Mindy West
Analyst · Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo
Yes. What I would tell you is volume uplift from higher prices takes time, and we're really too early in that cycle. Many markets were only in the mid-$3 range as they exited March. And historically, we really see pronounced shifts once prices stay elevated and particularly elevated above $4 for a sustained period. So in April, we are seeing volumes holding up well, roughly flat year-over-year. And as the longer the prices stay high, the more customers we attract, but that shift doesn't happen all at once. It's more a gradual build. And in fact, only 1/4 of our chain is sitting at or above the $4 level now. Importantly, though, for our Murphy Drive Rewards, we saw approximately 600,000 more loyalty sign-ups. That's the highest monthly total that we have seen since 2022. And we are viewing that as a really strong signal of those customers actively seeking value and choosing Murphy as part of their everyday routine. Also remember, though, that price-sensitive customers are only one factor that impacts volume. You can't discount the market dynamics in different geographies and different competitive intensities. So Colorado continued to see volume pressure because we're growing there. Everyone else is growing there, too. We are seeing some signs of market stabilization though as margins are now returning to a more new normal markets like Florida, we're still seeing highly competitive activity. So that's pressuring both volume and margin in that region. It's not a single market, but there are many markets in Florida that are still in a highly competitive phase as everyone is trying to attract their fair share of customers. But then we can look at Texas, which we would call a more mature market. And while there's still these new store opportunities in the market, the players are already well established, and so there's not as much volume and margin pressure in a state like that. And then when we look at the quarter, weather was also definitely a headwind. We would estimate that headwind, I think when we looked at it last year, it was roughly 2%. It's probably a bit more than that this year given the sheer number of closures that we had in the duration. But if you just say it was 2%, that was definitely a headwind that would have made our volumes for the quarter up versus down had those not occurred. And also, when we look at Opus and examine that versus our data, it would tell us that we're outperforming in all of our regions even with all those pressures. So I think the price sensitivity will come. It's just too early in the cycle as most of these -- all those price pressure really happened in March. Those customers have only had a paycheck or 2, a [ fill-up ] or 2. They haven't even received their credit card statements for those purchases yet. So it's just going to take some time.