Earnings Labs

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Q4 2006 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 8, 2007

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Operator instructions

Management

Randy Engel - VP of Planning and IR: Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone for joining us today on Newmont's Q4 and full year 2006 earnings conference call. Please note that our call today and our presentation are being simulcast on our Website at www.newmont.com and are available for playback for a limited time. On today's call we have Wayne Murdy, Newmont's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Pierre Lassonde, the Vice Chairman of our Board of Directors; and Richard O'Brien, Newmont's Senior Vice President and CFO. Wayne will provide a look back at the last quarter and give an overview of 2006. Dick will then review the financial and operating results at each of our regions and give an update of our project development efforts. Pierre will provide his views on the gold market and cover our 2006 exploration and merchant banking performance. As a reminder, we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves unique risks to our industry that we describe in full in our filings with the SEC. With that, I'd like to now turn it over to Wayne.

Wayne Murdy - Chairman, CEO

Management

Thank you, Randy, and good afternoon everyone. We finished 2006 on a high note, financially generating record earnings of $791 million, or $1.76 per share versus prior year earnings of $322 million, or $0.72 per share. That represented 146% increase in our bottom line compared with a 15% increase in revenue. Our leverage to the gold price resulted in a 44% increase in our cash operating margin from the prior year. For the fourth quarter, we earned $233 million, or $0.50 a share, versus $62 million, or $0.14 a share in the prior year. We produced 1.7 million ounces in the quarter with a realized price of $619. Importantly, we also grew our reserves for a fifth straight year to almost 94 million ounces. During 2006, we continued to reinvest in our business, maintaining our positive outlook for the gold price, which Pierre will discuss shortly. In 2006, we invested over $1.5 billion as we brought three new mines into commercial production, including the Phoenix mine and the Leeville mine in Nevada, and the Ahafo mine in Ghana. Together, these new mines will provide well over 1 million equity ounces of annual gold production capacity. We also commenced construction on the Boddington project in Australia, which will allow us to begin mining on over 9 million equity ounces of reserves in a highly prospective gold belt upon completion. We also continued construction of a 200-megawatt power plant that we expect will generate up to $25 per ounce of cost savings in Nevada. We started development and construction of a gold mill in Peru, our first gold mill there, which will enhance our recoveries and expand our reserves at Yanacocha. Yet although we had a record financial year, we continue to be challenged by declining grades at our mature operations. We also experienced significant increases in energy, commodity, and labor costs in 2006. As we turn our focus to a new year, we expect the first half of 2007 to remain challenging as we continue to ramp up our production at our three newest mines, coupled with the anticipated decline of production because of lower grade at Yanacocha and to some extent our Australian operations. We recognize that our changing industry and the changing characteristics of our Company demand a renewed commitment to discipline. Discipline in the way we explore and grow our reserves and the way we manage our operations and develop our projects. Before I turn it over to Dick to discuss our financial and operating results, I'd like to highlight the leverage to gold our financials continue to deliver for our shareholders. As the chart here illustrates, for Q4 2006, our net income increased by 260%, growing from $62 million in 2005 to $223 million in Q4 2006. For the full year, as I said, our net income rose by 146%, while the gold price increased 36% during the same period. With that, let me turn it over to Dick to review our financial and operating performance.

Dick O'Brien - CFO and EVP

Management

Thanks, Wayne. Our consolidated gold sales for Q4 were 2 million ounces, or 1.7 million equity ounces, at an average realized gold price of 619 per ounce and costs applicable to sales of $322 per ounce. As Wayne mentioned, net income grew to $223 million, or $0.50 a share, compared to $62 million or $0.14 per share for the year-ago quarter. For the full year 2006, we exceeded our equity sales target of 5.8 million ounces. Ending the year with 5.9 million equity ounces or 7.4 million consolidated ounces, at an average realized gold price of 599 per ounce and costs applicable to sales of $304 per ounce. Growing our operating margin to $295 per ounce for the year. At year end, our balance sheet remains strong with cash and cash equivalents, short-term marketable securities and other short-term investments of $1.3 billion. Turning to the next slide. Nevada had a good quarter with 887,000 consolidated ounces sold. Increasing from the year-ago quarter by 46% due to the commencement of commercial production at Phoenix and Leeville during Q4, increasing underground production, and increased access to open pit ore at Twin Creeks. Costs applicable to sales per ounce increased 3% for Q4, primarily due to higher labor and underground contracted service costs as well as rising diesel, power, cyanide and other commodity prices. The accounting treatment for the Turquoise Ridge joint venture with Barrett changed during the year as a result of an amendment to the agreement effective July 1, 2006. Starting in Q4 and going forward there will be no difference between consolidated and equity sales reported in Nevada as a result. For the full year 2006 Nevada operations sold approximately 2.5 million ounces on a consolidated basis at costs applicable to sales of $403 per ounce. In 2007, equity gold…

