Dave Banyard
Analyst · JPMorgan. Tyler, your line is open
Thanks, Matteo. Moving to Slide 7, overview of the 2018 outlook for the full year. We are holding our previous outlook of sales growth low- to mid-single digits for the full year. I'm going to go through each of our five macro segments, and this is a full-year review of what we expect our participation in each of these markets to be from a top-line perspective. Starting at the top with consumer, we're expecting for the full year to have low-single digit growth. As I mentioned earlier, we're anticipating market share gains, and that's primarily through the launch of new innovative products in the second half of the year. But we do expect that to be offset by some unusual volume that we have last year due to the large number of hurricanes that came through North America. In food and beverage, we’re expecting high-single-digit growth. We've had a very strong start to the year in Ag already and very good traction in our food processing business. I will say here that there is some upside potential as we look forward. We have put in a fairly conservative view for the second half for our Ag business, and that's primarily because of the activity around trade tariffs. We're not – it's unclear right now what that impact might be on the Ag market. And so, while we do see good indicators for demand from our customer base, our current forecast that we have in here doesn't have that in it. And so, we think there's potential upside should those trade tariffs not have the impact that we're anticipating there. Moving down to the vehicle market, we're expecting high-single-digit growth there for the full year. We had had a very strong RV market year-to-date. We did see that market slow in the second quarter, particularly towards the end. We did see our customers take their customary July shutdown period, which they did not do last year. So, in the middle part of the year here, that market has slowed. But we do see looking forward that the slowing is really more of a steady demand. It's stopped growing at the double digit growth rate that it had over the past few years. So, we still see steady demand there but it is slower in terms of a growth rate year-over-year moving forward. Conversely, we're seeing increased demand and strong backlog coming into the third quarter in the automotive OEM market which to be honest was a bit of a surprise to us. And so, we're a little more bullish on that as we look forward. And so we're confident here in the high single digit for the full year growth in the vehicle segment. In the industrial market, we're anticipating our full year to be flat. The large majority of that is that we're expecting our volume to be lower due to the product simplification that we've been undergoing as part of our 80/20 initiatives over the past year. We expect that to be completed through the end of the third quarter, early fourth quarter. We do see some growth potential here going into the second half of the year from some of the initiatives that I highlighted earlier in terms of additional adjacent market segments in some of our businesses. Again, that's some upside that we see in this market. We don't have a lot of that baked into our outlook. As we get those wins, we think that that gives us an opportunity to over deliver for the rest of the year. In the auto aftermarket, we expect to be down low single digits. We expect it to be flat in the second quarter and we were not. And so we're meeting our expectations here. We do expect to grow in the second half of the year but we don't expect that that sales growth will be enough to overcome the declines that we had in the first half. So, overall, we're expecting a good year low to mid-single digit growth in the top line. Now, before we turn it over to questions, I do want to address, I briefly alluded to the trade situation and I wanted to address that in a little more detail here at the end. First and foremost, we're primarily a domestic company. And so, both on the commercial side as well as on the supply chain side, we deal mainly with U.S. and some – in aggregate, North American customers and suppliers. So for the most part, we're not directly impacted by the trade situation in the tariffs. We do, however, have some implications, some of the commercial ones I've highlighted already particularly around the ag market. But I also want to address specifically the cost impacts that we're seeing already and that we anticipate going into 2019. I think the best way to look at this is to look at the impact and what we anticipate to be the impact in 2019. A lot of what we're seeing, we've either been able to push out of 2018 or already taken action on in this year. But as we look forward, we won't be able to delay some of that into 2019. So, overall, though, again, as I said, we're mainly a domestic company, so not a very large impact on our enterprise, but we estimate that all in, the current tariff situations as scripted will have an impact of less than 1.5% of material inflation on our total material cost. So, that's less than 1.5% of our material cost inflationary impact in 2019 for the full year. Now, about three quarters of that relates to steel, and that's both domestic supply chain as well as imported steel. We're seeing price increases already in that. But that's normal course of business for us. And given our experience that we've had so far year-to-date, we feel that and actually already have in a number of cases counteracted that with price. And so, material cost inflation of that variety of raw materials like steel is a normal part of our business. It's not a huge impact as you can tell from the percentages, and we feel that we're going to be able to cover that and, as I said in many cases, already have covered that with price. The remaining 25% of the impact from tariffs are purchase goods that come – that are imported. We believe we have the opportunity for most of that to offset it with alternate supply chain. And that's one of the benefits we have of being of the scale that we are in the business and particularly in the Distribution business. We have multiple suppliers for a wide variety of our products, and we feel that we can cover any - the majority of the tariffs that we see through alternate supply chain. For those that we can’t that are direct sourced from China and only have singles or only have the ability to source from China, we would anticipate that – similar to steel that we will be able to cover that with price. And the reason we feel that way is that because of the fact that if there was an alternative supplier, we would have already found it. So, we feel we have a very good coverage of the supply chain in our businesses and that we – where we have the ability to find alternate supply, we will do it. And in some cases, we have an advantage there, because we have a broader supply chain than some of our competitors. Where we don't feel we can – are able to do that, we feel that our competitors have the same problems we do and that price will be available to everyone and be able to be pushed through to the market. So, just want to give everyone a summary of where we feel we are with tariffs. Again, I don't think it's going to be a very large impact and we feel it's one that we can cover. So with that, we had a very nice quarter. We're very pleased with our performance, and we're happy to turn it over to any questions that any of you may have.