Thomas Lesinski
Analyst · Texas Securities
Thank you, Chan. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. 2025 was a year of meaningful progress for National CineMedia. We executed against our strategic priorities by continuing to invest in our platform and capabilities, driving increased advertiser demand and further positioning NCM to perform against a broader range of attendance environments. We also strengthened our exhibitor relationships, most notably through a new deal with AMC that was announced in the second quarter. The momentum we built throughout the year carried through the fourth quarter as we broadened our industry-leading reach with the acquisition of Spotlight, adding a new high-end luxury option to our network. These actions translated into year-over-year revenue growth, supported by healthy advertiser demand for our sought-after audiences and our continued focus on driving growth across the platform. This strength was also reflected in our fourth quarter results. NCM delivered total fourth quarter revenue of $93 million, in line with our guidance range and growing nearly 8% year-over-year, outpacing attendance trends. Adjusted OIBDA for the quarter was $37 million, exceeding our guidance range and representing an increase of 6% versus the prior year, supported by solid revenue performance and the resilience of our asset-light model. These results were driven by healthy advertiser demand and continued improvements in inventory utilization across our network. We generated and successfully captured strong interest against the slate of highly anticipated titles, including Wicked: For Good, Avatar: Fire & Ash, and Zootopia 2. This was made possible by our continued investment in strengthening our sales team, expanding our programmatic platform, and advancing data and measurement capabilities to meet modern advertisers' requirements. In particular, our focus on broadening and enhancing audience targeting and performance attribution continues to improve the value of NCM's platform, enabling us to attract new advertisers and deepen relationships with existing ones. During the quarter, 18 advertisers placed cinema advertising campaigns at or above the $1 million level, reflecting growing confidence in cinema as a core advertising channel. Total advertising revenue increased 9% versus the prior year to $90 million, driven by continued performance in the retail, wireless, and travel categories, alongside growth in the entertainment and media, pharma, and technology categories. Across the industry, advertiser budgets continue to shift toward premium, high-impact environments that drive engagement and brand recall. That shift was reflected in strong sell-through across our premium national inventory, led by our Platinum and post-show inventory. As advertisers allocate more spend toward high-impact brand-safe environments, these premium options supported stronger monetization of our inventory and fueled a 27% year-over-year increase in overall impressions sold per attendee in the fourth quarter. We're also seeing tangible benefits from the standardization of our national footprint following our extended agreement with AMC. With a more consistent show structure, we are making campaign planning and scaling more efficient, strengthening our ability to drive demand and improve inventory monetization over time. Given the ongoing industry-wide tailwinds and our superior platform, we believe NCM is well positioned to capture a greater share of advertiser budgets, and we're seeing strong early demand indicators for 2026. Looking at the domestic box office, performance was mixed this quarter. While the quarterly box office total fell shy of industry expectations, NCM saw meaningful revenue pickup in the middle and tail end of the quarter. This was driven by major franchise releases, including Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash, that supported solid bookings and campaign activities as moviegoers continue to demonstrate their enduring love for cinema in the critical holiday period. Total attendance across NCM's network in the fourth quarter increased approximately 7% year-over-year to $107 million. With advertising revenue up 9% over that same period, we grew ahead of attendance, underscoring the value of our audiences, continuing appeal of our platform, and progress in efficiently monetizing open inventory across our network. As a reminder, NCM's year-over-year attendance growth also reflects the inclusion of an extra week in our fiscal fourth quarter this year. Despite this additional week of attendance, total advertising revenue per attendee increased in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong demand from advertisers. Now turning to our programmatic and self-serve initiatives, which are critical components of our strategy in capturing more premium video ad spend and increasing on-screen and in-lobby inventory utilization. Programmatic revenue increased 100% year-over-year as the offering continued to unlock new portions of client advertising budgets, specifically earmarked for programmatic initiatives. Compared to the prior year period, the total number of programmatic advertisers in the fourth quarter increased 2.4x, reflecting our continued investment in additional supply-side platform partnerships that further broaden access to our inventory and drive continued adoption by advertisers. Additionally, industry standardization continues to advance scalable access to cinema inventory, including recently updated inventory classifications that improve the discoverability of cinema within omnichannel programmatic workflows. Turning to local. Self-serve also gained further traction following the launch of the upgraded platform earlier in the year. Our generative AI-enabled tools increased creative control and shorten time to market, driving particular value for small and midsized advertisers as well as large advertisers looking to localize their