Earnings Labs

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 5, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the National CineMedia Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Katie Scherping, Chief Financial Officer. You may begin.

Katie Scherping

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Sherry. Good morning, I’m joined here in Denver today by Cliff Marks our President and Interim CEO; and Tom Lesinski our Chairman of the Board. I’d like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934 as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical fact communicated during this conference call, may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the company’s expectations are disclosed in the risk factors contained in the company’s filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors. Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures. In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP measurement. These reconciliations can be found at the end of today’s earnings release, which may be found on the Investor Page of our website at www.ncm.com. Now, with that I’ll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome everyone. Before we turn the call over to Cliff Marks to discuss our results, I’d like to take a few minutes to review the leadership transition we announced this morning. As you saw, we announced that Andy England has stepped down as the Chief Executive Officer and that Cliff has been appointed to the additional role of Interim CEO. The board appreciates Andy’s service to the company, his work over the past several years has been important in helping us reinvent the pre-show and launch our newly brand, diversify our client base, and build our emerging NCM Digital products. At the same time, we believe that there is significant untapped potential in our platform and that new leadership is needed to unlock this potential. Through our CEO search, we want to identify a visionary leader who can capitalize on the strength of our company and our unique cinema advertising medium and innovate around NCM’s core business to ensure that we’re best positioned for sustainable, profitable growth and value creation for our advertising partners and shareholders alike. The board is very confident in NCM and in the company’s future. We are the largest cinema advertising network in North America with long-term commitments from the three largest exhibitors in the United States. Our addressable market is sizable and growing within expanding and increasingly diversified client base. Our products deliver results for our advertising partners, connecting their brands to our valuable hard to reach movie audiences. And our financial foundation is strong with operations that drive high margins and strong cash flows. From this perspective, we are initiating the CEO search from position of strength and great opportunity. As the board conducts its search with the assistance of Korn Ferry, we are very pleased that Cliff has agreed to serve as Interim CEO adding to his role as NCM’s President. As I’m sure many of you know, Cliff has spent more than half of his professional career with NCM. He’s been part of the NCM senior leadership team since 2002 and has served as the company’s President since 2016. All in all, Cliff has more than 30 years of advertising, marketing and sales experience in the media and entertainment industry. Cliff’s deep familiarity with our operations, our people in our industry make him a natural choice to serve as Interim CEO. We are confident that his leadership combined with the continued support of the team in place will help ensure a seamless transition during this period. With that, I will turn it over to Cliff for a few key remarks on the business before Katie reviews the financial results of the third quarter.

Cliff Marks

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Tom. I’d like to begin by saying that is truly a honor to take on the additional role as Interim CEO. Throughout my tenure as President enjoying my 16 years with NCM, I’ve seen firsthand the potential of our organization. Like Tom and the rest of the board, I’m incredibly confident in the company’s future and I look forward to continuing to work together with our talented employees to harness the power of America’s moving network and ensure a smooth transition into the best chapter for NCM. I will now turn to review with the company’s third quarter 2018 results and highlights. Katie will then provide a more detailed discussion of our financial performance in guidance. As always, we will leave time for questions. Third quarter total revenue decreased 5.4% to $110 million from $116.4 million for the comparable quarter last year. Adjusted OIBDA decreased 14.4% to $536 million for the third quarter of 2018 from $62.6 million for the third quarter of 2017. The Q3 year-over-year decline is in contrast with strong first half of the year and highlights the quarter-to-quarter volatility in our business. That said, we feel good about the fourth quarter and have increased our revenue guidance to $435 million to $450 million and feel that we will end up the year within our guidance for adjusted OIBDA of $205 million to $215 million. Total revenue for the first nine months of 2018 increased 6.5% to $304 million from $285.4 million for the comparable period last year. And adjusted OIBDA increased 5.5% to $129.2 million for the first nine months of 2018 from $122.5 million for the first nine months of 2017. Both our national and local and regional sales teams experienced a challenging third quarter. National advertising revenue was down 4.4% to $80.8 million…

