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The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 4, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Manitowoc Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Ion Warner, Vice President, Marketing and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Ion Warner

Management

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Manitowoc conference call to review the company's third quarter 2021 financial performance and business update, as outlined in last evening's press release. Participating on the call today are Aaron Ravenscroft, President and Chief Executive Officer and Dave Antoniuk, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's webcast includes a slide presentation, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website under Events and Presentations. We will reserve time for questions and answers after our prepared remarks. I would like to request that you limit your questions to one and a follow-up and return to the queue to ensure everyone has an opportunity to ask their questions. Please turn to slide two. Please note our Safe Harbor statement in the material provided for this call. During today's call, forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 are made based on the company's current assessment of its markets and other factors that affect its business. However, actual results could differ materially from any implied or actual projections due to one or more of the factors, among others, described in the company's latest SEC filings. The Manitowoc Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or other circumstances. And with that, please turn to Slide three and I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Thank you, Ian, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter reminds me of a book written by Chuck Klausing. Chuck was a legendary football coach from Western Pennsylvania. He had a 45 year storied coaching career which started in 1948 and concluded with his induction into the College Hall of Fame. When Chuck retired, he wrote a book about his trials and tribulations titled Never lost a game, Time just ran out. The title of Chuck's memoir is a good description of Manitowoc's third quarter. I've yet to see a quarter where our team executed so well that came up short of our financial expectations. Frankly, I think it was one of the most accomplished quarters our team has achieved since I joined the company in March of 2016. Beginning as always with safety, our journey to a zero harm workplace continues to evolve using the principles of the Manitowoc way. Internally we track our IR or recordable injury rate on a rolling 24-month basis. During the third quarter we set a record low for this metric with an average RIR of 1.46. The significant milestone is a testament to the growing maturity of our safety management system, and our employees daily hazard observation practice. And particular the National Crane Boom Truck value stream in Shady Grove recently celebrated one year without any injuries. Congratulations to Justin Pilgrim and his team on this fantastic achievement. Also, in the quarter we finalized the acquisition of Aspen Equipment and the H&E crane business for approximately $180 million. This translates to an all in EBITDA multiple of roughly six times. The integration of these acquisitions are progressing as planned and we welcome the Aspen and H&E Crane teams to Manitowoc. Moving to the Manitowoc way, during the quarter, we revitalize the workshop at…

Dave Antoniuk

Management

Thanks, Aaron. And good morning, everyone. Let's move to Slide four. As Aaron mentioned, our third quarter orders totaled $535 million, an increase of $145 million, or 37%, compared to the same period last year. On a currency neutral basis, Q3 orders were up $143 million. The increase in orders was mainly driven by a robust European market, exacerbated by weak demand in the prior year due to the COVID pandemic. The Americas regions continued at a steady pace and improved year-over-year primarily as a result of low order intake in the prior year. These gains were partly offset by lower orders in the segment. Our third quarter backlog of $891 million increase 92% over the prior year. Backlog increased across all of our segments. Sequentially backlog increased $155 million due to strong Q3 orders, coupled with the late shipments due to supply chain issues, while over 50% of our backlog is scheduled to ship within the year. Material shortages due to supply chain issues will impact our fourth quarter shipments. Compared to year-end backlog was up 64%. Net sales in the third quarter were $405 million, an increase of $49 million or 14% from a year ago. The year-over-year increase resulted from a combination of entering the quarter with a higher shippable backlog and a low prior year comparable due to COVID. In spite of the year-over-year increase, we estimate that our net sales were negatively impacted by approximately 16% due to the supply chain issues and labor constraints. Third quarter engineering selling and administrative expenses increased by approximately $10 million year-over-year. The increase was primarily driven by higher employee related cost, inclusive of short term incentive compensation expense and acquisition related costs. Our adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of $20 million decreased approximately $5 million year-over-year. As…

