Amy Hood
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. Our second quarter revenue was $28.9 billion, up 12% and 11% in constant currency, with better than expected performance across all segments. Gross margin increased 12%. Operating income increased 10%. This quarter, we incurred a tax charge of $13.8 billion related to the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Excluding that, earnings per share was $0.96, increasing 20%. We achieved another quarter of double-digit top and bottom line growth, as we continued to realize the impact of strategic growth investments, along with strong sales execution. At a company level, LinkedIn contributed approximately 4 points of revenue growth and 5 points of gross margin growth, with minimal impact on operating income growth. Excluding the cost of amortization of acquired intangibles, LinkedIn contributed a $111 million to operating income and continues to be accretive to EPS this fiscal year, ahead of our original expectations. Across most geographies, our results were in line with overall, improving macroeconomic trends. Large markets including the U.S., Western Europe and France performed better than expected, driven by commercial cloud momentum. Our sales teams and channel partners delivered another quarter of outstanding commercial results even as we continue to work through our sales reorganization from July. Our commercial revenue annuity mix improved by 3 points year-over-year to 86% with healthy renewal rates. Commercial bookings increased 7% and 4% in constant currency, even with a 20% smaller underlying expiration base. Commercial unearned revenue came in slightly higher than expected, at more than $20.2 billion, from growth in multiyear customer commitments to Azure. Commercial cloud revenue was $5.3 billion, growing 56% year-over-year, with broad-based growth across geographic markets and customer segments. Gross margin increased by 7 points to 55%, in line with seasonal trends. We improved gross margin percentage in each cloud service, and Azure again saw the most significant margin improvement this quarter. Company gross margin was 62% and flat year-over-year. Sales mix of higher margin products and services, including better than expected performance from Windows Server and Windows OEM Pro, combined with improving cloud margins offset the impact of the growing mix of cloud revenue, LinkedIn amortization cost, and device launches. The FX impact on company and segment revenue growth was in line with expectations. The weaker U.S. dollar increased revenue growth by less than 1 point. FX had only 1 point of impact on operating expense growth, less than expected. This quarter, operating expenses grew 14% and 13% in constant currency, with 10 points of growth from LinkedIn, including $154 million of amortization expense. We continued to increase investments in cloud engineering, AI and sales capacity to drive future growth. Now to the segment results. Productivity and Business Processes revenue grew 25% and 24% in constant currency to $9 billion, slightly better than expected, fueled by LinkedIn revenue acceleration. LinkedIn contributed 15 points of growth. Office Commercial revenue grew double-digits again this quarter, increasing 10% year-over-year. Office 365 commercial revenue increased 41% from installed base growth across all customer segments, and ARPU expansion from continued customer migration to higher value offers in the E3 and E5 workloads. Office 365 commercial seats grew 30% in line with the expected trend, given the increasing size of the base. Office Consumer revenue increased 12% and 11% in constant currency, driven by Office 365 recurring subscription revenue and growth in our subscriber base, now at 29.2 million. Our Dynamics business grew 10% and 9% in constant currency, driven by Dynamics 365 revenue growth of 67% and 68% in constant currency. LinkedIn revenue for the quarter was better than expected, at $1.3 billion, driven by strong sales execution across all LinkedIn services. We saw continued strength in user engagement, customer acquisition, renewals, and upsell performance. Segment gross margin dollars increased 24% and 23% in constant currency, with 14 points of contribution from LinkedIn, including the impact of $222 million of amortization expense. Gross margin percentage decreased slightly due to the impact of LinkedIn related amortization expense and the increased mix of cloud services. Operating expenses grew 41%, 39% in constant currency, with 33 points of contribution from LinkedIn, including $154 million of amortization expense. Excluding LinkedIn, operating expenses increased on cloud engineering and sales capacity investments. Operating income increased 9% and 10% in constant currency, with only 2 points of negative impact from LinkedIn. The Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $7.8 billion of revenue, growing 15%, with better than expected performance driven by hybrid cloud. Server products and cloud services revenue grew 18% with another quarter of double-digit annuity revenue growth. Azure revenue growth accelerated to 98%, with Azure premium services revenue growing triple-digits for the 14th consecutive quarter. Enterprise Services revenue grew 5%, and 3% in constant currency, as growth in Premier Support Services and Microsoft Consulting Services was partially offset by declines in custom support agreements for Windows Server 2003. Segment gross margin dollars grew 13%, and gross margin percentage declined slightly, as the impact of increasing cloud revenue mix was mostly offset by material improvement in Azure gross margin. Operating expenses grew 3% and 2% in constant currency from ongoing investments in sales capacity and cloud engineering. Operating income increased 24%. In More Personal Computing, revenue was $12.2 billion, up 2%, with better than expected results driven by Windows and Search. Excluding phone, revenue grew 4%. Our Windows OEM business grew 4% this quarter, better than we expected. OEM Pro revenue reflects a stronger than anticipated commercial PC market bolstered by improved macro conditions and continued healthy enterprise Windows 10 deployments. We benefitted as well from a higher mix of premium licenses and the timing of license purchases. OEM Non-Pro revenue was down 5 points, below the stabilizing consumer PC market. We continued to see growth in the premium category in line with the market, but heightened price competition on entry-level devices contributed to lower volumes. Inventory levels remained in the normal range. Windows commercial products and cloud services declined 4% and 5% in constant currency, mainly due to the impact of a large deal in the prior year. Search revenue ex-TAC grew 15% from higher revenue per search driven by continued optimization of our advertising platform, and search volume growth in both the U.S. and international markets. Surface revenue grew 1%, roughly flat in constant currency, as we continued to transition our portfolio towards Surface Laptop, Pro with LTE and the new Surface Book 2. This holiday quarter, Gaming revenue grew 8%, mainly driven by hardware revenue growth of 14%, 