Earnings Labs

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 20, 2015

$214.66

-1.31%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.51%

1 Week

+2.92%

1 Month

+7.51%

vs S&P

+2.97%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the M&T Bank Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions] It is now pleasure to turn the floor over to Don MacLeod, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Don MacLeod

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Thank you, Lorie, and good morning, everyone. This is Don MacLeod. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in M&T's fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call, both by telephone and through the webcast. If you have not read the earnings release we issued this morning, you may access it along with the financial tables and schedules from our website, www.mtb.com, and by clicking on the Investor Relations link. Also, before we start, I'd like to mention that comments made during this call might contain forward-looking statements relating to the banking industry and to M&T Bank Corporation. M&T encourages participants to refer to our SEC filings, including those found on Forms 8-K, 10-K and 10-Q, for a complete discussion of forward-looking statements. Now I would like to introduce our Chief Financial Officer, René Jones. René Jones: Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. As I noted in this morning’s press release, the past year was one of substantial progress for us. Our results included lower credit costs, as well as notable improvements in our liquidity, capital and overall risk profile. We made excellent progress on our critical initiatives to strengthen M&T’s BSA/AML compliance and overall risk management infrastructure. And while the target investments that we made moderated our return on tangible common equity to a shade below 14% for the year, the -- taking these steps now positions M&T well for the changing -- for the change to banking environment. Our results for the last quarters -- our results for last year’s final quarter were characterized by higher revenues, dampened by a slightly higher tax rate. As we usually do, I'll start by reviewing a few of the highlights from M&T’s fourth quarter and full year results, after which Don and I will be happy to take your questions. Remember that…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Brian Klock of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Good morning, René. Good morning, Don René Jones: Good morning.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Hi, guys. So just two quick questions on the margins, thinking about where the current curve is and your commentary about LCR. So just thinking about the excess liquidity, the accretable yield number. If we take it -- maybe it's a 3.20ish, 3.24 number that we go into next year with, I guess what should we be thinking about as far as what you need to do on an LCR purpose to kind of build up your securities balances, your HQLA? I noticed that your investment securities balances are down about $350 million in the fourth quarter. So, is that something you would do throughout the year? Or is this something that maybe you would wait till there is maybe a better outlook in the long end of the curve? So maybe just talk about what you are thinking about with those LCR actions in 2015. René Jones: Thanks, Brian. I mean, I think that’s relative straightforward. We had a fair amount of purchases in the first three quarters of 2014. We took a pause in the fourth quarter. And I think our plan would kind of be to go back and do the same to sort of finish out the work that we have to do. So my sense is that the first three quarters of '15 will look generally very similar to what we’re doing in '14. And I think beyond that that should bring us well into compliance. I mean, we are in very good shape today. And I think what you will see next year is closing the final gap and then obviously thinking on the liability side beginning to replace debt, that’s maturing and getting into more of a routine cycle.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay. And a follow-up question on capital. I think you are right, thinking about where your TCE and your core capital is, your common equity Tier 1 all fully phased-in are at levels -- at above some of your peers versus when you announced the Hudson City deal. I guess with the CCAR that you just submitted, I guess what are you guys thinking about return of capital and maybe be in a position to ask for a buyback or what level of Tier 1 common would you be comfortable with in order to start returning capital again? René Jones: Well, I think I can respond to in sort of general terms. I mean, so, as you know, we got through one CCAR and we’re pleased with how we fared. We believe and feel very comfortable that we made further enhancements, particularly to the sustainability of the process. So we are pretty pleased with the work we’re doing going in. From a general perspective, in terms of priority now that we have a higher amount of core loss absorbing capital, we’re heavy on the hybrid side. So we’ve not sort of one of the few people that have not yet optimized their hybrid. So that’s something that sort of falls into the first priority for us to figure out how to begin to take those instruments that won’t qualify as core capital or regulatory capital and move those off of our balance sheet. And then as we kind of work through fully implementing out our risk management infrastructure, I think it’s very logical that what you would see overtime, I can’t really talk about the timing, but that we would take what is very, very low payout, total payout ratio now relative to the average and we begin to sort of move that in sync. So for us, at some point in time it’s -- bank maintains its historical position. We tend to generate a lot more capital than others, but I think our plan is to sort of steadily make improvements in getting back to a more efficient space there. Timing, I can’t really talk about.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

So I guess as far as the -- that timing could be something that, would you feel comfortable with the Hudson City merger closing this year, being able to put a capital return into this year's numbers? René Jones: Well, I mean, regardless of any CCAR test and what have you, I mean for us to be buying back shares while we’re entering a transaction just sort of outside of our thought process and our philosophy, our policy, not really our policy but just our behavior. So, that’s not something that we really have ever done.

