Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you for standing by. My name is Freda, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Murphy USA's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Q&A Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Christian Pikul, Please go ahead.

Hey. Thanks, Freda. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us. With me are Malynda K. West, Chief Executive Officer and Donald R. Smith, Chief Financial Officer. I know you have all probably accessed our earnings release and management commentary from the website last night, we will go ahead and kick off the Q and A session. Please limit yourself to 1 question and a follow-up, and then I will get back in the queue to make sure we get to everybody. Please also keep in mind that some of the comments made during this call, including the Q&A portion will be considered forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 2000. As such, no assurances can be given that these events will occur or that the projections will be attained. A variety of factors exist that may cause actual results to differ. For further discussion of risk factors, please see the latest Murphy USA forms 10-K, Q, 8-K, and other recent SEC filings. Murphy USA takes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements. During today's call, we may also provide certain performance measures that do not conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or GAAP We have provided schedules to reconcile those non-GAAP measures with reported results on a GAAP-based, as part of our earnings press release which can be found on the Investors section of our website. With that, let's go ahead and open up the call. I will turn it back over to Freda.

Your first question from the line of Jacob Aiken-Phillips with Melius Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hey. Hey. Good morning, everyone. So just on the unit pipeline, you have 18 stores through today and 55 under construction Does the 45 openings this year still hold And how many construction sites that open this year versus the first and second quarters of 2027? And then also, will 2027 be back half way?

Thanks for your question, Jacob.

Yes. We are really pleased to have built a pipeline where we have 18 stores open year to date, 55, as you under construction. And also a firm plan to start 15 to 20 between now and the end of January. So our guidance still holds, we will be around that 45 to 50, probably a look. Obviously, a little bit better than 45, we hope. As we end the year. Very difficult to predict what stores are gonna open December 31, for example, versus January 2 because we have so many in flight right now. But that is why we wanted to give you comfort in this under construction because, obviously, you know, whatever does not open in December is going to open, very soon within the New Year. Starting our 2027 pipeline off in a good direction. So we are still firm that we are. Have built our pipeline sufficient now to be able to carry out 50 stores a year. Not just for this year, but also next year, and maybe even do better than that by the time we get to 2028. I would also estimate that by 2028, our hope is to get our pipeline more ratable. So instead of opening everything kind of at the end of the year, first to the year, we are more ratable throughout the year. So too soon to tell how lumpy the pipeline is going to be in 2027. Obviously, we are gonna have a slug of stores that are going to open early, but then we would also expect to have a nice complement of stores going behind that in the second, third, and fourth quarters as well.

Super helpful. And then just on the, like, White Castle part, any early reads or customer behavior that you are willing to disclose?

Yeah. that is a great question too, Jacob. And 1 we are actually getting. And just to clarify for our everyone, we actually refer to that program internally as MARS. So Murphy Automated Restaurant Solutions. We view this as a test to skill program. So currently, we have more than 100 units in the market today. And are deliberately scaling the program across new markets and formats Our goal, though, really is threefold. it is to build evidence around customer demand, fit to our operating model and also the store level economics as we deploy this out. So at this point, it is simply too early to comment on any scalable performance potential, although we will say the initial results that we have seen so far are encouraging. But that is really all that we really want to say at this time. So, hopefully, in future calls, we will have line of sight to some more detail to be able to provide you.

Your next question from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Alright. Thank you, and good morning. I just had a quick question on fuel volumes. You mentioned that you are confident in your SS fuel volume guidance of -1% to -3% But then looking at year to date, your volumes are essentially flat. And I know you have a tougher comp in Q4, but it does sort of suggests you will maybe be at the, I guess, high end of that range. So hoping Mindy, you could talk about, you know, how we should think about that, maybe what you are seeing from a fuel volume dynamic and any consumer behavior at the pump? Thank you.

