Amy Hood
Analyst · Bernstein. Please proceed with your questions
Thanks, and good afternoon, everyone. As Satya shared in Q2 we again made solid progress on our business transformation. We had strong growth in our cloud and subscription businesses, our annuity renewals were healthy as customers remained committed to our enterprise portfolio and our hardware products performed well during the holiday season. As we expected our year-over-year growth rates were impacted by the prior year benefits that we realized in our OEMs and office transactional businesses following the Windows XP end of support refresh cycle. Beyond that, our results in China and Japan fell short of our expectations. In Japan, the PC market lagged due to the macroeconomic environment along with the combined impact of XP end of support and the VAT increase last year. Our Office attach rate to PCs is very high there, so the weak PC market also impacted Office revenue. With that said, let me take you through the financial highlights of our second quarter. Revenue was $26.5 billion up 8% and would have been one point better without the impact of foreign exchange. Gross margin grew slightly this quarter even when comparing against a year ago that benefited from the XP Refresh cycle. Our commitment to ongoing execution improvement and thoughtful folio management helped improve the gross margin percentage in each of our operating segments. Operating income declined 2% which included $243 million of integration and restructuring expenses. Excluding that, operating income grew 1%. Our reported GAAP earnings per share was $0.71, which included $0.02 negative impact from integration and restructuring expense and $0.04 income tax charge for an IRS audit adjustment. Foreign exchange had $0.01 negative impact on EPS. As we discussed last quarter, FX movement first impact of bookings growth and unearned revenue on our balance sheet are contracted but not billed balance was adjusted down to reflect current FX rates. Therefore our bookings were flat this quarter. Unearned revenue was up 9% year-over-year to $21.2 billion, but the sequential decline was slightly larger -- slightly higher than we expected due to the larger than anticipated impact from FX. Adjusting for that FX impact our commercial unearned balance is in line with historical trends and our expectations. From a geographic perspective relative to our expectations the U.S. outperformed in Europe was generally in line. As I mentioned earlier, China and Japan were below our expectations. With that backdrop I will now move to a detailed discussion of our results. Last year we ended support for Windows XP. That simulated a PC Refresh cycle in particular in developed market and with business customers. During the period from Q2 through the end of our fiscal year Windows Pro revenue growth was over 10% and meaningfully outpaced business PC growth. As expected in Q2 PCs have reverted to a more normal live mix between developed and emerging markets and Pro attached Business PCs has returned to the levels we saw prior to FY '14. Also to drive revenue growth in academic institutions we lowered the price of Windows Pro for that customer segment. This pricing change along with the impact of XP caused Windows revenue growth to be lower than the relatively stable business PC market we have seen the end of FY '13. We again grew Window non-Pro licenses and saw year-over-year growth in activations. This was driven by particularly strong demand for opening price point PCs related to the strategic decisions Satya just spoke of earlier. The harbor mix shift opening price point PCs impacted license mix and therefore aggregate revenue per license in the quarter. The mixed shift was the main driver of our Windows non-Pro revenue decline. Inventory in the channel is a bit higher than normal which we expect to work through in Q3. Office consumer products and services revenue declined 12% and was impacted by the ongoing transition to Office 365 and by the dynamics in Japan where PC growth was lower than we expected in a geography where the paid attractive Office is high. Adoption of Office 365 home and personal remained strong and we now have over 9.2 million subscribers. In our computing and gaming segment we are proud of the continued progress we are making in our service portfolio. Strong interest in Surface Pro 3 helped to drive record revenue as well as improved gross margins. Surface Pro 3 volumes are pacing over three times the rate of what we saw for Surface Pro 2. In gaming, Xbox One was the console sales leader in the U.S. Xbox live users grew and those users increased their purchases of third party publisher content and consumables. Sales of the Xbox platform exclusive Halo: The Master Chief Collection and Forza Horizon 2 were strong and this quarter we welcome Minecraft. We articulated our plan for the phone business back in July and we are executing to plan. With our Lumia portfolio of phones we are driving volumes in the low priced device category. We sold 10.5 million Lumia phones this quarter an all-time high. We also sold over 39 million non-Lumia phones even while we make changes to the product portfolio and manage this business for profitability. We are looking forward to bringing new products to market that will showcase the features that we presented at our Windows 10 event last week. Revenue in our devices and consumer other segment grew 30%. As noted earlier, Xbox Live transactions and first party game performed well and contributed to this growth. Additionally, search revenue