Katie Scherping

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Cliff. I’ll walk through the results that Cliff highlighted in further detail, discuss our thoughts on the quarter and our outlook for the rest of the year then we’ll open the call to your questions. We will be providing a supplemental presentation of these results on our website for your future reference. For the third quarter, our total revenue decreased 5.4% or $6.3 million to $110.1 million versus $116.4 million Q3 2017, driven by a 4.4% or $3.7 million decrease and national advertising revenue, a 13.1% or $3.3 million decrease in local and regional advertising revenue partially offset by 10.4% or $700,000 increase in beverage revenue from $6.7 million to $7.4 million. Total Q3, 2018 adjusted OIBDA decreased 14.4% or $9 million to $53.6 million from $62.6 million in the third quarter of 2017. And adjusted OIBDA margin decreased to 48.7% from 53.8% in Q3 2017. The decline in an adjusted OIBDA was driven by a decrease in both national and local and regional businesses. For the first nine months of 2018, we are still ahead of the same period last year as total revenues increased 6.5% or $18.6 to $304 million from $285.4 in the first nine months of 2017. Adjusted OIBDA increased $6.7 million or 5.5% to $129.2 million from $122.5 in the first nine months of 2017, well adjusted OIBDA margin decreased slightly to 42.5% from 42.9% versus the first nine months of 2017. The year-to-date increases are driven by an increase in high margin national advertising revenue due to a significantly stronger scatter market up 18.9% in 2018 compared to last year. Now, the Q3 year-to-date adjusted OIBDA results included $1.5 million of nonrecurring legal and professional fees related to our settlement with Standard General in a 7.7% or $4.4 increase in theater access fees…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Eric Handler with MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Eric Handler

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Good morning. [Technical Difficulty] Question for Tom. With Andy’s departure, I’m just curious what is it you’re looking for a permanent CEO and sort of what the strategic direction you want this CEO to take that, Andy maybe wasn’t quite delivering that for you guys?

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Let me say this, so this was a collective decision by the board in considering whether to renew Andy’s contract and I’ve looked at the totality of his contribution to the company. And we certainly appreciate his contributions. The board’s looking for a new leadership that will ultimately take the company to the next level unlocks significant potential in NCMs platform. And most importantly, this is about unlocking NCMs potential. So as we look for new leadership, we will factor all those things into the equation, but importantly it’s about unlocking NCMs potential and value.

Eric Handler

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

So just to press you a little further on the potential and value, how is it with advertising? Is it on a digital land? Where is this that you believe that.

Katie Scherping

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Eric, you’re breaking up a little bit.

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Eric, we didn’t hear the last half of your question. Your phone broke up.

Eric Handler

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Okay. So I’m just trying to get a sense of when you say unlock potential, where do you see that potential is on the digital side, and maybe you could just fine tune of some of those comments from the very broad strokes you’re giving.

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

So ultimately it’s going to be the decision of the new CEO on the board to decide this, but ultimately the growth in the company is going to come from our traditional growth in the platform, potentially higher value inventory in the platform as well as growth in digital. And I want to leave it at that in terms of the specifics that we’re going to talk about today.

Eric Handler

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Fair enough. And with regards to the fourth quarter, wondering if it sounds like there was some national advertising that was switched out of Q3 into Q4, can you maybe say how much of that valley of that inventory was? And sort of what gives you the increased confidence maybe how much of the fourth quarter is already booked to get chips or the guidance just to frame some of those metrics?

Katie Scherping

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Eric, I mean, I think we’ve said in the call in the script that we see the upfront moving more fourth quarter, so we didn’t see as much in Q3 it will be more heavily weighted in Q4, and we increased our guidance to reflect that confidence and that’s really a specific as I’m going to get.