Pierre Lassonde - Vice Chairman

Management

Thanks, Dick, and welcome, everyone. First, I'll start with the reserves and exploration outlook. Our first challenge has been to arrest the decline in our gold reserve grades, which is the clearest, surest indication of better times to come. It's the best long-term cost predictor. In our business grade is everything. In 2003, our reserve grade was 0.039 ounces per ton. That's a European ton, a ton, which declined to 0.34 per ton by the end of 2005. In 2006, while we increased our reserve to 94 million ounces, the reserve grades stayed the same at 0.34 ounce per ton. What's remarkable, is that over the last five years, we've added 52.5 million ounces of gold reserves for Newmont, in five years. I look at that as an unbelievable feat. I do remember the times where we were told that Nevada in particular was over, it was done, there was nothing left there. If you look at last year, we added 3.6 million ounces of reserve in Nevada due to our near-mine exploration program. Very proud of that accomplishment. Yanacocha is probably going through the phase that Nevada did a number of years ago, where we're not finding as much as we'd like. We only added 0.2 million ounces last year but Yanacocha, is one of the most amazing mineral districts in the world. We are working on new paradigm of exploration, and I do believe in due time you will see the same kind of resurgence. Interestingly enough the little Kori Kollo mine, which everybody thought was dead, added another 200,000 ounces of reserve last year, which is 50% as much as what it started with two years ago. In Australia, we added 2.3 million equity ounces of reserve at Boddington and 2.6 million ounces at KCGM in Jundee.…

Wayne Murdy

Chairman

Thank you, Pierre. As we've talked about, we have certainly seen our challenges in 2006 and management and our Board are very aware of those. Opening three new mines on two continents is never easy but we have continued to keep our focus on long-term results. I think with the completion of these mines, the opportunities we have for expansion in Ghana, and there's clearly challenges in Ghana but we continue to have very good drill results. As we work through some of the challenges we have seen this last year, there is good potential there. Then the development of the Boddington mine in Australia. The foundation we have built includes established production base with roughly 2/3 of our current gold sales coming from politically stable countries and an ongoing pipeline of new projects, as expansive land positions are being explored by our highly experienced team. In-house merchant banking, we have talked about. Our technical teams are staffed with some of the industry's best talent. We've got a growing investment portfolio. In addition, our bottom line, the financial performance remains highly leveraged to the gold price, as illustrated with this chart here. As we have seep our margin this year increase to almost $300 an ounce. Just wanted to take a moment before we open up to questions, as many of you saw, we put out an announcement about 1.5 week ago that Seymour Schulich is not going to stand for reelection to the Board because of the time commitments that that requires. But he is going to continue on as he has over the last several years as Chairman of Newmont Capital and as a part-time employee. So, I'm very fortunate, as the CEO, I've got two very high-energy part-time employees in Seymour and Pierre. I think as you can tell by Pierre's comments, he's no less enthusiastic today than he was five years ago. With that, let me open it up for questions.Operator:

Operator instructions

Management

Q - Ankash Shah[?] – JP Morgan: This is Ankash Shah[?] on behalf of John. I just have a couple of accounting questions. Possibly, could you give us a break up of the other income? Secondly, on the special items, could you please let us know where the $44 in million in tax revision, $26 million of reclamation estimate revision and the $3 million Buyat Bay expense is given under the income statement?

A - Wayne Murdy

Management

I'm going to ask Russell Ball, who is our Controller, to go over those questions.

A - Russell Ball

Management

Were you focused on the quarter or the year numbers? Q - Ankash Shah[?] – JP Morgan: If you could give us both that would be even better.

A - Russell Ball

Management

Okay. We will be filing our 10-K tomorrow afternoon and there's a lot of detail in the 10-K. If we go to the other income, a lot of that is essentially the gain on the Canadian oil sale that Pierre spoke to and the gain on the Martabe project. I'm sorry, Alberta oil sands and the Martabe project, which was sold in the third quarter. Offset by the write-down at Zarafshan, again in the third quarter. The balance of that is the usual interest income, dividends and royalties from Newmont Capital. Q - Ankash Shah[?] – JP Morgan: Do you have the numbers, or would we get it tomorrow only?