Yeah. I would say that our business is Advantage. As we enter this more elevated price environment for longer because that is going to make customers more price sensitive For the third quarter, I believe we have prices above $4 and 10 out of our 27 states. But I think the longer that continues, the more price fatigue there is going to be on our customer, the more budget fatigue there is going to be. So we would expect gallon growth from that. And also, we are continuing to take share. What our third quarter results tell us is that we took share on both a total gallon basis, but also a same store basis as we were a +6% versus Opus. We were slightly positive when Opus would tell us that we were going to do--to be flat. So we know that higher absolute prices absolutely increase price sensitivity. But, also, we still need that right environment and price wise to be able to create that separation to drive incremental value. We saw that a little bit for 1/3 of this quarter, being in a high priced environment combined with a favorable falloff, and we saw the behavior that we would expect. So for the fourth quarter, too soon to know what that is gonna look like, but I would say that we are encouraged by volumes, you know, so far in the month of October being at 100% of the prior year because that is despite some hurricane activity. Which really took a large percentage of our stores down for several days. So you know, optimistic about what we see, and we are also optimistic as we go into 2027 because we think this heightened volatility and these higher prices are gonna continue as we enter into next year. Yeah. That kind of does make sense.

And if I could ask maybe just a follow-up on sticking with fuel because on that point, looking at your fuel margins in the quarter, could you maybe just touch on a little bit more on the composition of total fuel contribution. What I mean by that is, you know, it is looking at the retail fuel margins seem to be a little bit more under pressure. So maybe talk about that. And then I know a lot of the fuel supply and RIN strength was due to uncontrollable factors, but how should we think about modeling the fuel supply segment, I guess, for Q4 and maybe year, Mindy, based on what you just said. Thank you.

Bonnie, I am actually glad I am not an analyst and do not actually have to model it because I appreciate there is a lot of moving parts. there is a lot of nuances happen out there, and every 1 of those absolutely can make a difference in our results. But I will try to help you out as much as I can. So as I unpack the third quarter, the retail margin it may have looked soft to you, but, actually, what we saw in July was a run up in price. And so that is not gonna be an environment favorable to margins. So actually, margin. I mean, prices creeped up for almost all of the quarter, which is not a great backdrop for earning margins. So the fact that we were within a penny of the prior year, which had a falling price environment, is telling us that structural component that we talk about is still there. Causing pressure on those marginal retailers. It really was not until the last half of September where we had the elevated prices combined with a falloff that we were able to create that separation and drive both margin and volume. And then when I look at the fuel supply results, again, it was an upward sloping environment, so we had an impact, on the uncontrollables, as we call them, especially during the month of July. And then from a controllable standpoint, product supply was still very tight. Not as tight as it was in the shock. Maybe, the first shock that we saw in the second quarter. So the controllables were lower in the third quarter versus the second quarter because the second quarter was dealing with that initial shock. But we still see a tight supply condition going into the fourth quarter. We do not expect that to alleviate Do not know what is gonna happen with the pricing environment. But wanna remind people if we do see a falloff, yes, that will cause an effect. And what we determine are uncontrollable, but that should also have a very positive effect on the retail side of the margin with expanded margin and then hopefully also a chance to create separation and drive volume so that total fuel contribution would be very healthy. In that type of environment. But appreciate, Bonnie, that there is lots of moving parts I do not know how to tell you to model it, but look forward to unpacking the results for the fourth quarter when we are talking in January. So, hopefully, that helps. A little bit at least.

Your next question from the line of Tom Palmer with JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe I could just follow-up on Bonnie's question on fuel supply. And kind of clarify. On the controllable side, how do. Because they were bucketed and controllable. RIN prices, how do they impact your fuel profit? Should we think about elevated RIN prices as being a more enduring tailwind? Versus, like, say, the 3¢ or so outlook you have talked about in the past? Or is there is it more about like the volatility of RINs? Just any help there.

