Rebecca Kujawa
Analyst · Bank of America
Thank you Jim, and good morning everyone. Let’s now turn to the detailed results, beginning with FPL. For the first quarter of 2020, FPL reported net income of $642 million or $1.31 per share. Earnings per share increased $0.09 year-over-year. Regulatory capital employed increased by approximately 9% over the same quarter last year and was the principal driver of FPL’s net income growth of roughly 9%. FPL’s capital expenditures were approximately $1.4 billion for the quarter, and we expect our full year capital investments to be between $5.8 billion and $6.3 billion. FPL’s reported ROE for regulatory purposes will be approximately 11.6% for the 12 months ending March 2020, which is at the upper end of the allowed band of 9.6% to 11.6% under our current rate agreement. During the quarter, we utilized $149 million of reserve amortization to achieve our target regulatory ROE, leaving FPL with a balance of $744 million. The amount of reserve amortization that FPL utilized this quarter was below that which was utilized in the first quarter of 2019. As we’ve previously discussed, FPL historically utilizes more reserve amortization in the first half of the year given the pattern of its underlying revenues and expenses, and we expect this year to be no different. We continue to expect that FPL will end 2020 with a sufficient amount of reserve amortization to continue operating under the base rate settlement agreement through 2021, creating further customer benefits by avoiding a base rate increase during this time. Turning to our development efforts, we recently filed an updated 10-year site plan for FPL and Gulf Power that highlights the next phase of smart capital investment opportunities across Florida systems. The filing reflects an expectation that FPL and Gulf Power will begin to operate as an integrated electric system in 2022. As we’ve previously discussed, since the acquisition closed in 2019, FPL and Gulf Power have been reviewing the potential benefits of merging into a single larger Florida utility company. Based on this review, the companies expect that a merger will create both operational and financial benefits for its customers. As a result, FPL and Gulf Power plan to take additional steps to merge over the coming months and continue to expect to file a combined rate case in the first quarter of 2021 for new rates effective in January of 2022. The combined 10-year site plan projects an approximately 70% increase in the amount of zero emission electricity that is generated in 2029 relative to 2019 as a result of FPL’s continued rapid expansion of solar energy through the execution of its 30 by ‘30 plan. By the end of this decade, FPL projects it will have more than 10,000 megawatts of installed solar capacity, including nearly 1,600 megawatts within the current Gulf Power service territory. Of this total capacity, approximately 1,500 megawatts are expected to be constructed under FPL’s recently approved Solar Together program, which is the nation’s largest community solar program. Since the official launch of the program last month, customer demand across all rate classes has been substantial with demand from residential customers in one week surpassing the total residential private solar capacity that has been installed over the past 10 years. This strong demand is a reflection of increasing customer interest in cost-effective, clean energy solutions. The innovative program is expected to generate $249 million of total net cost savings for participating and non-participating customers over its life. Beyond the significant solar expansion, the 10-year site plan also highlights FPL’s other efforts to supply its customers with energy that is both clean and affordable. Relative to last year’s site plan, there is a dramatic increase in the battery storage deployment with a total of approximately 1,200 megawatts of storage capacity now expected by 2029. Additionally, the site plan reflects FPL eliminating essentially all of the coal from its integrated system, including the phase-out of its last operating coal plant within Florida later this year. Finally, this year’s site plan reflects FPL further diversifying its generation portfolio with the elimination of the combined-cycle natural gas plants at FPL and Gulf Power that were previously expected to be constructed in the middle of this decade. This plan reflects our belief that renewable generation, and particularly solar paired with battery storage in Florida, is an increasingly cost effective form of generation in most parts of the U.S. As FPL and Gulf Power execute on these opportunities to further modernize their combined generation fleet, we expect to enhance our customer value proposition while also reducing our CO2 emissions rate, which is already among the lowest in the nation and is targeted to be 67% below the 2005 U.S. electric industry average by 2030. Despite the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, all of FPL’s major capital projects remain on track and on budget. In late January, the first six Solar Together projects totaling approximately 450 megawatts entered service. An additional 450 megawatts of Solar Together sites, as well as the final 300 megawatts of solar being built under the solar base rate adjustment, or SOBR mechanism of FPL’s base rate settlement agreement, remain on track to be placed in service this year. Beyond solar, construction of the highly efficient, roughly 1,200 megawatt Dania Beach clean energy center remains on schedule and on budget as it continues to advance towards its projected commercial operations date in 2022. We continue to expect that FPL’s ongoing smart investment opportunities will support a compound annual growth rate and regulatory capital employed of approximately 9% from 2018 through 2022, while further enhancing our best-in-class value proposition. Let me now turn to Gulf Power, which reported first quarter 2020 net income of $40 million or $0.08 per share. Gulf’s capital expenditures were $340 million for the