Earnings Labs

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Sep 24, 2009

$125.56

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Vail Resorts fiscal 2009 year-end results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Robert Katz, Chief Executive Officer of Vail Resorts. Please go ahead, sir.

Robert A. Katz

Management

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Vail Resorts fiscal 2009 year-end earnings conference call and simultaneous webcast, both open to the public and press at large. I’m Rob Katz, Chief Executive Officer of Vail Resorts. Joining me on the call this morning is Jeff Jones, our Chief Financial Officer. Before I get into the discussion of our results, let me remind you that we are using the term reported EBITDA to report earnings for each of our operating segments, namely mountain, lodging, and resort, which is a combination of the mountain and lodging segments, and real estate. The company defines reported EBITDA as segment net revenue less segment operating expense plus or minus segment equity, investment income or loss, and for the real estate segment, plus gain on sale of real property. The company also uses the term net debt, which is defined as long-term debt plus long-term debt due within one year, less cash and cash equivalents. Complete reconciliations of reported EBITDA and other non-GAAP financial measures can be found in this morning’s earnings release and on the vailresorts.com website in the investor relations section. I also need to mention that comments made during this conference call other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Certain risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Investors are directed to the risks and uncertainties described in the documents filed by the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2009. In addition, the Safe Harbor language in today’s press release also applies to our comments on this call. All…

Jeffrey W. Jones

Management

Thanks, Rob and good morning, everyone. Earlier this morning we released our earnings for our fiscal year ended July 31, 2009 and also filed our Form 10-K for the fiscal year 2009. As many of you are aware, our fourth quarter historically is a loss quarter for the company since although our mountain resorts are open for a portion of the fourth quarter for summer activities, there were no ski operations during the quarter. Our summer mountain business was solid in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 and when combined with continued strong expense control produced fourth quarter mountain segment results that were better than we expected. Turning to our lodging segment, which drove the majority of resort net revenue in the quarter, as Rob mentioned earlier, the impact of the economic environment continued into the fourth quarter for our lodging segment. We saw a higher drop-off in revenues than expected in our Vail lodging properties as well as at GTLC in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, due primarily to a significant reduction in group business which could not be offset by FIT visitation, with associated dining revenue also negatively impacted. However, overall we were pleased with our resort fourth quarter results as we were able to manage our operating expenses in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, benefiting from our cost-savings initiatives, partially offset by some one-time prior year favorable expense credits, which did not reoccur in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009. In fact, throughout all of fiscal 2009 in our mountain and lodging segments, we were able to identify and adjust expenses more than might have been expected. As far as our real estate segment in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009, we successfully closed on the final Lodge at Vail Chalet unit for gross revenue…

Robert A. Katz

Management

Thanks, Jeff. As Jeff mentioned, looking ahead to the 2009/2010 ski season, we are cautiously optimistic that the economic environment will at a minimum stabilize. However, we are anticipating that even should the environment improve, some of our guests will remain highly focused on value -- not necessarily looking for the cheapest option but instead searching for ways to get the best experience at acceptable price points. Our company is heading into the 2009/2010 ski season with our own intense focus on providing guests with the value they are looking for. While we will remain active with packages and promotions throughout the season, we have also spent much of the off-season creating new products, services, and offerings which can provide appealing price points for our guests. Our initial efforts along that strategy is the marketing of our season pass programs. These products offer guests incredible value while providing our company with greater certainty and stability to our resort revenue. To date, we are very pleased with our season pass sales for our upcoming 2009/2010 ski season, compared to the comparable period of the prior year. Through September 20, 2009, our total season pass sales to date for the upcoming 2009/2010 ski season have increased approximately 15% in sales dollars and approximately 14% in units over the same period last year, with the prior year selling period representing approximately 55% of the total passes sold for the 2008/2009 ski season. We have continued to see sales of the Epic Season Pass outpace our other pass products and strong consumer reception to this new product. As a reminder, in the 2008/2009 ski season, season pass revenue grew to 34% of lift ticket revenue compared to 26% in the 2007/2008 season. We were hopeful that given the unique value pass products offer, we…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

