Nathan Colson
Analyst · Barclays. Please ask your question
Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim mentioned in the results show, we had another strong quarter of financial results as the impact on our business from the effects of COVID-19 continues to diminish. In the first quarter, we are in $150 million of net income or $0.43 per diluted share and generated an annualized 13% return on beginning shareholders’ equity. This compares to $150 million of net income or $0.42 per diluted share an annualized 14% return on beginning shareholder’s equity in the same period last year. Adjusted net operating income per diluted share in the first quarter was a $0.001 [ph] lower than the reported GAAP amount, a detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in the press release. During the quarter, total revenues were $298 million compared to $307 million last year with the decrease primarily due to lower investment income and lower net premium earned. Investment income was lower as the larger investment portfolio was more than offset by lower yields. Net premiums earned were lower primarily due to a lower net premium yield, an increase in the amount of premiums and risk ceded through our reinsurance transactions. These affects were partially offset by an increase in accelerated premiums earned from single premium policy cancellations compared to the first quarter of 2020 and higher average insurance in force. The net premium yield for the first quarter was approximately 41 basis points, which was down sequentially by approximately two basis points, primarily because the in force premium yield continues to reprice through attrition of the older policies, which generally have higher premium rates. We also realize less benefit from accelerated premiums earned from single premium policy cancellations compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Single premium policies represent a smaller percentage of our in force portfolio than in 2020 through the increased level of refinances over the last several quarters and there was also a smaller percentage of our new business being generated from these policies. During the quarter accelerated premiums from single premium policy cancellations were $28 million compared to $32 million last quarter and $18 million in the first quarter of 2020. I expect the direct in force premium yield to continue to trend lower throughout 2021 as the older policies was generally have higher premium rates runoff and are replaced with new policies, which generally have lower premium rates. However, due to the recognition of accelerated single premiums, the level of profit commission and the impact of new business, the change in the net premium yield is more difficult to reliably forecast, but is also expected to decline overtime. Despite the lower premium rates on newer policies, we expect to earn attractive risk adjusted returns on our new business written. Shifting over to credit. Net losses incurred were $40 million in the first quarter compared to $61 million for the same period last year. In the first quarter, we received approximately 13,000 new delinquency notices, which represents 1.2% of the number of loans insured as of the end of 2020, which was the same percentage that rolled from current to delinquent in the first quarter of last year, we encouraged by the fact that this ratio has returned to its pre-COVID level. The estimated claim rate on new notices received in the first quarter of 2021 was approximately 7.5% compared to 9% in the first quarter of 2020. As we do each quarter, we reevaluated our loss reserves on our existing delinquency inventory and in the first quarter of 2021 determined that there was immaterial loss reserve development compared to $3 million of unfavorable development in the first quarter last year. We reduced our reserve for incurred, but not reported or IBNR delinquencies in the first quarter of 2021 by $4 million to approximately $24 million compared to an increase of $8 million in the first quarter of 2020. As a reminder, we adjust the IBNR reserve, as we re-estimate the number of loans whose borrowers had missed a payment, but that had not yet been reported to us as delinquent. Of the 53,000 loans in our delinquency inventory at quarter end, approximately 61% or 32,200 loans were reported to us to be in forbearance. Based on the information reported to us, we estimate that the majority of the loans in forbearance at quarter end will reach the end of their forbearance term in the later part of 2021. More specifically, we estimate that more than 60% of the loans in forbearance at quarter end will reach their 12-month anniversary of being in forbearance in the second quarter of 2021. Although we expect some of those plans will be extended either for three months or six months. We continue to see loans exit forbearance without a claim payment, future economic conditions, including unemployment and home prices will impact the ultimate outcome of the remaining loans in forbearance. Although it is uncertain how the current delinquency inventory will be resolved, I am pleased that the favorable delinquency and cure activity has continued through April and that the downside earnings and capital risk has been materially less than from what it was at the end of the second quarter last year. The number of claims received in the quarter remained very low and we’re down nearly 64% from the same period last year due to the various foreclosure and eviction moratoriums. Primary paid claims declined to just under $12 million and consisted primarily of short sales and deed in lieu of foreclosure. At some point, the foreclosure moratoriums will expire. However, we expect claim payments to remain modest for several quarters after they expire, because on average, it takes approximately 18 months to complete a foreclosure should that become necessary. Moving on to operating expenses. During the first quarter, they totaled $51 million compared to $45 million in the same period last year. Last quarter, we informed you that we have been making and plan to make further investments in our infrastructure to realize the value that comes with improved data, analytics and operating improvements of an increasingly digitized mortgage finance industry. While the rate of spend to date is a bit lower than the guidance we previously provided, I do expect the rate of investment to increase in the coming quarters and that the full year underwriting and other expenses will still be in the range of $220 million to $225 million, but more likely towards the lower end of that range. Reflecting our current debt outstanding, interest expense was $18 million in the quarter compared to $13 million in the same period last year. Assuming no additional transactions, the annual debt service costs will be approximately $70 million. We had approximately $800 million of cash and investments of the holding company as of March 31, 2021. At the most recent board meeting, the holding company board approved a cash dividend of $0.06 per share payable on May 27. Any future common stock dividends will also be determined in consultation with the board. We continue to believe that our balanced approach and maintaining a strong balance sheet, which includes the use of forward commitment quota share treaties and by accessing the capital markets for excess of loss reinsurance via ILN transactions provides the most flexibility to maximize the long-term value of both the operating company and holding company, whether by writing more primary mortgage insurance, pursuing new business opportunities, retiring debt, paying dividends, or repurchasing stock. At quarter end, our consolidated cash and investments totaled $7 billion, including the cash and investments at the holding company. The consolidated investment portfolio to mix of 84% taxable and 16% tax exempt securities, a pre-tax yield of 2.5% and a duration of 4.5 years. Primarily reflecting the interest rate movements in the quarter, the net unrealized gain declined to $226 million at March 31, 2021 compared to $345 million at year end. Shifting the financial requirements of the private mortgage insurer eligibility requirements, or PMIERs of the GSEs, MGIC’s available assets totaled approximately $5.5 billion resulting in a $2.3 billion access over the minimum required assets of $3.2 billion, and a PMIERs efficiency ratio of 169% as Tim said. The $3.2 billion, a minimum required assets at the end of the first quarter reflects a 70% reduction for loans in a COVID-19 related forbearance plan as allowed under the PMIERs. This provided approximately $620 million of PMIERs relief net of reinsurance. This access of available assets over minimum required assets grew by approximately $500 million in the quarter as a result of the $360 million reduction in required assets associated with the ILN transaction that closed in February and approximately $200 million in available assets generated organically through our results of operations, partially offset by the increase in required assets to support the increase in risk in force in the first quarter. In summary, we remain encouraged that as the economy continues to recover the favorable trends and credit performance and in the housing market will continue. We feel we are well positioned to capitalize on the market opportunities that our robust housing market should make available to us given our strong market presence, a growing enforced book of business that is currently generating a low level of delinquencies, a comprehensive reinsurance program, and the quality of new business being written. With that, let me turn it back to Tim.