Earnings Labs

Noodles & Company (NDLS)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 7, 2019

$11.84

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to today's Noodles & Company’s Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are now in a listen-only mode. After the presenters' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now introduce Noodles & Company's, Chief Financial Officer, Ken Kuick.

Ken Kuick

Management

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2019 earnings call. Here with me this afternoon is Dave Boennighausen, our Chief Executive Officer. I’d like to start by going over a few regulatory matters. During our opening remarks and in response to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. Any such items, including in our guidance about our anticipated results in 2019 and details relating to our future performance should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Such statements are only projections, and actual events or results could differ materially from those projections due to a number of risks and uncertainties. The Safe Harbor statement in this afternoon's news release and the cautionary statement in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for its 2018 fiscal year and subsequent filings with the SEC are considered a part of this conference call, including the portions of each that set forth the risks and uncertainties related to the company's forward-looking statements. I refer you to the documents the company files from time-to-time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for its 2018 fiscal year and subsequent filings we have made. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. During the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for our financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in our third quarter 2019 earnings release and our supplemental information. Now, I would like to turn it over to Dave Boennighausen, our Chief Executive Officer.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Thanks, Ken, and good afternoon, everyone. We continue to be pleased with the trajectory of the company, evidence by strong third quarter results. Highlights for the quarter include a 2.1% system-wide comparable restaurant sales increase, 7.6% two year comparable growth, margin expansion of 70 basis points and 118% increase in adjusted net income, both relative to prior year. The third quarter of 2019 also mark our sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales as the company continues to capitalize on the inherent strengths of the brand, including our ability to provide choice for today's consumer with favorites from kids to adults, healthy to indulgent and comfortable to adventurous. Additionally, we continue to benefit from the brand's unique capability to meet the consumer need for convenience, as digital sales increased 47% versus last year, and overall off-premise increased 490 basis points to 54% of sales. While we are pleased with the results in the third quarter, we are particularly excited with recent initiatives they've launched in just the past few weeks. We believe these initiatives will position the brand to finish 2019 strong and set a solid foundation for further growth in 2020 and beyond. I’d like to start from a culinary perspective. During the last week of Q3, we launched a cauliflower infused rigatoni dish system-wide. Choice has always been a great strength of the brand, and we continue to innovate in ways that allow guests to enjoy the world flavors they know and love, as well as discover new ones with all the benefits of healthier options. Building off of the success of the zucchini noodles launch in 2018, our cauliflower infused rigatoni provides a full serving of vegetables and has tremendous versatility as a substitute and all of our dishes. Well early we're very pleased with the initial…

Ken Kuick

Management

Thanks Dave. For the third quarter ended October 1st, 2019, we reported net income of $4.2 million or $0.09 per diluted share compared to net income of $1.1 million or $0.02 per diluted share during the third quarter of 2018. During the third quarter, the company recorded revenue of $118.3 million. System-wide comparable sales increased 2.1% comprised of a 2.2% increase at company-owned restaurants and a 1.6% increase at franchise locations. As Dave mentioned, the third quarter marker sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales growth and our two-year system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth remains strong at 7.6%. With a strong two-year growth, company LTM average unit volume has increased $95,000 from two years ago and was $1.157 million after Q3 of 2019. Company-owned comparable restaurant sales included an increase of approximately 5% of average check, partially offset by an approximate 1% decline in discounting and a 1.8% decline in core traffic. From a menu mix perspective, we saw continued growth from delivery as well as from the early second quarter launch of our new menu board that features premium priced signature items. Additionally, we saw a benefit from the higher check associated with our zucchini noodles, which continues to grow and mix. Turning to profit profitability, overall, restaurant margins in the third quarter improved 70 basis points versus the prior year to 17.1%, driven by leverage on higher average unit volume, supply chain initiatives, and labor efficiencies, partially offset by an increase in third-party delivery fees and labor inflation. Cost of goods sold as a percentage of restaurant sales decreased 120 basis points to 25.3% during the quarter, reflecting successful implementation of certain supply chain and pricing initiatives. We anticipate COGS between 25.5% and 26% in the fourth quarter of this year as we expect our cost savings initiatives…

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Thanks, Ken. Again, we're pleased with our Q3 2019 results as the company continues to grow profit, building the foundation for meaningful unit and revenue growth in the years to come. Our recent launch of both cauliflower noodles and our new rewards program continues to invigorate the brand and redefine how guests viewed and interact with noodles and company. I'm proud of the results the team has delivered thus far in 2019. And look forward to the bounce of the year and continued growth and 2020 and beyond. With that I would now like to turn it over to Sydney to open the lines for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Greg Badishkanian with Citi. Please proceed with your question. Q – Spencer Hanus: Hi, guys, this is actually Spencer Hanus on for Greg. My first question is just on comps that you are seeing quarter today, can you quantify the level of comp that you have so far? And then in terms of the cauliflower noodle, have you seen any cannibalization of the zucchini noodles sales post the launch of cauliflower noodle. I know it's too early but what have you seen so far?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Yeah, absolutely. Appreciate that Spencer. From the comp side, as we said still positive. It's literally and we do expected comps to accelerate as we go through the balance of Q4 and we’re still positive early here in the quarter. In terms of the cauliflower noodle, you know, we think it's a bit unfair to absolutely compare it to this zucchini noodle, which had the ability of bringing in lapsed users that really haven't thought through the brand in a while because of the perceived -- the perception of lack of health from the menu. Cauliflower on the other hand is extremely versatile noodle. We see that much more as a frequency driver, very encouraged, as we said with the initial mix of the cauliflower noodle, as well as with how can we substitute into other dishes. It ultimately Spencer, when we look at that healthy side of our menu, we believe that it has the ability to have menu mix in the 20%, 25% range. We continue to grow it well. But there's still significant runway in zucchini, cauliflower, the overall healthy side of our menu.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

