R. Andrew Clyde
Analyst · Gabelli & Company
Thanks, Mindy. Total fuel contribution was truly remarkable, reflecting a steep decline in crude and product prices. Our volume remained strong as we sold just over $1 billion in retail gallons this quarter, up 7.5% from last year. On an average per site basis, we sold 277,000 gallons in Q4, up 2.7%. For the full year, total volume increased 4.8% to 4 billion gallons and per site volumes increased 0.7% to 270,000 gallons. Retail margins more than doubled to $0.246 per gallon in the quarter, topping up the full year average to $0.158 per gallon versus $0.13 in 2013. Combined, retail fuel gross margin totaled $630 million for the year, an increase of 27% or $135 million. Product supply and wholesale margin dollars, excluding RINs, totaled negative $46 million for the quarter -- for the fourth quarter compared to income of $28 million in 2013. On an annual basis, we ended 2014 with $13.5 million margin dollars compared to $54 million last year. While the fundamental spot direct transfer price and our discretionary wholesale margin were positive for the quarter, the sharp decline in both product prices created a negative financial impact as both purchases are booked to inventory when physically received, which creates a negative lag effect. This effect moves in the other direction when product prices rise with the same magnitude. Even with this impact, the combined increase in fuel gross margin between retail and product supply and wholesale totaled over $103 million for the year. On top of this, we generated $93 million in contribution from RINs for the year, totaling 195 million RINs at an average price of $0.48. We sold 54 million RINs in the current quarter at an average price of $0.49. Our fuel team did a remarkable job of managing through the market environment and leveraging our fuel supply chain to optimize our total fuel contribution. Turning to merchandise. Our nontobacco categories continue to perform very well, showing increases in both margin dollars and sales. Total merchandise sales were $549 million for the quarter, up almost 3%. For the full year, merchandise sales were $2.16 billion, just up from last year. EBIT margins expanded to 14% in 2014 from 13.1% in 2013. Tobacco sales totaled $429 million in the fourth quarter, up 1% and averaged $114,000 per site, down 3.6%. Tobacco margin dollars grew 12.3% for the quarter to $49 million as unit margins expanded to 11.4% from 10.3%. On a yearly basis, tobacco sales were down 2.3% in total or 6% per site, while margin dollars grew to almost $8 million in total or 0.5% per site. While we continue to see the decline in overall cigarette units, improved pricing and execution on cigarettes, along with strong growth in smokeless and e-vapor products more than offset the headwinds for the full year. Nontobacco sales totaled $120.9 million for the quarter, up 10.7% and totaled $473 million for the year, up 9.6%. Per site sales were up 5.8% for the quarter and 5.4% for the full year. Gross margin dollars were up 9.8% for the quarter and up 11.1% for the year. In our larger formats, annual sales of dispensed beverage increased 17.8% and margins grew by 31.1%, while beer and wine sales grew for the year 8.2% and margins grew 22%. General merchandise grew 9.5% in sales and 13.7% in margins. These categories highlight the ongoing improvements in execution by our merchandising team and sales associates in our larger format stores. Across all our formats, packaged beverage sales grew 7.4% and margins grew 12.8% for the year. Similarly, salty snack sales and margins grew 13.1% and 13.3% respectively, while candy sales and margins grew 6.7% and 12.1%. These categories highlight the value of our unique promotions and the innovation with our fantastic supplier partners. We have another full year -- full calendar of great promotions for this year. We also continue to work hard to manage operating cost. Total site operating cost averaged $31,000 per site month in the fourth quarter compared to $30,000 last year. Excluding payment fees, operating cost per site increased 4.4% for the quarter due to higher maintenance expenses as we accelerated upgrades and repairs on our site to invest in our brand. However, for the full year, site operating expenses increased only 0.9% year-over-year, achieving our goal of beating inflation. We also improved on our existing top quartile safety record at our sites. Excellent performance continued at our Hereford ethanol plant. Our improvement projects at Hereford have resulted in higher annual throughput rates, higher yields and a reduction in direct cost. November and December yields were each 2.84 gallons per bushel, resulting in an annual yield improvement of 3%. The plant generated a record $20.1 million in net income for 2014 and $4.1 million for the quarter. We are very pleased with Hereford's ongoing