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Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 27, 2010

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Transcript

Dennis Smith

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today on Nabors' Conference Call. As usual, we'll limit the call about an hour. Gene will give 20 to 30 minutes of remarks about the results of the quarter and the outlook as we see it. And then, we'll line up with 30 minutes or so of Q&A. With us as usual besides Gene and myself today is Tony Petrello, our President, Chief Operating Officer; Laura Doerre, our General Counsel; Clark Wood, our Chief Accounting Officer; all of our Unit President including the most newest one, Dave Wallace, with the exception of SIGI [ph], he is figuratively safer than we're at today, sitting across the table from James [ph]. He is in the Middle East today. I just want to remind everybody quickly that since we'll going to be talking about the outlook, that is considered forward-looking statements and subject to change. But we're trying to give you the best guess we have, and please refer to our risk factors in our various filings for the full download of the possible things that could go wrong. With that, I will pass it over to Gene.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Thanks, Denny. Again, welcome everybody to the third quarter conference earnings conference call. Again, I want to thank you for participating. As usual, we have posted to the Nabors' website a series of slides that contain details about the performance of the various segments of the company. Please refer to these as we proceed. I'll try to be as I usually try to be short of the normal and give the highlights and give room for questioning thereafter. Again, it was a terrific quarter. I think the clear bottom line, however, is that because of our solid operational performance in our North American businesses, we had $164 million of operating income in the quarter, overall, and $0.29 in earnings per share, exclusive of items and I'll spend a few minutes on the items. These are changes from GAAP results and as usual, you folks are welcome to and usually do making our own adjustments to what we think is an investment. Firstly, our Canadian and Colombian E&P assets are not only on sale, but I'll discuss later how that's proceeding. And so we've previously said in ourselves to classify those as discontinued operation, and the impact of that is that they were not discontinued operations, pro forma the adjusted earnings would have been $0.27 instead of the $0.29. So that's a $0.02 impact. In addition, here are some of the other things, pretax. $37 million write-down of buildings in HH are Chinese rig manufacturer even though we have a sizable unrealized gain in that. We have expensed $7 million pretax cost related to the acquisition of Superior Well Services Inc. And finally, we have a number of pretax non-cash asset impairment, which added up to $0.33 per share after taxes. A pretax number of $54 million in E&P investments, which…

Dennis Smith

Management

Camille, I think we're ready to begin the question-and-answer session please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Dan Boyd with Goldman Sachs.

Daniel Boyd - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst · Dan Boyd with Goldman Sachs

I think North America pretty much speaks for this quarter. But you mentioned that international has been a drag in the past few quarters. So when we look out to '11 and we look at the guidance that you're given basically $340 million in EBIT, how should we think about sort of the upside risk, downside risk to that, and how much of it is already contracted, how much of the fleet rolls over in '11? And maybe talk about your expectations for what it's contracted?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Basically, I think Denny can probably offline give you the specific assumptions. But we're assuming that the rigs, the jack-ups that's being contracted but essentially, the margin comes close to disappearing. I think we've been awarded contracts. As I said, the good news is in Iraq we will be making a little bit of money short-term and hopefully that our money long term. And also, Saudi is getting a little better than we have thought initially on land with our rigs being converted to gas drilling. So it's hard to say but where as -- and also Mexico is not going to get worse. It's not going to get worse. So when you consider everything that's relevant, including we haven't started with the Papua New Guinea project yet. A couple bunch of things that are signed, sealed but not yet bottom line. You can never be certain, but I am pretty much certain than I have been certainly they were at the bottom internationally.

Daniel Boyd - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst · Dan Boyd with Goldman Sachs

On North America, you made a couple of comments on margins. On one hand, it sounds like you're seeing leading-edge margins when we got but expect that continue to roll for the results as rigs that were maybe repriced in '09 can roll to higher rates. Yet your comments were -- seems like you're maybe just being just not wanting to be conservative on guiding up from the guidance outlook because you're talking about flat margins from here. Why if the market stays...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I guess I would say that if you push us we'd say, we expect a modest increase. But more like 100, 150 or 100 a quarter a day or anything like it. The whole thing, I don't know what the gas price is today but it was like $3.30 or something yesterday and we just track with our NFR affiliates and they're not able to drill on anything. And so the drill in connection with the hedges they have in place. But that's going to impact where our own operations or approximately for the whole NAM industry I think. You got to say with these kinds of gas prices, the rig counts at risk. And it's not sandbagging, it's the real risk and I hope it doesn't come fast and I did point out that if we're lucky enough to keep the current rig count, we'll end up with higher profit. But you know, that's the hope but the risk is real. It's not sandbagging, absolutely.

