objections, please disconnect at this time. I'd now like to turn the call over to Meredith Bandy, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

Meredith H. Bandy - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

All right, thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Newmont's fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings conference call. Joining us on the call today are Gary Goldberg, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Laurie Brlas, Chief Financial Officer. They and other members of our executive team will be available to answer questions at the end of the call. Turning to slide two, please take a moment to review the cautionary statement shown here or refer to our SEC filings, which can be found on our website, newmont.com. And now, I'll turn it over to Gary on slide three. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Meredith, and thank you for joining us this morning. I'm pleased to report that we ended 2015 with safer and more efficient operations, a stronger portfolio, and a more resilient balance sheet. This performance is the outcome of our work to instill greater discipline in how we manage our business, to make value our watchword, and to drive accountability deeper into the organization. While economic growth and metal prices were generally subdued in 2015, we made measurable progress on our strategy to become the world's leading gold business by improving our underlying business from safety to productivity to cost, strengthening our portfolio and creating value by funding our highest-margin projects, reducing debt and paying steady dividends. I'll turn to slide four for the highlights. Starting at our operations, last year, we lowered injury rates by 18% to among the lowest in the mining sector. We reduced our gold all-in sustaining costs by 10%, marking six consecutive quarters of keeping them below $1,000 per ounce, and we increased gold production to 5 million ounces and copper production to 166,000 tons on an attributable basis. Moving to our portfolio, we…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Mr. Andrew Quail of Goldman Sachs. Sir, your line is now open. Andrew C. Quail - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Morning, Gary, Laurie, and Tony. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is pretty easy. Can you guys just confirm what you actually spent at Merian in the quarter? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: What our actual capital spend was for the fourth quarter at Merian? Andrew C. Quail - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Yes. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'm going to have to look that up here real quick because I don't have it at my fingertips. But we'll come back to that and look it up. Andrew C. Quail - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Next one is just on Yanacocha. Could you just, I suppose, comment on what you expect, not on a tonnage perspective, but more so on a grade perspective going forward, especially in 2016, not on production, but just on grade? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Just to answer your first question, on 100% basis, we're about $102 million at Merian. And I'm going to ask Chris Robison to cover where we stand at Yanacocha grade-wise in 2016 versus prior years. What do we expect grade-wise? Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Andrew, as you know, the grade was expected to drop, and so, our expectation, as you can see, the ounces in 2016 were down in the 500,000-ounce range for 2016. And in the foreseeable future, there's – it's roughly half of where we had been two years ago to three years ago and then…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mr. John Bridges of JPMorgan. Sir, your line is now open.

John D. Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Morning, Gary, Laurie, everybody. I just wondered on the costs, all-in sustaining costs, you're using GAAP to do your numbers. If you were able to use IFRS, would you all reported all-in sustaining costs be lower? What are the issues between the two systems? Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I would say that over time, there wouldn't be any difference. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, there could be some differences as under one, you might capitalize, on another you might expense, but it actually does a lot to equalize things across the two methodologies.

John D. Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Are you doing a lot of stripping at the moment? Are you stripping more than normal or about average? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I wouldn't say – I mean, in Carlin and Twin, we'll have some stripping campaigns over the next couple of years, Carlin currently in one and Twin will come back into one. So those would be the two areas that I'd see any – I wouldn't call it abnormal. It's just a normal part of their mining cycle. Of course, Batu Hijau if we were to get into Phase 7 would be into one of those as well down the road a couple of years.

John D. Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Okay, fine. And then maybe as a follow-on, Yanacocha, you mentioned the sulfides project. I know you're still working on it, but I just wondered if you have more detail there, idea as to what the better options were they? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Not at this stage, John. I think we're still sticking to our schedule of reviewing that with the team in June and have more to talk about it in July.

John D. Bridges - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. We look forward to that. Thanks, Gary, and best of luck. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mr. Stephen Walker of RBC Capital Markets. Sir, your line is now open.

