Steven Appleton
Analyst · Global Crown Capital
Let me first throw out there that there are a number of reasons that we are doing NAND, so despite the fact that there is capacity coming on NAND and we are a part of that, getting into that market because of the growth rate of that market is clearly one piece of it. We have a couple of others, and I will come back to those in a second. In terms of whether we think there is too much NAND capacity or not enough NAND capacity for ’07, I guess I would add the comment that I do not know if anyone can predict it, frankly, because we are in such a high-priced elasticity correlation on NAND right now for growing density and lowering cost, it would be tough for anyone to predict. Clearly there is going to be more capacity that comes into the market, but frankly, we have never said, and if you have listened to us for a while now, we have never said that we thought NAND would not be volatile, or it would not have either great expansions or periods of time where you have pretty heavy price declines because of over-supply. We think in fact that will occur. Having said that though, we do not think it is going to be any worse than DRAM, and in fact, we believe that the opportunity for NAND is better than DRAM because we think that NAND really looks more like DRAM did in the up to 1995, so pre ’95, in which net net it was a pretty good business overall. In other words, the up cycles were longer than the down cycles, and those of us that were good at it made money in the DRAM business, up to the period of time where the price elasticity was pretty good. Although even then, it was into a relatively narrow market with a narrow customer base, NAND actually is a much broader customer base and a lot broader number of applications, so the potential for margin pressure, if you will, I think is not eliminated but reduced by virtue of this variety of channels it goes through, where you actually have opportunity to have more value add. To think about how long it took the DRAM market to get to a differentiated portfolio, effectively it took 25 years for that to occur. Right now, there is a lot of discussion around NAND being high density, et cetera, and that is where you see a lot of the commoditization, but the fact of the matter is there is already a lot of opportunities for differentiation in the NAND space when you start combining it with controllers and interface and software, et cetera, that we think it will have a lessening effect on the volatility. Having said all of that, NAND for us will clearly help drive a lower R&D cost per wafer and help drive, if you will, a scale gain for us where a lot of the other costs get shared as well, because for two reasons. One, not only do we have more wafers to spread the R&D over, but we also now have a partner sharing that cost. Obviously, as our total business grows, we get the benefit there because if you think about what was happening to us in the DRAM business, we had less and less product that needed an advance process, and that is just by virtue of the market bifurcating and splitting between specialty and what you would think of as PC DRAM, but it did not cost us any less to develop that advanced process. It cost us the same. So we had a rising R&D charge per wafer internally. It did not look like it externally because our silicon production was the same or growing. We are actually reversing that trend now. In fact, we internally, in all of our numbers, will show a decreasing R&D cost per wafer by virtue of the scaling of our total silicon business and by virtue of the crossover of development, which is essentially about 70% the same between NAND and DRAM. We are not really focused on just the supply side in ’07. I cannot predict whether what you said is a bloodbath will occur or not, but that does not change our course, not because we have a rich partner, but because of the other benefits that it brings to our business.