Makes sense. And I think you'd also mentioned in your prepared remarks that you're seeing, you guys are rolling up premium pricing on delivery. Have you seen any pushback from consumers on that? What's been the response there?

Ken Kuick

Management

Yeah, hey, it's Ken Kuick, Spencer. We're pleased with the results we've seen so far. It's really early though, so just implemented in the last couple of weeks. So happy so far, respected things, but too early to really tell.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

It is something that we have tested Spencer over the past several months. And again, we felt comfortable that there was very little cannibalization, if any, or reduction in sales.

Spencer Hanus

Analyst

Perfect, all right, thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Jake Bartlett with Suntrust. Please proceed with your question.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst · Suntrust. Please proceed with your question.

Great, thanks for taking the question. Dave, there was a deceleration on a sequential basis from the second quarter. And then also on a two year basis, I'm also seeing it looks like delivery should have been an increasing impact. So if you could just talk about what the moving pieces are. Were there any changes in marketing in the quarter? I'm just trying to understand what might be causing a deceleration kind of the underlying business aside from delivery?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Yeah, absolutely, we're very comfortable with the underlying business performance. Jake, as you looked at the marketing spend for the year, we did take a delay in a pause and most of our marketing tactics. As you have the cauliflower launched on September 25th, ultimately, the rewards program launched on October 16, so from a detailed starting discount perspective, really 30% to 40% less than what we would typically spend in a given quarter. As well as from the media side, the little that we did was even significantly less than we had in prior quarter someone we would typically run. From the delivery side of the business, I think, as you've seen, throughout the industry, it's starting to normalize a bit. So our delivery as a percentage of sales in Q3 was 7.6%. I think, it was 6.6% during the second quarter. So it continues to increase continues to increase, continues to grow. But not at the rate that it was growing at earlier in the year.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst · Suntrust. Please proceed with your question.

Got it and then, just kind of getting deeper into the comments about your labor initiatives in the time study, in the kitchen that you've done in the equipment package. What should we expect from that I understand that you're putting into the new stores? Is that something that that you anticipate kind of retrofitting the system with? How should some of those learning's are be applied to the system and not just the new source?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Yeah, I mean, we talked about the digital aspect and what we want to start October 15th and how over time that will absolutely transform the business from an AUV side. This labor savings initiatives Jake we really think it's going to transform the economic model. So as we've talked in the past, our equipment package and our processes and the restaurants are pretty similar to what they were even 10 years ago. So, this has been a long process almost a year, culminating in us now starting to retrofit restaurants with design that has a few new pieces of equipment as well as a few changes in the processes and the flow within the restaurant. It's very early, we retrofitted 3 restaurants. We have 3 main kitchen designs. So we retrofitted 1 of each of those earlier in the quarter, very comfortable, very happy with what we're seeing from a labor savings perspective. Why we don't want to quantify it quite yet? Is, this is an important -- this is such an important project with such a big upside that we want to make sure we do it right. And that will entail that we will ultimately be going into all of our restaurants, retrofitting the equipment, so where it can execute on this process. It's not just labor savings, its speed, its flexibility, temperature of food. We're seeing good movement in all those items in those existing restaurants that have been retrofitted. From the new restaurant perspective, that new layout, new design with the new equipment will start coming into play early in 2020.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst · Suntrust. Please proceed with your question.

Got it? And then last question, can - just if you could go through the composition of the comp again, I guess I wasn't quite clear. Maybe if you could share what the menu pricing was? What the mix was? And then -- and then what the traffic was, that will be helpful?

Ken Kuick

Management

So many price in the third quarter 3.6%. Mix was 1.3%. And then as Dave alluded to earlier, with the pullback -- the strategic pullback and marketing a little bit in the third quarter with a discounted impact of 1% and then overall core traffic decline of about 1.7%.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst · Suntrust. Please proceed with your question.

Right, but with interest of core traffic -- should I just think of that is what we typically think of sort of traffic…

Ken Kuick

Management

Yeah. Absolutely, that's how we look at it.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst · Suntrust. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Andy Barish with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Andy Barish

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys, just can you give us a little more color on the marketing spend in sort of 3Q and 4Q, just kind of the change there?

