Dave Banyard
Analyst · JP Morgan
Thanks, Kevin. We're moving to Slide 7. I'm going to spend a few minutes going through our Distribution Segment transformation in further detail. The initiative is focused on the three key areas for improvement. . First, we're undertaking a shift in our go-to-market. As part of that shift, we're expanding our strategic accounts teams. We're building inside sales team in order to offload some of the smaller accounts to a different channel. To better align the selling function with the changes in buying behavior that we're seeing in the market, we're going to segment our sales organization differently, also include the consolidation of larger customer teams in the field and taking a more individual market segment approach on the national scale. Also, we're going to expand and enhance our e-commerce platform, utilizing an improved digital storefront and taking advantage of the economies of scale available through coordination efforts with other online marketplaces. Our second area of focus involves simplifying several aspects of the business. By utilizing 80/20 to improve both our throughput and efficiencies, we intend to improve our contribution margin. Some of the steps being taken to achieve this include the simplification of our pricing structure as well as additional enhancement to capture value. As you may remember, we completed a project on our pricing structure about 1.5 year ago. We're now expanding the pricing process to other parts of our customer base and focusing on additional areas of price leakage. For example, we had to create new policies around freight and are introducing minimum order quantities. Finally, as part of this initiative, we're consolidating parts of our supply base to rationalize and simplify our product offering. We realized that we've gotten far too complex in our product offering and operations. These steps are intended to streamline this process, leading to a higher overall contribution margin. Our third area of focus is to implement logistics and overhead efficiency programs, as we change our go-to-market strategy. Our operations have to adapt to the changing demand of our customers in terms of their product needs, quantities and delivery schedules, thus we need to optimize our distribution network and cost structure to align with the changes we're marking across the front-end of the business. In summary, we anticipate initiatives are estimated to deliver $5 million to $7 million in annualized benefits starting in 2020. We also anticipate at this time that we will spend approximately $1 million to $2 million in 2019 in additional expenses to execute these initiatives once finalized. We begin – we began our initial work in the back half of 2018, as we spent $1.4 million in the fourth quarter getting things started. We estimate the net benefits in 2019 could be between $1 million and $2 million for the full year, with most of these benefits coming towards the tail end of the year. Our goal with these initiatives is to improve our EBITDA margin in this segment to 10% by the end of 2020. Next slide, I'm going to spend some time reviewing our 2019 outlook for the year. First, I want to highlight that we are initiating earnings guidance for 2019. Given the uncertainty in the markets in the world today, we believe it's important to put more information in the hands of investors, so we're aiming to do that this year with annual earnings guidance. I'll get to that in more detail momentarily. From a market perspective, for the full year, we're looking for sales to be flat, primarily due to headwinds in our agriculture and RV end markets. Across the rest of our business, we have solid initiatives in place and end market momentum in specific instances, but we expect to offset these headwinds. I'm going to some details on what those are, as we review each of the end markets. Starting at the top with the consumer market, we expect annual revenue to be up in the mid-single digit range, driven by growth from the new product launch. The new spout launch in our Scepter business took place in the latter part of Q4 and is available in the market today. We anticipate our food and beverage market to be down in the mid-teens range, with much of this weakness to be front end loaded in the first half of the year due to a difficult comp year-over-year in our seed box business. As a reminder, the seed season covers Q4 and Q1. We had a very strong season from Q4 2017 to Q1 2018, and that's a result of – as a result of pent-up demand from several years of lower volume due to farm incomes and industry consolidation. As we analyze that season here in Q1 of 2019, we'll see a drop off, which we also experienced a bit in the fourth quarter of 2018. The volume today is more normalized, with a monetary risks associated with the tariffs being negotiated with other countries. We currently have very low visibility in the next year season because of this. And we're also seeing competitive pressure in this business for the first time, as customers have further adopted box packaging over alternatives. In other parts of the food and beverage market, we're seeing some growth, including increased sales to food processing customers. A small piece of that market has been good – some good commercial execution and we expect this to continue. In the vehicle market, we're forecasting revenues to be down mid-single digits. The biggest factor here is a continued decline in the RV market. The weakness we've seen here is being experienced broadly across the market with industry shipments down 20% towards the end of Q4, and we're seeing 40% down so far in Q1. We do have some offsets to that with the automotive side of our business, so end market demand levels are slowing there as well, because of our business in the automotive market is more directly tied to the number of model year changes in a given year, we can still gain even if the individual car sales are down in a given year. There are, of course, limits to this – to these. These cycles are ultimately tied together over time, but our current expectations are that sales to automotive customers will improve in 2019. We anticipate industrial market to be up low-single digits, with some recent larger orders with our large industrial distributors with generally steady pace of business in that area. In auto aftermarket, we anticipate sales to increase in the low to mid-single digits. We're seeing some increases at the start of the year, continuing from the growth we experienced in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we're focusing top line improvement throughout the year as we finalize and execute the strategic initiatives we reviewed earlier. In summary, we're anticipating sales for the year to be flat overall, with adjusted operating margins expected to grow. We estimate diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $0.75 to $0.85. While we're not going to provided quarterly guidance, it's important to highlight that due to difficult comps that I underlined already, we will start the year slower than last year. We believe that the other end market factors, I mentioned, will help us as we move through the year. One final note, we have a higher number of fully diluted shares this year compared to a year-ago. Turning to Slide 9. This is a list of all of our guidance items for 2019, I'm not going to go through each individually. But again, we're forecasting sales to be flat, and estimating that diluted earnings per share will be in the range of $0.75 to $0.85 per share. And lastly, we anticipate spending $10 million in capital during the year. Finally, switching to Slide 10[ph], You'll see a brief review of our long-term financial targets, with 2018 results included, as 2018 was a check-in point for us. In summary, we're about one year behind in a couple of metrics, but we've also overdelivered on a couple of others. So I'll give ourselves a mixed review. Specifically, our adjusted operating margin was 7.1% in 2018, behind the 8% target that we were aiming for. We had a clear path to – the 8%, but the underperformance in our Distribution Segment caused us to fall short of that goal. As I outlined earlier, we're finalizing our plans to address this issue, and actions are underway to move us closer to this target in 2019. On cash and working capital, we overdelivered with very strong performance on both of those metrics, contributing to our ability to pay down debt to be below two time debt-to-adjusted EBITDA. On adjusted EBITDA, we came up short at $66 million versus our $7 million target. Similar to our operating margin miss, the underperformance here relative to our goal was due to the results from our Distribution segment. We remain focused on our 2020 targets and executing plans to make these a reality. With that, we'll open the line to questions.