Don MacLeod
Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities
Thank you, Maria and good morning. I’d like to thank everyone for participating in M&T’s third quarter 2015 earnings conference call, both by telephone and through the webcast. If you have not read the earnings release we issued this morning, you may access it along with the financial tables and schedules from our website www.mtb.com and by clicking on the investor relations link. Also before we start I’d like to mention that comments made during this call might contain forward-looking statements relating to the banking industry and to M&T Bank Corporation. M&T encourages participants to refer to our SEC filings including those found on forms 8-K, 10-K, and 10-Q for a complete discussion of forward-looking statements. Now, I’d like to introduce our Chief Financial Officer, René Jones.
René Jones: Thank you Don and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call this morning. As I’m sure you noticed in this morning’s press release, earnings were a bit soft relative to this year’s second quarter as origination activity slowed in both our residential and commercial mortgage banking operations. In addition, credit costs were slightly higher coming off unusually low second quarter levels. That said, growth in net interest income and certain other revenue categories combined with well-controlled operating expenses which enabled us to maintain solid efficiency ratio, slightly improved from both last quarter and last year’s third quarter. As I’m sure all of you are aware, our application to acquire Hudson City Bancorp was approved by the Federal Reserve on September 30th and by -- and subsequently by other regulators, and is set to close on November 1st. We’ll start out this morning by reviewing a few of the highlights from the recent quarter’s results, after which we’ll give you an update on our outlook for the merger and its benefits to M&T; then Don and I will be happy to take your questions. Turning to the results, diluted GAAP earnings per common share were $1.93 for the third quarter of 2015 compared with $1.98 in the second quarter and up from $1.91 in the third quarter of 2014. Net income for the quarter was $280 million compared with $287 million in the linked quarter and $275 million in the year ago quarter. Recall that in this year’s second quarter in connection with the divestiture of Wilmington Trust’s trade processing business we recorded a pretax gain of $45 million while operating expenses included $40 million in contributions to the M&T charitable foundation. Taken together, the two items reduced net income by about $1 million or $0.01 per common share. Since 1998, M&T has consistently provided supplemental reporting of its results on a net operating or tangible basis from which we exclude the after-tax effect of amortization of intangible assets as well as expenses and gains associated with mergers and acquisitions. After-tax expense from the amortization of intangible assets was $3 million or $0.02 per common share in the recent quarter compared with $4 million and $0.03 per common share in the second quarter. M&T’s net operating income for the third quarter which excludes intangible amortization was $283 million compared with $290 million in the linked quarter and $280 million in last year’s third quarter. Diluted net operating earnings per common share were $1.95 for the recent quarter compared with $2.01 in the previous quarter and up one penny from the year ago quarter. Net operating income yielded annualized rates of return on average tangible assets and average tangible common shareholders’ equity of 1.18% and 12.98% for the recent quarter, the comparable returns were 1.24% and 13.76% in the second quarter of 2015. In accordance with SEC guidelines, this morning’s press release contains a tabular reconciliation of GAAP non-GAAP results including tangible assets and equity. Looking to the balance sheet and the income statement, taxable equivalent net interest income was $699 million for the third quarter of 2015, representing a 4% increase from last year’s third quarter and up $10 million or an annualized 6% from the linked quarter. The net interest margin was 3.14% during the quarter, down three basis points from 3.17% in the second quarter. Drivers of the change in margin were as follows: Higher levels of trust deposits placed with the Fed diluted the margin by about 2 basis points but had an immaterial impact on the dollar amount of net interest income. Offsetting that were higher levels of prepayment fees and cash interest received on non-accrual loans which boosted the margin by about 2 basis points. And that implies the majority of the 3 basis-point overall margin decline was attributable to core factors such as loan and deposit pricing. Average loans increased by $179 million or about 1% annualized compared with the second quarter. The quarter’s results were characterized by high levels of prepayment in addition to the usual slowdown in loans to auto dealers to finance their floor plan inventory. Looking at each of the portfolio categories on n average basis compared to the link quarter, commercial and industrial loans decreased in annualized 1%; excluding floor plan loans, C&I loans actually grew at a 3% annualized base. Commercial real estate loans increased by about 1% annualized. Residential mortgage loans declined $98 million on annualized 5%. We have chosen not to replace runoff in this portfolio in advance of the Hudson City merger as its portfolio is almost entirely comprised of residential mortgages. Consumer loans grew an annualized 8%, reflecting good growth in indirect auto and recreation finance loans. We were pleased to see that the mid-Atlantic was our strongest region for loan growth during the past quarter, averaging about 6% annualized growth while our Metro region which includes New Jersey, averaged 3% growth. Average core consumer deposits which excludes deposits received at M&T’s Cayman Island office and CDs over 250,000, increased an annualized 4% from the second quarter, primarily due to the higher levels of trust deposits I referenced earlier. Average investment securities increased $246 million or 1.7% compared with the second quarter. We are currently in compliance with the liquidity coverage ratio requirement that comes into effect in early -- at the beginning of 2016. Turning to non-interest income, non-interest income or fee income totaled $440 million in the third quarter. The comparable figure in the linked quarter was $497 million which included the $45 million gain on the trade processing sale, I mentioned earlier. Mortgage banking revenues were $84 million in the third quarter compared with $103 million in the prior quarter. Residential mortgage banking revenues declined by $8 million; about half relating to lower gains on sale which came as a result of a 13% decline in mortgage loans originated for sale while the other half came from softer residential servicing revenues. Commercial mortgage banking revenues were down $10 million from the prior quarter as purchases of multifamily commercial mortgages by the GSEs slowed from the first half of the year as they managed to the annual caps imposed by their regulator. Service charges on deposit accounts increased to $107 million, up from $105 million in the second quarter. The increase was balanced between consumer and commercial. Trust income was $114 million in the recent quarter compared with $119 million in the previous quarter. The second quarter figure included $3 million of seasonal tax preparation fees; the remainder of the decline is largely attributable to lower market values of managed assets due to the recent stock market decline. We note that after adjusting for the impact of the trade processing sale, both the gain and the divested revenues total non-interest revenue was up 2% through the first three quarters of 2015 compared with the same period last year. Turning to expenses, expenses continue to be well-controlled. Operating expenses for the third quarter which exclude expenses from the amortization of tangible assets were $650 million, down from $691 million in the linked quarter which of course included the $40 million donation to the M&T Charitable Foundation. On a year-over-year basis, operating expenses declined $8 million or 1%. Sharply lower professional service costs were partially offset by higher employee benefit expenses. As a result, the efficiency ratio which excludes intangible amortization was 57.1% for the third quarter, improved from 58.2% in the second quarter and 58.4% in the year ago quarter. Next, let’s turn to credit. Non-accrual loans were $787 million or 1.15% of total loans at the end of the third quarter, a $10 million or 2 basis-point decline from the end of the second quarter. Net charge-offs for the third quarter were $40 million compared with $21 million in the second quarter. Annualized net charge-offs as a percentage of loans were 24 basis points for the period compared with an unusually low 13 basis points in the previous quarter. Looking back over the past two years, our trend in credit losses has been fairly consistent. Annualized net charge-offs were 19 basis points of total loans for the first three quarters of 2015, unchanged from the first three quarters of 2014. The provision for credit losses was $44 million in the second quarter, exceeding net charge-offs by $4 million. That excess provision brought the allowance for credit losses to $934 million at the end of September and reflects our assessment of a loss content in the loan portfolio. The ratio of allowance to loans was 1.36%, unchanged from the prior quarter. The loan loss allowance as September 30th was seven times 2015’s annualized year-to-date net charge-offs. Finally, loans 90 days past due on which we continue to accrue interest, excluding acquired loans that have been marked to fair value at acquisition were $231 million at the end of the recent quarter. Of these loans, $194 million or 84% are guaranteed by government related entities. Turning to capital, our common equity Tier 1 ratio under the transitional Basel III capital rule currently in effect, was an estimated 10.08% at the end of the recent quarter, up from 9.91% at the end of June. Now turning to the outlook, this past quarter was important as it represents our last quarter before the combination of M&T and Hudson City. We thought it would be helpful to revisit where M&T has been on a standalone basis before we offer our thoughts on the impact from Hudson City. Through the first three quarters, our average loan growth is 4.8%, still running slightly ahead of the 4% projection we gave on the January earnings call, despite a very competitive lending environment. Our outlook on