Armando Pimentel
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Lew, and good morning to everyone. In the fourth quarter 2010, NextEra Energy's GAAP net income was $263 million or $0.63 per share. NextEra Energy's 2010 fourth quarter adjusted earnings and adjusted EPS were $332 million and $0.80, respectively. The difference between the GAAP and adjusted results is the exclusion of the mark in our non-qualifying hedge category and the exclusion of net other than temporary impairments on certain investments or OTTI. For the full year 2010, NextEra Energy's GAAP net income was $2 billion or $4.74 per share. NextEra Energy's adjusted 2010 earnings and EPS were $1.8 billion and $4.30, respectively. For the fourth quarter of 2010, Florida Power & Light had net income of $181 million or $0.43 per share. For the full year 2010, FPL's net income was $945 million or $2.29 per share. The table shown here summarizes the earnings drivers for FPL for the just completed quarter as well as for the full year 2010. In total, quarterly earnings decreased by $0.02 per share. The decrease was primarily driven by the impact of weather and increased O&M expenses. These drivers were partially offset by the impact of FPL's base rate increase and increased results from clauses, including the shifting of certain capacity charges from base rates in the capacity clause. Full year 2010 results were driven by the addition of West County units 1 and 2 and the impact of FPL's base rate revenue increases in clause results, partially offset by higher O&M, depreciation expense as a result of the settlement agreement and AFUDC. We are continuing to see improvement in some of our key customer metrics, although they are not yet all trending positively. The table in the upper left shows the change in retail kilowatt-hour sales in the quarter versus last year's comparable period. Overall, retail kilowatt hour sales fell by 3.5%, a decline due primarily to lower weather-related usage and partially offset by an increase in customer growth. Although many of you are aware that we experienced a far colder-than-normal month in December, the weather for the quarter as a whole, particularly cooling degree days, was mild relative to normal and well below the favorable weather realized in the fourth quarter of 2009. Non-weather-related or underlying usage and all other declined by 0.9%. Although some of this decrease continues to be due to mandated energy efficiency measures, I think that some is related to the impact of empty home that I will discuss in a moment, and some is also related to the effects of extreme weather that are not precisely covered in our models. Over the last 60 years, December 2010 was the coldest December on record and the fifth coldest winter month overall for our service territory. And again, our total system performed admirably during this last cold weather event, just as it did during last January's record cold temperatures. As depicted in the graph in the upper right-hand corner, during the fourth quarter of 2010 we had approximately 28,000 more customers than we did in the comparable period of 2009. This is the fourth quarter in a row where we have had customer increases compared to the prior comparable period, and we continue to be cautiously optimistic that our customer growth is returning. The graph on the bottom left shows our monthly year-over-year customer additions in percentage terms, broken down by residential and commercial customers. As you can see, residential customer additions accelerated at the beginning of 2010, then the growth held roughly steady through the balance of the year. Trends in commercial customer growth appear to lag that of the residential customers, and it was not until the summer months of 2010 that commercial growth accelerated. The coming year will be important for the Florida economy, and we will continue to monitor customer trends carefully in the next couple of months. The graph on the bottom right of the page shows inactive and low-usage customers, which we believe depict the level of empty homes in our service territory. In December 2010, the decline in residential inactive meters accelerated, while the ratio of inactive meters to total accounts experienced its largest drop since February 2010. However, despite the decline in inactive meters, low-usage customers increased slightly. While we cannot be certain, we believe it is possible that a certain number of inactive accounts are turning into low-usage accounts. To my earlier comments on sales growth, some of the customer growth we are experiencing may not yet be producing sales and, in our analysis, may be contributing to the negative underlying usage. The current environment might be viewed as a transition period as Florida is working through the effects of the real estate market downturn over the last couple of years. On the positive side, homes in FPL markets are becoming more affordable. For example, the current housing affordability index for Miami is now 66% versus 72% for the U.S. and compared to 11% at the peak of the boom in late 2006. Traditionally, housing affordability has been one of Florida's advantages. And we believe Florida will continue to be a very attractive destination to which people and industry will move. Because of the impact of -- the base rate agreement will have on FPL's earnings over the next couple of years, I would like to spend a couple of minutes reviewing the details of the agreement in general