The volatility of RINs can have an impact that is temporary, but largely rent prices are a pass through because the prices of RINs that we are getting was embedded in the cost that we, incurred to get that supply in the first place. So, yes, if RIN prices rise really rapidly or fall really that may not take a. And that may not have an impact immediately within the cost of our supply But over the course of a few days, that is gonna normalize out. And so we really do not concern ourselves with what the price of the RIN is. Because it is strictly a pass through. And that 2 to 3¢ that we talk about, that is what we would expect to earn during a normalized environment where that uncontrollable piece is more or less flat. That is the 2 to 3¢ that we believe that we can earn from the controllable side of the business. But I will say in a tight supply environment like we are in now, that is where our fuel advantages are to the most effect because we have all this optionality around how we acquire supplies so we can acquire it cheaper than we could if we just bought it at the rack. So we would expect our product supply and wholesale business to earn over the $0.02 to $0.03 in a tight supply environment. And then, obviously, this uncontrollable piece will have an impact pertaining to the direction of the prices.

Okay. Thank you for that. And I just wanted to clarify, I know there was some language about this, but when we are looking at the stepped up OpEx in the fourth quarter, I know a lot of it is kind of referring to lapse, but there is also maybe some deferral of certain things that are falling into Q4. To what extent should we start thinking about any level of heightened OpEx growth next year Or is that not the case?

Well, we are always going to have a focus on controlling our cost. So the elevated. We were actually down this quarter. We are expecting a little bit of a catch up in the next quarter, but also we are overlapping some initiatives that we deliberately put in place last year with regard to maintenance. So as we all overlap those cost savings that we already got in the fourth quarter of last year, that is part of what is driving the modest increase But, again, for guidance purposes, we still expect to end the year even below our very low guidance that we that we have already put out there. And as we enter next year, our intent is going to be to sustain the advantages that we already have and create some new ones as well. But too early to guide specifically as to what that is going to look like.

Your next question from the line of Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on fuel margins. And you mentioned retail margins better than you would have thought. And a rising price environment. Could you maybe provide a little bit of context around that competitively and what is allowing that to happen? And then as part of that, know, as you think about, you know, maybe eventually, right, the situation with RINs stabilizing, curious as to what your thoughts are on where margins could settle out versus the $0.28 earned in 2024 and 2025 on the retail side and maybe how independent breakevens are informing that.

Yeah. When we talk about a rising price environment not being conducive to margin, it is because you are constantly having to catch up for the price increases that you are incurring. So the market continues to have to restore. And in a choppy market, especially 1 that we saw during this quarter, it was very difficult to get ahead of it. And so we were always trying to restore the market versus the prior period where you had, you know, lower absolute prices, but a falloff in prices that sustain for a longer period of time. What we are also seeing is that for instance, when we take, share of market, which Opus would indicate that we are, that is just putting more pressure on those marginal retailers who their only way to make up for that lost volume is to make up for it in margin. So that is continuing to support that structural margin element that we talked about that maybe be maybe will be half a penny a year. Donald't know. But that certainly is seeming to hold up as our results this quarter would verify based on our retail margin being, you know, very close to what we reported last year in a completely different environment. As we look forward, we actually expect this heightened tight supply elevated volatility to carry on into next year. Donald't know when the war is going to end, but even after it does, the normalization effect is gonna be really complicated because we are going to have infrastructure impacts, refinery maintenance that is been postponed, supply chain recovery, strategic reserves have to be replenished. And as long as supplies remain tight, we are going to expect continued volatility which actually is an opportunity for the Murphy USA business because we are built for this environment, and our capabilities allow us to capitalize on that continued volatility. So we will be able to capitalize on it on the product supply side, but that pressure that we are also putting on that marginal retailer is going to allow margins to elevate for all in the business So we will be able to capture benefits on both sides of the fuel business and with all these stores that we have in the pipeline, they are going to open next year. They are going to open into a favorable environment also, which will increase our earnings power for 2027 and beyond.

Maybe just as a follow-up from a competition standpoint, can you just talk about some of the differences that you are seeing in some of the markets that have been a little bit more difficult from a volume perspective. Whether you are seeing any easing there? Or are there any other changes that we should note in, you know, in this regard?