Eric Handler

Analyst · MKM Partners. Please proceed with your question

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Eric Wold with B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Eric Wold

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, good morning. A couple of questions around the local, regional, I guess you noted that 80% decline in Q3 was due to loss of one customer, is that one quarter event? Are they gone for good and not looking to you for your name them or kind of what drove the decision? You know, if it is gone for good, it’s going to move away from this medium.

Cliff Marks

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

Hey, Eric. It’s Cliff. The one customer that we lost was in automotive and had a very good launch the previous year and U. Cinema as their launch vehicle, they love our medium. They’ll be back for sure.

Eric Wold

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. So it wasn’t a last , it was just timing versus last year. Okay. And then I guess besides that one customer you, you did a complete kind of rebuild, so to speak of the regional, local sales force last year had a kind of a slow start started the are good Q2, what, what can you read into Q3 and maybe what you’re seeing so far Q4 about what that rebuild is kind of doing, it just still going more work to be done there.

Cliff Marks

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

I believe we’ve restructured our local and regional team to fit with the marketplace demands today. We have the right organization on the field for the way media is being bought locally, regionally. Feel pretty good about the local team.

Eric Wold

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Then just final for me, I know it’s knowledge [ph] for official guidance for next year. Maybe just give a little comfort in terms of what you’re seeing so far into next year around kind of commitments upfront or anything kind of give more confidence in terms of the trends into next year?

Katie Scherping

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

Yes. The only thing Eric, that we’re going to share publicly is that, guide for they were trending a little bit better on the upfront side, but you know, we don’t get specific the rounding up front, but we are seeing a little bit better trying to this year versus last year.

Eric Wold

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

That helps. Okay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jim Goss with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

Jim Goss

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. In terms of strategy, you’ve talked over the past couple of years of wanting to add the digital since that’s where advertising is going and some other things, and I know you’re going to continue in some of those efforts, but I’m wondering is there any sense that given that you had basically owned the movie advertising space, a very, very much dominated at the, that you had too many distractions away from that and that’s part of what you need to do is a reassert yourself and your core base business.

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

So this is Tom, it’s always been the focus of the board and the company to focus on the core and the digital assets that we’ve created are always designed to support the core. And while sometimes maybe we talk a lot more about digital, the business that we are focused on is the, in theater movie advertising business. Almost all of the advertising that we focus on is that. And I think importantly the digital products while they get a lot of news are really designed to support the core. So I wouldn’t characterize it as a distraction. I would characterize it as a ancillary strategy that supports our core business.

Katie Scherping

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

I also break [ph] we focus on digital because of the investment we’re making, both capital and operating investment in that. So that explained some of the investment the company is making to support the core with digital.

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

I’d also add that we brought in some digital experts who focused on that in fixed. No, no time away or focus away from the core media advertising sales organization.

Jim Goss

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Good to hear. And then in the – I was wondering, any early impact you’re detecting from the subscription programs in particular, it seems you were talking about one to one targeting and this is an area where you would have much better demographic data and it could facilitate your objectives. Is there anything you’d say about that either so far or what you expect can happen?

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

I think one of the most important thing is about building our digital business. It will allow us to have a one to one relationship with our customers. As we build first party in information and data. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised to see how we’ll be able to leverage that future.

Jim Goss

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And then finally, the, the notion that you’ve said a couple of times about upfront dollar, dollar sitting later in the year. Was this, the way it was set originally or was there a shift to have that taken place? I was just curious if that was in the guidance should given for the third quarter and then it just rolled over into the form?

Katie Scherping

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Well when our upfront are placed where we place them for the year and then it’s up to the advertisers to make the decision on what quarter they want to show their advertising. So we don’t have a lot of control over that and that’s pretty volatile quarter-to-quarter, but for the year we have pretty decent visibility. It’s just on a quarter-to-quarter basis that it shifts around.

Jim Goss

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

Okay. And is the fourth quarter part of that year or does it that you’re extending un till next summer?