Stephen D. Walker - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Just two questions on strategy. First of all, in 2017, obviously there's likely going to be more development capital allocated than is shown on slide 19. But when you look at capital allocation decisions vis-à-vis organic projects in the feasibility or the pre-feasibility stage versus acquisitions, could you talk a little bit about – and, again, CC&V is a good example of an acquisition that's strategically fit; talk about the balance between acquisition strategies and organic growth, particularly as you go from 2017 into 2018 where production on paper and without the new projects kicking in, stepping down significantly in 2018 from 2017. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: True, Stephen, I think, first of all, step back. Our core focus is on making sure our operations, the business delivers value. So we're not out for a target of a certain number of ounces per se. It's what's going to deliver the best return to shareholders. So that's why you've heard us say we've announced certain projects, talk about return on capital. That's a big focus. And clearly, we understand our internal projects the best generally. So that's a key focus that we look at. But we do take a look at what's available out there around the rest of the world in terms of opportunities. We weight all of our operations, our internal projects and external opportunities on the same value and risk scale where we look at value, NPV, return on capital, mine life and position on the cost curve. We look at risks from a technical and a geopolitical and social risk aspect and really make all the decisions based on that in terms of how we then allocate capital. We're targeting roughly 20% to 25% of our free cash flow today to be paid back in dividends. We're working towards a position of getting our net debt to EBITDA, targeting, as Laurie said, a 1 time ratio at a $1,200 gold price and investing in the business along the way. And as you point out, we're making quite a bit of investment. You see that in our free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2015, and we'll see that in the first half. Primarily, it's front-end loaded in 2016. But that kind of gives you a little overview of where our focus is really driven and what's the best value to shareholders is the main driver.

Stephen D. Walker - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks for that, Gary. Just again as a separate question on strategy, we've talked in the past about synergies or potential synergies between operations in Nevada, and certainly in 2014 there was discussion at that time of a combination with Barrick, which could considerably generate a lot of synergies, particularly in Nevada. Do you see opportunities in Nevada where you could partner with somebody and achieve synergies, whether it's at Turquoise Ridge or elsewhere the metallurgical operations in Carlin? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. I think clearly we're focused on running our operations. Just we're joint venture partners with certain parties in Australia where we're managing the KCGM operation now. We're partners at Turquoise Ridge, and we continue to work to look at what the next development opportunities are. All the ore at Turquoise Ridge is processed at our Twin Creeks operation today. And looking at ways to be able to expand that relationship and develop the best value for our shareholders in that process is one of our focuses. So, I wouldn't look away from them, but right now, those would be the areas that we're focused on.

Stephen D. Walker - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much, Gary. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Stephen.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.

Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.

Thank you. Good morning, Gary and everybody. I guess, my first question, Gary, just again on strategy, maybe you could just talk a little bit about the fact that your U.S. copper operations are basically below breakeven on an all-in sustaining cost basis relative to the current copper price, and if there would be any plans to brown down production there in response to low copper prices? That's my first question. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, I think, there's two parts and that's the Phoenix operation in the U.S. that's producing copper. You've got the copper that comes with the gold in concentrate and you also have the copper that comes from the SX/EW. And we do have probably more flexibility around SX/EW if we were to see a significant decline in copper prices where it wasn't making money on a cash basis. But at this stage, we don't have any plans to make a change. But that would be the one we'd have probably the most flexibility initially to make a change on.

Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.

So, when you define running them for cash, you define that as C1. You're not thinking AISC cash as being the breakeven? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. If we get down to it, we'd be looking at C1. But we'd continue to assess that as we go forward. Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And as Gary said, part of that is in with the concentrate and so, you really have to look at the combined copper-gold because there is an allocation of cost which can be somewhat academic and isn't always guaranteed to be 100% accurate. You're really looking at the combined product and what margin you get out of that.

Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.

Understood. And then, just that leads into sort of my second strategic question, when you guys think about potentially selling assets in certain parts of the world and reinvesting, where does copper rank relative to gold? Are you kind of metals agnostic or are you leaning more towards increasing your gold projects going forward? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We're very confident at operating gold operations around the world. We do have the three copper-gold deposits that we operate today, but our focus would be on gold primarily. But if there was something of value that was gold with some copper with it, we'd consider it, but our focus is really on gold, Jorge.

Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.

Thank you. And sorry, if I could just get a last one in for Laurie, specifically, Laurie, if we could just get a better baseline and maybe just an explanation as to what continues to happen with the other expense category. I can understand a lot of that is non-cash. But just looking at your year ahead guidance, it seems to imply about a $250 million midpoint for SG&A, including – I'm assuming that category includes others given that your actual SG&A runs at about $180 million. So, I'm assuming – is it correct to think you're using about a $70 million assumption annually for others? Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, the other thing is we talked about this at Investor Day that we have moved our regional G&A into G&A and out of other, so you're going to see some changes in that going forward. And we can give you a lot of detail, if you'd like, offline. The other is a fairly complex area, and a lot of it is non-cash, as you mentioned. But it should be coming down as we make some of these changes that will provide a little bit more transparency.

Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Sir, your line is now open.

