Gregory E. Hyland
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets
Thanks, Evan. I'll now elaborate on our 2013 third quarter performance and end markets and provide an outlook for our fourth quarter. I'll begin with Mueller Co. Mueller Co.'s results came in about as we expected with top line year-over-year growth of 9.1% and growth across all of our product lines. Net sales of our metering and leak detection products and services grew 67% year-over-year. However, sales were down in Canada by $3 million year-over-year. We believe the flooding in Western Canada coupled with the construction worker strike in Quebec contributed to the decline. As we mentioned on our last call, we believe distributor inventory levels were generally greater entering the third quarter of this year than they were last year. This increase was due to several factors, primarily the timing of our January price increase and weather-related impact on construction in some parts of the country. We believe that our Mueller distributors reduced inventories throughout the quarter, and their inventories were lower at the end of the third quarter than they were at the end of the second quarter and generally flat year-over-year. We believe the distributors met some of the end market demand during the third quarter by pulling down inventory. During the quarter, domestic unit shipments of our valves were down slightly under 5%, hydrants were down slightly more than 6% and brass products were up almost 9%. This was expected since our distributors ended the quarter with higher inventories of valves and hydrants, again as a result of the January price increase. However, domestic orders for these products and units were all up: valves more than 8%, hydrants more than 5% and brass products more than 20%. Mueller Co. adjusted operating margins expanded by 180 basis points during the quarter as we continue to benefit from increased volumes, higher sales prices and operating leverage. Margins in the third quarter were the highest we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2010. We believe that most of the growth in our base Mueller Co. business in the quarter came from new residential construction. We think that municipal spending is mixed and in total, was up only slightly on a year-over-year basis. Before discussing our outlook for the fourth quarter, I'll provide an overview of some of the macro drivers in our end markets. While the recently reported macroeconomic data has mix -- has remained mixed, the macro factors that impact our markets appear to be holding their own and for the most part remain positive. While state and local seasonally adjusted tax receipts continue to increase and hit new highs, budgets in many areas remain stressed by health care costs and underfunded retirement plans. On the municipal bond front, with interest rates rising sharply recently, total issuances have slowed and are now showing a 9% decline through the first 6 months of calendar 2013 compared to the prior year period. New money issuances are barely positive at 1.4%. However, the CPI for water and sewage rates increased by an annualized rate of 5% in June year-over-year. Single-family housing starts, which significantly impact demand for our products, averaged about 600,000 on an annualized basis for the 9 months through June compared to about 500,000 last year, up 20%. According to a June survey by Ivy Zelman & Associates, demand for land and lots hit a record high for their survey. With strong activity especially in the Central and West regions although the pace of improvement has slowed slightly. Anvil also had a solid quarter with adjusted operating margin expanding by 170 basis points to 12.3%. In particular, we saw a nice pickup in demand for our mechanical products in certain regions of the country, which were driven -- which was driven by commercial construction. This is the highest margin that we have achieved since the first quarter of 2009. Turning now to our outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect Mueller Co.'s fourth quarter net sales to increase year-over-year. However, we expect the year-over-year growth rate to be less in the fourth quarter than it was in the third quarter. We expect only modest year-over-year growth in our metering product line because we have passed the 1-year anniversary of a significant meter supply agreement. Additionally, as we have said, this product line is more dependent on specific projects and we have seen a delay on certain meter projects, which may push orders and shipments into fiscal 2014. All in all, we expect total Mueller Co. net sales in the fourth quarter to be slightly less than in the third quarter's, with a year-over-year growth rate in the mid-single digits. We expect Mueller Co.'s adjusted operating margin to improve substantially and for fourth quarter adjusted operating income to improve year-over-year across all of its key product categories. Mueller Co.'s adjusted operating income is also expected to decline slightly sequentially, which is consistent with the seasonality of the business. We previously said that we expected our metering and leak detection products and services to be profitable for the full year based on the backlog and the expected timing of being awarded additional contracts. Today, we believe that certain contracts which we had expected to be awarded and shipped in 2013 may be awarded in 2013, but shipments would be delayed into fiscal 2014. As a result, today, we do not think these products and services will be profitable in 2013. However, we have seen significant improvement this year. Year-to-date through the third quarter, we reduced year-over-year operating losses by approximately $9 million. In addition, we recently introduced new technologies in fixed leak detection during the third quarter. These are in the pilot stage and we are very bullish about their potential. All in all for the fourth quarter, we expect a richer conversion margin than what we saw in the third quarter due primarily to expected growth in our base domestic valve, hydrant and brass products. At Anvil, we expect net sales to be both slightly higher than in the third quarter and to increase year-over-year. The increase in volume should also result in higher year-over-year adjusted operating income. For the company as a whole, we believe that 2013 fourth quarter net sales will increase year-over-year, primarily due to volume increases at both Mueller Co. and Anvil. We expect a solid increase in adjusted operating income year-over-year and to see an improvement in our adjusted operating margin. Raw material costs continue to decline. We expect material costs for all of 2013 will be slightly favorable year-over-year as we should benefit from lower raw material costs partially offset by higher costs of purchase component. Other key variables for 2013 include corporate expenses are estimated to be $32 million to $33 million; depreciation and amortization is estimated to be $59 million to $60 million; and interest expense is estimated to be approximately $52 million. Our adjusted effective income tax rate should be about 40% for the full year. Capital expenditures should be between $32 million and $34 million. For the full year, we expect free cash flow to be stronger than 2012. Most of our improved free cash flow generation should come from increased income from operations. Additionally, we expect income tax payments and pension contributions to be minimal this year. We are pleased with our third quarter results, especially the margin expansion at Mueller Co. and Anvil. Although our metering and leak detection products and services will not likely be profitable in 2013, we believe they will be profitable soon. They continue to make progress in the marketplace, and we are excited about the potential of our new fixed leak detection products and the overall opportunities in the smart meter and leak detection markets. With that, I will open this call for your questions.