Brian Klock

Analyst · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay. Makes sense. Thanks for your time. René Jones: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities. René Jones: Hi, Matt. 1

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

Good morning, René. How are you? René Jones: Good.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

Just a couple of questions. One on the trust income line. I know you mentioned that you are expecting some growth in that next year. I guess I'm just curious if you are thinking about potential investment in that business, maybe not inorganic growth, but just further investment in that business along the line of what several other regional banks have done to try to boost fee revenue? René Jones: That’s a good question. I mean, I think right now I often say that when we do transactions that there is the pricing, there is the integration, but then there are the merging of the systems, but then there is longer integration. And the way I think about it is, we are always open to opportunities, but we are very, very heavily focused on continuing to make improvements into our back-office or infrastructure and our investment platforms. We are still really very much in an investment mode in that space. And it’s been very nice to see that the topline revenue growth has consistently grown since the -- what has been 2.5 years since the merger, 3.5 years. And so that’s been positive, but we are still in investment mode. So to the extent that there is now lot of opportunities out there, we are not out there chasing them. But obviously down the road if something were to make sense for us to do, we would probably entertain it.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

So barring an acquisition, it sounds like you are still thinking about sort of mid-to-low single-digit growth in that line item, specifically for 2015. René Jones: Yes, definitely.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. René Jones: And then, what I would say is that in that business topline and bottomline over the longer term are not the same because there is opportunity for leverage, right. And then the way we are thinking about it as well is the fee income aspect of it is very attractive as well.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

Right. Makes sense. Just a question on your C&I business, maybe a little bit on the CRE side of things. What has been your experience the last quarter or two in terms of demand for lines? And some of your competitors have suggested that in 2015 there may be some elevated pricing on C&I lines just as they begin to work through some of the capital implications from some of the regulatory pronouncements, but just curious as to how you are thinking about that heading into 2015? René Jones: I guess, I don’t know if we’re in a different space. I mean, we have been pretty disciplined throughout. And what I can’t talk about next year, but as I look at this quarter, talking to every single region, the one thing that’s become common is that there is consistent competitive pressure. So from time to time when we get together, you will see some regions feel a little bit less pressure than others this and the fourth. As we finish the year everybody was very loudly speaking about the fact that our competitive pressure was relatively intense and probably stronger in the second half of the year than in the first. Generally speaking, the big issue that we are seeing -- one of the big issues that we are seeing across the board is that people are moving out in terms of term, 10-year deal structures on commercial real estate. And what’s interesting about that is it's hard because our metric is pretty pure. So we, sort of, are questioning whether people are really getting the right risk-adjusted pricing for that that added term but generally other than that, no other big changes.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. One final question and I'll go back in the queue. You mentioned appropriately managing your capital structure would include getting rid of or refinancing some of the hybrids. Would you be thinking about refinancing those hybrids in terms of perpetual preferred stock or is there some other product you're thinking about? René Jones: No, we’ve got the appropriate amount of perpetual preferred stock for a balance sheet of our size or balance sheet of our size with, if you were to include Hudson City. So it's just actually excess sitting there.

Matt Burnell

Analyst · Matt Burnell of Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions. René Jones: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities.

