Scott Hall
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thanks, Martie. Before opening the call up for questions, I will discuss pricing and inflation, end markets, our large capital projects and the i2O acquisition and our updated annual guidance. As Martie mentioned, raw material inflation accelerated during the third quarter, impacting our gross margins. We continue to take actions to improve price realization with additional price increases and close management of our supply chain. During the third quarter, we announced our third price increase this year across many of our product lines. We were pleased to see the benefits from our previous pricing actions lead to a sequential improvement in net price realization in the quarter. However, due to the magnitude of the inflationary increases, especially raw materials, the lag between pricing actions and realization and the level of orders, the price/cost impact was more challenging this quarter compared with the second quarter. The sharp recovery in demand, coupled with supply constraints have led to record backlogs for our products, and extended the normal lag between the timing of inflation and realization of our pricing actions. As a result of these market conditions, we do not expect to see an improved price cost relationship until fiscal 2022. However, as we have seen in the past, when we look over the full cycle of the inflationary price movements, we expect to more than cover the inflationary expenses. Moving on to our end markets, we saw improvement in our end markets during the quarter as municipal spending continues to recover from the pandemic and residential construction benefits from strong demand for single-family homes. The third quarter was very strong with June starts at a $1.6 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Due to a number of factors, including supply constraints and building cost inflation, we expect the growth in housing starts to moderate over the coming quarters as we lap the surge in starts we experienced in our fiscal fourth quarter last year. We believe that the supply challenges that have helped push out new lot development and construction into 2022, support a normalized level of housing starts. Our view on the municipal end market is more favorable than last quarter, primarily due to a pickup in the repair and replacement portion of the market. While the project portion of business is slowly improving, we are still seeing some delays attributable to the pandemic, causing uncertainty around funding and travel. We remain hopeful that an infrastructure bill, including water investments, will be passed as certain utilities could benefit depending on their projects and financial status. While it will take time for the federal dollars to reach the municipalities, it should increase the overall pace of infrastructure work especially for large projects. Also importantly, it can help shine the light on the need for the repair and replacement of aging infrastructure. Moving on to our large capital projects, despite the challenging operating environment, we remain focused on driving operational excellence and executing our large capital projects. We continue to make progress on the construction of our new brass foundry in Decatur, Illinois. Due to the pandemic impact on inflation in the supply chain, we anticipate the cost to complete the project will be higher than projected. As a reminder, at the outset of the pandemic, we deferred some of the capital expenditures associated with the foundry capital project as we assess the impact on the global economy. We still expect that this project will be completed by the end of fiscal 2023 and will ramp up during fiscal 2024. We expect capital spending to remain elevated in fiscal 2022 and will decrease to less than 4% of consolidated net sales after 2023. In summary, due to the ongoing inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges, we expect that the 3 large capital projects will account for approximately $140 million of total spending. We continue to expect these projects to drive approximately $30 million of annualized incremental gross profit after all are complete and at full run-rate. These projects will help accelerate product development, drive additional operational efficiencies, reduce duplicative expenses, increased revenue and aid us in advancing our sustainability initiatives. We were pleased to complete the acquisition of i2O this quarter, which enhances and expands our technology product offerings for pressure management solutions. i2O offers pressure data loggers, advanced pressure valve controllers and network analytics to reduce water loss by providing solutions that enable clients to monitor, analyze and control water networks to reduce leakage, reduce energy consumption and improve supply. Today, i2O delivers pressure management solutions to more than 100 water companies in over 45 countries, largely in Europe and Asia. We are excited about bringing their product solutions and deep technology expertise into our portfolio, and introducing them to the North American market. Pressure data is a critical component to detecting pressure transients, which are rapid burst that can cause catastrophic pipe failures. This information works synergistically with our Echologics acoustic leak technology and will allow us to provide a more complete pipe network leak detection solution to customers. Additionally, i2O’s pressure valve controllers work with our singer pressure control valves. We expect to offer products and solutions to North American customers in this quarter. We closed the acquisition in mid-June, and their results are part of our Technology segment. We see the clear need for more digitally enabled products and services to allow municipalities to manage their operations remotely as they prepare for accelerating challenges with the expected retirements due to an aging workforce. Digital water spending is expected to grow at high single-digit annual growth rate with network and asset management solutions growing in the double-digits. Our vision is for our Sentryx software platform to allow utilities to monitor, control and optimize their water distribution networks. With Sentryx, customers can identify and prioritize leaks, measure and control network pressures assess water quality, view metering data, remotely flush water lines and utilize data analytics to manage their network assets remotely. The acquisition of i2O further enhances our Sentryx software platform and positions Mueller as the leader in network monitoring and solutions with the ability to accelerate our software offerings and provide products that support the resiliency and sustainability needs of our customers. As we expand the number of digitally enabled infrastructure products in our portfolio, our Sentryx platform is well positioned to become an essential tool for water utilities to manage their distribution networks. Now moving on to our updated expectations for 2021, as mentioned earlier, consolidated net sales growth in the third quarter exceeded our expectations and reached a record level. Due to the high level of demand coming out of the pandemic and supply constraints, we believe that distributors have not been able to increase inventories to pre-pandemic levels. This dynamic has resulted in all-time high backlog for infrastructure-related products, with orders continuing strong through July. Due to another strong quarter this year, we are again increasing our 2021 annual guidance for the third consecutive time. Our expectations for consolidated net sales growth for the year, is now 14% to 16% versus previous guidance of 8% to 10% growth. Our expectations for adjusted EBITDA growth for the year, is now between 13% and 15% as compared to our previous guidance of 9% to 12% growth. Our updated expectations include anticipated end market growth and ongoing challenges with the relationship between pricing and inflation. We also continue to expect to increase cash balances in the fourth quarter. Finally, we remain focused on keeping our employees safe, protecting our communities, delivering exceptional products and support to our customers and increasing cash flow. We have made progress on our key strategies this year to accelerate product development, drive operational execution, execute our large capital projects and deliver technology-enabled products. We will continue to execute our strategic priorities to become a world-class water technologies company, bringing solutions to critical water infrastructure. With our ongoing focus on sustainability, we plan to minimize our water and energy footprints and deliver smart products that are more efficient for our customers and safer for the environment. With healthy end market tailwinds and from the aging infrastructure and accelerating technology adoption, we believe that we have strong momentum going into 2022. And with that, operator, please open this call for questions.