Yeah. No real changes. There continue to be areas of pressure, but pressure is just gonna naturally shift across the chain over time. As markets are simply all at different stages of maturity and competitive intensity. I know that Colorado and Florida have been 2 states, that we have mentioned with material competitive pressure. But just like we discussed in this year's investor deck, Colorado is a great example of what happens when a market is starting to normalize. Volumes are still under pressure, and I can tell you that they still are. But CPG is more than offsetting that gallon decline, which is driving total contribution up for the market and for players like us. So look, we are still investing in desirable markets where people wanna grow. that is fine because we know over time, that competition is gonna put additional pressure again on that marginal retailer supporting the structural margin. So, yes, we had volume pressure in certain states, Colorado and Florida were 2 of those, but 7 out of our top 10 actually showed same store growth, which is the benefit of us having a broader footprint. So competitive intensity continues. I would not say it is any more or any less. I would just say it. The pockets of intensity tend to move over time and evolve, but in a very predictable way.

Your next question from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess, Mindy, first, I want to switch back to the stores. I think you guys have opened up a little over 40 over the trailing 12 months. Can you maybe talk a little bit how those have opened or performed in the first year? And I think you guys were debating maybe a little bit different store prototypes or having a second prototype or something like that. So just any update there on kind of that aspect of the store growth pipeline over the next couple of years?

Yeah. Sure. Thanks for the question, Bobby. Yeah. I would say the latest class the bill class is ramping up good. Maybe a little bit slower on the fuel side because you remember we opened a lot at the end of the year, so they ramped in first to all the winter storms. Impacting our network. Then they ramped into all this price increase, so that was not a great, environment to create separation and volume. But they are but they are ramping despite what the environment that they face. When we look at the bill class from the year before, what we talked about in 2025 was we were seeing those bill classes return 15% fully ramped up after tax. That was in the trough environment. We would expect that to be even better when we look at them this year. But, you know, we are building really strong assets to last for 30 years, And as you know, our issue really has not been performance and still is not. Our issue has been pace of store openings. Because the math would tell you, had we opened 50 stores per year from 2021 to 2024, our EBITDA last year actually would have exceeded $1.1 billion. But, obviously, we did not do that. We opened 18, 35, 22, and 29 stores, and that really created a tax on our business not allowing us to show incremental EBITDA improvement in what was the worst possible fuel macro environment last year. So that is why we are excited now to have our pipeline built up because we can sustain that pace that we have talked about for the last several years. And we know that is gonna be able to drive ratable EBITDA improvement for us regardless of the macro. So last year's stores are ramping in a challenged environment, but they are coming along fine. This year's build class is gonna do just fine as well. We are continuing to build, great sites and great locations. But, also, as the second part to your question, we are definitely looking at new formats, not completely, abandoning the model. You know, the 2.8 thousand-square-foot is still gonna have its place in our portfolio, but we are also looking at. Are there things that we can do that are maybe slightly smaller, slightly larger, or just new and different from what we have done? We have also reimagined our raze and rebuild programs too where it may not be a raze and rebuild that we do. We may do a heavy refresh, heavy remodel, do things like that. So just having a little more optionality in our model than what we have had before. But too soon to really talk about specifics as to what those will be.

Okay. that is helpful. Makes sense. And then maybe switching gears just over to the inside store business in particular, nicotine. Obviously, lapping the Zen promo from last year, but just curious, what are you hearing from that category about the promo environment going into 2027? And I believe with some of the FDA changes, vapes might have been hitting the floors late in Q3 or maybe early Q4. So just anything there? On some of the changes there that were taking place?

Yeah. Sure. Look. It still continues to be very promotional, the whole category, as consumers are still really in a test and try environment. They are not necessarily really loyal to any 1 thing, and we are seeing a lot of customer sets from the oral nicotine in particular. We have seen people switching from their traditional, method. We have seen people trying it in conjunction with their traditional. We are also seeing new nicotine customers that are new to us buying from us instead of someone else. So vendors are still gonna be very promotional around this category and make investments with us. Because we offer a high ROI on that investment. Then you also mentioned, the vape and other things that may be entering. Legal vape is an incremental opportunity. We do have 1 brand in our stores today. We have additional products expected in 2027. So it is still limited right now, but it will become more meaningful as more products are allowed to be available. And it is been an important category historically, so we know there is opportunity as volume moves back into the legal channel. So we definitely expect that to happen, and we will leverage our supply chain, our capabilities, the investments that we have made to be among the first to be able to offer that to our customers.