Bill Carcache

Analyst · Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities

Thanks. Good morning. Hi, hi René. I guess just in terms of thinking about a range of different potential outcomes, let's just say for the sake of argument that you guys did not receive approval to close on the Hudson City deal. Can you help us understand what would happen to your efficiency ratio over the next few quarters as you would unwind some of what you guys have done in anticipation of closing? It seems like you'd retain the benefit of much of the BSA/AML spending that you've done. But I was hoping maybe you could parse out for us how much of your expense base you'd be able to cut, to the extent that you think about the future without Hudson City being a part of it? René Jones: Yeah. I mean, I’ll start up with saying, we don’t think about it in any different with or without, I mean, the numbers might change but we don’t think about it any differently because our key is sort of make sure that the core of our institution is very healthy. And so as we look at the current environment, I think it's a good reflection of what we’re likely to see as the banking industry going forward and revenue growth is very slow. You saw that we had mid-single-digit loan growth and we had some measures I mentioned of margin compression. And then on the fee side, our mortgage banking is relatively elevated. So it’s hard to see that growing dramatically. So I think you're in a slow revenue growth environment with a lot of healthy institutions competing for a few solid customers. We've been here several times before and part of that equation is looking at sort of the operating leverage. So as we go into -- as…

Bill Carcache

Analyst · Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities

Okay. So is it fair to say that your comments or your outlook, your goal of achieving positive operating leverage in 2015, that's something that you're targeting with regardless of whether the deal closes? René Jones: Yeah. Yes definitely and in fact as I guess I'm thinking about it, I'm not thinking about the deal when I’m saying that.

Bill Carcache

Analyst · Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities

Okay, that's great. Switching gears to margins, just setting aside the effects of excess liquidity that you are parking at the Fed and some of your comments around the LCR actions, could you help us understand what happens to your NIM if rates were to hold at current levels? René Jones: That is the three to four, that is the three to four.

Bill Carcache

Analyst · Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities

Okay. René Jones: I tried to say it in a different way. I mean, I guess, if you would move the LCR out of the way and you use the forwards largely if you believe the forwards, you don’t have much compression just looking at the forwards through to the end of 2015. But our current pace has been three to four and to the extent that we don't see increase in rates that's where it will be.

Bill Carcache

Analyst · Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities

Okay. That's great. And finally, the last one for me is on your effective tax rate. It was a little bit higher this quarter, anything noteworthy there? Can you talk about maybe what was behind that and where we should expect it to settle going forward? René Jones: Yeah. It’s a great topic in the sense that we’ve got so few shares outstanding that our numbers are really sensitive. So it’s like a couple million buck. So no, you really can attribute to any one thing maybe in a period we have lower credits available. But on the whole, I don’t expect any significant change when you look at ‘14 versus ‘15.

Bill Carcache

Analyst · Bill Carcache of Nomura Securities

Got it. Thanks, René. Appreciate it. René Jones: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley.

Ken Zerbe

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley

Great, good morning. René, could you just go back to the comments on CRE, or the CRE growth? I just want to reconcile the comments that you were making about competition and 10-year terms versus the very strong growth you guys had in the quarter? René Jones: Yeah, I mean -- I guess the big thing that I could do is kind of talk about what we saw. So one of the things that I thought was really relatively interesting in particular as we sort of finished the year is that like this quarter, over the last 12 months, our loan growth has been comprised of 5% in the New York City Metro, Philadelphia and New Jersey area and 5% in upstate New York and essentially flat i.e. zero in Pennsylvania and in the sort of Baltimore, Washington area. And you know a lot of the -- there is a sort of a greater abundance, at lease, in our portfolio on the real estate side as you get down to the Washington area. And what we sort of seeing there is that that there appears to be sort of -- I don’t know if it’s an inflection point but there is abundance of office space. You got to remember that the sequestration stuff is still affecting the economy there and then in the defense sector. So it just seems like as we look back over the last 12 months that really the slower growth we’re being seeing there in total and in the real estate side has been affected by the economy whereas here in upstate New York, it's been stronger than it has been quite frankly in the last 30 years. And similar is true down in and around our metro region. Other than that, I mean, the commentary is very consistent across the board. So what you're seeing and we were able to get the growth, the billion dollars of growth that you saw in our loan book 6% while that’s just coming from our core customers. And when we’re winning, it's usually because we have some sort of long-term relationship advantage that allows us to sustain the deal that provide some benefit beyond pricing, particularly, when it comes to smaller community banks. So a lot of pressure that we’re seeing is coming from the smaller community banks but they just don't have the breadth of services. So if you’re getting a larger more mature client, we tend to have a bit of an advantage there.