Yes. That would be great to get some more color there just because, recurrently, it seems to be an area of negative surprise, and on cash basis, I mean, this does work out to be somewhere upwards of about $40 an ounce, give or take, annually. It would seem like some fairly low-lying fruit if you guys could get a better handle on controlling those recurrent others. So, I just wanted to flag that. Thanks. Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. And we definitely take a look at it, and we'll get back to you with some more detail, Jorge. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Jorge.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kaip of BMO. Your line is now open.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Good morning, Gary and Laurie. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Good morning. The first question I have, Gary, is just for you. Thanks for providing some clarity on Batu Hijau and the fact that you have parties that are interested. I'm wondering if you're in a position to just comment on the quality of those groups that are interested. Do you see them as viable groups that are just assembling up the capital to be able to make an offer, or is it – can you comment on that? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I am going to ask Randy to give a comment.

Randall E. Engel - Executive Vice President-Strategic Development

Analyst

Andrew.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Hi.

Randall E. Engel - Executive Vice President-Strategic Development

Analyst

Yes. The viability is certainly high enough that we felt appropriate to mention, and they're serious parties like we mentioned at Investor Day. We've really only engaged in parties that we felt were viable. Financing in this market has been challenging, but I think that's the case across the sector. So we certainly view them as very real parties.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Are you looking at more than one group that is interested? Or is it just one particular group that is entertaining it?

Randall E. Engel - Executive Vice President-Strategic Development

Analyst

I think we've looked and talked to a number of groups. We've got some serious interested parties right now that we're focused on our discussions with.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

All right. Thanks very much. And then, the second question, Laurie, congratulations on further debt reduction. I'm just wondering and you made comments about potential further debt reduction or gross debt reductions early this year or into 2016. Can you comment on your strategy now? Still a very healthy cash position in Newmont, and I understand the need for it is clear as you're constructing projects. But at some point in time, those cash requirements are going to abate, and I'm wondering what your strategy there is? Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. Thank you, Andrew. And, yes, I think the whole team deserves a lot of credit for this debt paydown. We don't do it in finance. But we definitely have some project-level debt at PTNNT that we expect to be paying down throughout the year. And then we've also considered the concept of doing a tender on some of our outstanding corporate debt. We do have the cash, as I said, in December. We're monitoring the gold price and want to make sure that we don't take undue risk. But as you point out, where we're at right now, both financially and where we are within our projects, that definitely could be something on the horizon. We just have to make sure that the timing fits with all the other things. And as you know, we get into the blackout windows and everything around our quarters. So, our timing to be able to do those things can sometimes be limited. But we definitely, obviously, have the capability, and we'll be studying that quite a bit going forward.

Andrew Kaip - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Haughton of Imperial Bank of Commerce. Sir, your line is now open.

David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, Gary, Laurie, Chris, and Randy. Got some questions on the CapEx. Firstly, looking at Merian, you've put guidance there for 2016 of $170 million to $210 million. Is that on 100% basis, or is that your 75% share? Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's 100%.

David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Excellent. And during the presentation, Gary spoke to some $50 million worth of savings. What kind of savings were generated? Is it as a consequence of currency or energy or some other element that you'd want to talk about? Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, David, I think, it comes – obviously, it's exchange rate and fuel price plays a big role there. But also, from my recent visit there, mining has some very unique approaches in terms of logistics which you can imagine is pretty interesting, getting gear into the Amazon Jungle, where we have saved costs, and even in assembling gear there, where a lot of equipment is obviously fabricated, but then assembled in Europe, in the U.S. or Canada, and then transported in and basically just bolted together. And so, as we do more of that, that's probably after FX and fuel price, biggest savings is less labor cost and less high-tech labor at site.

David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And I know that Andrew Quail had asked – was heading in a similar kind of direction. Your sustaining CapEx is about $100 per ounce. Can you see any of those kind of experiences moving over to your ongoing CapEx, or is it really quite specific about the build capital? Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: I think it's more specific. I think a big sustaining project, something where there was a lot of gear, I think we've learned a lot from that. But we would certainly take these ideas to other big projects in the future. Some great experience there and knowledge we've gained.

David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. So, it's transferrable, say, to what might happen in Ghana, for instance, if you push the button for the expansions? Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Absolutely, yes. And in .

David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Yes. Just going over to Long Canyon the CapEx remaining is around about $250 million to $300 million. Is that up from what your previous expectations were? Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: No, it's pretty well in line with expectations. We're assuming a bit lower spend there again mainly due to fuel costs, but should be pretty line-balled of what we had previously forecast. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, our $250 million to $300 million is full project spend from the beginning. So that hasn't changed at this stage. Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Only about half of that in 2016. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes.

