Katie Scherping
Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question
Thanks Tom. I will walk through the operating results that Tom highlighted in further detail; discuss our thoughts on the quarter as well as our full year outlook. Then, we'll open the call to your questions. We will be providing a supplemental presentation of these results on our website for your future reference. For the second quarter, our total revenue was $110.2 million compared to $113.7 million in Q2 2018, a decrease of 3.1%. This $3.5 million change was driven by a $1.2 million decrease in national advertising revenue, $1.5 million decrease in regional revenue, a $400,000 decrease in local revenue, and a $400,000 decrease in beverage revenue. Total Q2 adjusted OIBDA was $50.2 million, a decrease of $2.1 million or 4% versus Q2 2018. The adjusted OIBDA margin for the quarter was 45.6% compared to 46% during the same period last year, primarily due to a decrease in revenue, partially offset by $1 million in lower operating expenses, driven by a decrease in legal and professional fees, which were incurred last year related to negotiation of a settlement agreement with our largest stockholder. Our theater access fees were flat compared to last year, but we had a decrease in the attendance portion of the fees related to lower box office attendance compared to a year ago, which were offset by an increase in digital screen fees, which increased 5% annually. The Q2 and year-to-date decrease in national revenue was driven by a weaker scatter market compared to a strong scatter market last year. In addition, as Tom mentioned earlier, the weaker-than-expected June box office continue attendance contributed a record second quarter make-good ending balance of $5.7 million compared to $2.5 million a year ago, a swing of $3.2 million at quarter end and compared to $4.7 million Q1 2019 ending make-good. For the second quarter 2019, national ad revenue was $77.6 million, a $1.2 million or 1.5% decrease versus Q2 2018. The change was driven by a $3.2 million increase in the quarter end make-good balance, a 10.4% decrease in CPMs, partially offset by a 4.3% increase in impressions sold and higher branded content revenue. The increase in impressions sold was driven by a 9.3% increase in inventory utilization to 110.8% from 101.5% in Q2 2018, as we delivered impressions from the first quarter end make-good balance during the quarter, partially offset by a 4.5% decrease in attendance versus prior year. The decrease in CPMs is driven by a shift to higher Q2 2019 upfront spending versus higher scatter a year ago. Also recall, last quarter, we had some high CPM upfront clients run campaigns, resulting in almost a 10% CPM increase in Q1. Looking forward, we expect CPM to normalize resulting in low single-digit growth in 2019. Q2 regional ad revenue decreased 18.3% or $1.5 million from $8.2 million to $6.7 million versus the second quarter of 2018 and was primarily due to a $1 million shift in spend within the automotive category, as one client shifted their spending from regional advertising to national advertising. That said, Q3 is trending up year-over-year, and we expect regional revenue to bounce back in the second half of 2019 as our shift in sales strategy, Tom mentioned earlier, is gaining traction. Q2 local ad revenue slightly decreased 2.2% or $400,000 from $18.1 million to $17.7 million compared to last year. The decrease in local advertising revenue was due to a 7.7% decrease in the volume of local contracts and a 2.1% decrease in average contract value. This was partially offset by strength in our local digital sales revenue that Tom mentioned earlier. Q2 beverage revenue decreased 4.7% or $400,000 from $8.6 million to $8.2 million versus Q2 2018, driven by a decrease in founding member attendance, partially offset by a slight increase in beverage CPMs year-over-year. Our Q2 2019 advertising revenue mix was 71% national, 6% regional, 16% local, and 7% beverage versus Q2 2018 that was 69%, 7%, 15%, and 8%, respectively. For the first six months of 2019, total revenue decreased 3.5% or $6.8 million to $187.1 million from $193.9 million in the first six months of 2018. Adjusted OIBDA decreased $3.3 million or 4.4% to $72.3 million from $75.6 million in the first six months of 2018, and adjusted OIBDA margin decreased to 38.6% from 39% versus the first six months of 2018. For the first six months of 2019, national ad revenue was $131.6 million, a $2 million or 1.5% decrease versus the first 6 months of 2018. The decrease was driven by 2.2% decrease from CPM, a 1.4% decrease in impressions sold, partially offset by an increase in branded content. The decrease in impressions sold was the result of an increasing utilization to 107.8% from 98.4% as we continue to deliver impressions this year to satisfy the record $8 million year end 2018 make-good as well as from network attendance that decreased 10% versus the first six months of 2018. As mentioned earlier, on a year-over-year basis, we expect a stronger performance in the second half of this year for our national advertising business. For the first six months of 2019, regional ad revenue decreased 16.5% or $2 million from $12.1 million to $10.1 million versus the first half of 2018. Half of this decrease is driven by the shift from regional advertising to national advertising by a major automotive client. As our new regional sales strategy begins to take hold, we expect a stronger second half of 2019 resulting in year-over-year increase in our regional ad business. For the six months of 2019, local ad revenue decreased 3.5% or $1.1 million from $31.6 million to $30.5 million compared to last year. The decrease in advertising revenue was due to a 10.2% decrease in the volume of local contract, partially offset by 2.3% increase in average contract value combined with the higher local digital sales revenue. For the first six months of 2019, beverage revenue decreased 10.2% or $1.7 million from $16.6 million to $14.9 million versus the first six months of 2018, and was driven by a 9.6% decrease in founding member attendance, partially offset by a slight increase in beverage CPMs. For the second quarter, we reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.11 versus an earnings per diluted share of $0.05 in Q2 2018. For the six months of 2019, we reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.10 compared to earnings per diluted share of $0.03 in the first six months of 2018. The increase in the