national campaigns for greater impact. Looking at fourth quarter self-serve performance, we delivered 64% year-over-year growth. Self-serve remains a key driver of our long-term growth strategy, helping drive both national and local demand by making cinema advertising easier to access while allowing our sales team to prioritize larger, more strategic opportunities. In the fourth quarter, we saw encouraging signs of improvement as the national market stabilization we experienced in the third quarter extended into local markets as well. Local revenue increased year-over-year, reflecting the progress we're making as we reset and rebuild the local business. Importantly, we're seeing that improvement transit into better operating momentum as we refocus the local organization. We also made deliberate investments in local this quarter, including hiring a seasoned new senior leader to sharpen focus, improve operating discipline, and accelerate execution. We've also reengaged the local sales team around a clearer strategy and increasing day-to-day accountability with a more diversified list of targets and measurable outcomes. Operationally, we continue to scale local data-driven advertiser targeting, deepen our category expertise, and prioritize key verticals, including government, automotive, home services, and local law firms. As part of that effort, we are increasingly directing higher-value relationship-driven accounts to our sales teams while routing smaller transactional opportunities to our self-serve and programmatic solutions. Our NCMx-powered local data capabilities provide greater visibility into where demand is strongest and where inventory is most attractive, improving planning discipline and execution at the market level. In addition, our AI-enabled creative localization tool, Bullseye, continues to gain traction. For example, in the fourth quarter, one of the largest national retailers leveraged this capability to produce over 70 different local creative executions within one campaign, generating over 15 million impressions and demonstrating the power of our platform to enhance national campaigns with meaningful market-specific customizations. The campaign also drove measurable performance results with third-party measurement showing a 34% lift in foot traffic to retail locations. Taken together, we believe these steps position us for continued improvement in local performance as market conditions improve. Our offering remains a differentiator, giving advertisers a highly effective geo-targeted way to reach desirable audiences in a captive opt-in environment at scale. We see local as a meaningful return to growth opportunity, supported by our recent leadership investments, a renewed focus on execution and the positive momentum we saw emerge in the fourth quarter. This year, NCM continued to connect advertisers with sought-after engaged audiences in uniquely immersive ways. As production studios lean in on sequels and remakes to capitalize on fan favorite franchises, we're seeing particularly strong advertiser demand against these films. In addition to our existing premium inventory, we're meeting that demand through custom title-themed preshows designed to tap into moviegoer enthusiasm. This quarter, alongside the tent pole release Wicked: For Good, we delivered branded preshow experiences featuring trivia and franchise flashbacks that celebrated fan engagement. These custom integrations enhance the value of our preshow inventory and helped offset the softer-than-expected box office performance. Given their success, we plan to significantly expand our custom preshow activations in 2026, leaning into popular franchise installments such as Toy Story 5, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Minions 3: Mega Minions and Dune Messiah. We are also leveraging AI-enabled creative tools to accelerate production and customization, allowing us to respond more quickly to early box office signals and capitalize on breakout hits. We also made progress in our network expansion initiative this quarter. The strategic acquisition of Spotlight in November brings premium luxury screens and audiences to our platform, expanding our reach and appeal among high-end luxury advertisers while creating new revenue opportunities. Our Spotlight strategy is progressing as planned and is diversifying and deepening our appeal to new advertisers. As we head into 2026, our continued investments are strengthening NCM's ability to compete and win in the premium video advertising market. We remain focused on attracting new advertisers, deepening existing relationships, and continuing to prove the differentiated value of cinema advertising. The upcoming 2026 slate is robust and balanced and represents a meaningful improvement versus recent years with a more consistent flow of major releases across all 4 quarters. This steadier cadence supports more predictable campaign planning for advertisers, assuming box office performance tracks current expectations and provides longer demand-generating runways for highly anticipated tent poles like the Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey and Avengers: Doomsday. 2026 is shaping up to be the first true benchmark year for the industry since the pandemic and the first normal box office year since the industry strike. As the market continues to return, we believe there is meaningful upside for NCM. Looking to the first quarter, early visibility is encouraging. We are seeing continued contribution from December releases with titles such as Avatar: Fire & Ash, Zootopia 2, and The Housemaid carrying the holiday momentum into the start of the year. As Ronnie will explain in his remarks, NCM's first quarter results will reflect the absence of the first week of January, which was included in our fourth quarter this year. That said, we're encouraged by sustained demand for our inventory, driven by first quarter hits, including Send Help and Wuthering Heights.