Gary Swidler
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Thanks, Shar. Q4 saw our fastest topline growth of the year, 19% year-over-year, a one point acceleration from Q3 levels. Tinder grew direct revenue 13% and the non-Tinder businesses continue to accelerate with direct revenue up 28% year-over-year. All major non Tinder brands contributed year-over-year direct revenue growth in Q4. This was the third consecutive quarter of non-Tinder brands showing growth in aggregate. Pairs, as well as our newer brands Hinge, Chispa, BLK and PlentyOfFish live streaming, all grew rapidly in the quarter. We believe Q4 results would have been even better had COVID lockdowns not sent so many people back inside their homes and colder weather limited people's activities in many parts of the globe. The growth in Q4 was very balanced by geography with each of North America and international contributing 19% year-over-year direct revenue growth. Indirect revenue grew 35% year-over-year as many marketers look to deploy unspent budgets in Q4. Average subscribers increased 1.1 million over the prior year to 10.9 million representing 12% year-over-year growth, up 9% in North America and 14% internationally. Year-over-year Tinder's average subscribers were up over 800,000 or 14% and non-Tinder brands were up over 300,000 or 8%, recall that Q4 tends to be our weakest quarter seasonally for subscriber growth. Virtually all of the sequential subscriber growth in Q4 came from Tinder. Subscriber growth, particularly at Tinder's broad global business was impacted by COVID related effects in a number of key markets, including India, Brazil and Western Europe, particularly the UK. Total company ARPU was up 5% year-over-year to $0.62, up 7% in North America and 4% internationally. Tinder ARPU was down slightly year-over-year due to a softness in the a la carte revenue as COVID lockdowns increased, and a deliberately slower than expected rollout of Tinder Platinum, which we decided to only make available to existing Tinder subscribers in Q4. Non-Tinder brand's 16% year-over-year ARPU growth was remarkable. All major non Tinder brands increased ARPU year-over-year in Q4. Pricing optimization at Hinge and OkCupid, the launch of a la carte features at Hinge and PlentyOfFish live streaming revenue were major contributors to the ARPU improvement in the quarter. Operating income grew 17% and EBITDA grew 13% year-over-year in Q4. EBITDA margins were 38%, 1.8 points lower than in Q4 '19 primarily because of higher cost of revenue and sales and marketing spend. Sales and marketing spend was up $34 million or 34% year-over-year as we tried to take advantage of new channels in Japan and spent into the well-received Match Made In Hell campaign. Marketing spend represented 21% of total revenue in Q4, in line with Q3 levels, but up three points from the year ago period. Cost of revenue was impacted by higher IR fees, web hosting costs and fees related to live-streaming video at PlentyOfFish. For the full year, we achieved nearly $2.4 billion of total revenue, up 17% and almost $900 million of EBITDA, up 15%. Despite all the challenges posed by COVID, we delivered on the mid to high teens revenue and EBITDA targets we set a year ago. Our gross and net leverage declined to 4.3 times and 3.5 times respectively, down from 4.8 times and 4.6 times at the time of the separation from IAC. We are pleased to see net leverage already well below four times. We ended the quarter with $739 million of cash on hand. Due to timing of certain payments, our EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate was higher in Q4 than it had been year-to-date through September. As a result, our 2020 full year free cash flow conversion was similar to 2019 levels. As we discussed in our shareholder letter, there is much uncertainty as we begin 2021. We expect COVID will continue to be a headwind for subscriber growth in the first half of 2021, but are hoping for improvement as the vaccine rollout gain steam. factoring this in, We believe we can generate $2.75 billion to $2.85 billion of total revenue in 2021, representing another year of mid to high teens top line growth. We anticipate strong contributions to growth by both the Tinder and non-Tinder brands. We expect the combination of low double-digit subscriber growth and single-digit ARPU growth to drive company direct revenue growth. our outlook also assumes indirect Revenue is essentially flat year-over-year. While we expect Tinder subscriber net additions to gradually improve as 2021 progresses, our Q4 performance is testament to the fact that our growth is no longer dependent on Tinder subscriber additions. We now -- our business with multiple growth drivers, and we expect the combination of these will drive strong growth in the foreseeable future. We expect 2021 EBITDA to exceed $1 billion with mid to high teens year-over-year growth driven by the revenue growth and additional spend in product development, trust and safety and somewhat higher legal costs. The legal cost increase includes cost to defend the lawsuit by former Tinder employees, which is scheduled to go to trial late this year. Incremental product development spend will be focused in three buckets. One, continued investment in our emerging brands such as Ablo, Hawaya and Pairs Engage, the latter two of which are targeted primarily at growth in Asia. Two, adding to our tech and video capabilities as we expand our product use cases, and three, supporting growth at Tinder, Hinge and our other key brands. Given the investments we think are appropriate, we may not expand margins this year. Underlying that is an assumption that conditions will create an environment where our anticipated spend levels, particularly in marketing, make sense. And that is far from certain in the current tumultuous climate. We intend to continue to be flexible and adjust quickly as we have throughout the past year in the face of the pandemic. In 2021, we expect to again drive meaningful growth from newer brands such as Hinge, Chispa and BLK, which have recently reached or are close to reaching profitability. As these brands continue to improve their margins, overall company margins will benefit as well. We continue to expect to gradually increase company margins in subsequent years to reach our long-term target of 40%. We expect 2021 capital expenditures of approximately $80 million as we build out new office space in New York and LA. We expect free cash flow conversion levels in 2021 to be similar to those of the prior two years. We do not expect to be a full US Federal cash taxpayer until 2023. We expect stock-based compensation for the full year 2021 to be approximately $100 million and depreciation and amortization to total approximately $45 million. For Q1, we expect total revenue of $645 million to $655 million, which would represent 18% to 20% year-over-year growth. In Q1, we expect continued 20%-plus, year-over-year revenue growth levels at the non-Tinder brands and slightly stronger year-over-year growth at Tinder than we saw in Q4. We expect EBITDA of $210 million to $215 million in Q1, which reflects margins that are consistent with our typical Q1 levels. Our ranges for Q1 and full year 2021 factor in anticipated impacts from Google's new requirement to use their in app billing system beginning in September. The outlook does not include potential impact from changes to IDFA which remains difficult to quantify at this time. Nor any relief that might be achieved on App Store fees, as a result of all the regulatory actions challenging Apple and Google's conduct, where changes that the stores themselves may decide to impose. We are delighted to be able to provide an outlook which includes mid to high teens revenue and EBITDA growth again for 2021, as we did for 2020 a year ago. We are hopeful that 2021 will gradually provide calmer waters on which we can execute our plan and deliver another solid year performance for our shareholders. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.