I noticed you didn’t disclose the hotel booking statistics this time as you did last year and I understand that booking windows have shortened and that the pre-season sales are only about 15% to 20% but can you maybe talk directionally about it and what you are seeing, what you are doing on rate versus kind of rebuilding occupancy?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Sure. First of all, no, we definitely made a conscious decision not to talk about it. I think that’s because we are not really that focused on it. I think the -- obviously I think we were already seeing a shortening of the booking window last year. I think that when you combine the fact that this time last year was before the real impacts had hit from the financial dislocation. I think we just felt like it’s just not a trend that’s material. Obviously bookings are down overall. We think that the December earnings call will be a better time to start updating and talking about that. At that point, we’ll have some comparable statistics to periods after the financial crisis of last year. And given the shorter booking windows, probably some more meaningful numbers. In terms of rate and occupancy, what I would say is we are really looking at a comprehensive strategy. We don’t kind of go with a focus on one or the other. We are really looking to maximize lodging revenue but at the same time maximizing overall resort revenue. And that just depends upon the individual package, promotion time of year, overall occupancy levels and many other factors. But it’s something that we are highly focused on.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay, fair enough -- and just to switch gears for a second, on the acquisition front, I know you won't be able to say a lot specifically but is it your sense that there is a better chance this year that an opportunity comes along as we are hearing about now certain levels of distress across the industry and -- what is kind of your number one criteria when you think about potential acquisition?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Well, you’re right -- I am not going to comment on that, I’m not going to comment on it for this year either. I certainly can comment on our criteria. I think we are looking for properties or businesses that we feel allow us an opportunity to leverage our existing strengths and so that there’s a reason why we can add value to whatever it is that we would buy. I think that the key thing for us is discipline. I think that’s something obviously that has paid off in spades over the last year and we don’t intend to walk away from that discipline. You know, with that said, we are always actively looking for the right opportunity.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay, very good. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays Capital.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

As you are trying to get back your lost destination guests to get them to spend more, obviously you are implementing a lot of different initiatives, I’m just wondering how you are thinking about the window, the walk-up window ticket pricing for the peak season.

Robert A. Katz

Management

What I would say is we haven’t really made any final decisions on that. I guess what I would share though is as a whole this is not a year where we believe you are going to see too many price increases across the company. I think this is not -- obviously in prior years in a different economic environment, obviously that’s been a key part of the strategy and there’s no question that going into this year, that’s going to be a much lesser part of our strategy. I think this is a time where you want to get not only guests who have been to the resort before to come back but also to take more trips, and quite frankly we want to focus on getting the guests who have previously spent more money with us to again reengage with a lot of those products. Again, I’m not going to speak to any specific price but I think if you thought about the overall strategy, our focus is much more on volume and participation than it is on price.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for that. And then just on real estate, just to get some updates since the last call and since we’ve been through the summer, just on the repricing effort, just wondering if all the contract holders ended up taking that?

Robert A. Katz

Management

No, they didn’t. There are some that didn’t but certainly a big majority did. I think the -- you know, I think what we are seeing on the real estate front is the way I’ve described is there are -- is much more activity around the Ritz project. I think even if we haven’t reported a sale, per se, I think you are getting a lot more people taking tours, you are getting a lot more people asking for contracts and while in the end, it’s the sales that count, we went through a long period of time where there was really no activity. And so I think we are starting to see kind of real estate activity bubble up again. I think if you look at some of the overall numbers for [Eagle] County and the Town of Vale, you will see months, the most recent months being much higher than the previous four or five months or six months. Now those months in terms of real estate activity are still much lower than they were two years ago or a year-and-a-half ago but I think we are starting to see kind of that renewed interest. I think that goes along with the up-tick in the stock market. People are feeling a bit more confident, so I think we certainly feel more confident about our real estate efforts for this season but still pretty cautious.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay, just so I can understand, getting back to -- so the people who didn’t take the repricing, did they walk or did they just not take it?

Robert A. Katz

Management

No, they just didn’t take it and I think -- you know, it’s hard to say why ultimately any particular person made their decision and I don’t really want to comment on that but I’ll talk broadly and again probably should come as no surprise that broadly in the real estate industry, there are people who signed contracts at one point in time and may or may not ultimately look to close on those contracts. We even had that at Crystal Peak where we had three of our 45 units that were under contract decide not to close. And so I think that’s a process that’s going to continue to play out over time and at the same time there are other people who are 100% confident they are going to close and so I think that’s something that we are going to be working through over the next 12 months and I am sure we will be talking more about that, particularly as we get into the beginning of calendar year 2010.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay, and then just with the units that Marriott has, have they been a partner with you in terms of how they are pricing their units?

