Rob McEwen
Analyst · Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is now open
Thank you, Sylvain. Thank you, Andrew. Last year was a year of building, as well 2018 and, I suspect 2019, as we move forward towards our goal of qualifying for inclusion in the S&P 500. I'd like now like to talk about gold for a moment. And as many of you know I've been optimistic about gold for quite a while. And there are several reasons why I think now is a very opportune time to be either establishing the position, if you don't have one, or adding to one. First of all, as an asset class gold is extremely under-owned. Let me illustrate for a moment. If we look at the public markets in America and add up the market capitalizations of all the publicly listed equities in America, we get a total of $31 trillion. Now the S&P 500 represents 85% of that $31 trillion, which works out to just under $25 trillion. It's important to understand that there is only one gold producer in the S&P 500, and that is Newmont. And its market capitalization is $21 billion. So, if you take the $21 billion and divide it by just the S&P 500’s total Cap – that equals eight one hundredth of 1%. Now if you said you wanted a 1% waiting in your portfolio, or save the S&P 500 you would need to 11 additional Newmonts in order to get to 1%. There is a gentleman out there that's done very well in the market, Ray Dalio, who runs Bridgewater Associates. In last August he felt, because of the geopolitical issues and economic issues around the world, it would be prudent to add some gold to your portfolio and he used a number of 5% to 10% of your portfolio allocated to gold. And that would probably be mixed between gold bullion, gold coins and gold equity. So, should we see a movement even to 1% weighting in gold there would be a tsunami coming at the market. So why might people want to do that? I mean, gold doesn't seem that exciting right now, it is up in some currencies. If you're in America it's down 30% from a tie since September 2011. But if you go to another part of the world, say, you go to Tokyo, and bought gold in yen back in 2011 at the high, you'd only be down 2% rather than 30% here, if you're sitting anywhere in America. So part of the world is saying gold isn't performing badly against the market. And we saw something like this back in 2000 – between 2001 and 2005, gold was moving higher in dollar terms, but not in most of the other major currencies. And after 2005 it started moving in the other major currencies in the world. And then gold was moving up in all those currencies, the gold market became alive and the gold shares started running quite strongly. And I think we're going to see that again. So it's under owned, it's also very cheap relative to equities today. In fact, it’s at a 45-year low - there's a ratio, if you take that Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and divide it by the S&P 500 Index, this is the lowest point it's been in 46 years. So, for some people, it might be viewed we're at near or just past the bottom of the gold mark. But I’d say the downside risk is small. Collaborating that statement is [that] in the past 75 years there have been eight bear markets in the gold share market as measured by the Barron's Gold Mining Index. And the last one was the longest that we've seen and one of the deepest. It ended on January 2016. During that period there have been also seven bull markets in gold and you might argue you don’t feel we are in a bull market, but this new one started back in January 2016. And there were six of them before, 75% of those them went up 600% from the low to the high. The one we're in right now is a little less than it’s double. So you [can] say there's a 75% probability that we could have a three-fold move from where we are today. And just looking at if you wanted to move like that and you felt you wanted exposure to gold, you might want to consider McEwen Mining, as in a very advantageous position. According to Bloomberg we have a beta of 2.7, meaning that our shares should move 2.7 times more than gold. And if you had a three times move on that, you could see an eight-fold increase in our share price in that type of market scenario. Something else I wanted you to think about - when we had the crash about two weeks ago, it wasn’t probably a crash, it was a 5% correction in the market, but a lot of people got excited about that, but we seem to continue on. But there were a few derivatives out there, that I think you should take note of. One was run by Credit Suisse it was an exchange traded note; the other was run by Nomura. [For] both of those funds their sponsors have said they're closing those funds. Credit Suisse situation lost 95% of its value in that one day. It lost $1.5 billion and that was on a 5% move in the market. It was a low volatility instrument. And I think we look at the market and we don't consider the risk that’s sitting out there in the derivative side and I think it behooves everyone to be looking at that and taking some protection. It may be the start of something, it may be just an event that's not important, but it's certainly something to look at because the derivatives are huge multiples above the size of the stock market and any other asset class in the world. So, with that said, I'd like to move now to the question and answers. We have a couple of questions that have come in online and we'd like to start with those and we’ll alternate between the questions online and the questions on the phone. So, Andrew, would you like to deal with the first question?
A –Andrew Elinesky: Sure, thank you Rob the first question came from Jason Cooper. The question was: for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 to the year ended December 31, line under cash flows from operating activities entitled cash paid to suppliers and employees went from $59.9 million to $95.9 million. This represents $36 million increase in cash spent for the quarter which was offset by an increase in cash generated from gold and silver sales, coupled with an increase in inventory. And the question is, can we provide some insight as to why cash paid to suppliers, employees increased so much quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis? Jason, thank you for the question. Firstly, the biggest movement was due to the addition of Black Fox. So, it was the first quarter including their costs for the year, and obviously it was only for the first quarter or for the first quarter of the year as well. So you see a sizable increase when you compare quarter-on-quarter and not so sizable increase year-on-year. So that was an addition of about $15 million in payments made to suppliers and employees. We also have the year-to-date spend at Los Azules earlier on in the year, which is about $8 million. And then we had our increase in Mexican cost for the full year of about $7 million and same with Gold Bar, for about $3 million and corporate also for another $3 million, and that adds up to the difference of the $36 million difference year-on-year. You also asked about, there's additional question about viewing our inventory management versus our cash burn. As Jason said, he believes you have a history of accumulating inventory when you believe the price is too low. And, Jason, you are correct with our excess cash balance, particularly in December we saw that the price of gold dropped and it got below the level that we were comfortable selling at. So we held off on our sales, as you can see in our sales numbers, and that's particularly was minimal or zero activity in December. And what you're going to see in the first quarter for this year is, as the gold price did shoot up over $1,300, as it's been up to $1,350 we have been getting caught up on those sales. So you're going to see an increase level of sales versus production in Q1 of 2018 as we do that catch up. Second question from Jason is about what does the initial CapEx plan for 2018 look like? Gold Bar obviously is the largest amount of CapEx that we have planned for the year which is about $71 million for the full year. Black Fox and Timmins, we are budgeting currently $5 million for our development and projects there. We also have additional projects that we're continuing to evaluate and that's not included in that $5 million. And then Mexico, our capital is dropping to under $1 million for the year as we wind down our activities there. There’s a third question from Jason, which is what was your impression of the initial Black Fox exploration project and when might we get an update on additional exploration? Perhaps, may I pass this one over to Rob to give you his initial thoughts on it and answer about our potential for updates during the year.