Amy Hood
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. This quarter, revenue was $30.1 billion, up 17% and 15% in constant currency. Gross margin dollars increased 19% and 16% in constant currency. Operating income increased 30% and 24% in constant currency. Earnings per share was $1.13, increasing 7% and 3% in constant currency. As a reminder, FY17 included a $1.8 billion tax benefit related to previously non-deductible phone losses. In our largest quarter of the year, our sales teams and partners delivered exceptional commercial results. We saw strong performance in most of our geographic regions against a backdrop of favorable macroeconomic conditions and positive IT spending trends. Customer commitment to our cloud platform continues to increase. In FY18, we closed a record number of multi-million-dollar commercial cloud agreements and more than doubled the number of $10 million-plus Azure agreements. Our annuity mix increased 3 points year-over-year to 89%. As a result, commercial bookings increased 18% even with a strong prior year comparable. Commercial unearned revenue was $29 billion, growing 23% and 21% in constant currency, significantly higher than anticipated due to stronger than expected cloud billings. Our commercial cloud revenue was $6.9 billion, growing 53% and 50% in constant currency with strong performance across the U.S., Western Europe, and the UK. Commercial cloud gross margin percentage increased 6 points to 58%. In line with our commitment at the beginning of the year, we improved the gross margin percentage in each cloud service, with Azure seeing the most significant improvement. Our company gross margin percentage was 68%, ahead of our expectations, and up 1 point year-over-year from improvement in our More Personal Computing segment, driven by Surface. FX increased revenue growth by 2 points, 1 point lower than anticipated, due to a stronger U.S. dollar. At the segment level, FX had a positive impact of 3 points on Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud and 1 point on More Personal Computing revenue. The FX impact to COGS was immaterial. This quarter, operating expenses grew 9% and 8% in constant currency, above our expectations due to revenue driven expense, such as sales compensation given the strength of the quarter, and severance expense, primarily in our sales organizations, offset by FX favorability. Strong revenue growth, improved device gross margin percentage, and continued targeted investment in cloud engineering, cloud sales capacity, and LinkedIn created operating income leverage. This quarter, operating income increased again, up 3 points year-over-year. Now, to our segment results. Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes was $9.7 billion, increasing 13% and 10% in constant currency, in line with our expectations even with the headwinds from a stronger dollar and a higher than anticipated mix of cloud billings in our Office commercial and Dynamics businesses during the quarter. As a reminder, under ASC 606, cloud revenue is ratably recognized while annuity on-premises revenue has a component of upfront recognition. A higher mix of cloud billings is reflected in more unearned revenue and less in-period recognition in a quarter. Office commercial revenue increased 10% and 8% in constant currency. Office 365 commercial revenue grew 38% and 35% in constant currency and Office 365 commercial seats grew 29%. We continued to see healthy installed base growth and ARPU expansion from customer adoption of premium workloads in E3 and E5. Office consumer revenue increased 8% and 6% in constant currency, driven by recurring subscription revenue and growth in the subscriber base, now at 31.4 million. Our Dynamics business grew 11% and 8% in constant currency, with double digit billings growth. Dynamics 365 grew 61% and 56% in constant currency. LinkedIn revenue grew 37% and 34% in constant currency with strong execution across all businesses. As Satya highlighted, engagement continued to accelerate, and we also saw record levels of job postings, benefitting from a robust U.S. job market. Segment gross margin dollars grew 13% and 10% in constant currency. Gross margin percentage was relatively unchanged year-over-year even as cloud mix increased, driven by margin expansion in Office 365 and LinkedIn. Operating expenses increased 7% as we continued to invest in LinkedIn, cloud engineering, and commercial sales capacity. Operating income increased 20% and 13% in constant currency. Revenue from the Intelligent Cloud segment was $9.6 billion, increasing 23% and 20% in constant currency, with better than expected results in both our on-premises and Azure businesses. Server products and cloud services revenue increased 26% and 24% in constant currency, driven by continued strong Azure revenue growth