EPS was related to lower tax expense in 2019 compared to 2018. In 2018, we recorded deferred tax expense related to revaluing deferred tax assets from decreases in state income tax rates. For the first six months of 2019, capital expenditures were $6.9 million versus $7.2 million spent in 2018 driven by the relocation of our corporate headquarters in 2018, partially offset by increased investments in our digital infrastructure. We are estimating that our full year 2019 capital expenditures will be in the $15 million to $16 million range or approximately 3% of revenue, including $7 million to $8 million of digital investment. In the second quarter, and for the first six months of 2019, we recorded $5.7 million and $8.1 million, respectively, of integration and other encumbered theater payments from Cinemark and AMC associated with Rave Theaters and Carmike Theaters versus $5.6 million and $7.8 million last year. As a reminder, note that these integration and other encumbered theater payments are added to adjusted EBITDA -- OIBDA for debt compliance and partnership cash distribution purposes, but are not included in reported revenue or adjusted OIBDA as they are recorded as a reduction to net intangible assets on the balance sheet. We expect to record approximately $21 million to $23 million of integration payments from our founding members during 2019. It should be noted that these integration payments for AMC's Carmike theaters will continue to the life of BSA or to 2037. Moving onto our balance sheet, our total debt outstanding at NCM LLC at the end of Q2 2019 was $925 million versus $950 million at the end of Q2 2018. Our revolver balance at the end of the second quarter 2019 was $27 million compared to $30 million at the end of Q2 2018. Our average interest rate on all debt was approximately 5.8% at the end of Q2 compared to 5.6% in Q2 2018, including our $268 million floating rate term loan bank debt and revolving credit facility that had a rate of approximately 5.4%. Excluding revolver balances, 68% of our total debt outstanding at the end of Q2 2019 had a fixed interest rate. Our way of reminder under our charter, we can pay down up to $15 million of our debt annually without founding member and Board approval. For the six months 2019, we have retired $5 million of our 2026 senior unsecured bonds for $4.6 million. We are going to continue to evaluate this discretionary use of cash based on future expected leverage levels, LLC investment opportunities, and our public company dividend policy. Our total net leverage at NCM LLC as of the end of Q2 2019 was approximately 4.2 times trailing four quarter adjusted OIBDA, which is well below our consolidated net total leverage maintenance covenant of 6.25 times. Our consolidated net senior secured leverage ratio was 3.1 times versus the covenant of 4.5 times. Our consolidated cash and investment balances as of Q2 2019 was $62 million, with $57 million of this balance at NCMI. We currently have enough net cash available to cover over four quarters of dividends at NCMI with approximately $0.75 per share of cash on hand at the end of Q2 2019. We announced today that the Board of Directors has authorized the company's regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per common share of stock. The dividend will be paid on August 30th, 2019 to stockholders of record on August 15th, 2019. The dividend level was determined based on our plans to invest in the business, while providing financial flexibility and a sustainable dividend for our stockholders. The company intends to pay a regularly quarterly dividend for the foreseeable future at the discretion of the Board of Directors consistent with the company's intention to distribute over time a substantial portion of its free cash flow. The declaration payment timing amount of future dividends will be at the sole discussions of the Board of Directors who will consider general economic and advertising market business conditions, the company's financial conditions, available cash, current and anticipated cash needs, and any other factors that Board of Directors considers relevant. Our annual tax deferred dividend yield is currently 9.8% based on today's closing share price of $6.92. Now, turning to guidance, as we've noted earlier, we have a strong film slate that we are excited about in the back half of the year as well as easier quarterly comparisons. In addition, Q3 sales are trending ahead of last year. We are reiterating our revenue guidance of up 1.9% to up 5.3% versus 2018, or in the range of $450 million to $465 million, and adjusted OIBDA guidance of up 0.8% to up 5.6% or in the range of $207 million to $217 million. Looking ahead at NCM LLC's available cash calculation for 2019, starting with our adjusted OIBDA guidance of $207 million to $217 million, you will add the following as a build to available cash; one, integration payments of $21 million to $23 million; and two, cash payments from Fathom note receivable of $5.7 million. Note, this is the last year we will receive payment for this note receivable. As a reduction to available cash, you will subtract the followings; one, cash interest expense of approximately $53 million to $54 million; two, annual scheduled debt principal amortization of $2.7 million, plus any potential additional debt repurchases up to $15 million annually, of which we have already purchased $5 million; capital expenditures of $15 million to $16 million; and four, non-cash comp for Inc. employees of approximately $2.5 million to $3 million. These are the components that will allow you to arrive at a projection for available cash at NCM LLC at the end of 2019, which is paid to the 4 founding members of the partnership -- the four members of the partnership; Regal Cineworld, Cinemark, AMC and NCMI on a quarterly basis based on their ownership at the end of the quarter. In addition to the available cash distributed to NCMI from NCM LLC and consistent with prior year, we project approximately $5 million to be paid to NCMI from NCM LLC for management fees, plus $1 million of interest earned on NCMI cash balances reduced by the expected payout of $15 million to $16 million for payments under the tax receivable agreement to our founding member. This will allow you to arrive at net cash available to fund current annual dividend payments with the payout at the midpoint of that guidance of approximately 82%. This concludes our prepared remarks and we will now open the line for questions. Operator?