Daniel Boyd - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Analyst · Dan Boyd with Goldman Sachs

On Canrig, saw a really nice or there's the other segment which includes Canrig saw a nice jump off this quarter and you mentioned in the press release, you think that's sustainable. Can you just talk about what the outlook is there? What you're seeing in your backlog and how that's progressing?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

It's pretty good. I mean, we have to increase the production level in cap drive and we're trying to develop a bigger top drive and looking on developing smaller top drives more units and things like that. I think they have really good -- technically, we weren't even looking at the -- maybe, I don't know, a couple of three acquisitions that would fit in there. So I think the people are really good technically. I think as I said the two ways, they help us is the make money on their own and even better as they help us market rigs, $12,000, $14,000 a day margins. But it's hard to get into the details but if you want to call Chris and go over with him, be my guest.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Marshall Adkins with Raymond James. J. Adkins - Raymond James & Associates: Gene, why am I having a hard time visualizing you at the LSU Football Game?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

The President of LSU is Dr. John Lombardi, he's one of our Directors and he's a long-time friend of mine, and I was at the Tennessee game because I couldn't make the Alabama game. J. Adkins - Raymond James & Associates: Just trying to fill in some of the gaps on this. You kind of animated, Gene, that the $60 million revenue and the $12 million of earnings contribution, the 20 days maybe a little aggressive on a run rate. Can you help us with a run rate there kind of for a full quarter? And also, help us with the SG&A bump up? And more specifically, you mentioned the tag that you're going to free them up to spend more money. What is your CapEx for that subdivision?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Let me put it this way. I think we're prepared -- we have capital and assets to capital at pretty decent rates. And they were start of capital basically, so I don't want to get into specifics because it doesn't help me competitively. But basically, they have a whole bunch of decent return items which include a number of things including growth to being other stuff that's they are not really in yet. And obviously, somewhere that too and as long as we can -- quasi, like we do for rig. It's not exactly the same. If we have pretty good insurance that we can use the investment possibly, we'll make the investment and how much it will be, is the function of how many opportunities do we have and what evolves in the market. And also, we are not leaders in this everyone of the competitors that's been spending money ordering equipment doing churn tie ups and all that stuff in a while now. So we have a way to go. I think it's a function of the opportunities and right now, they look pretty decent. J. Adkins - Raymond James & Associates: Fair to say a meaningful bump up in what they were spending and since you're going to be increasing horsepower. Is that a fair conclusion?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Yes.

Dennis Smith

Management

Marshall, one thing you have to take into account when you talk quarterly, the fourth quarter is always really a tough seasonal quarter because they operate a lot in Northeast in the Bakken and talking to Dave earlier, just no one in the Bakken that they have roads shut down can't move today. So six of their 14 crews are in those kind of areas. So fourth quarter will be less.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

But, yes, and after when we invest, it's not going to be available in the fourth quarter. J. Adkins - Raymond James & Associates: And then the SG&A bump up, Denny, can you give some help there?

Dennis Smith

Management

I think it's mostly the addition of Sweezey... J. Adkins - Raymond James & Associates: It seems like maybe $30 million a quarter maybe, not too much?

Dennis Smith

Management

No, that's not even close. $15 million a quarter I think is our stand. We also had the restoration of some large pay cuts that management took.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Are you sure you're not too optimistic on the pressure pumping side?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I wish you would lower the barrier for us. You were saying this before we acquired them. Now they have the capital to get there. I'm not certainly, there are risk, all that stuff, all those conditions, but I don't think it's crazy.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

None of you have the business in-house for a month, you've had several meetings with the management and your international people. Where is the biggest opportunity to expand the business?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I think short-term, it's domestically. The medium term, it should be Canada where we control on the drilling opportunities. And originally, our stuff was that it would be international to fill out our suite of integrated services offering. But that's domestic is two things. One, on their own and two the synergies with our entities. Likely next we'll look at Canada and we're continuing to looking at international, but if we get a deal in most or something like that, we could use it. But actually -- anyway, that's the answer.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Imagine Canada and Mexico be the easiest places to expand, but the timing in Canada, you mentioned Canadian oils in your press release. Can you expand a little bit on what you see the Canadian opportunity to be like and how it differs from the U.S.?

