Mark C. Capone - Myriad Genetics, Inc.
Management
Yeah. Thanks, Tycho. A couple things as we think about Hereditary Cancer guidance for fiscal 2016. Obviously, the three parameters at play here are what's happening in market growth, what's occurring in share and price. So let me touch on the three of those so that you can get some insight into our thinking there. First, from a market growth perspective, one of the things that we saw in 2015 was a year-over-year market growth that was lower than what we had historically seen for the hereditary cancer market. Now, that's not a surprise because the baseline was 2014 which was impacted by some significant tailwinds associated with celebrity publicity. So it probably isn't a total surprise that we saw year-over-year growth in the market, at least to the best that we can determine, slowed in 2015. Now, long term, we continue to believe that this market is underpenetrated, that there is substantial opportunity for growth, but given the year-over-year lower growth in 2015, we thought it was prudent to take that into consideration in our 2016 guidance and contemplate at least in this guidance some market growth lower than what we would have historically seen or what we would hopefully see even further into the future. The second part, as it relates to share, as you can see from our slides and commentary, that we have, to the best of our ability, seen shares stabilize over the last half of the year, but despite that, again, we believe it's prudent to assume that we will have some incremental market share decline throughout fiscal 2016, and so our guidance contemplates some additional share decline throughout the year. Lastly, from a pricing perspective, we can't obviously get into details of pricing in a competitive market. Maybe a couple of things I can point to that you can reflect upon. First is that in fiscal 2015 you saw that – throughout the year we saw increasing gross margins and that was without any additional reimbursement in the rest of our portfolio. And so that gives you some, I think, understanding of pricing stability throughout that transition with myRisk. The second thing I'll point to is that our guidance implies an operating margin of 25% to 26% in fiscal 2016, and that's up over 200 basis points compared to fiscal 2015. So again, I think that points to some understanding of pricing stability that has been factored into our guidance numbers. And that becomes more apparent as we negotiate long-term contracts and fix in pricing for a longer period of time. So I think those are really the puts and takes on the three parameters – market growth, market share and market price, and why we're guiding to Hereditary Cancer revenues that are about 1% growth year-over-year for fiscal 2016.