and the amortization of surplus depreciation in particular. Under the terms of the agreement, retail base rates will remain effectively frozen through the end of 2012. And through the capacity clause, FPL is permitted to recover the costs, including return, for its new combined-cycle natural gas unit at West County Energy Center up to the projected fuel savings for customers attributed to the new unit. This allows for current cash recovery without a corresponding increase in customers' total bill. The estimated 2011 fuel savings is approximately $96 million, which is roughly equal to the non-fuel revenue requirements for the plant at a 10% ROE. The authorized retail regulatory ROE remains within the range of 9% to 11%, and is measured on an actual non-weather-adjusted basis. I will refer to the actual non-weather adjusted retail regulatory ROE in this discussion as just retail regulatory ROE. As you recall, as part of the rate order issued in March 2010, the Commission determined that FPL had $895 million in net surplus depreciation and ordered FPL to amortize its surplus depreciation ratably over a four-year period starting in 2010. Under the agreement, FPL has the flexibility to vary the quarterly and annual amount of surplus depreciation amortization that it records. The surplus depreciation will be amortized to keep FPL's earned regulatory ROE within the approved range of up to 11%, subject to certain annual and total caps. A $267 million annual cap on the amortization of surplus depreciation applies to each year of the agreement. However, to the extent that our amortization of surplus in any given year is less than the $267 million cap, it can be carried forward and will be available for use in subsequent years. In essence, raising subsequent years' caps. No more than $776 million of the surplus depreciation can be amortized during the term of the agreement, unless more, up to the entire amount of the initial $895 million of surplus depreciation then remaining, is required to avoid a filing with the PSC showing a retail regulatory ROE of less than 9%. In any year of the agreement, the company must amortize enough of the surplus depreciation to maintain at least 9% retail regulatory ROE, but may not amortize any surplus depreciation if the amortization would result in FPL earning above an 11% retail regulatory ROE. We have prepared this summary to assist you in understanding how the surplus depreciation might be amortized over the term of the agreement. As a result of favorable weather during 2010, we amortized approximately $4 million of the allowed $267 million for the year. The amount below the annual cap that we did not amortize in 2010, or $263 million, will be available for use in 2011, bringing the total allowed amortization of surplus depreciation in 2011 to be approximately $530 million. Based on current estimates and making certain assumptions, including normal weather and operating conditions, we believe we will amortize between $245 million and $265 million of surplus depreciation in 2011. Assuming those estimates are correct, that would leave between $507 million and $527 million of surplus depreciation available to be amortized in 2012 in order to achieve a retail regulatory ROE at or near 11%. Based on current estimates, we expect FPL will earn a retail regulatory ROE at or near 11% in both 2011 and 2012. On a book basis, the overall FPL ROE would be less than 11% because there are some expenses not recoverable through rates and some clause investments that earn a 10% ROE. As Lew mentioned, we expect FPL's retail rate base to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.5%, from a 2009 base through 2014. This growth is being driven by approximately $6.4 billion of major capital projects, including modernizations and nuclear uprates, expected to be brought into service between 2011 and 2014. All of which have been approved by the Commission and several of which will receive clause recovery. As you recall, we manage our equity ratio on a GAAP basis to approximately 59%, which currently translates to a regulatory equity ratio of roughly 48%. It is strong rate-based growth, coupled with a fair and appropriate return on these investments, which we expect to be the significant driver of NextEra Energy's overall growth. As many of you know, last year the Florida legislature considered legislation that would have given utilities the voluntary opportunity to build renewable generation in the state and would have provided costs recovery through a clause mechanism. If legislation is enacted in the future, FPL would have the opportunity to build incremental renewable generation that is not in our current plans. Let me now turn to Energy Resources. During 2010, we successfully added 754 megawatts of incremental wind capacity to our portfolio, including 70 megawatts of existing wind generation that we acquired during the fourth quarter. Of note, our 82 megawatt Ghost Pine Canada wind project was the largest wind generation facility brought into service in 2010 in Canada. And we now own and operate approximately 220 megawatts of wind generation in the country. We are pleased that in the fourth quarter, we secured approximately 454 megawatts in wind purchase power agreements or PPAs. This figure includes 78 megawatts related to a PPA we signed for a repowering project in California. We will talk more about the current wind generation contracting environment in a couple of minutes. During