Dennis Smith

Management

Yes. I would say the oil shales so far in the gas shales, we haven't gotten some oil in Canada which we do in the States. And they have the improvement in the Bakken in one or two places. And I think the big difference overall is the geology in the British Columbia shale is really exciting and sexy. They really remove from market and the development factor in credible enormous. So maybe somebody like Quicksilver can look to do it or DOG or Apachi [ph]. But we can't have to do it. I think there is some of the differences.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

What about some of the mature oils in Canada and doing a more unconventional applications. Is that an opportunity for you larger rigs and is also an opportunity for stimulation in pressure pumping or is it too far off?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Not to my knowledge yet. We haven't kind of real sense of knowledgeable look at frac-ing up. We're looking at other stuff out there but -- I think I told you, we know that the we enforced 45,000 super prime acres right in the heart of the best in Canada. We're trying to sell that and retain our ability to provide services.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Gene, can you explain the tremendous difference in profitability right now in pressure pumping stimulations relative to the kind of rather lackluster, although improving performance in Well Servicing? We'd imagine that with the direction going more towards oil that we'd see a sort of momentum.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I agree with you. I think that the frac-ing supply demand is uniquely tightened now as far as I can tell. And that's because of the shale, the evolution of frac-ing in shales is kind of new and unique and the whole damn thing is what, three years old or something. And now you hear 35 fracs per well, 20 fracs. They're getting to be more intensive. And as a backlog now. So while there are risks for supply demand for that is uniquely tight. And obviously, you get payouts that are proportionate and consistent with supertight by demand compared to what it was a year ago. And that is in the case in Well Servicing, but I think that your point is right that persistent $80-plus crude price and good relations and good performances is going to do a better. I mean, next year, we're projecting like a hockey stick. And I think they can do it, we'll see. But right now, we still have no tightness really, super tightness in Well-Servicing rigs.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

It seems like an illogical disconnect...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

It's how it is. And we have $80 of it for a while.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Just finally, Gene, you gave your guidance on 2011 international relative to this year but in 2012 sort of have the last really high-performing jack-up roll over early on, and if you assume that it rolls down to something more in line with the age and the profile of that units, you're probably looking at the $40 million headwind early on in...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Yes, I think from the jack-ups.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

But in 2012 it's less than 2011, do you feel that domestically...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

It's probably 185 now or something and it's probably go 120 or something.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Assuming that if it goes somewhat lower than that, do you think you could, is it enough momentum in the rest of the business to have 2012 be at least and growth here?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Yes, I think so. Let me put it this way. Sooner or later, if you look at the future's growth for crude for a pretty deep market, and of course, the big guys don't play it, pretty indicative of what the market says the price is going to be and they're going to be pretty strong. And I think I do want to go into the peak discussion. But I think it's clear to me that it's going to be higher and more expensive incrementally to get more oil and the pricing is going to be better and going to be more rig intensive. And as I said in the presentation, things like Papua New Guinea are going to be in the picture. I don't even know when. Whether without he P&L do you think.

R. Wood

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Algeria, the eight rigs there, seven of them are locked up in 2012.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

With new prospects there.

R. Wood

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

Additional prospects and additional interest that Gene referred to in terms of...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Specifically, we have a little bit of an edge and availability of 3,000 hostile rigs just Middle East and not Africa, including Iraq. In fact, even in Iraq, what the deal is we're having to invest money there and if you appreciate the money over 10 years or 15 years, it's okay. But we really working for three years just to get the incremental investment back, which is unfortunately the situation in Saudi now. Even in Iraq, we have a high prospect of the jack-ups that's decent margins, not the typical.