quarter as it continues to execute on smart capital investments for the benefit of customers, and we continue to expect its full year capital investments to be between $800 million and $900 million. As a result of these ongoing investments, regulatory capital employed increased by approximately 25% year-over-year. Gulf Power’s reported ROE for regulatory purposes will be approximately 11.2% for the 12 months ending March 2020. The overall execution of Gulf Power’s capital program continues to progress well. Gulf Power’s first solar project, the roughly 75 megawatt Blue Indigo solar energy center, was placed in service earlier this month. All of its other major capital investments, including the North Florida resiliency connection and the Plant Crist coal to natural gas conversion continue to remain on track. Similar to S&P’s one-notch upgrade of both FPL and Gulf Power in late December, Fitch recently upgraded Gulf’s credit ratings by one notch as well, citing its strong financial position resulting from the reduction in operating costs and ongoing modernization efforts We are pleased with these upgrades, which we believe are a reflection of successful execution since the Gulf Power acquisition closed, and which further strengthen NextEra Energy’s overall credit position. Similar to other parts of the country, the Florida economy is being impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Recent economic data reflects Florida unemployment rates beginning to increase and a significant decline in consumer confidence. As Florida continues to deal with the impacts of the pandemic, we are encouraged that the trailing seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases has modestly declined in the past two weeks. While it is unclear at this point how severely the economy will be impacted, we believe the strength with which Florida entered this crisis combined with the continued attraction of its low tax, pro-business policies position Florida well for a rebound once the worst of the pandemic is behind us. During the quarter, FPL’s average number of customers continued its recent trend of strong underlying growth, increasing by approximately 72,000 from the comparable prior year quarter. FPL’s first quarter retails sales increased 3.3% year-over-year, driven primarily by a favorable weather comparison. On a weather-normalized basis, FPL’s retail sales declined by 0.7% as customer growth was more than offset by a reduction in underlying usage per customer. We continue to evaluate the effects of the pandemic on FPL’s retail sales, which are heavily weighted to residential customers at more than 50%, and we have a very limited exposure to industrial load at less than 3%. Additionally, since approximately 40% of FPL’s load is cooling related and therefore important for both comfort and building maintenance, we expect this demand driver to remain relatively stable, especially as we head into the warmer months of the year. Weather-normalized retail sales for the past four weeks are down approximately 2% relative to the prior two years, with increased residential sales partially offsetting declines in other classes; however, this underlying usage decline has been more than offset by strong weather with overall usage in the past four weeks increasing nearly 10% relative to the prior two-year average. While the ultimate impacts of the pandemic on underlying usage cannot be known at this time, we continue to expect the flexibility provided by our reserve amortization mechanism to offset any fluctuation in retail sales or bad debt expense and support a regulatory ROE at the upper end of the allowed band of 9.6% to 11.6% under our current agreement. For Gulf Power, the average number of customers increased approximately 1.1% versus the comparable prior year quarter. Gulf Power’s first quarter retail sales increased roughly 0.6% year-over-year as customer growth and an increase in underlying usage per customer were largely offset by an unfavorable weather comparison relative to 2019. Over the last four weeks, Gulf Power’s weather-normalized retail sales have declined approximately 9% versus the prior two-year average. Similar to FPL, over this period strong weather offset the decline in underlying usage and overall retail sales increased nearly 4% versus the prior two-year average. As a reminder, unlike FPL, Gulf Power does not have a reserve amortization mechanism under its settlement agreement to offset the fluctuations in revenues or costs, so any variability will therefore have more impact to Gulf’s earnings and ROE than on FPL. As we have often discussed, weather-normalization is imprecise and is particularly so when evaluating short periods of time. We are providing our assessment of the changes in load in an effort to be transparent, but caution that these should be considered as indicative and assessed together with the overall changes in usage. Additional details on retail sales at FPL and Gulf Power are included in the appendix of today’s presentation. Let me now turn to Energy Resources, which reported first quarter 2020 GAAP earnings of $318 million or $0.65 per share and adjusted earnings of $529 million or $1.08 per share. This is an increase in adjusted earnings per share of $0.11 or approximately 11% from last year’s comparable quarter results. As a reminder, last year’s first quarter results have been restated to reflect the results of our NextEra Energy transmission projects formerly reported in the corporate and other segment. New investments, including more than 1,500 megawatts of new contracted wind and solar projects that were commissioned during 2019, added $0.08 per share. Contributions from existing generation assets also increased by $0.09 per share due to an improvement in wind resource and increased PTC volume from our re-powered wind projects. Fleet-wide wind resource was at 96%, the long term average, versus 91% during the first quarter of 2019. Also contributing favorably were NextEra Energy transmission, where contributions increased by $0.04 versus 