growth was strong with improvements in both rate and volumes. Within display, revenue declined our MSN portal though we saw revenue growth across other Microsoft properties. We are also pleased by our gross margin expansion in this segment. Transitioning now to our consumer results where revenue grew 5%. Our annuity revenue remained strong growing double-digits and renewal rates remained high. Customers are continuing to move from transactional purchasing to long-term annuity contracts as they showed increased commitment to our product roadmap. Our transactional revenue declined over 15%, slightly more than we expected primarily in Office and mostly due to our performance in China and Japan, which I detailed earlier. Additionally, FX had a greater negative impact on commercial revenue than we had anticipated. Our commercial cloud services delivered triple digit revenue growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. Office 365 continues to be priority for CIOs as both existing and new customers move to the cloud. This transition accelerated with 45% of our renewal season Office moving to the cloud this quarter. We are seeing great growth in revenue from premium Azure services driven by both increasing customer base and an expansion in the number of services that those customers deploy. Within Dynamic CRM Online, customer growth accelerated and revenue nearly doubled. From a product perspective, commercial Office product and services revenue declined 1%, slightly below our expectations. Annuity revenue remained strong with high renewal rates and continued adoption of Office 365. Within our Office transactional business year-on-year comparables are difficult given the benefits from last year's XP Refresh where customers chose to update their desktop productivity solutions along with their PC. Additionally the shift to Office 365 continues to impact transactional revenue. While these dynamics were consistent with our expectations, revenue in China and Japan both fell short given the factors that I noted earlier. Server products and services revenue grew 9%, again outpacing the broader IT markets. Growth in premium mix helped to drive double-digit revenue growth in SQL Server and system center. Windows Server annuity revenue grew double-digits again this quarter. Our transactional revenue was down primarily due to a declining traditional server market. Additionally, we are pleased with the performance in our Dynamics business which grew revenues 13% driven by growth in both on premises and cloud offerings. Operating expense grew 1% to $8.3 billion and was favorable to our expectation. These results are inclusive of investments that we made in our strategic growth areas, a few of which were showcased last week at our Windows 10 event. Excluding approximately $750 million from the addition of NDS operating expense would have declined 8%. Relative to the guidance that we provided for the quarter, roughly half of the favorability resulted from FX changes with the balance driven by our continued prioritization of spend. Our integration and restructuring efforts have been focused on optimizing resources across the company which includes reducing the expense base in our phone business. To date, we have integrated the manufacturing and supply chain teams across Microsoft while also rationalizing our phone manufacturing capacity. In operating expense we committed to reducing $1 billion from the phone cost base which we have done. We continue to look for opportunities to drive further efficiencies. Our effective tax rate was 25% and higher than expected due to previously mentioned income tax charge for an IRS audit adjustment. Beyond that, the increase was driven by the inclusion of phone results and our changing geographic mix. Capital expenditures were $1.5 billion driven primarily by investments to increase our capacity as we expanded existing and added new data centers, as well as made server purchases and support of our fast-growing cloud business. This quarter we increased our capital return by 5% with $4.5 billion returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends and as Satya reinforced in his comments we will continue to take thoughtful steps to increase capital return to shareholders with a focus on value. With that overview of the current quarter, let me now turn to our outlook. Our guidance is based on our current view of FX rates. Should the U.S. dollar strengthen beyond those assumptions as it did this quarter, we would see additional negative impact to earnings, revenue, our balance sheet and our contracted but not billed balance. As a reminder, in our annuity businesses the FX impact is first reflected on our revenue, which is recorded at rate when the contract is billed, then revenue comes onto the P&L at that same rate as it is recognized, generally over the next year. Therefore in Q3 we will start to recognize a higher percentage of revenue from periods with a stronger U.S. dollar than the prior-year comparison. In total, we expect that FX will negatively impact revenue growth by approximately four points in Q3. The majority of this impact is in our commercial business. In FY '14 it was our Q2 through Q4 results that most benefited from Windows XP end of support. As such, our growth rates across Windows Pro and transactional Office will be impacted as our business moves back to pre-XP levels. On a geographic basis, we expect year-on-year revenue declines in China, Russia and Japan. In Japan Q3 represents an even tougher comparison with the anniversary of