13% in constant currency, from the launch of our premium console, the Xbox One X. Xbox software and services revenue growth was 4%, with continued monetization growth partially offset by prior year first party AAA title launches. Segment gross margin dollars were roughly flat year-over-year, with the decline in Gaming offset by growth in Search and Surface. Segment gross margin percentage declined, as expected with the console launch. Operating expenses increased 2%, and 1% in constant currency, from growth in engineering investments in Search, AI and Gaming that were partially offset by declines in Windows marketing and phone expenses. Operating income declined 2%. As a reminder, Q2 was the last quarter of phone comparability given the sale of the feature phone business last year. Now back to the overall company results. As expected, our capital expenditures, including finance leases, increased sequentially to $3.3 billion due to higher levels of customer demand and usage for our cloud services. Cash paid for property and equipment was $2.6 billion. Free cash flow generation - free cash flow grew this quarter 23% driven by operating cash flow growth of 25%. Free cash flow increased from higher customer collections following strong billings growth, working capital improvements in the hardware business and contribution from LinkedIn. Other income and expenses was $490 million this quarter, more than planned, due to higher interest income. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate this quarter was 18%, lower than anticipated, driven by an audit settlement as well as the normal variability between service and license revenue mix, geographic revenue mix, and the timing of equity vests. We returned $5 billion to shareholders in share repurchases and dividends. Now let's turn to next quarter's outlook. Assuming rates - assuming current rates remain stable, we expect FX to increase revenue growth by 2 points, COGS by 1 point and operating expenses by 1 point. With positive IT spend signals, a strengthening commercial PC market and growing customer demand for hybrid cloud services, we expect our commercial business to remain strong, as we drive annuity growth, expand our installed base and execute well on renewals. We expect commercial unearned revenue to be down approximately 2% to 3% sequentially, in line with historic seasonality. And our Q3 expiry base will return to year-over-year growth, impacting commercial bookings growth. Third, CapEx. We will increase our capital expenditures to support increasing demand and capacity requirements. On an accrual dollar basis, we expect a sequential dollar increase next quarter. We expect year-over-year improvement in overall commercial cloud gross margin as Azure margin improvement continues to offset an increasing mix of Azure revenue. In Productivity and Business Processes, we expect revenue between $8.6 billion and $8.8 billion. Both Office commercial and consumer revenue growth will be driven by Office 365, with growth rates for each consistent with Q2. We expect double-digit Dynamics revenue growth from the shift to Dynamics 365. LinkedIn should deliver approximately $1.2 billion, growing more than 20%. In Intelligent Cloud, we expect revenue between $7.55 billion and $7.75 billion, with strong double-digit revenue growth in server products and cloud services. In Enterprise Services, we expect a revenue growth rate similar to Q2, as growth in Premier support should offset the decline in Windows 2003 custom support agreements. In More Personal Computing, we expect revenue between $9.1 billion and $9.4 billion. In Windows, we expect OEM revenue to be largely in line with the total PC market. Both OEM Pro revenue and Non-Pro revenue should be impacted by similar dynamics seen in Q2. Now to Devices, Surface revenue should grow year-over-year from continued launch momentum from the latest Surface Pro, Book and Laptop, but decline sequentially consistent with holiday seasonality. In Search ex-TAC, we expect a similar strong rate of revenue growth to Q2. In Gaming, we expect revenue growth similar to last quarter, but with a revenue-mix shift to software and services and continued year-over-year growth of our Xbox Live user-base. We expect COGS between $9 billion and $9.2 billion, including 1 point of FX headwind. We expect operating expenses of $9.1 billion to $9.2 billion, including 1 point of FX headwind. Given the opportunity ahead of us and our execution to date, we will continue to invest in intelligent cloud, intelligent edge, AI and our sales teams to drive sustainable top-line growth. Other income and expense should be approximately $350 million as we continue to take gains in our equities portfolio and earn dividend and interest income. This is lower than we previously expected, reflecting the impact of rising interest rates on our fixed income portfolio. Now, a few comments on the fiscal year. First, given our outperformance in the first half of the year, we are now ahead of our previous expectation for full-year gross margin. We are now trending to be roughly flat year-over-year including LinkedIn. Second, we still expect full year operating expenses, including LinkedIn, between $36.4 billion and $36.7 billion. We are confident in this investment, given our significant growth opportunities, consistent execution and strong competitive position. Third, on operating margin we are again trending ahead of our previous guidance. We now expect company operating margin, including LinkedIn, to be slightly up year-over-year. Excluding LinkedIn, company operating margin should improve by more than a point. Fourth, tax rate. Based on our current understanding of the recently enacted tax law, we now expect our effective tax rate for H2 to be 16%, plus or minus 2 points. For FY 2019, we expect our full-year effective tax rate to be slightly below the new U.S. corporate tax rate of 21%, due to the impact of tax law provisions effective for us July 1, 2018. We will continue to have quarterly variability based on the mix of service and license revenue, geographic mix of revenue and the timing of equity vest. Finally, we remain consistent in our ongoing commitment to capital return. As always, we believe the highest shareholder value is created first through organic and inorganic investment to pursue the significant market opportunities ahead and are proud of our resource allocation changes and the results. And, we've been focused on capital return through both dividends and share repurchase as a key part of our commitment to total shareholder return for many years. With the recent tax reform, we can continue that commitment without the need to access the capital markets. Before turning to Q&A, I have one special thank you. Chris Suh is moving to a new role as the senior finance leader of our Azure and Server business. On behalf of the company, thank you for your significant impact on Investor Relations for the past five years. And I'd like to welcome Mike Spencer, the former finance leader of our Office 365 business, as the new Head of Investor Relations. We look forward to having you lead the team. Now, Chris, let's go to Q&A.