Ole Slorer - Morgan Stanley

Analyst · Ole Slorer with Morgan Stanley

What's the probability, are you closing one of these big divestitures this quarter?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I think I'll be disappointed. Let me put it this way. My own probability assessment is in 90% that we have one of them, and all probability, Colombia with deals firm, if not closed, by the end of the year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Arun Jayaram with Credit Suisse. Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG: Gene, I want to talk to you a little bit about obviously what you can tell us on the sequential improvement in Sweezey? It looks like on a revenue basis, on an implied basis, the revenues were up by a mid 40% kind of percentage a quarter-on-quarter. So I just want to understand how you generated that type of sequential growth? And on an implication basis, you're generating about $3 million per day in revenue, if you look at the last 20 days. So that implies that in 2011, you may be able to do $1.1 billion in revenue. So I just want to make sure I understand this component a little bit as we think about the earnings power of Sweezey in 2011.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I only look at the whole year. Next year, I'm worried about what we do quarter by quarter. I'd say, they went from probably breaking even in the same calendar year, so maybe $280 to $300 approximates which has on it by itself has a margin probably 40% or something. So that market pricing has improved pretty dramatically and I guarantee the pace of improvement won't continue and there's a risk of the whole thing. I mean if we can stay where we are at now and kind of get some of it locked in more than a well frac-to-frac contract, that's what they're planning to do, and I think the only comment that what's the potential is are not crazy. Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG: So a potential of a little over $1 billion seems achievable if we can't continue at the same kind of run rate?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

What is that give you in terms of gross margin income? I don't know. Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG: If we assume 20% kind of EBIT margins, it would be consistent with that a little bit over $200 million.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Yes, there are risks to it. But I think it's fair to hold us to that standard. Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG: Gene, I just want to get over expectations. You said for the E&P asset sales, you're comfortable with your thoughts. Is that still $1 billion on a pretax basis for both of those sales? Is that still what you're thinking?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Yes, sir. Arun Jayaram - Crédit Suisse AG: My final comment or question is regarding the three jack-ups that roll over the next few months. What are your expectations are? Are your expectations that you'll be able to keep the rigs working but just at lower day rates, and your confidence in the ability to maintain utilization on those rigs?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I think that's it. I think we can't figure out of the margins, but expected to work.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Tillery with Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering & Co. Securities, Inc.: I wondered if you could talk a little bit about packaging your Rig business with the pressure pumping offering? I just want to add a few color on what's going on.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Obviously, I would guess calibrated by the way combining pulling through whatever is scarce. You try to package with something that's not as easily marketed. So I wouldn't say we've been having enormous success with that. But we're saying if we can do it -- if we can get an incremental rig or anything else, with a relatively scarce frac-ing availability, we'll do it. I wouldn't say it's super significant yet. Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering & Co. Securities, Inc.: My second question is just on the Nabors' Lower 48 Land business. You mentioned in the press release leading edge rates well above the average rates you're realizing. Can you give us a feel for kind of normalizing for the asset class mix, how much headroom, leading edges about what the average rates we should be like?

R. Wood

Analyst · Jeff Tillery with Tudor, Pickering, Holt

Again, we're still seeing in the new bill opportunity day rates in excess of 15. Some of the existing assets was starting to push, again, dependent on the market, we're starting to see some improvement in the legacy rigs. I can't tell you exactly what percentage we're converging, but we are seeing some improvement on those numbers results. Jeff Tillery - Tudor, Pickering & Co. Securities, Inc.: My last question is just on the three international jack-ups. The one you're throwing this quarter and then it comes the first one in the spring next year. Is their work lined up for those? I'm curious is the utilization risk on top of the day rate rollovers? Just wanted a little color on that.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

We don't think so. I'm pretty confident that they're going to renew.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Kurt Hallead with RBC Capital Markets.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets Corporation

Analyst · Kurt Hallead with RBC Capital Markets

Gene, I take that if you are bearish on pressure pumping, you wouldn't have bought superior when you did, right?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Right. The other thing is they tend to be lucky to get the smart.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets Corporation