of 89% and 85% in constant currency. Azure per user services performed ahead of expectations with our Enterprise Mobility installed base growing 55% year-over-year to over 82 million. Our on-premises server business grew 8% and 6% in constant currency, with double digit growth in premium server products revenue and healthy renewals, benefiting from the significant value customers see in our hybrid solutions. Enterprise Services revenue grew 8% and 7% in constant currency, as growth in Premier Support Services and Microsoft Consulting Services was partially offset by a decline in custom support agreements for Windows Server 2003. Segment gross margin dollars increased 23% and 20% in constant currency. Gross margin percentage was relatively unchanged as material improvement in the Azure gross margin percentage was offset by a growing mix of Azure IaaS and PaaS revenue. Operating expenses increased 11% with ongoing investments in cloud engineering and sales capacity to support top-line growth. Operating income grew 34%, up 30% in constant currency. Finally, More Personal Computing. Revenue was $10.8 billion, up 17% and 16% in constant currency, with better than expected results in Windows commercial, OEM Pro, and Surface. In the commercial space, we saw an accelerating pace of Windows 10 enterprise deployments this quarter. Customer demand for modern and secure hardware and stronger than expected PC growth in geographies where Pro mix is high contributed to OEM revenue growth of 14%, ahead of the overall commercial market. Windows commercial products and cloud services grew 23% and 19% in constant currency, driven by double digit billings growth as well as a higher mix of in-quarter recognition from multi-year agreements. In consumer, OEM Non-Pro revenue declined 3%, slightly below the consumer PC market, driven by continued pressure in entry-level price category, even as we continued to take share in the premium category. Inventory levels were within the normal range. Search revenue ex-TAC increased17% and 16% in constant currency driven by enhancements to our advertising platform and Bing volume growth across both U.S/ and international markets. Surface revenue increased 25% and 21% in constant currency, driven by strong performance of the latest editions in the portfolio against a low prior year comparable. In Gaming, revenue grew 39% and 38% in constant currency. Xbox software and services grew 36% and 35% in constant currency, mainly from a third-party title. Xbox Live monthly active users increased 8% to 57 million. Segment gross margin dollars grew 21% and 18% in constant currency. Gross margin percentage increased driven by new Surface editions, offset by sales mix to lower margin businesses. Operating expenses grew 9% and 8% in constant currency, driven by seasonality changes in advertising spend versus the prior year and investments in engineering across Search and AI. Operating income grew 38% and 32% in constant currency. Now, back to total Company results. Capital expenditures including finance leases were $4.1 billion and increased on a sequential basis, in line with expectations. Cash paid for property, plant, and equipment was $4 billion, reflecting investments to support growth in our cloud business as well as a $250 million real estate acquisition. Free cash flow was $7.4 billion and down 15% year-over-year, reflecting higher capital expenditures in support of our cloud business. Cash flow from operations grew 4% year-over-year and included tax payments related to the adoption of ASC 606 and TCJA, as well as an earlier start to the hardware inventory build for holiday than in the prior year. Excluding the impact of these items, operating cash flow grew approximately 13%, driven by strong cloud billings and collections. Other income and expense was approximately $300 million, lower than expected due to FX re-measurement. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 18%, higher than anticipated due to the geographic mix of our revenue. And finally, we returned $5.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, an increase of 16%. Our Q4 share repurchase was $2.1 billion, up 31% year-over-year, but down sequentially, given the suspension of share repurchase activity in advance of the announced GitHub acquisition. Now, let’s move to the outlook. My commentary, for both the full year and next quarter, does not include any impact from GitHub which we still expect to close by the end of the calendar year. Overall, the key drivers and trends of our business for the next fiscal year remain largely unchanged from April and assume a consistent macro environment. First, on FX. Assuming that rates remain stable, we expect no impact to full year revenue growth, with any FX benefit in H1 offset in H2. FX should decrease COGS and operating expense