A - Russell Ball

Management

We can get them to you after the call if you want them in more detail. Q - Ankash Shah[?] – JP Morgan: Okay.

A - Randy Engel

Management

Ankash, it's Randy. Give me a call after the conference here. Q - Ankash Shah[?] – JP Morgan: Okay, sure. Thanks.

A - Russell Ball

Management

On the tax question, there was two parts. One was a goodwill accounting adjustment from the 2002 merger transaction related to pre-existing tax contingencies. The other was a $27 million adjustment for the tax balance sheet that we finalized at year-end. We had an increase in our deferred tax assets. Randy and I will give you a call later and we can go into more detail but there is a lot of disclosure in the 10-K that we'll file tomorrow.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be from John Hill, Citigroup.

Q - John Hill - Citigroup

Management

Guys, as we look ahead to 2007, or for the rest of 2007, and we see the unit cost escalation out there, I'm just wondering if you could break it down for us between kind of involuntary items such as power, fuel, labor; and then more discretionary items, such as deliberately taking lower grade material to benefit from a lower gold or higher gold price, etc.?

A - Wayne Murdy

Management

John, I'm sorry, you were breaking up a bit. Is your question referencing operating costs or capital?

Q - John Hill - Citigroup

Management

I'm sorry, the question references operating costs, the escalation. If you could break it down into the discretionary and the involuntary components?

A - Wayne Murdy

Management

When I look at operating costs I don't think very much of it is discretionary John. I'm not sure exactly what you're getting it at. If you're asking if there's higher gold prices, additional marginal ounces we could go after, there's some but really, we base our operating plan on maximizing the throughput through our mills. I wouldn't view that as very discretionary. There might be some additional ounces you could put on a heap leach but again, we're flat out as far as optimizing our production for the year. Again, we're in a period where we're doing a fair amount of stripping at Batu Hijau and that sets us up for some future year gains. But over the next couple of years we're spending a fair amount on stripping because of the geotechnical issues. In Nevada, we're also doing a fair amount of stripping at Twin Creeks and setting that up for the out years. A - Dick O’Brien: John, maybe another way to frame it would be, if you take Yanacocha as an example. If you look at the dramatic decline in the unit output, we're essentially moving the same amount of material with lower grade and less gold. So when you look at simply the change in the denominator, that increases Yanacocha's costs up from last year's $205, I believe, up to this year $340. The remaining $10 to $15 comes from fuel, commodity and labor escalation. That's a good way to frame the rest of the operations as well.

Q - John Hill - Citigroup

Management

Just a quick follow-up. You referenced some grade and recovery issues at Ahafo. I think we're all familiar with the power supply situation. But I was wondering if you could give us more detail on the grade and recovery issues that you mentioned?

A - Wayne Murdy

Management

I think the issue we were trying to reference is just really related to, we're in start up still at Ahafo. We're trying to make sure that the exploration results and the operating results come in more closely as we try to work those models together. At this point, we don't have any reason to expect it's a long-term issue. But 2007, is just is we're ramping up production, getting mill recoveries and trying to make sure we sync up the exploration results with the operating results.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Damon Wells of Damon Wells Interests.

Q - Damon Wells - Damon Wells Interests

Management

Congratulations on a good quarter and a very positive forecast. My question is, when is some of this success going to filter down to the shareholder? We have not had a dividend increase since 2005. The dividend today is less than was in 1996 when gold was about $400 and not $680. My message is congratulations but don't forget us.

A - Wayne Murdy

Management

Good point. We're very sensitive to the shareholders and we went through a period coming out of the bottom of this cycle where we increased our dividend, brought it back up to $0.40. But you're right, it's still below the $0.48 that we were in 1996. Very cognizant of that. We are in a period where we're spending significant amount of capital. Our view is that that will, over the next couple of years, as we get these new mines in production, put us in position where hopefully we've got good capital appreciation over that period of time. Then we will be in a position, once we're generating that free cash flow again, to continue to increase the dividend.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time we have no further questions, sir.

A - Wayne Murdy

Management

Okay. If we have no more questions, we will go ahead and wrap up the call. We thank you, again, all for joining us. If you do have follow-up questions, please feel free to contact us at the information provided at the back of the release. Again, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our call for today.