performance and it is establishing a solid track record that will position it well for a future sale. Organic growth from new store builds continue to ramp up. We exited 2014 with 1,263 stores, adding 60 new locations in a year, hitting the middle of our guidance range. Of these, 43 stores were 1,200 square foot or larger format. We have opened 2 new stores since year-end and another 6 are under construction. In summary, we are extremely pleased with the overall performance for the quarter and for the full year. We would now like to provide some guidance for 2015. As in the past, we will give annual guidance and not be providing quarter-by-quarter numbers. We will seek to provide a sense of how the current quarter is performing during our earnings calls covering the just-ended quarter, where we have good insights to add some additional transparency and seek to avoid surprises. Our approach reflects the volatility in our business and the fact that major swings in commodity prices can occur sooner or later or not at all in one year versus another. Starting with retail fuel performance. We expect to grow total annual fuel gallons by 3% to 8% and look to sell between 4.1 billion and 4.3 billion retail gallons based on our new site additions, expected level of promotions and other key assumptions. This translates to a range of 267,000 to 273,000 gallons per site month. As we have discussed on almost every call, the volatility of spot crude and product prices are major factor in our retail fuel margins. While we continue to expect our long run margin to average $0.12 to $0.13 per gallon, there are years like 2008 and 2014, where we performed well outside that range. History has also shown that in a year following a steep decline in crude and product prices, retail margins are typically compressed when prices rebound. We can't predict the level or nature of what the rebound will look like, but we believe it is a question of when, not if. Therefore, our guidance for retail margins for 2015 extends the lower end of our range to $0.09 per gallon to be conservative, giving a range of $0.09 to $0.13 per gallon. We expect our product line wholesale activities to contribute an additional $0.01 to $0.15 to gallon or $40 million to $60 million in additional gross margin dollars. If prices recover fully, we would also expect product supply and wholesale to be positively impacted by the reverse of the lag effect in both product purchases we experienced in 2014. For RINs, we've also -- we have also have a wide range of guidance from $0.10 to $0.15 per RIN. While RIN prices averaged $0.40 -- $0.48 in 2014, we will remain reasonably conservative in our planning as it is difficult to determine the EPA's timing on standards, which is needed to have additional clarity. We're targeting to grow total merchandise sales to $2.25 billion to $2.3 billion, an increase of 4% to 6% over last year, while growing total merchandise gross margin to $315 million to $325 million, an increase of 4% to 8%. We plan to hold store operating cost under the rate of inflation. Total SG&A costs are expected to run around $120 million to $125 million. These figures include initiatives to refresh our sites and to improve our business systems and processes, which will pay off in future years. We expect to ramp up station building activity to between 60 and 80 sites in 2015, the majority being Murphy USA stores of the 1,200 square foot format. We project to spend $230 million to $270 million in capital, of which $180 million to $220 million would be for retail growth, including raised rebuild sites, a site refresh program and land purchases for future year growth. Approximately $26 million will be spent for sustaining retail projects. The remainder will be spent at the terminal Hereford and at corporate for maintenance and for margin or cost improvement projects. When you take all of this guidance together, there are 2 key points I hope you take away. First, despite the more bearish but realistic view of fuel margins in 2015, if you look across any period of time, the highs and lows offset each other and the business is sustaining a long run margin of $0.12 to $0.13 per gallon. Second, independent of what fuel margins do in the short run, our business is getting stronger every quarter, as we grow new sites, improve our merchandise mix, sustain our cost leadership position and strengthen our capabilities and our fuel supply chain. This strategy provides the foundation for reinvesting in our business and long-term shareholder growth. This concludes my prepared remarks. In closing, I would like to thank our entire team of almost 9,500 employees who helped make 2014 a huge success. We are reporting 2 weeks earlier this year, and I want to especially thank our finance and accounting team for making that happen. At this point, we would like to open up the discussion for questions.