Andrew Clyde
Analyst · JPMorgan, your line is open
Thank you, Mindy. Let me start with some color around the fuel environment and our performance there. For the first time since around 2007, 2008 macro demand for motor fuel in our markets grew by more than 2%. And for the quarter, we grew our total gallons by 3.5%. So we are growing market share in our core geographies. Per site gallons are within 0.7% of the prior year, largely reflecting the enhanced Walmart discount in the Q3 2014 comps. So we feel good about the overall volume performance of our network as it continues to grow. Unit margins were a strong $0.181 per gallon for the quarter. Year-to-date margins of $0.125 are tracking to last year and right in line with our long run target range of $0.12 to $0.13. We will go up against record Q4 comps for both volume and margin, so unless we see crude prices fall to below $40 a barrel, or something significant like that, I don't see a repeat of last year's Q4 finale. That said, the current quarter had started on the right path to end the year at 4.1 billion gallons on the lower end of our annual guidance. The product supply environment was not dissimilar to last year, as refineries ran at record high utilization rates, so there was plenty of products. There were a few periods of disruptions that open the arbs that we took advantage of that helped wholesale margins and the sharp fall-off in spot prices created some timing variances that impacted product supply. Q4 has started off much better, as refineries went into their turnaround season, which tightens supply and that helps our proprietary model. There is still a lot of inventory in the system, so the key to seeing additional Q4 volatility will be whether refineries experience hiccups coming out of their turnarounds or not. RINs provided a strong offset, as we sold 53 million RINs at $0.38 per RIN. We continue to see RIN values in the 30s; and at present, we anticipate they will stay in the current range going into 2016. We expect the contribution from product supply and wholesale to be below our annual guidance of $40 million to $60 million, but more than made up for by higher than expected RIN sale volume and prices. Turning to merchandise, performance was really outstanding. We grew same-store cigarette and tobacco margins by 4.6% on flat sales, which is quite positive in a world of declining carton units. Non-tobacco same-store margins grew 12.1% on a 7.5% increase in sales. This highlights the strength of our core network of stores. Including the impact of the new stores, total combined margin dollars grew 7.5% on an average per store basis, while total sales grew 1.1%. We expect to end the year at the high end of our guidance of $315 million to $325 million in merchandise gross margin. In the face of growing sales and larger stores, we continue to keep operating cost in check. Excluding credit card fees, per site operating costs increased by 0.7% in Q3, yet remained down 0.6% year-to-date, as we continue to achieve our target of beating inflation in this commodity business. While every company is seeking to grow their top line sales and margins, the key to do that efficiently and not let labor waste and other cost offset the gains. We believe our unique operating model, combined with the improvements, initiatives underway enable us to do that well and we still have a long runway to make further improvements. As discussed, the short-term SG&A increases are largely due to our ASAP project cost, which supports building the capabilities to sustain and grow these improvements. A couple of points on our investments - we expect to end the year around 70-plus sites, so right in line with our 60 to 80 store annual guidance. We plan to maintain this pace next year. We've completed the 300-store refresh program, and very early results look promising on both volume and merchandise uplift, as we provide a facelift on some of our oldest stores. We plan to continue this program in 2016 and we are working closely with Walmart to align our program with their own refresh program. We've started our first raze and rebuild site, and we have identified 10 stores for next year. We are working with closely with Walmart to establish the process for scaling that up further. I will close by addressing the question I know that is on your mind, which is, where do you stand with Walmart on future new site growth? As noted on the last call, we did not expect to have an outcome by this time, and we don't. We are in active discussions around our reinvestment plans for 2016 to improve our existing network and we look forward to beginning that work. We continue to believe that Murphy USA offers Walmart the best option to deliver a low-cost fuel offer to their customers on Supercenters that in turn generate sales uplift for them. My personal take away from their last analyst day was they are focused on reducing investment capital on low return businesses and driving traffic to their stores. We believe that we fit perfectly into that objective and that we're a proven, trusted partner to work with. I appreciate your patience as this plays out in the natural progression of complex discussions like this one. So with that, let me take this opportunity to thank our team of close to 10,000 employees who not only delivered this quarter's great results, but are working hard to enhance our capabilities to sustain and grow our business into the future. Operator, at this time, we are open for questions.