David Haughton - CIBC World Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, all right. Well, thank you very much and, Chris, enjoy your retirement. Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

Tanya Jakusconek - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Tanya Jakusconek - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

I have two questions, one is technical and one is financial. Maybe just on the technical side, can we talk a little bit about the geotechnical issues that you were experiencing at Leeville, exactly what's happening there? I understand there's more ground support that's going in, but what are you seeing underground that's different from what originally you were expecting and how do we see this cost improving through the year? So maybe that's my first question. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Tanya. I'm going to have Chris handle that one. Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, Tanya, I think a couple of pieces to this. One, it's one particular area in Leeville, so it's not an impact across the whole Leeville/Turf complex. It's one area where due to the faulting, while we had an expectation there of poor ground conditions, our current mining approach, the long hole stoping leads to more geotech issues. So, one of the things that we're looking at is a cut-and-fill approach in this particular area of the mine. That would lead to more selective mining, so higher grade, higher cost that may offset one another as you'd be mining less tons, higher cost but higher grades. So, we see the impact of this through – because of this area, it's an isolated area in the mine, the impact this year, but certainly not longer-term.

Tanya Jakusconek - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

So is it safe to say that we're just in the sort of faulted area for the first half, and then once you come out of it, we're back to long hole stoping? Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Yes. And we would be long hole stoping elsewhere in the operations. Just this one area, we would go to this modified mining approach.

Tanya Jakusconek - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

Okay. Okay. Perfect. And then, Laurie, a question for you, and I appreciate you mentioned your target for net debt to EBITDA at 1 time at $1,200 gold price. Is it safe to assume that, we've got obviously the Merian CapEx that's coming through in the first half of the year, you have to make a decision on Ahafo, Subika in the second half of the year. Do we look at it that any excess cash flow above that spend that assumes you've made the decision to go ahead on Ahafo and Subika, still keeping a minimum cash balance of $2 billion on the balance sheet, anything above and beyond that would go to paying down the debt? Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, I think we would certainly evaluate a variety of different things, other options that we might have, what does the gold price look like at that point in time. Theoretically, you're probably not far off about what we do, but there would definitely be timing and other things that would come into play before we would move on that. But I definitely see the ability for us to pay down some incremental debt this year.

Tanya Jakusconek - Scotia Capital Inc.

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

Okay. Okay. Thank you very much. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Garrett Nelson of BB&T Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets: Hi. Thank you. I think you mentioned lower ore grades at Yanacocha and Ahafo as the primary drivers of the year-over-year increase in your total cost per ounce. But it looks like your North American cost – CAS, were up about 9% and was driven by Carlin. Remind us why your cost is so much higher at Carlin? And looking at 2016, are you expecting your cost per ounce in that region to come down as the year progresses and as production ramps at Turf Vent Shaft and so forth? Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think, overall – I mean, first of all, our cost came down year-on-year and just to remind folks, especially all-in sustaining and we have had the moves around Yanacocha as we get closer towards the end of the existing mine life. We have expected those costs to come up as production comes down. Carlin was a factor of some of the items that Chris mentioned as we're dealing with some of the geotechnical issues plus came to the end of some stripping and some grade-related issues. Our guidance still that we provided in early December in terms of where we expect our cost to be for 2016 hasn't changed from what we provided and still remains the same. Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: And the Paceville project at Carlin would have impacted cost. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That would have affected sustaining capital in the fourth quarter spend, yes. Christopher J. Robison - Chief Operating Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. And then your leverage ratios have obviously come down a lot over the last several quarters. Remind us whether you have a target leverage ratio. And if so, what is your target? Mary Lauren Brlas - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. What we've said, Garrett, is that we'd like to be at 1 times debt to EBITDA when gold price is $1,200. Obviously, the EBITDA moves around a bit as the gold price moves around a bit. But if we think about it that way, we're confident that we can maintain investment grade metrics as the gold price moves in through the cycles. Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets: All right, great. Thanks very much. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Garrett.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to hand the call back to Gary Goldberg for any final remarks. Gary J. Goldberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining today. I'm pleased with the changes we've made over the past few years that have positioned Newmont to be the world's leading gold business. We'll continue to focus on our strategy to deliver long-term value by improving our underlying business from safety to productivity to costs, strengthening our portfolio, and creating value by funding our highest-margin projects, reducing debt, and paying steady dividends. Thanks, again, for joining us and have a safe day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes today's conference. Thank you, all, for participating. You may now disconnect.