2019, and our gas infrastructure business, including our existing pipeline which increased results by $0.02 year-over-year. These favorable contributions were partially offset by lower contributions from our customer supply and trading business, which declined $0.02 versus the particularly strong first quarter last year. All other impacts reduced results by $0.10 per share, primarily as a result of increased interest expense reflecting continued growth in the business and share dilution. As Jim mentioned earlier, Energy Resources’ development team had another strong quarter of origination. Since the last call, we have added 1,590 megawatts of renewable projects to our backlog, including 600 megawatts of wind, 420 megawatts of solar, 457 megawatts of battery storage, and 113 megawatts of wind re-powering projects. With this quarter’s backlog additions and with two and a half years remaining in the period, we are now well within the 2019 to 2022 renewables development ranges that we introduced in the middle of last year. At this early stage, we are tracking extremely well against the total development forecast for this period and our backlog continues to track against the assumptions supporting our previously announced financial expectations. For the post-2022 period, our backlog now includes wind, solar and storage projects totalling approximately 3,200 megawatts, placing us far ahead of our historical originations at this stage and further supporting Energy Resources’ long-term growth visibility. Beyond renewables, we continue to work with our partners on Mountain Valley Pipeline and with the relevant agencies to resolve the issues related to MVP’s biological opinion. We are encouraged by the tone of the oral arguments at the Supreme Court on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline’s case related to its Appalachian Trail crossing authorization and remain hopeful that the Fourth Circuit Court’s original decision will be overturned, resolving similar issues for MVP. We are also evaluating the recent Montana federal court decision supporting to enjoin the Army Corps of Engineers from issuing permits under the Nationwide 12 program. We believe the ruling out of the court is incorrect and anticipate that the federal government will seek to fix the situation rapidly. Assuming a successful resolution along the currently expected timeline of all of these issues, we continue to target a full in-service date for the pipeline during 2020 and expect an overall project estimate of approximately $5.4 billion. Turning now to consolidated results for NextEra Energy, for the first quarter of 2020, GAAP net income attributable to NextEra Energy was $421 million or $0.86 per share. NextEra Energy’s 2020 first quarter adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS were $1.17 billion and $2.38 per share respectively. Adjusted earnings from the corporate and other segment were roughly flat year-over-year. As Jim mentioned, NextEra Energy’s current liquidity position is approximately $12 billion, ensuring that we are well positioned to execute on our strategic plans regardless of potential market disruptions. The financing that we have executed year-to-date represents a significant portion of our expected 2020 financing plan, and we remain confident about our ability to execute the financing plan for the balance of the year and beyond. In the near term, we have the positive cash balances helping to ensure ample liquidity as we execute on our current investment programs. Energy Resources currently has commitments for substantially all of its expected 2020 tax equity financings, which we expect to close as the renewable projects are placed in service later this year. The financial expectations which we extended last year through 2022 remain unchanged. We continue to expect that NextEra Energy’s adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate to be in a range of 6% to 8% through 2021 off of the 2018 adjusted EPS of $7.70, plus the accretion of $0.15 and $0.20 in 2020 and 2021 respectively from the Florida acquisitions. For 2020, we continue to expect our adjusted EPS to be in the range of $8.70 to $9.20, and as Jim highlighted, we will be disappointed if we are not able to deliver financial results at or near the top end of this range. For 2022, we expect to grow adjusted EPS in a range of 6% to 8% off of the 2021 adjusted EPS, translating to a range of $10 to $10.75 per share. From 2018 to 2022, we continue to expect that operating cash flow will grow roughly in line with our adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate range. As Jim noted, while our expectations always assume normal weather and operating conditions, as we consider a reasonable range of impacts related to the current pandemic, we feel comfortable with the expectations that we have outlined. As we announced in February, the board of NextEra Energy approved an updated dividend policy for beyond 2020 which is expected to translate to a growth rate in dividends per share of roughly 10% per year through at least 2022, off of a 2020 base. The board’s approval to continue to grow our dividends per share in excess of our expected adjusted earnings per share growth rate is a reflection of the continued strength in earnings and operating cash flow growth at NextEra Energy, and we remain well positioned to support the dividend policy going forward. Let me now turn to NextEra Energy Partners, which delivered outstanding operational and financial performance for the quarter. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $294 million and cash available for distribution, including all distributions from our Desert Sunlight projects in both periods, was $130 million, up 31% and more than 200% respectively against the prior year comparable quarter. Including full contributions from the Desert Sunlight projects, NextEra Energy Partners would have achieved CAFD growth of 187% versus 2019. Contributions from portfolio acquisitions and an improvement in wind resource were the principal drivers of growth. New projects added $54 million of adjusted EBITDA and $44 million of cash available for distributions. For the NEP portfolio, wind resource was 98% of the long-term average versus 89% in the first quarter of 2019. Cash available for distribution also benefited from a reduction in project-level debt service primarily as a result of the retirement of the outstanding notes at our Genesis project and the receipt of higher year-over-year payco [ph] payments. The reduction in project-level debt service was partially offset by higher corporate level interest expense. As a reminder, these results are net of IDR fees since we consider these as an operating expense. Additional details are shown on the accompanying slide. Yesterday, the NextEra Energy Partners’ board declared a quarterly distribution of $0.555 per common unit, or $2.22 per common unit on an annualized basis, continuing our track record of growing distributions at the top end of our 12% to 15% per year growth rate range. As Jim mentioned earlier, the transactions that NextEra Energy Partners executed in 2019 allowed it to enter 2020 well positioned to withstand the recent market turmoil. During 2019, NextEra Energy Partners raised approximately $1.8 billion through three convertible equity portfolio financings. With low initial coupons, the convertible equity portfolio financings provide more cash to LP unit holders, which we expect will allow NextEra Energy Partners to acquire fewer assets to achieve the same level of future distribution growth and therefore also reduce future financing needs. The benefits of these financings are a large reason that NextEra Energy Partners now has the flexibility to execute on its long-term distribution growth objectives without the need for additional asset acquisitions until 2022. At times of market stress, reduced future asset and financing needs are a tremendous advantage and help further improve NextEra Energy Partner’s ability to execute on its long-term growth objectives. As NextEra Energy Partners advanced towards its organic growth investments in 2019, it took steps to support the financing for these investment opportunities as well. Through the recapitalization of the Texas pipelines, a project finance facility related to the Meade pipeline expansion project, and its advance discussions for tax equity financing related to the two wind re-powerings, NextEra Energy Partners expects to finance these accretive investments through attractive sources of long-term capital. Last year, NextEra Energy Partners also purchased all of the outstanding holding company and operating company notes at our Genesis project. Assuming favorable resolution for our PG&E related assets, about which we continue to remain confident, the cash flows from the Genesis project can support significant long-term financing capacity. Additionally, following PG&E’s emergence from bankruptcy, we expect cash that is currently trapped at our Desert Sunlight 250 and 300 projects to be distributed. As of the end of the first quarter, approximately $48 million of distributions have been restricted or withheld at the projects. The Genesis financing capacity and the release of the Desert Sunlight trapped cash are additional potential sources of capital and liquidity for NextEra Energy Partners. Finally, over the last year NextEra Energy Partners’ revolving credit facility was upsized by $500 million to $1.25 billion, and the term was extended out to 2025. This incremental liquidity further supports NextEra Energy Partners’ financing position and provides flexibility in how NEP executes on its long-term growth objectives. Prudent capital management is a hallmark of our approach to how we manage all of our businesses. As a result of the actions taken over the past year, we believe NextEra Energy Partners is particularly well positioned to achieve its long-term growth expectations. Let me now turn to NextEra Energy Partners’ expectations, which remain unchanged. Including full contributions to PG&E related projects, year-end 2020 run rate cash available for distribution is expected to be in a range of $560 million to $640 million, reflecting calendar year 2021 expectations for the forecasted portfolio at the end of 2020. Excluding all contributions from the Desert Sunlight projects, NextEra Energy Partners continues to expect year-end 2020 run rate for CAFD to be in the range of $505 million to $585 million. Year-end 2020 run rate adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in a range of $1.225 billion to $1.4 billion, which assumes full contributions from the projects related to PG&E as revenue is expected to continue to be recognized. Similar to NextEra Energy, while our expectations always assume normal weather and operating conditions, as we consider a reasonable range of impacts related to the current pandemic, we continue to feel comfortable with these expectations. As a reminder, all of our expectations include the impact of anticipated IDR fees as we treat these as an operating expense. From a base of our fourth quarter 2019 distribution per common unit at an annualized rate of $2.14, we continue to see 12% to 15% growth per year in LP distributions as being a reasonable range of expectations through at least 2024. We expect the annualized rate of fourth quarter 2020 distribution that is payable in February 2021 to be in a range of $2.40 to $2.46 per common unit. As I previously noted, NextEra Energy Partners now expects to be able to achieve its long-term distribution growth expectations without the need for additional asset acquisitions until 2022. In summary and as Jim highlighted, we continue to believe that despite the ongoing challenges in the market and the economy, both NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners continue to execute and maintain their excellent prospects for growth. We continue to remain enthusiastic about our future and are focused on delivering shareholder value going forward. That concludes our prepared remarks, and with that we will open up the line for questions.