Katie Scherping

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

It’s part of the year and some of our next upfront up front is some, some of them are booked for five quarters, so we do see some of that benefit coming in Q4 as well.

Jim Goss

Analyst · Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Mike Hickey with Benchmark Company. Please proceed.

Mike Hickey

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

Hi, Cliff and Katie. Hopefully you guys are good this morning. I guess on the executive search, Cliff is definitely a strong leader here. Is he a candidate, do you think for CEO and also wondering if court is, is back in the mix or if he’s going to be sticking up and aspen just curious just on those two pieces and I have a follow up.

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

Yes, this is Tom. So, Cliff is obviously an excellent candidate. He’s not planning to be a permanent candidate for this position. We’re not going to talk about any other specific candidates, but I will say there’s no plans for [indiscernible] in that role.

Mike Hickey

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

Okay. Fair enough. I guess the second question back to sort of how you’re thinking about unlocking value and sort of how you balance, I guess maybe sort of shaping a more consistent, stable operating model, sort of flat slow sales growth, but obviously a cash flow story which I think a lot of investors are comfortable with versus what I think hearing is sort of a scenario where you’re looking to drive top line growth, how you balance I guess those two direction strategically?

Tom Lesinski

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

I think what I would say about top line growth, that’s correct. We’re not going to tell you on this call today, what our plans are for top line growth, but the board and Cliff and the rest of the management team is focused on unlocking value on the top line and bottom line basis. Once we’ve got that solidified will certainly update you on the next call about that. But we do believe there’s a lot of top line growth available to the company going forward.

Mike Hickey

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

Okay, good. That’s helpful. I guess the last one, I’m obviously does a lot of volatility in the model, but we’ve lost some transparency. I think over the last year plus in terms of quarterly guidance and, and also last intense parents are aware up front is who’s tracking relative, your bookings target, et cetera. I think both those were helpful measures for us to sort of get a near term guide on, on expectations. So how, I guess, how you’re thinking about maybe providing more insight, near term sight to how you’re going to perform so we don’t see such a disconnect between the quarterly consensus and where your budget it actually is.

Katie Scherping

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

Yes. And Mike, when about two years ago we changed our quarterly guidance on, to an annual guide and really, you know, the volatility that we see in quarter-to -quarter and last Q3 in this Q3 we’re very different tale, and so for us to give quarterly guidance and show that volatility or predict that volatility with enough accuracy to give you guys confident that far in advance is just not realistic for us and our, our businesses is volatile as we said on this call. So we’ll stick with our annual guidance. And we’ll give you as much visibility on the call like we said inQ4, we’re trending confidently into Q4 and the upfront is just too big of a, I guess a number that, that it can be changed during the year based on the contracts with our customers. So there’s optionality within that. We have confidence that we’re trending above last year, so we do share that, but as far as specific numbers, it’s too difficult and for us we don’t see that the placements of those upfront dollars until the advertiser decides to spend them. So it’s not something we have control over or perfect visibility to on a quarter to quarter basis, which is why we don’t get too specific of a detail on every quarter, but now we feel confident that Q4 is coming in, as we said above last year’s Q4.

Mike Hickey

Analyst · Benchmark Company. Please proceed

Okay. Totally understand. Thanks Katie. Thanks guys. I Appreciate it. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

We have reached the end of our question and answer session, I would like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

Cliff Marks

Analyst · B. Riley & Company. Please proceed with your question

We’ve made great progress or overall strategy in the third quarter, and as indicated by the increase in our revenue guidance, we continue to feel good about the full year 2018 and the future growth of NCM. We introduced new NCM digital products and Noovie local offerings to enhance our core business, pay down debt, and continue to lay the path for growth in 2019 and beyond. As President and Interim CEO, I’m committed to continuing to fully capitalize on our unique market position as the largest cinema network in the country, while ensuring that we continue to grow our business through this transitional period and long into the future. Thank you for participating in our third quarter 2018 earnings call, and I’ll see you at the Noovie’s.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.