Robert A. Katz

Management

No, there’s no coordination from the --

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

No, I don’t mean coordination -- what I just mean is in line with -- basically my question is have they been under-cutting you?

Robert A. Katz

Management

No, again I -- no, I don’t -- I think that there is -- I would say that both organizations have taken a more flexible approach to pricing. Obviously Marriott just put out an announcement yesterday about their time share inventory and about taking a more flexible approach and again, that’s pretty consistent with what we are doing. So I don’t -- and it’s a very, very different product. So at the end of the day, I don’t think -- we don’t really view -- somebody who is coming in, who is interested in buying a whole ownership unit is not really interested in buying a 12th or a 16th or a 10th of a unit. You know, again I think the -- their fractional units are not really a primary concern for our efforts on selling the whole ownership units.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay, great. And then just final, last question, just getting back, I know you said you are not going to give color on individual pass subs but I just want to ask, you might have even said this, I might have missed it, did you give any color into what your same-store season pass sales were?

Robert A. Katz

Management

No, and that’s a very difficult -- because same-store, we have people who are trading from one path to another so the concept of same-store sales as it relates to our season passes is very difficult. It’s really we’ve got different people moving from different products, so -- I think what we did say is that sales of the epic season pass are continuing to outpace everything else and I would say that is by a material amount. I mean, there is definitely a difference between the growth in that product and the results on other products.

Felicia Hendrix - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Will Marks with JMP Securities.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

I wanted to start out on just taking Felicia’s question a step further -- I was a little confused. I thought on the Ritz project, you would receive part of your deposit back based on the lower pricing. Is that not accurate?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Yes, that is accurate.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

So why wouldn’t everyone?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Well again, I’m not going to comment on -- I don’t want to comment on why, on the individual people involved at the Ritz but what I would say is again broadly, people who are under contract for certain units but don’t really want to close or don’t have the means to close or whatever it is may take a different approach to that process than other people and again, that’s about as much as I really want to say. I don’t want to get into speculating because we are not really privy to that.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Thank you. On Keystone, I don’t think you mentioned -- at this time last season or a little further in, you decided not to begin selling that project. Here we are a year later and you have the gondola set up. What are your plans there, and for any other real estate passed the Ritz and One Ski Hill?

Robert A. Katz

Management

What I would say is that we are currently in a holding mode as it relates to future real estate projects. I think we are continuing on the planning or approval process, some of the design work but I think we need to see some better pick-up in the real estate market before we would launch a new product. I would say that at the moment, we don’t plan on launching One River Run this winter. Now with that said, it is a project that is certainly ready to go and if we saw a pick-up and more real estate activity in the mountain resort industry, we would absolutely reconsider that decision. But at the moment, that would be our plan.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

And on One Ski Hill, you haven’t lowered your prices -- I assume this means that you feel you are somewhere around the market?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Yeah, I think we feel good about our prices. Maybe that’s the best way to put it.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay. And then lastly, kind of big picture in terms of guidance, I know you just give EBITDA guidance, not revenues but I’m curious on -- you gave us some qualitative view of ticket pricing. What about in terms of -- does your guidance assume increased revenues in certain areas like ski school and retail rental, just even if it’s qualitative thoughts?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Yes, it does so I think that guidance -- that guidance does include both some volume increases on the skier -- well, I guess I should say it does include the volume impact on overall ticket revenue and it also includes anticipated volume increases in the ancillary businesses. And a pick-up in retail rental, a pick-up on -- you know, other -- I think we are feeling like -- you know, look, I think there is very little visibility and I think I can’t stress that enough in terms of what the economy is going to bring over the next six to nine months. At the same time, I think there’s no question that the economy went south right in the heart of our season last year and I think we are feeling like even if we are not going to see things return to 2007/2008 levels anytime soon, we think that there can still be some improvement that we can deliver through both our own efforts and our guests feeling better this season.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay, thank you and actually, a couple of number questions for Jeff -- do you have a number, since we have limited balance sheet information but a book value of real estate and then maybe construction in progress?

Jeffrey W. Jones

Management

I think that the real estate held for sale line item that we ended up with at the end of the year was $311 million on the balance sheet. And I would say the land component of that is a little bit over $50 million of the 311.