the course of 2010, we elected to receive CITCs on 603 megawatts of new wind generation. During the calendar year of 2010, we received approximately $430 million in cash related to the program, and we expect to receive roughly $400 million in cash in 2011. As we initially indicated on the third quarter earnings conference call, we continue to expect to elect CITCs on 400 to 550 megawatts of new wind generation in 2011. Turning to our solar initiatives. We have also continued to make significant progress on our solar development pipeline. During the fourth quarter, we acquired appropriately 40 megawatts of solar projects currently in development in Ontario, Canada. Construction on the projects is expected to begin in early 2011, and commercial operations are expected by the end of 2011. The projects, when completed, will sell power under a long-term contract to the Ontario Power Authority. We also commissioned the 5-megawatt Paradise solar PV project in New Jersey. The Paradise project generates New Jersey's solar renewable energy credits. In November, the Genesis solar thermal project received approval from the Bureau of Land Management, the last major approval the project needed before site work began this month. And although we do not have anything to announce at this time, we are optimistic about our ability to sign incremental PPAs in California and adjacent states for large-scale solar generation. We are pleased to highlight that our Duane Arnold Energy Center received a 20-year license extension from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission or NRC. The NRC approval comes just after two years after NextEra Energy Duane Arnold and its joint owners entered the extremely rigorous and comprehensive license extension process managed by the NRC. Finally, we have two financing transactions we would like to highlight. First, during the fourth quarter, we entered into two CAD $150 million three-year variable rate revolving credit facilities that expire at the end of 2013. These facilities are particularly attractive because they are in Canadian dollars, which align well with investments we are making in the country. Second, in December, we successfully financed our 507-megawatt gas-fired facility located in Blythe, California. We were able to secure a $231 million limited recourse loan as a result of proactively seeking a long-term power sales agreement for the output of the plant. Energy Resources reported fourth quarter 2010 GAAP earnings of $73 million or $0.17 per share. Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter, which exclude the effect of non-qualifying hedges and net OTTI, were $143 million or $0.34 per share. For the full year 2010, Energy Resources reported GAAP earnings of $980 million or $2.37 per share. Adjusted earnings were $800 million or $1.93 per share. As we mentioned in the first quarter of 2010, we have changed the methodology for allocating interest and shared costs to affiliates. And historical figures on this slide have been adjusted to reflect that change. Energy Resources' fourth quarter adjusted EPS increased $0.02 from last year's comparable quarter. New wind and solar investment contributions were relatively flat due to the $0.04 lower contribution from CITCs. This was largely offset by the $0.03 contribution from assets placed into service in the fourth quarter of 2009 that were available for a full quarter in 2010. We elected to take CITCs on 603 megawatts of new wind generation placed in service in 2010 compared with 815 megawatts in 2009. In aggregate, the existing asset portfolio contributed $0.15 relative to the prior year. Existing wind assets contributed approximately $0.04 per share as compared to the year-ago period, which was largely due to an improved wind resource. The wind resource was approximately 92% of normal, which was an improvement relative to the prior year's quarter of 81%. Within our existing merchant assets, the lack of an extended outage at our Seabrook nuclear facility in 2010 fourth quarter contributed $0.16. This was partially offset by weak market conditions affecting our merchant Texas gas assets, which resulted in $0.03 lower adjusted earnings per share. Within our contracted assets, a positive $0.02 contribution from the lack of a refueling outage at our Point Beach nuclear facility in 2010 was substantially offset by a negative $0.02 contribution from Marcus Hook 750, which was largely due to unfavorable market conditions and a scheduled outage. Contributions from the Customer Supply business declined $0.02. Contributions from proprietary trading declined by $0.03 per share. As we've indicated before, results from Customer Supply and trading will often be higher or lower than we expect based on a number of factors, including market volatility and opportunities. As we noted in last year's fourth quarter earnings report, market conditions were particularly favorable in both the fourth quarter and full year 2009. Restructuring and asset sales contributed a negative $0.01 compared to last year due to the absence of a gain recorded last year. During the quarter, we wrote down the value of certain assets associated with our plants that repower two wind facilities. The write-offs negatively impacted adjusted EPS by $0.03. Although we have included the impact of the write-offs in adjusted earnings, we wanted to highlight them separately so investors understand these are not part of ongoing operations. All other factors