Ken Kuick

Management

3Q to 4Q, so how we look at it is from a discount perspective from a sales driving side, we typically spend about 2.5% to 3% of sales on that figure, Andy. And in Q3, we only spent about 1.5%. So pretty significant decline in what we would normally invest in those activities. But you are seeing Q4 is actually probably pretty similar. It'll be balanced much more towards the back half of the quarter, but it will come back ups kind of that 2.5% range that we're more accustomed to. So pretty meaningful, decreasing spend. Additionally from the actual Restaurant Marketing spend which as you think of it -- from a media perspective that was also significantly less. We've spend about $1.8 million in more traditional digital type media during the first 3 quarters of 2018, that number was cut nearly in half during the first 3 quarters of 2019, which was much of that in Q3.

Andy Barish

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, yeah, that's kind of the number I was looking for. And then how are you thinking about the 20? Same store sales, you know, layers -- obviously the recent digital upgrades and cauliflower, but then what else should we be thinking about in terms of looking at the next year?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Yeah, we were very excited with the levers that we have for next year. I think the three that I would focus on the most first would be on the digital front, and that will transform the way that we interact with our guests and sit will be significantly stronger and better than what we've done in the past will be able to be much more targeted with how we communicate, whether it be through the online on the app or through the rewards program. Second one would still be the runway that we have a zucchini and cauliflower. Those continue to grow in Max. We still think there's a lot of opportunity for us increase awareness and trial for those items. And so you'll continue to see us push that. The third thing is catering. So we talked about that in the past is an area where we currently are less than 2% of sales. We think there's significant upside there. And for a brand that really choices, one of the absolute strengths of the brand, we absolutely are great fit for catering and so that we haven't really invested much in the past. So that would be the third lever that I would say is going to be a significant driver for 2020.

Andy Barish

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good afternoon. My first question is just on the guidance with the comps and revenue number coming down to the lower half of the range in keeping the restaurant margins and even kind of at the midpoint the same? Just can you help us out with the bridges at all the Delta on the marketing side? Are there any other changes in your assumptions on the costs?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

No, really, Andrew, it's just the strategic pause that we took from, from the marketing and cost perspective, when it came to the initiatives that were just rolled out in the last several weeks otherwise feel very comfortable with what we're seeing kind of throughout the P&L and throughout the fundamentals of the organization.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, and I'm curious on the frequency of your digital customers versus your non digital customers with digital growing as quickly as it is just trying to kind of frame up how powerful that could be as the mix continues to shift. And maybe even if you could talk about beyond frequency, just the spend difference more broadly?

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Yeah, so what I will say is that we're still a bit early on and so one of the things that we wanted to do with this project and to put a bit more color into our overall initiative here on digital, we're transforming the way that we engage with our guests through digital. And so, it also includes the capabilities for us to have much better insight into our guests from a longitudinal basis. So during our prior programs, it was really limited with our ability to understand the actual frequency of those digital users versus a typical guest. What this new platform allows us to do is have a greater understanding of how check changes over time the overall consumer lifecycle, how we can bring many more people into the funnel, and how we then convert them into frequent noodle users. So the answer is that since it's only in its infancy and only been around a couple of weeks, we actually don't have great data yet, Andrew on what that frequency is, but that's absolutely one of the intense of the -- intentions of this process. And this project is for us to have that type of data where we can easily activate and better engage with those guests.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

That's helpful. Thank you. If I could squeeze one more in. Once you start to reaccelerate further the pace of the unit openings in 2021 and beyond, how are you thinking about the markets that you're going to target initially. Is it more the existing markets, is it newer markets, is it a blend? How are you thinking about that? Thank you.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Yeah, certainly we think over the next couple of years, it will be primarily infill of existing markets. We have several I believe in 30 states we have several markets where we see significant opportunities still, whether it be Chicago or even in the heartland or in our home market of Colorado, areas like Phoenix et cetera. So continue to expect a lot of infill low risk sites that we absolutely understand and have the people pipeline to execute. As we go into new markets from a company perspective, we will be focused a bit more on contiguous to our markets that we already have to brand awareness and we know we can execute from an operational supply chain perspective as well as activate the brand. Additionally, we talked a bit about in the remarks about franchising, which we absolutely believe will be a larger part of our growth. We've been relatively conservative in terms of our approach to growing that franchise network over the past couple years, because we knew we had such tremendous upside with our prototype with those labor initiatives. Now that those are coming to pass, we're seeing such great momentum on the margin side as well as the sales side. You will see us be more aggressive on the franchise side, where a lot of the new market growth will occur.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Dave Boennighausen for any further remarks.

Dave Boennighausen

Management

Thanks, Sydney. Again, as we discussed, this is an exciting time for Noodles & Company with the recent launch of the cauliflower noodle, as well as with our new guests engagement platform. We feel the company is positioned better than ever to really reach its enormous potential. Excited with what we're seeing from a margin perspective from a top line perspective, as well as with that new unit growth. So look forward to the balance of 2019 as well as the years to come. I appreciate your time today and everybody stay safe.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.