Ken Zerbe

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley

Got it. Then the growth, the loan growth outlook, I think it was 4% over the next year. Is that predominantly driven by commercial real estate or is that a little more balance between CRE and some of the other categories? René Jones: No. I mean, I think it's very much the same as both across the board, maybe a little greater on the consumer side but it's a smaller portfolio.

Ken Zerbe

Analyst · Ken Zerbe of Morgan Stanley

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian of Bank of America. René Jones: Good morning, Erika.

Erika Najarian

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of America

Good morning. My first question is a follow-up on the margin. René, can you tell us how much of the deposit growth you experienced in the fourth quarter you expect to flow out, and sort of, and timing as well? And to that end, you would still have some excess deposits. Do you expect that to be funding your future HQLA purchases? René Jones: Yeah. So roughly at the fed we had $9 billion in the quarter and at the end of the quarter it was already down to six. So three of the four rise was sort of off our balance sheet by the end of the year. So that gives you some sense of the normalization there.

Erika Najarian

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of America

And that would be it? René Jones: It’s hard to say, depending on what the client needs are but my sense is that the year-end numbers are better number than what you saw during the quarter, that 5 billion or 6 billion is a better number. And then in terms of the LCR, we’ll be back into the market with unsecured fundings primarily. And we really never, even though the deposits that we’re talking about on the trust side, definitely qualifying the liquidity coverage ratio. We kind of in our internal view, sort of cap the amount that we use because of the uncertainty around the availability of those deposits. So most of the LCR purchase would be funded at the wholesale market.

Erika Najarian

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of America

Got it. And a follow-up question. We heard you loud and clear that you expect progress throughout 2015 on the 59% efficiency ratio, and heard you loud and clear on how you could do that on the expense side. I'm wondering if this the 59% -- the progress from 59% can happen even if nothing happens to the curve? René Jones: I think, I said yes, I think, yes, we will continue. I just can’t tell you how much but that’s what our efforts will be to do. And quite frankly, the tougher the revenue environment is out there, the more time you actually have to focus internally on your operations. We've done it before so it tends to be something that we're pretty good at, so yes.

Erika Najarian

Analyst · Erika Najarian of Bank of America

Thank you. That was clear. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets.

Bob Ramsey

Analyst · Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, René. I had just a couple questions about fee income. On the mortgage banking side, could you split what of the income was origination versus servicing in the quarter? René Jones: Yes, I probably can. Give me a minute. Someone will do that, so you can hear all the shuffling of paper running around.

Bob Ramsey

Analyst · Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets

Thanks. I know you had noticed that the uptake in service in year-over-year with the acquisition? Maybe while you dig that up I’ll ask another question about deposit fees. They were down I guess, quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year this quarter. I know there has been a lot of focus industry wide on deposit fees. Just curious, there was anything unusual this quarter or how you're thinking about the deposit fee growth in 2015, whether it will be flat or even possibly lower than ‘14? René Jones: Yeah. We had some discussion about that. I mean, I personally think it was a little unusual. Last year they were down slightly but I think that was across the board in the industry with behavior changes but our volume of transactions was lower. We had some really nice -- very large storm in Buffalo but still with the year end and the holiday spend I was a little bit surprised about the nature of the decline. Having said that, it was both on the consumer and the commercial side. So I think we’ll have to wait and see what underlying customer behavior is. So we do this, I mean, I guess on the residential side, -- I’m getting all this. So I mean, roughly we had about $70 million of our mortgage banking income was on the retail side and another $23 million was on the commercial side and of the $70 million, about $56 was on servicing.

Bob Ramsey

Analyst · Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then if I circle back around, I know you were asked about capital a couple ways. I might not have caught it. I know you said that that M&T has a very low payout ratio relative to average? I was just curious if you were speaking about total payout or dividend and I think historically you all have always had sort of a below average dividend payout ratio, but in an ideal world when you do start to look to take the payout up? Could you just sort of remind us how you think about dividend payout and where you'd like it to be? René Jones: Yeah. I mean, I think, first of all, actually, I was talking about the total payout ratio, when I look across the industry.