the VAT, which again will create different comparables, difficult comparables in Windows and Office. We currently expect that these geographic dynamics, challenging comparables from XP and FX headwinds will be in place throughout the remainder of our fiscal year. With that overall background, let me move to our specific Q3 guidance starting with devices and consumer. Our revenue guidance includes approximately four points of drag from FX. In licensing we expect revenue to be $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion. This range seems the more challenging comparables I mentioned earlier. The range also includes a reduction in channel inventory for Windows non-Pro opening price point PCs. Within consumer Office we expect to see similar trends to Q2 and within our IP licensing business we expect lower per unit royalties with the changing mix of devices filled by our licensees. In computing and gaming we expect revenue to be $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion. This range reflects normal seasonality coming out of the holidays for our Xbox and Surface businesses. In phone hardware we expect revenue to be $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This range anticipates accelerating year-over-year growth in Lumia units driven by our affordable smartphone devices. We also expect both volumes and ASPs of non-Lumia devices to continue to decline in Q3. With this lower aggregate revenue base, we expect gross margins, which include non-cash amortization to be lower for the next couple of quarters. In devices and consumer other, we expect revenue to be about $2 billion reflecting continued progress in key areas like Office 365 Home and Personal, Xbox Live and Search. In our commercial business we expect our significant momentum in annuity and commercial cloud services to continue. Within our commercial licensing segment we expect revenue to be $9.7 billion to $9.9 billion. In addition to the factors that I discussed, which impact our year-over-year comparability, we anticipate a four-point drag from FX. In Commercial Other, we expect revenue to be $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Even after considering the impact of FX, growth will remain robust with expected momentum across our commercial cloud portfolio, Office 365 Azure and CRM Online and in corporate, we don't expect any revenue impact. As we continue to work towards the launch of Windows 10, we will share additional detailed information regarding any accounting impacts from the Windows 10 free upgrade offer and Windows as a service. I would like to reiterate that our OEM royalty model, which is paid upfront will remain in place. We expect COGS to be $7.1 billion to $7.4 billion with variability driven by both hardware segments. We expect third-quarter operating expense to be $8.2 billion to $8.4 billion. We are lowering our full-year guidance to $33.2 billion to $33.6 billion which reduces full-year growth including NDS to 4% to 5%. Our Q3 plans include investments in advertising and customer facing roles to continue to accelerate our momentum with commercial products such as SQL and the cloud. These investments are a direct result of prioritization decisions made during first half. Over the remainder of the fiscal year we expect to incur an additional $200 million of restructuring expense. This results in total charges of roughly $1.4 billion which is lower than our previous guidance. Separately, we still expect integration expense of $100 million per quarter for the remainder of the fiscal year. As a reminder, other income and expense includes dividend and interest income offset by interest expense and the net cost of hedging. Given the current FX environment, we expect other income and expense to be negative $100 million in Q3. We now expect our full year tax rate to be between 22% and 24%, this includes the Q2 income tax charge for an IRS audit adjustment as well as the changing geographic mix of our business. In Q3 we expect CapEx to sequentially increase in support of our growing cloud business. Unearned revenue will continue to benefit from customers moving to our subscription services and high contract renewal rates. We expect to see low single-digit sequential decline in our unearned for Q3 which includes one point drag from FX as new billings will reflect the impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar. Our commercial unearned balance will follow recent historical seasonality when adjusted for FX. In closing, this quarter was another example of the progress that we are making across this company. Our execution continues to improve and we are making data-driven decisions to improve more investments both shorter-term as you have seen in our marketing and sales adjustments as well as for the longer-term as we adjust our product portfolio. There are certainly short-term comparability challenges as we anniversary last year's XP Refresh cycle and see the impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar, but we are confident in the underlying health of our business out of the significant innovation we are funding within our prioritized operating budgets and excited to continue gaining share in key strategic markets. Before I hand it back over to Chris, I would like to announce that we will be webcasting a briefing for the investor community on April 29, in conjunction with our Build Developer Conference in San Francisco. We will share more details as we get closer to the date. With that, I will turn it back over to Chris and we can move to Q&A.