growth by 1 point. Second, our commercial business. Given corporate IT spend optimism, an increasing demand for cloud services, our strong competitive product position, and consistent sales execution, we expect another year of strong revenue growth and higher annuity mix across our commercial business. As customer commitment to our cloud increases, we are seeing larger and longer term agreements. As a result, we may see increased quarterly volatility in commercial bookings growth and commercial unearned revenue. Productivity and Business Processes should continue to grow double digits driven by Office 365, Dynamics 365, and LinkedIn. Customer demand for our hybrid offerings should drive high-teens growth in our server products and cloud services revenue KPI. And in Azure specifically, we expect an increasing mix of IaaS and PaaS consumption-based revenue. In Windows, we expect strong business fundamentals in our OEM Pro and Windows commercial businesses, though the rates of revenue growth will slow through the year against a strong FY18 comparable. Third, commercial cloud gross margin percentage. We expect continued improvement in each commercial cloud service, as well as in the overall commercial cloud gross margin percentage. The rate of improvement will moderate relative to FY18 as revenue mix continues to shift to Azure IaaS and PaaS consumption-based services, and we realize less year-over-year improvement in our per-user services. We will continue to increase our investments in CapEx to meet the growing demand for our cloud services, although we do expect the growth rate for the year to moderate. Next, operating expenses. Given our strong execution, we will continue to invest in the trends and growing markets we believe are fundamental to long-term shareholder value creation. Investment in commercial cloud, LinkedIn, gaming, and AI should result in operating expense growth of roughly 7%. Even with these strategic investments and the continued shift to our cloud businesses, we expect operating margin to be up slightly year-over-year. Other income and expense should be slightly negative, in line with prior guidance, and with quarterly variability primarily due to changes in FX remeasurement, interest rates, and valuation changes with the adoption of the new accounting rules for financial investments. And finally, tax rate. We’ve refined our estimates of the impacts from TCJA, the mix of service versus license revenue, and the geographic mix of revenue and now expect our FY19 effective tax rate to be roughly 17% with quarterly variability. Now, to the outlook for our first quarter. First, FX. Assuming current rates remain stable, we expect FX to increase revenue growth by approximately 1 point and decrease COGS and operating expenses by 1 point. Second, our commercial business. We expect another healthy quarter with commercial unearned revenue down approximately 10% sequentially, in line with historic seasonality. Commercial cloud gross margin percentage will improve slightly on a sequential basis. Third, we expect another quarter of sequential growth in capital expenditures as we continue to support growing, global customer demand. Now to the segment guidance. In Productivity and Business Processes, we expect revenue between $9.25 billion and $9.45 billion, driven by double digit growth in Office Commercial and Dynamics. LinkedIn revenue growth should remain high on a stronger prior year comparable. In Intelligent Cloud, we expect revenue between $8.15 billion and $8.35 billion. Azure revenue growth should reflect a balance of continued strength in our IaaS and PaaS consumption-based services and a moderating rate of growth in our per-user services. In More Personal Computing, we expect revenue between $9.95 billion to $10.25 billion. In OEM Pro, we expect revenue growth in line with the commercial PC market. And in OEM non-Pro, we expect similar dynamics as seen in Q4. In Surface, we continue to expect strong performance from our latest editions, including the new Surface Go, to drive growth similar to Q1 of the prior year. Search ex-TAC should see another quarter of mid-teens growth with consistent execution against rate and volume growth opportunities. In Gaming, we expect mid-teens revenue growth with continued strong user engagement on our platform. The software and services growth rate will moderate due to strong third-party titles launched a year ago. We expect COGS of $9.5 billion to $9.7 billion and operating expenses of $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion. Other income and expense is expected to be approximately negative $100 million. And finally, we expect our Q1 effective tax rate to be slightly lower than our full year rate due to the volume of equity vests that take place during our first quarter. Mike, let’s go to Q&A.