Your next question from the line of Pooran Sharma with Stephens. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe wanted to--hey. Good morning. Maybe wanted to just start out with, with the broader consumer Wanted to kind of get your view on maybe the different cohorts I know you mainly index to kinda lower income consumers, but in this higher gasoline price environment, are you seeing consumers trading down from premium and mid grade to regular And more broadly, are you seeing consumers trading down from higher priced competitors to Murphy in general. Are you meaning strictly on the fuel side or also inside the store? Kind of on both, really.

Okay. Perfect. Let's do both. So your specific question is to RUL. Yes. RUL actually for the quarter was up almost 2.5%. Was actually up double that in the month of September. As you are right, we are seeing customers. Both our customers trading down from premium and mid grade, but also customers trading in from other competitors because of our low price. Inside the store, we would also characterize our customers as resilient despite the ongoing pressure we are calling them selective but resilient. As we know, our customers have both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend. We have seen them continue to spend on those nondiscretionary purchases despite the rising fuel costs. But their purchases are remaining disciplined. They are not deteriorating. And to give you a proof point, we have a static panel of over 2.2 million of our Murphy Drive Rewards customers Their total spend is up $50 year-over-year with us. And that is driven by the higher fuel spend. Right? But the merch spend is also remaining static, actually up slightly. So our customers are making the trade off but they are doing it in other areas of their household budget to absorb that higher fuel spend. And we continue to resonate because of our value proposition, our everyday low price position, we stand for value, so we are helping to support them even as their household budgets are remaining constrained. So maybe a little bit of pressure on the nondiscretionary purchases, But for those discretionary purchases in our store, even inside the store, those are very much tied to routine everyday things. And customers are still finding room in their wallets to be able to, come in our stores and purchase those.

Great. Appreciate that color. And just for my follow-up, wanted to ask about volumes. I know a few folks have asked about it already. But just, you know, October volumes last year were about 2% lower. So I think it was a little bit easier comp You finished Q4 last year around flattish volumes, which implies harder comps in November and December, as Bonnie had pointed out. But as you mentioned, historically, a sustained decline in pricing is that type of environment where you can kinda create some separation And so as I am I am I am looking to Q4, even though you have harder comps, in November and December, If RBOB holds here, or kinda drops further, do you think it would be justified to think that you could see positive same store gallon growth in November and December this year?

We could pour them. You know, I think October the fact that we are flat despite the hurricane impacting our stores is significant because last year, while it was an easy comp, we did not have any hurricane activity at all. But from a pricing standpoint, yes, last year was a. An absolutely low price. But we did have a down in October. We had another down in the month of November. When we look at this October, we had an up. And then a down, and it remains to be seen what we are gonna have for the rest of the year. But if we continue to get sustained prices above $4, and if we can even rise a little bit from there so we can get more of our network above the $4 mark and our competitors way above that $4 mark. I think that is gonna make customers more price sensitive. And then if, obviously, if we could have a glide down, you know, in the second half of November that was on a sustained basis, not a choppy basis, that would certainly be an environment where even the despite the difficult comp, we might could improve. But really too soon to. In the crystal ball to be able to tell it is gonna happen for the rest of the year. Is it doable? Yes. But it would take the right set of conditions to make that happen.

The queue is now open for follow ups and additional questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your keypad ask a question. To withdraw your question, press 1 again. Your next question comes from Daniel Guglielmo with Capital 1 Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my Just 1 for me. You mentioned in an earlier answer that you expect the normalization effect to be complicated. And the team has so much experience in the industry. So I am just curious what do you look for when judging if we have reentered a normalized period?