contributed negative $0.04 per share, primarily due to higher interest expense. For the full year 2010, adjusted earnings per share decreased by $0.01. New wind and solar additions contributed $0.11, which was driven primarily by the full year adjusted earnings impact from 2009 wind additions and the benefit of state income tax credits, partially offset by the impact of lower CITC elections in 2010 relative to 2009. In aggregate, the existing asset portfolio contributed $0.13 relative to the prior year. For the full year, the contribution from existing wind assets declined $0.02 due to unfavorable pricing of ERCOT wind and the lack of certain state tax credits in 2010, which were substantially offset by lower curtailment and an increased wind resource. Performance from our existing merchant NEPOOL assets was higher by $0.20, driven primarily by the lack of an extended outage at our Seabrook nuclear facility. Contributions from our merchant gas assets in Texas were lower by $0.07 due to unfavorable market conditions. Gas infrastructure contributions were up $0.06 relative to the prior year, largely due to the closing out of certain hedges in the third quarter. The Customer Supply business contributed $0.10 due to a strong Full Requirements business as well as GEXA retail and mid-marketing origination contributions. Within Full Requirements, the sale of a power supply contract in the first quarter, new contracts and favorable market conditions contributed to the strong results for the year. The proprietary Power and Gas Trading business contributed a negative $0.16 due to unfavorable market conditions relative to last year's very favorable market conditions. Asset sales contributed a positive $0.02, while the write-offs taken in the fourth quarter related to the California wind assets contributed a negative $0.03. All other factors contributed a negative $0.24, of which $0.13 was from higher interest expense and share dilution, and the balance is largely related to the lack of favorable tax benefits in 2010 relative to 2009. We remain interested in developing or acquiring new wind generation projects and believe that our economy and our environment will benefit from continued investments, including generation. We're also committed to maintaining our financial discipline. Therefore, the amount of new wind we ultimately add to our portfolio will largely depend upon our ability to secure attractive long-term PPAs. As Lew mentioned a couple of minutes ago, during the fourth quarter we secured approximately 454 megawatts in wind PPAs, bringing our total wind PPAs signed in 2010 to 1,238 megawatts. As of year-end 2010, we have 612 megawatts of wind capacity that is built and we intend to contract, but currently do not have a signed long-term agreement in hand. Contracting these megawatts continues to be a high priority for us, and I am comfortable with the progress that we are making. As noted in the chart on the right, of the total 1,238 megawatts of PPAs secured in 2010, 553 megawatts are for projects we expect to be commissioned in 2011. As always, some of these projects could slip into 2012 due to normal development and construction timing issues. In addition to the 553 megawatts of secured contracts, we have another 400 to 500 megawatts of projects currently in development, but without contracts, that could be commissioned in 2011. This level of certainty regarding contracts for the pipeline is particularly positive, given the challenging conditions we continue to encounter in the market. One way that we plan to add incremental value to the business in the next couple of years is to begin to repower some of our older wind facilities. We can deploy fewer wind turbines with an increased net capacity factor and also take advantage of new elections of either the production tax credit, or PTCs, or the CITC. In fact during in the fourth quarter, we signed a PPA with an existing California facilities off-taker to repower that facility. We believe we may have the opportunity to repower approximately 300 to 400 megawatts of wind capacity over the next four years. As we have indicated to you many times and our track record should show, we are as interested in acquiring new and existing wind and solar assets as we are in building them ourselves. In fact, we have acquired approximately 343 megawatts of renewable generation assets since 2008. This does not include 190 megawatts of wind and solar projects purchased or contracted to purchase in the fourth quarter of 2010 that are expected to come online in mid-2011. As we have indicated over the past 12 to 18 months, we have expected a number of assets to change hands, but the executed transactions have been fewer than we would have predicted. You should expect that when large assets or portions of assets come into the market, we will take a look at most, if not all of these opportunities and pursue the ones that fit into our portfolio and our strategic plans. As Lew, mentioned in December, the changes to the Royal Decree that we first mentioned during the second quarter earnings conference call were officially approved and incorporated into a revised Royal Decree. As a reminder, the Spain projects consist of two 49.9-megawatt solar thermal projects with molten salt storage. Under the current tariff, the projects will receive a government guaranteed premium tariff rate over their operating lives, which we estimate will be approximately 30 years. We are now working to