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Thanks, Dave. Although the clock ran out on us in the third quarter, we're still fighting to achieve the low end our previous full year EBITDA guidance of $105 million to $115 million. Clearly, given our new guidance, we're concerned that we haven't seen the worst of the parts shortages. We have four major headwinds supply chain, transportation, inflation and labor. As I constantly preach to our team, our competitors face the same issues. During the tough times like these the great companies earn the trust of their customers and gain market share. We have made this our focus, whether it is safety, productivity, quality, new product development, acquisitions, or ESG, the Manitowoc way is our family recipe for solving problems and driving continuous improvements. The true to the testament to this is how we're able to make progress on our four strategic initiatives during this difficult environment. With that, please turn to slide six. And let's take a moment to review our progress on each initiative. Number one, our European tower crane rental fleet strategy continues to progress as planned. Since we embarked on this strategic initiative 18 month ago, we've doubled the size of our rental fleet and maintained a very high asset utilization rates. Additionally, we continue to make inroads by serving key accounts both our new larger capacity top slowing tower cranes. Our strategy of growing our rental fleet also improves our flexibility when pursuing new sales. For example, we recently won an order for an MDT 569 on the HS2 high speed train project in the UK, where we were able to offer a buyback option. This provides the customer with flexibility on the project and an opportunity when exercised for us to utilize this crane in our rental fleet. As another example, we've recently…

Q - Ashok Sivamohan

Management

Hi, this is Ashok Sivamohan on for Jerry Revich. I'm wondering, can you provide some details on what the cadence of your pricing actions have been so far this year? And at this point on new orders coming in? Are you able to match price with locked in steel and component costs?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Good morning Ashok. So the first way as I started looking at this is just looking at commodity pricing. And it's really starting to flatten out during the last couple months. So when I look at the way we've increased prices, we've done it three or four times depending on product lines over the last six months. So right now we feel like we're in good shape that the last price increase that we're on top of it, and we're matched up. It's just a question of working through our backlog now. As Dave said in his opening remarks, if more than 50% is shippable, during the fourth quarter, but in all likelihood with the supply chain issues that we have some of that, obviously, a lot of that's going to fall into next year, too. So we still have probably two more quarters to work through the backlog that's got the tougher pricing.

Ashok Sivamohan

Management

Okay, got it. And can you describe how your M&A pipeline looks today? How much runway do you have to continue to make the types of acquisitions like the H&E Crane business?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Yes, I feel really good about our funnel right now. I think our focus right now is just to keep the funnel going. But it's really our internal focus is on the integration of the two deals we did. We want to make sure that they're good and well vetted before we move on to the next acquisition.

Ashok Sivamohan

Management

Understood, thank you.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

Stephen Volkmann

Management

Good morning, guys. Aaron, your little story reminds me of saying you might remember from your earlier days where the sell side, we're never wrong, we're only early, it applies to us as well. Can I just ask you about this pricing, just sort of the mechanisms? I mean, it seems like steel has maybe started to roll over if it continues to go down, do you get to keep the pricing you've put in so maybe second half of '22, you could see some real margin expansion.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Yeah, so I think part of the trick here is how we buy this deal, because we buy it in some cases, six months out. So obviously, three months ago when we were buying. So we have this dilemma to work through and we historically have really never done surcharges in the crane industry have always done price increases. So that does give us a little bit of buffer. But it's really too early to tell, how sticky these price increases are going to be. If we really see a massive reduction in steel.

Stephen Volkmann

Management

Okay, all right. Fair enough. And then, can you just talk a little bit about I guess, maybe more H&E but Aspen, if you want, as you kind of are starting to integrate these things. How is it sort of fitting in with your expectations and I guess specifically, I'm trying to think about how we should sort of model these things coming into the business through '22.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Yes, so it sounds like your question is really a financial question. Dave want you.

Dave Antoniuk

Management

Yes, so Steve, great question. So correct. The impact for Aspen in the quarter was minimal. So it didn't have any material impact on our third quarter results, however, we will get to see the impact in the fourth quarter and for full year '22. And as Aaron indicated, for both companies were approximately $180 million of acquisition price. And our expectations are that, that will be a six EBITDA multiple. So you can do the math of what we expect in 2022 on that. And as a reminder, both Aspen and H&E were customers of Manitowoc. So during the first quarter of ownership, which is the fourth quarter, we have to eliminate intercompany profit and then ending inventory as we move the equipment from a Manitowoc location to an H&E or Aspen appointment. And as a result, our net EBITDA impact in the fourth quarter is going to be minimal, roughly about $3 million. But from a top line point of view, we think that acquisitions are going to add about $30 million in the fourth quarter.

Stephen Volkmann

Management

Okay, great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And next from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.

