Nathan Colson
Analyst · Cullen Johnson
Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim mentioned, we had another quarter of strong financial results. In the third quarter, we earned $158 million of net income or $0.46 per diluted share and generated an annualized 13% return on beginning shareholders’ equity. Adjusted net operating income was $157 million compared to $150 million in the third quarter last year. During the quarter, total revenues were $296 million, the same as last year. The net premium yield for the third quarter was 38.4 basis points, which was down 7/10 of basis point compared to last quarter. The decrease was primarily results of a decline in the in-force premium yield as the older policies with generally at higher premium rates continue to run off. As refinance activity decreased, we also realized less benefit from accelerated premiums earned from single premium policy cancellations. During the quarter, they were $17 million, which was flat to last quarter but down from $32 million in the third quarter of 2020. Shifting over to credit. Net losses incurred were $21 million in the third quarter compared to $29 million last quarter and $41 million in the third quarter last year. In the quarter, we received approximately 9,900 new delinquency notices, which represents less than 90 basis points of the number of loans insured as of the start of the quarter and drove the low loss ratio of 8.1%. As a point of comparison, in the third quarter of 2019 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we received approximately 42% more new delinquency notices and they represented approximately 140 basis points of the number of loans insured at the beginning of that quarter, while the loss ratio in the third quarter of 2019 was 12.7%. We are encouraged by the strength of the housing market and the credit trends we are experiencing, including the low level of early payment defaults, I believe they are a good indicator of near-term credit performance. These positive credit trends continued in October, their notice inventory declining by another 1,500 notices as Cures continue to outpace new notices. The estimated claim rate on new notices received in the third quarter of 2021 was approximately 7.5% compared to approximately 8% in the third quarter of 2020. In the quarter, we realized $18 million of favorable loss reserve development compared to immaterial development last quarter and in the third quarter of last year. The favorable development in the quarter was primarily attributable to delinquency notices received prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, we still have not seen adequate support to make any adjustments to the reserves associated with the large cohort of COVID-related delinquency notices received primarily in Q2 of last year, but we remain encouraged as we saw a similar level of notices in Cures in October as we did in September. The number of claims received in the quarter remained very low due to the various foreclosure and eviction moratoriums. Primary paid claims in the quarter were $18 million compared to $11 million last quarter. The modest increase in paid claims this quarter was primarily the result of a commutation of coverage on nonperforming loans in the third quarter. We continue to expect claim payments to remain low for the next few quarters given the timelines for foreclosure and eviction moratoriums for GSE loans and the additional procedural safeguards required by the CFPB. Next, I wanted to spend a couple of minutes talking about our capital position and capital actions in the quarter. As Tim mentioned, in the third quarter, we paid an $0.08 per share dividend for a total of $27 million and repurchased 10 million shares for a total of $150 million. In October, we repurchased an additional 3.8 million shares for a total of $60 million under a 10b5-1 plan, we put in place earlier this year. The Board also authorized an additional $500 million share repurchase program that expires at the end of 2023. And as previously announced, the Board declared an $0.08 per share dividend payable on November 23. At the end of the third quarter, we had $716 million of holding company liquidity and a $2.6 billion access to the PMIERs minimum requirements at the operating company. MGIC’s access to the PMIERs requirements as of September 30 resulted in a PMIERs sufficiency ratio of 180% and remained above our current target level. Since MGIC’s capital position continues to be above our current target level, we are having discussions with our regulator about a dividend to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2021. As of October 30 -- as of October 31, 2021, our holding company’s liquidity also remains above our current target levels even if we fully use the remaining $81 million on the share repurchase authorization that expires at year-end 2021. Any additional dividends paid from MGIC to the holding company in the fourth quarter would increase the holding company’s liquidity. At this time, our plan is to use those additional dividends if they are received to settle the eventual redemption of our 9% Convertible Junior Debentures due in 2063. Our most recent 10-K has additional details, but under the terms of the debentures, we can redeem the debentures for principal plus accrued interest when our share price closes above a certain level for 20 of 30 consecutive trading days. For 2021, that share price level is $17.20. And the share price level has reduced annually as a result of the dividends paid in the prior year and under certain circumstances as allowed under the debentures. We hope to provide a redemption notice for the debentures in the near term with the redemption date at least 30 days later. If we provide a redemption notice, we expect virtually all of the holders of the debentures will elect to convert their debentures into common stock before the redemption date. Under the terms of the debentures, we may elect to pay cash to converting holders in lieu of issuing shares, and we expect we would do so under most circumstances. Given our strong operating results and recent share price performance, we felt it was the right time to position the holding company to actively consider the retirement of the debentures. While the timing remains uncertain, retiring the debentures would eliminate approximately 16 million potentially dilutive shares and $19 million in annual interest expense. And would reduce our debt-to-capital ratio by approximately 300 basis points as of September 30 on a pro forma basis. As Tim mentioned, we continue to believe that our balanced approach to maintaining a strong capital position provides the most flexibility to maximize the long-term value of both the writing company and the holding company. This balanced approach includes using forward commitment quota share reinsurance treaties, accessing the capital markets for excess of loss reinsurance via ILN transactions and seeking dividends from MGIC to the holding company as appropriate. While not an indication of the amount of dividends we would see, our current expectation is that any future dividends paid from MGIC to the holding company will occur less frequently than the quarterly cadence we had pre-COVID due in part to the robust liquidity position of the holding company. With that, let me turn it back to Tim.