finalize the financing for the projects that should provide the bulk of the funding for construction through the projects' commercial operations. While the financing has not been finalized, we are currently engaged with several European banks on a financing package that would provide the bulk of the necessary cash flows for construction and limit our exposure in the event of a change in the tariff to the amount of our equity investment. We began site work in January and expect the two units to reach commercial operations in 2013. The projects in Spain are a high priority for our development team, and are the only significant development or acquisition opportunity we are pursuing outside North America. We continue to believe the risk-adjusted returns are attractive and the projects represent a strategic opportunity for us to further build our skills in solar and expand our Solar Generation portfolio. We have a team permanently on the ground in Spain that is monitoring and managing all the developments that affect our projects. We monitor carefully the financial, economic and political developments in the country. And our team is engaged with the banks, local industry, government officials and other interested parties to manage and support our interests. Our overall Energy Resources projects gross margin and EBITDA expectations for 2011 and 2012 have not changed significantly since we reviewed them with you last quarter. The full gross margin hedge slides can be found in the appendix of this presentation, which is posted to our website. In 2011, the average hedge price for our non-spark spread merchant assets in terms of dollars per MMBtu of natural gas is $6.97, and the average hedge price in 2012 is $6.36. These prices are clearly above current market prices and highlight the effectiveness of our hedging program. In addition to incremental detail about 2011 and 2012, we wanted to give you a little perspective on the visibility we have on Energy Resources business in 2014. Predominantly, as a result of our portfolio of long-term contracted assets, approximately 69% of our existing power assets' expected gross margin is currently hedged in 2014. Regarding earnings sensitivities, the adjusted EPS sensitivity to changes in natural gas prices on our 2011 open positions is relatively modest. For every $1 per MMBtu change in gas prices, the annualized impact is approximately $0.03 per share on an adjusted earnings basis at NextEra Energy, Inc. For 2012, the equivalent adjusted earnings sensitivity is $0.06 per share. We also want to update the sensitivity regarding the wind resource for assets and service as of January 1, 2011. For every 1% change in the wind resource on an annual basis, adjusted EPS at NextEra Energy, Inc., would be impacted approximately $0.02 per share. To summarize 2010's fourth quarter results on an adjusted basis, FPL contributed $0.43, Energy Resources contributed $0.34 and Corporate and Other was a positive $0.03 contribution. That is a total of $0.80 per share compared to $0.79 per share in the fourth quarter of 2009 or a 1% increase year-over-year. On an adjusted basis for the full year 2010, FPL contributed $2.29 per share, Energy Resources contributed $1.93 and Corporate and Other was a positive $0.08 contribution. That is a total $4.30 compared to $4.05 per share in 2009 or a 6% increase year-over-year. Before turning the call back over to Lew, I wanted to spend just a minute discussing our long-term adjusted earnings per share guidance. Back at our May 2010 Investor Conference, when we first discussed our longer-term expectations, I indicated that primarily because of the significance of our current construction cycle at FPL, adjusted earnings per share growth through 2014 would be driven largely by FPL investments. That continues to remain true, and we should not forget about the value that our investments are bringing to our Florida customers. Our typical residential electric bill remains the lowest in Florida, and 24% below the national average. And we estimate that by 2014, our continuing investments and more efficient generation will save our customers roughly $1 billion per year relative to a 2001 base. We continue to believe that a laser-sharp focus on doing what is best for our customers will result in positive outcomes for our shareholders as well. And so by 2014, our expectations are that a majority of our consolidated adjusted earnings will be from the regulated side of our business, including our investments in Lone Star Transmission. We believe that not only will our regulated adjusted earnings per share make up roughly 60% of our consolidated adjusted earnings, but that on an EBITDA basis, roughly 80% of our forecasted adjusted EBITDA will be from investments that are either regulated or long-term contracted. For 2010, that percentage is approximately 74%. Of course, that assumes that new renewable investments in our plan through 2014 are long-term contracted. But that is a proper assumption since we are committed to invest in that side of our business only when we expect longer-term certainty in the cash flows from those investments. So that should give you some additional insight regarding the make-up of our expectations for 5% to 7% adjusted earnings per share growth per year through 2014 from a 2009 base. In 2011, we continue to believe that adjusted EPS within a range of $4.25 and $4.55 is a reasonable expectation. With that, let me turn the call back over to Lew.