Jamie Cook

Management

Hi, good morning. Just a couple of questions. I think you noted that the cadence of orders slowed throughout the quarter. So if you could just give a little more color on the cadence and sort of what you're seeing, post the quarter close. My second question, sort of what's the level that steel prices need to be at, for you guys to generate solid margin, given the price increases that you have? So I guess - and then last, I guess you made some commentary in 2022 is still going to be sort of challenge from a cost margin perspective, if you could just give any more color on that? Thank you.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Yes, so when I look at the backlog, call it it's roughly $900 million. So from my point of view, the last month of the quarter, we had all the price increases and it's roughly $100 million. So that's completely covered with price increases. Probably $200 million of that is from four or five months ago, which is not very well covered, then you got the mess the rest of that's covered. So my view is that yes, fourth quarter is going to be tough, the first quarter is going to be tough, but when I really looked at next year, and my bigger concerns are supply chain. We know we'll work through the backlog. Maybe some will drag into the second quarter but then we've got a lot of coverage on the outstanding backlog that will pick up between here and there. I think your second question is relative to steel prices.

Jamie Cook

Management

Yes.

Dave Antoniuk

Management

Yes. So as far as material input costs, we believe that effectively in September, our price cost dynamic is covered for 2022. So, when we look at order intake from September forward, we think that we're in a good position for all those orders. As Aaron indicated, really the issue is going to be not only the supply chain, but also the labor constraints that not only us, but everybody's facing at this point in time as well. So the 2022 dynamic, while we're not ready to talk about, anything financially, we can - we're just looking at how that backlog is going to impact 2022. Because there's a lot of dynamics that'll happen between now and when we start the next year. I'm sorry, what was your third question, Jamie?

Jamie Cook

Management

Just the sorry, the cadence of orders?

Dave Antoniuk

Management

Okay. So, ahead of the price increases, we saw a lot of orders. So normally, we have our winter campaign in this quarter, it would appear that some of that winter campaign came before the price increases. So September and October had been lighter than what we've seen in the prior few months. And we just really need to look out over the next couple months to see how it plays out to be honest with you.

Jamie Cook

Management

Okay, thanks. I'll get back in queue.

Operator

Operator

[Operator instructions] We'll hear next from Mig Dobre with Baird…

Mig Dobre

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I appreciate a collar on a cadence of pricing and what's in the backlog? So, if we were to stay reach price cost parity, sometime in the second quarter of '22. What will the core incremental margins on your business? And some even now the acquisitions here? What would the core incremental margins look like, based on where you currently have the cost structure set up?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Yes. So I mean, because of the way the backlogs priced, when I think about 2022, I really think that it's the inverse of 2021, where we have these lower margins in the first half, but then we get back to more normalized margins and contribution margins in the second half.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

That I do understand, I'm just curious on the magnitude of what incremental margins should look like in an environment like that?

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Oh, I'd say it's always under normal 20% to 25%.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

And then, my, my follow-up, sort of has to do with China. You talked about demand getting a little bit softer here. I'm curious if you can size this business for us. And I'm also wondering, in North America, it doesn't seem I mean, you call them in steady, so I'm sort of trying to understand as to what that means. Does that mean it's growing at a low rate? Does that mean that it's flattish? And based on what you're hearing from your customers, how do you think demand in North America can progress going forward? I mean, oil and gas seems to be getting better. And obviously, infrastructure is, seems to be pending. So thoughts on that I would appreciate.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Okay, with respect to China. It's our smallest region by far. So I'd say that it's pretty minimal in terms of the overall performance of the company. And it's somewhat offset by strengths and other Belt and Road countries like Russia and Korea. So I'm not overly stressed out about the situation there. It is tough and getting tougher, especially getting payment terms correct. With respect to North America, first of all, dealer inventories, we feel really good about they're back to normal, which we probably have said for two years now. And I was just at a big industry event last week, and the sentiment was very positive for the exact reasons that you mentioned that, hey, there's still an infrastructure program out there that might get passed. And oil prices are now looking sustainable about $80. And, even when I often follow copper prices, too, because that helps drive has done Latin America and some of the other mining countries like Australia. So, I mean, if we can get through this inflationary period, I think there's reason to be optimistic out there, but we're not there yet.

Mig Dobre

Analyst

Great, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And that does conclude today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.

Aaron Ravenscroft

Management

Thank you. Before we conclude today's call, please note that a replay of our third quarter 2021 conference call will be available later this morning by accessing the Investor Relations section of our website at www.manitowoc.com. Thank you everyone for joining us today and for your continued interest in the Manitowoc Company. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.