Will Marks - JMP Securities

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Okay, great. That’s it for me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jake Hindelong with Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Company. Jake Hindelong - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.: First question is just as far as bookings are concerned, you referenced a couple of times the steep downturn really in bookings I would think more like last October. Last year at this time you were down about mid-teens on a units or rooms night basis. If you project forward the rate that we are at now and for September, do you think that by the end of October, you’d be in somewhat of a similar place to where you were last year at the end of October?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Again, I’m not going to be able to comment on any of that. I think again, I think the booking pattern that we saw last year was so radically different that anything we had seen in the prior five to six years that -- and it’s still unclear as to exactly what the booking pattern for this year will be, so what I would say is we’ve obviously incorporated visitation into our overall guidance but in terms of trying to guess exactly how the booking pattern will play out I think is hard to do. I do think -- I’m not sure exactly what the visibility will be like but I do think that the December earnings call is a better time to share insight on that than today. Jake Hindelong - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.: Great, okay and then you talked about your change in marketing strategy, can you talk about when you rolled that out, so if that would already be kind of impacting your season pass sales? And then just what the change, if there is a change in spending level on marketing is?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Sure. What I would say is the change in marketing on a lot of the new programs and promotions on season passes are really going into place for the fall time period. I think they were not in place for the spring time period. In terms of broader marketing, those were put in place really back in the spring in terms of some of the changes that we were making in terms of where our dollars and resources were going to go. We are at this point not making any dramatic cuts in marketing. I would say being more flexible, you know, and being more opportunistic but I think out thought is that this is an opportunity for us to continue to make in-roads in a number of different areas and part of that is using our marketing strength. Jake Hindelong - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.: And so last year there was nothing like the epic pass retail tour?

Robert A. Katz

Management

That’s right, there was not. Jake Hindelong - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.: Got it, great. And then just last question, can you give us a quick update on Ever Vail? I understand that there’s a lot of local boards and planning going on with the Town of Vail and there’s some near-term benchmarks that might be hit or not.

Robert A. Katz

Management

Sure. I think we actually recently completed an in-depth couple of days between our folks and the staff of the Town of Vail really going through the entire project. I think everybody walked out of that feeling like it was an incredibly productive session and I think we started the process of talking with the town council and we will be resubmitting the project relatively shortly in the next couple of months and then working through a step-by-step process, both with the Town of Vail, other regulatory bodies like the design and review board and the planning commission but most importantly continuing to take input from the Vail community and we will be continuing to do public sessions that allow us to share what our thinking is but also taking input from folks in the town. You know, we actually feel very good about where that project stands, very good about the process that we are going through but we are not at the finish line yet. Jake Hindelong - Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.: Okay, great. That’s all helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of David Hargreaves with Sterne Agee.

David Hargreaves - Sterne Agee

Analyst · Sterne Agee.

I hope this isn’t too simplistic or maintenance related but could you comment on your ability to incur debt as it stands today and in particular, your ability to incur debt ahead of the notes?

Robert A. Katz

Management

I think we will defer on that. What I would say is certainly we remain in compliance with all of the covenants of all of our debt instruments but beyond that, that’s not something we can really comment on.

David Hargreaves - Sterne Agee

Analyst · Sterne Agee.

Could you just remind us as to what the tightest outstanding covenants are?

Robert A. Katz

Management

Again, no.

David Hargreaves - Sterne Agee

Analyst · Sterne Agee.

Could you give us any sense of where your restricted payment basket stands today?

Robert A. Katz

Management

No.

David Hargreaves - Sterne Agee

Analyst · Sterne Agee.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) I show no further questions in the queue. Please continue.

Robert A. Katz

Management

Okay. Operator, are we ready to conclude?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir.

Robert A. Katz

Management

Thank you, Operator. That wraps up our fiscal 2009 year-end earnings call. Thanks to everyone who joined us on the conference call today. Please feel free to contact me or Jeff directly should you have any further questions. Thank you for your time this morning and goodbye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Vail Resorts fiscal 2009 year-end results conference call. If you would like to listen to a replay of today’s conference, please dial 303-590-3030 or 800-406-7325 and enter the access code 4154379. The numbers again are 303-590-3030 or 800-406-7325 and the access code is 4154379. ACT would like to thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.