net interest margin remains unchanged consistent with past comments. The pressure on the core margin from loan and deposit pricing remains in the area of about 3 basis points per quarter. Net interest income is up 2% through the first three quarters of ‘15 compared with the same period last year. While an increase in short-term rates would more than offset those margin pressures, should that occur; we’ve learned not to hold our breath waiting for such an event. It’s worth noting that the elevated levels of prepayment fees and interest on non-accrual loans in the past quarter could well return to more normal levels in the fourth quarter. The softness in the mortgage markets especially non-interest income, as noted earlier, adjusting for the trade processing divestures, non-interest revenues were also up 2% over the first three quarters compared to last year’s -- the same period last year. Taken together, 2% growth in both spread revenues and fee revenues illustrates the slow revenue growth environment in which we’re operating. Regarding expenses, we are pleased with our progress towards improving our efficiency ratio over the course of this year. We remain focused on optimizing areas of our expense base as a way of funding the additional investments we want to make toward enhancing our technology infrastructure. It remains our goal to demonstrate continued improvement in the efficiency ratio over time. Credit trends have shown little change. Although the net charge-offs increased this quarter from what was an unsustainably low level in the second quarter, the 19 basis-point charge-off ratio for the year-to-date period has been consistent for some time now and other credit measures are still trending in a positive direction. In all, the slow revenue growth environment has been challenging for banks, although we’ve tracked relatively well versus our peer group. It’s has been our historical practice in this type of environment to focus on managing expenses to produce modest positive operating leverage, such that the growth in the bottom line is a little bit better than the top line. So, let’s turn to Hudson City and the impact from the merger. After a long waiting period, we are pleased that based on our estimates, the economics of the transaction are intact. Our current expectation is that the merger will contribute mid-single-digit accretion to net operating earnings in 2016, slightly lower than our previous estimate. This excludes revenue synergies or changes in business mix that should occur over time. At the same time, we estimate higher accretion to tangible book value per share and higher accretion to regulatory capital than our previous estimates. Those higher upfront economic benefits reflect the impact of changes in market conditions on the value of Hudson City’s assets and liabilities. As such a greater portion of the economics of the transaction will be realized upfront in the opening balance sheet in the form of tangible capital. To the extent this capital can be deployed effectively or returned to shareholders, there could be additional positive impact on future earnings per share. In summary, our key estimates for the transaction are as follows: Mid-single digit accretion in net operating earnings in 2016; immediately accretive to tangible book value per share; immediate accretion to the regulatory capital ratios in the range of 50 to 70 basis points. Our estimated internal rate of return from the transaction is unchanged from our due diligence estimates of approximately 18%. Underlying those estimates are the following assumptions: We expect to close the transaction on November 1st, but don’t anticipate fully converting Hudson City to M&T systems and back-office until sometime near the end of the first quarter of 2016. We still expect to de-lever the Hudson City balance sheet, but the implementation of the liquidity coverage ratio may require us to retain a modest portion of the securities and borrowings as compared with our original projections. When that de-leveraging is completed and inclusive of acquisition accounting, we expect Hudson City to add about $19 billion of loans and $24 billion of assets to M&T’s premerger balance sheet. The retention of securities and borrowings in order to neutralize the impact from Hudson City’s balance sheet on our liquidity coverage ratio position will modestly reduce the net interest margin for the consolidated balance sheet below premerger M&T, but will have little impact on net interest income. Our estimate of merger-related expenses is substantially unchanged from our original projections. When the deal was announced we estimated that we would be able to rationalize approximately 24% of Hudson City’s premerger expense base, net of additions to staff required to build out a commercial banking capabilities within the Hudson City footprint. Given that we’ve added to our existing presence in New Jersey, we believe we can likely exceed our original estimate. Of course as you are aware, our projections are subject to a number of uncertainties in various assumptions regarding national and regional economic growth, changes in the interest rates and credit spread, political events, and other macroeconomic factors which may differ materially from what actually unfolds in the future. Now, let’s open up the call to questions before which Maria will briefly review the instructions.