Bob Ramsey

Analyst · Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets

Okay. René Jones: And I think, you're right, we’ve always been historically lower. We think, we felt, always felt that was a more prudent decision and of course, we didn't cut the dividend. So it sort of hovered around 30%, which is not atypical for we've been. I think what is atypical is the long period of actually not having any sort of increase in that dividend. But as a general philosophy, I don't know that it's going to be very different. We think that it matters regardless sort of what the rules are currently that in order to have more flexibility, it probably makes sense. At a point in time when you’re distributing the normalized percentage of your earnings that making sure that a decent percentage of that or a large of that is in repurchases is probably where we would end up on the long run. I don’t know if that tells you much, Bob.

Bob Ramsey

Analyst · Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets

So, I think it does. I think if I understand you correctly, the dividend payout is in the right ballpark, I mean, maybe there is a little bit of room, but it's in the right ballpark and really the opportunity when the time comes is to be more active on the repurchase front. René Jones: Yeah. I think that’s right and I think, if you just don’t get yourself into the guidance space for a minute, outside what we typically would do in this new environment. I think, really what it says is that you got to, to the extent that there is there is no hard limit, but to the extent that you are over 30, you should be very, very comfortable with your risk management platform and your ability to monitor and to see risks, identify risks. And so a lot of the way we think about it is that over the last year and then in the coming year, we continue to make improvements. So we’ll talk a lot about that during the course of the year in those areas and I think that may end up giving us more flexibility as those new structures mature.

Bob Ramsey

Analyst · Bob Ramsey of FBR Capital Markets

Okay. Great. Thank you, René. René Jones: Yeah. Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin of Jefferies.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Hey. Good morning, René. Hey, René, coming back to the net interest income, just wondering so with the normalization of those trust deposits? Can you just help us understand what the starting point is for the NIM when you reset that or assume that the 3.10% is kind of not so much a low point, but lower than you'd expect to start the year with that normalization? René Jones: Well, had the balances at the fed remained at $5 billion where they were in the previous quarter. The net interest margin would have been -- printed net interest margin would have been 13 basis points higher than the 3.10%, so 3.23%. And we've not gotten back, the whole $4 billion as of the end of the year. We got back three quarter of that, right. So you can pretty very much use those numbers to kind of figure it out.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Right. Okay. So then I just, I think, I'm trying to understand then, when you think about net interest income dollars, we have to think about the balance sheet likely to be smaller, but a higher starting point for the NIM and then you get the 3 to 4 core plus LCR? René Jones: If there is no change in the rate environment, yes.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Okay. René Jones: If there -- if the rate environment pans out like the forward curve say, you just get a total of probably something like 3 to 4 just for the LCR or some like that, right.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Right. So roughly speaking, no change, you get 6 to 8 and then you try to offset that with balance sheet growth? So, I guess, where brings it back to is like, off of the $2.7 billion of NII this year, do you think you can grow NII this year kind of like you were talking about on the fee side? René Jones: It’s our job to try. But it’s a tough revenue environment.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Got it. Okay. And then on the cost side, René, just a similar question coming back to the, can you remind us just how much of the consulting costs are in the current $680 million? René Jones: No. I don’t have that number and I think, the best place to get it is off of the -- where is it comes on the [190] [ph]?

