David Lancaster
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Yeah, hey Dan it's David, I'll start and Rad or Ryan may want to also chime in. But, I think, that - I think, we feel - we feel good about the estimates that we have for EURs and as you note - as you've noted, the obviously the more information that you have better. But, as an example, I would maybe go back to some of our longest producing wells now, which were the Dorothy White and the Ranger 33 wells, the Dorothy White being the longest producing well that we have at Wolf. And, we had kind of still at the range of sort of 500 BOE to 1 million BOE as that where we thought wells in that area would come out. Really, initially we had about 500 BOE and 700 BOE, and we ended having to ultimately take the Dorothy White up to 1 million BOE type curve. Because of its - it's exceptionally strong performance early on. The nice thing about that is we probably did that within about three months of the time that that well started coming on. And, now 18 months down the road, we haven't had to really make any adjustment if anything it's only continuing to improve, against that type curve. Likewise at Ranger, we kind of started out in the range of 500 MBOE to 700 MBOE, and really both the range of 33 and the Pickard wells, the Second Bone Spring wells have actually also improved against our original type curve estimates and against our original EUR estimate. So I hope that that will continue to be the case. Obviously, when you have two months of data or three months of data, it's not as good as when you have 18 months or approaching two years, but I do feel like that we've - that we continue to be very comfortable with our numbers. With regard to the B factors, I will say that I think that, we probably tend to be a little on the conservative side when it comes to the B factors. Our B factors are typically about 1.1. And I don't - I think that's a very, very reasonable B factor to be using in these estimates. I think it's typically lower than what I've seen some of our peers use. And so I think that we're again comfortable with our estimates there, and should these wells flatten a little more as time goes on and justify a little higher B factor, that will only be good for those estimates, because they would tend to go up from here.