Well, the spot to rack differential is gonna tell you 1, but the leading and indicators will be 1, does the war actually end? And does it actually end, or is it just talk that it will end? Finding out what is happening with the infrastructure overseas will be important. Refineries that have been running in North America full out for almost 2 years. Refineries are not designed to do that. They are gonna have to come down for maintenance. Do they have problems on the way up or not? How soon does the supply chain work its way out, and what really is the decrement to this overall supply chain that has to be filled. There will be some leading indicators for that, but those are not things that are gonna normalize within a week or 2. Those are things that are gonna take months. And that is why we feel confident at least at this point that even if the war actually ended today, we would still have lingering impact well into 2027. Which works to our advantage because of the optionality we have around the fuel chain. We are not dependent on 1 source of supply. We can get supply from a lot of places So if supply happens to be tight in 1 area, we are not dependent on any 1 area. That is the is why we are built for this environment, and our capabilities are worth a whole lot and our advantage is worth a whole lot. But those are the type of leading indicators that we would point to. But regardless of anything, you know, these things are gonna take months and months to work out.

Great. Thank you.

Your next question from the line of Bradley Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks so much. Mindy, a first 1 on QuickChek. Can you talk about its performance in the quarter and how you are thinking about its EBITDA going forward?

We do not break out the QuickChek EBITDA, but happy to talk about it. That business does continue to face pressure. It is a different business. Look. It is food forward, not fuel forward. It is a higher cost model to run because of that. It also has a very concentrated geographic footprint, so it does not have the benefit of stores everywhere where if you are experiencing competitive intensity in Colorado, we have all these other stores everywhere else that are that are doing just great. It is very concentrated geographically. So we are remaining focused on improving our merchandise performance through things like sharper pricing, right assortment, executing well on our food and beverage capability. We are also working on the cost side of our business, tightly aligning the labor and our operating cost to the actual customer demand that we are seeing. We are also implementing that, sales first model that we have on the Murphy USA side into the QuickChek side with the ability to upsell and better execute on promotions. But to be quite candid, we expect all the pressures that we have been seeing and are seeing to continue to persist in the near term, and that expectation, though, is reflected in the guidance that you have already seen for the full year. So no additional increment that. But that business does continue to face pressure.

I appreciate it. And then, obviously, the overall business on track for a great year here. So I hate to nitpick on the non nicotine same store sales. But as you look at that area, clearly, some challenges for the consumer Maybe can you speak to are you still seeing headwinds from Snap? And how big are those? And then anything interesting that you are seeing in the pipeline? Or that you are testing in stores, that might be helpful to drive some more excitement in that area? Thanks.

Yeah. that is a great question. And look, our non nicotine performance is primarily due to 2 specific categories, we have talked about before. it is beer, and it is lottery. Those are discretionary categories, obviously. Higher gas prices are not helping those at all. Lottery was the largest driver of our same store decline, but it is also comping from a year where we had a $1.8 billion Powerball. Beer similarly is also a headwind. We did see some moderation. the quarter. It does not mean it is positive. It just means it is not as bad as it was. But if you exclude lottery and beer, our nonnicotine same store margin was actually up 1% year-over-year. that is showing you that customers are still engaging in the key categories, pantry and beverage did really well. Snacks did really well. We are gaining share across our center store categories versus Nielsen, so that speaks to the strength of our value proposition. And, also, do not forget nicotine. We are continuing to drive results there. and take share across that broad portfolio. 2% of sales. And Snap is a currency, not a customer, so yet to be seen whether do those customers just come to our stores and buy those products like a Red Bull energy drink, for example, but pay with a different method. And then with regards to initiatives, look, we are continuing just to focus on the basics. You know? Our offer being in stock, priced right, promoted effectively, and leveraging our continually sophisticated MDR capabilities. So those are the things that we are doing to address, but the primary culprits are lottery and beer. And that is not just a Murphy specific headwind. that is an industry headwind, as you guys know.

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. We will now turn the call back to Mindy West for closing remarks.

Alright. Thanks, everyone. We are pleased with those results we have delivered so far this year. We are also even more confident in the underlying strength of our business. But we appreciate your continued interest in Murphy USA and look forward to updating you again next quarter.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.