Don MacLeod

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Yeah. It will, components of that will be reflects in [190] [ph] when it comes out.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Okay. Because I think the question is just -- similar question, René, just on the cost side, you guys have been at the $680 million type level, plus or excluding the first quarter seasonal computation bump? And I think we're just trying to understand the moving parts between when you mentioned finally starting to rationalize some of that consulting cost versus the magnitude of those incremental investments? So can we finally start to see that other line start to net down or total expenses start to net down as that compliance -- as that consulting cost come -- starts to come in? René Jones: Yeah. I think that’s exactly how we think about it, I am not giving you a number, a little less prepared than I should be, because at the same sort of number that’s it’s been out there for a long time that you can actually see in the regulatory reports. But that’s exactly how we think about it and as each of the phases of the work streams, sort of work themselves down, there's a lot of excess professional services that are no longer necessary because they are covered by the existing staffing base that you’ll see come down. And it might not be all of that because we are continuing to invest in technology, in some of those areas as well. But there should be a noticeable amount by the time we get towards the end of the year.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Got it. René Jones: We haven’t seen it before that, but yes.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Understood. And the last point on that is, can you just give us an update just in general terms of where you are on those workstreams, in terms of the seven major kind of promises you have related to getting compliance and whatnot? Like, how many have we made through and are we at a point where you're actually now over the hump, so to speak? René Jones: Yeah. I mean, generally, we would characterize ourselves as on track with every single workstream that we have. And I think probably one of the most meaningful things that’s out there is -- think about this is, as by the time we get ourselves to March 31st for the first quarter, we will have had implemented our new customer risk rating system and it will have actually been running and in effect for a full year. And so that's great because through the course of ‘14m as we’ve run that we've been able to get some of the, any kinks out of the system and feel really good that as we onboard new customers that we’ve got a good stable system to do that. So that I think is a real key milestone. I think we've got to -- we use the term remediate our existing customer base. We’ve got to do the entire customer base, 5 million accounts, 3.5 million households or 3.7 million households and we've gotten through the majority of the high-risk customers and we are on schedule with that work. And so no blips in sight there. And of course the remaining group of moderate and lows, we will get through over time right. But that will take some time but we are on track. Transaction review is well underway. And I think I started talking about probably in the third quarter of last year and on schedule for completion. And then we have -- really are pleased with the fact that we now have controls in monitoring and management reporting that is under -- is being operated in every single business unit. And that allows us to sort of escalate any customers’ issues that are there. So relative to where we were before, we have made substantial progress. The capabilities that we have today versus where we were, say two years ago are vastly different. And so we feel very, very good about that progress.

Ken Usdin

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Thanks, René.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy of Sterne, Agee.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Sterne, Agee

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Out of the $11 billion of consumer loans, could you just remind us how much is auto? And could you provide possibly any commentary around competition and the ability for growth in that portfolio in’15? René Jones: Yeah. So if you look at the portfolio, it's about just under $11 billion. And in terms of average balances, the biggest portfolio there is a home equity line of credit which is $5.8 billion and our auto portfolio is just under $2 billion and that's rounded out with the next biggest thing is sort of…

Don MacLeod

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Sterne, Agee

Primarily recreation finance. René Jones: …yeah recreation finance and other loans, other personal loans that are about $3 billion. So, I mean, I think with the consumer loans, those things tend to move in a very predictable pattern. We've seen pretty steady growth over the quarter so if you look for example, we said 7% over this past quarter. It was 7% year-over-year in terms of the fourth quarter, over fourth quarter. So, I would expect that to continue at that pace and maybe actually be slightly higher based on what we are seeing with the trends. We are not changing our credit profile in that space relatively conservatives.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Sterne, Agee

And then just as a follow-up. This morning, I took a look at the presentation you used in Boston last November and it mentioned stronger competition from bank and unregulated bank lenders. Could you talk about where the unregulated bank lenders are showing up? Has there been any impact so far and what has been your response? And then are any of the initiatives that we are seeing in the expense line, will they make M&T more competitive going forward? René Jones: Remember that second question. We are seeing it mostly in Commercial Real Estate. So you get life companies that have been in the game for quite some time now looking for yield and that’s made things pretty competitive. You’ve also had conduits back in that space. And then the thing that's little different this cycle is obviously you’ve got non-bank lenders in the form of private equity. And I think in particular spaces like leverage lending and some spaces like that where the regulation has been tightened up and there is higher scrutiny. Also different capital rules, I think, a number of private equity firms have decided to sort of offer their own credit. And as I mentioned before, we see that also because in Wilmington, we may provide the trustee services for those businesses. So that's one place where we've actually seen quite a bit of activity. What’s interestingly enough, that actually is a trend here in the U.S., but it's also a trend overseas in London, you are seeing the same types of activity. I think it's all driven by the higher forms of regulation. And then second part of your question was about whether we had any advantage from the work that we're doing. You want to ask that again? Did I get that right?

