David Ciesinski
Analyst · Ryan Bell from Consumer Edge Research
Sure. Ryan, we haven't given guidance traditionally. And given the circumstances of all the complexities surrounding the pandemic, we certainly don't see -- believe this is the time to start. But maybe what we can do is just sort of provide you with a little insight on how we're thinking about the business on a go-forward basis. So as you nicely pointed out, We expect to see the first thing, this reversal in terms of channels, right? We expect to see pretty strong growth coming out of our Foodservice business as consumers return back to normal. And we expect to see some element of a pullback on our retail business for the very same reasons. Now the X factor that we have in that equation is that we do have a lot of new items that we've rolled out, namely Chick-fil-A sauces that'll be out on a national basis and then Buffalo Wild Wings which we're going to be expanding as well. And if you think about it, this next year, fiscal year '22 will be a full year for all intents and purposes of both of those products. They're pretty close to a full year. That should give us a nice tailwind on the retail business. So what we expect to see happen generally is the ability to continue to post positive comps on our retail business despite this pullback. Now there'll be modest growth net-net, but we expect to be able to post growth. And then obviously, given the softer comps in Foodservice, we expect to see some continued growth as well. So I think compared to others in the industry, we feel fortunate in that our portfolio allows us to continue to deliver sequential growth as we've sort of weathered the pandemic and now as we come out of the pandemic. On the cost side of the ledger, it's most -- a much harder sort of thing to call right now. As you've heard from some of the others on the call, and I'm sure other companies that you're tracking, Ryan, there's just a lot of cross winds that are out there right now, right? So first, close to home for us, we have this shift in mix of the 2 channels. As our Foodservice business grows and our retail business pulls back, that's a negative shift in mix. Now our retail business, given the new items, will help [indiscernible] that somewhat. We expect to see significant inflation. I mean we're looking at inflation that's clearly in the mid-single digits, driven by soybean, corn, wheat, corrugate, flexible packaging as well as transportation. That's going to be weighing on the period now to counter that, another cross wind. We have pricing activities. We have pricing activities in Foodservice that are mark-to-market based on inflation. And then we have our own pricing intentions that are laid out we talked about here on the call for our retail business. We expect to see a bit of a boost coming from the fact that we did or we have announced that we're going to be stopping the hero payments going out to our teammates. That will be after 14 months, I believe, that we had those in place. But now that the country is fully vaccinated, we feel like there's an opportunity to do that. So there's a mix of different things that are going on in the space, but it sort of netted all out. We like where we stand. We see the opportunity for sequential growth. We think it's going to be healthy growth across both elements of our portfolio. And we feel like there is inflation, but we have plans in place to manage it, right? So we're going to continue to work our playbook. And if you go back and you look at it, we have a strong innovation process that we use to drive new items, whether it's with a licensing partner or a core brand. We have a really, really terrific commodity and risk management process that's been in place now about 3 years that gives us both visibility and the ability to hedge on increases. We have a great operations management process that helps us manage our cost within our facilities and create fuel to invest back in the business or drop to the bottom line. And just an experienced leadership team that's really, we've talked a lot about the teammates, sort of writ large. I probably haven't talked enough about the leadership team here in the segments, Foodservice and retail, the supply chain team, the innovation team, strategy, just Tom and our CFO, that have really bound together through this to just help navigate the company through these times. So as you kind of look forward on the horizon, and that's really where we're keeping our eyes fixed rather than just on the front of the ship per se. We like where we stand and we see the opportunity for sequential growth as we come out of the pandemic. Period by period, we're going to have to wait and see how some of these things shake out, but that's how we view it.