Analyst · Kurt Hallead with RBC Capital Markets

From a synergy standpoint, it seems like you guys made a lot of headway in a very short period of time with Superior. So kudos to you guys and I'm assuming that was mainly on kind of a lot of the cost front. When you think through the revenue opportunities, on a basin-by-basin standpoint, one of the areas that I think you would agree sticks out is the Bakken, right? You have a big market share there. I don't think that Superior Well Services necessarily does. Two questions. How far is the Bakken, where do you see the 11 new synergy opportunities? And then secondly, can you give us some general sense as to how we can tie back the number of frac crews needed per kind of rigs running?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I think, generally speaking, the hot areas which are the Bakken, the Eagle Ford and the Marcellus are where the opportunities apply for both drilling, not only drilling, not only drilling, drilling works over hand of Bakken.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets Corporation

Analyst · Kurt Hallead with RBC Capital Markets

I'm just trying to get a sense if we tie in to and connect the dots here between the number of rigs running and try to determine how many frac crews that might...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I guess the rule of thumb that I had is you need a frac crews for three rigs, roughly.

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets Corporation

Analyst · Kurt Hallead with RBC Capital Markets

That's pretty much basin. It doesn't matter what base in your end if you kind of look at that or is that Nabor specific.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I'm sure it does but my rule is not [indiscernible].

Kurt Hallead - RBC Capital Markets Corporation

Analyst · Kurt Hallead with RBC Capital Markets

And then, I just wonder if you might be able to give us some general sense, you have number of different discussions with E&P and so on. So where is your bias here? You think that the oil rig count will definitively more than offset natural gas. Obviously, you've been had some very good success in this business over a long period of time. What your gut instinct tell you?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I got instinct that gas price goes much lower, that balance is at greater risk. I don't know what it was today. It was like $3.30 or something. $3.29, I mean that's close. The ratio between cash and oil and prices on a BTU basis. That's long gone history. But the long-term average was about 10:1. And now, it's 25:1, something like that. Nobody ever asked me, but I'll assume you asked me my position is that a number of things happen over a period of time that are unexpected. And if you look at what's likely to happen like maybe the E&P doing something uncool or Obama realizing this gas is not as where were at or any number of things, but I think the spread is multiple times more likely to contract than expands. So maybe in our business you got to be optimistic, but I think the odds are also -- the other thing I've always been is I've never been involved in a situation where everybody's betting the same way and they make money. But I'm still not personally buying in gas futures.

Operator

Operator

And our final question is from the line of Roger Read with Natixis Bleichroeder.

Roger Read - Natixis Bleichroeder LLC

Analyst · Roger Read with Natixis Bleichroeder

Just a quick question, I guess, along on the international side because a lot of the other stuff has been hit. If you look for and I understand what's happening with international jack-ups. But if you look at the operations you have now, let's assume may be a little recovery in Mexico and some progress in other international markets. Do you believe that the international segment has the potential to surprise you next year or is it just given the contract terms, timing, et cetera, that really is just going to be will not...

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Right now, I know I'm always subjected to price, but I'd be very surprised if international makes a big headway next year. I'm willing.

Roger Read - Natixis Bleichroeder LLC

Analyst · Roger Read with Natixis Bleichroeder

And if you could, where will it come from?

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Well, it has to be a place where -- there's a new deployment. It's not going to impact next year very much.

Roger Read - Natixis Bleichroeder LLC

Analyst · Roger Read with Natixis Bleichroeder

Right, I guess it's more about where rigs rattle.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

We have to be where were at. We have Algeria, you have Mexico. But Mexico will likely -- Mexico has been sooner or later, but later not sooner, I think this PEMEX situation is unrelated to the overall problem the government good and all that stuff. But it still an unresolved problem and it doesn't look like it's going to be in short-term results. But that's what we have to be is there in Saudi...

Dennis Smith

Management

We're 70% of the ratings. We'll contract 2011. So we have a good data and substantial number, protected contracts. And as Gene mentioned, that the markets that have the multiple rigs whether existing to PEMEX, extra rigs offer that potential, but there's lots of delay.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

I think you can bet on Nabors without betting that it's going to recover internationally next year.

Dennis Smith

Management

Camille, that will wind up the call. I just would like to thank everybody for participating. And If you don't get your questions answered, feel free to call us anytime. Camille, I'll hand it back to you.

Eugene Isenberg

Management

Thanks for joining us.