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Sterne, Agee

That is correct. You're investing a lot. We see it in the expense line. And where is the upside as it relates to the competitive landscape that you just talk about, if any? René Jones: Yeah. I mean, I think, look, if I look at what we’re doing and I just, I look at clearly BSA/AML program, clearly the risk management and compliance updates and then definitely on the technology side as well, every one of those investments is a leverageable investment. And so one of the reasons why we -- or a number of reasons, but one of the reasons why we were so focused on doing this fast is because to the extent that you get behind you, you can sort of begin to participate, mature those things right and then use them as you grow the institution. So I can’t give you timing, but clearly we think of all of those investments and the investments that we will make in 2015 and that like. I think that’s really important.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst · Terry McEvoy of Sterne, Agee

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

One final question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy of RBC.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC

Hi, René. René Jones: Hi, Gerard.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC

I apologize. I've been jumping on and off your call. But obviously, your Basel III Tier 1 common ratio is very strong today at about 9.6%, well above the required numbers a bank your size needs to have, about 7%. Recognizing you've got to carry more than that because of CCAR, looking longer-term, when you go through CCAR you guys come out real well. Where do you want to manage that number to in terms of once you get the Hudson City deal closed and you guys are back on a normal track? René Jones: Yeah. I think, I sort of implied that in my comments earlier Gerard. I think the way I think about it is this is a process, right, and it’s a process because we’re going through a period of great change. So we took our efforts. We didn't issue shares during the crisis. We then built our capital up organically to where it is today. We made our investments our different platforms, particularly in the CCAR and risk management. We fared well in the CCAR test, right. And then as we kind of go into this test, it’s an evolution. So my sense is that from a pure capital perspective, you see in a test there is not a need given our risk profile to have higher capital levels. But I think the rest of that process is to make sure that our risk management process is to sort of keep monitoring that are very, very sustainable. That’s the sort of phase we’re in now. And then as we kind of check that box, I think our job is to get back to normal distributions and get the capital out there back to the investors. I think that issue becomes exacerbated were we to consummate the Hudson city deal, because it essentially is a portfolio that under us would be much, much smaller, right, which then suggests it throws off a lot of equity and the only way you create value is to get that excess equity back to the shareholders over time.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC

I'm sorry. Go ahead. René Jones: No, you go ahead.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC

No, because my thought was bringing the capital ratios down for you and many of your peers, they seem to be so high and the ROEs for everybody are pretty weak. And so to get these stated ROEs back up to 12%, 13%, the Es need to come down. And I didn't know if longer term you guys would be comfortable with an 8.5% Tier 1 common ratio or is that just too low? And then as an add-on to that, there is some talk about raising the asset size of CCAR banks. And if those asset sizes are raised to a level well above yours, assuming the Hudson City deal closes again, would you consider even a lower ratio? Because you guys historically manage your capital so well, now it seems like you've got so much extra capital. René Jones: I don't think we’re thinking about it that way right now, Gerard. I think that -- I don't think capital levels -- I wouldn’t think about capital levels coming down from where they are today. I think that they are healthy, but they're probably for the industry where they were continued to be. When I look beyond that and I look into our portfolio and earlier I made some comments about sort of about return on tangible assets. We typically are in the top quartile of our peer groups and we’re not right. And so I see a fair amount of opportunity in trying to, now that we’re under all the new rules and under all the new processes trying to figure out how to do them more efficiently and to optimize the spending that we've had in this big period of investment. And so really what I'm thinking about is making sure that we can take that return on tangible assets and move it back into sort of number the top three positions amongst our peers. And I think we see ways to do that, and so that's about focusing our operations. I think over the course of the next couple of submissions two things will happen. One, we will get to a much more normalized payout ratio, because you will gone through the test and you will have a lot of evidence that suggests that not only on your models but under the national models, people have a good sense of what your profile is. Down that road, I mean the way you would end up releasing capital from where you are today is probably you would have to show that you're having lower and lower risk profile under stress and that may happen. But that's really not a topic that I think is out there today.

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst · RBC

I appreciate the color. Thank you. René Jones: Sure.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call to Don MacLeod for any additional or closing remarks.

Don MacLeod

Analyst · Ken Usdin of Jefferies

Again, thank you all for participating today. And as always, if clarification of any of the items on the call or news release is necessary, please contact our Investor Relations Department at 716-842-5138. Thank you, and good bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for participating in M&T Bank's fourth quarter 2014 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.